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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Weber Watch
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jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jul 20 @ 9:11 AM ET
It's the term that is not good for them. They offered 7M to Rinne, I'm sure they're willing to give 7.8M to Weber who's more useful.

I agree, it's still a tuff call for them, but if I were in their shoes, I would match. Just can't lose Weber without seriously damaging the fan base.

And as a Habs fan, I want them to match

- Habs Rule

see my post in response to you. Signing him JUST to reach the cap floor would be terrible.
sulshawn
Joined: 07.28.2008

Jul 20 @ 9:11 AM ET
Weber will be a Flyer next Wednesday. Zero chance Holmgren tries to make 3 blockbuster moves and goes 0-3. Already lost out on Parise and Suter while offering them the most money, not a chance in the world Nashville is able to match this contract, especially with uncertainty ahead on the labor front.

Book it!

- PLindbergh31



I think Weber was his #1 target. I think he was fairly certain Parise wasn't going to leave NJ and go to an Atlantic Division rival and Suter's camp said he wasn't interested in the EC. I think Homer made those offers to drive up the price of other teams.
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

Jul 20 @ 9:12 AM ET
Funny seeing a bunch of fans comming up with all kinds of stuff to convince each other that Weber is coming over. Don't get me wrong, I would do the same and be as excited, but as an outsider here with more realism, sorry, but Nashville will match for sure. Your 4 late 1st rounders are far from enough to not match the offer.

They'll find the 27M for the 1st year, no problem. Weber will just cost way less after that every year that goes buy. It's not that complicated, it's just shifting money around at the cost of some interest, which is not that much in their global budget. Just takes an accountant to bring back people to reality.

- Habs Rule


The problem is how are the going to find 122 million in 6 years. thats more than 20 million a year average on two player. Their ticket sales were only 26 million. THey had a loss of 8 million last year. What are they going to pay the rest of the team with Monopoly money. Also add to the fact that there might be a short season or no season at all then that 26 million loss is huge for a small market team.
sheerrw
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newtown, PA
Joined: 09.29.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:12 AM ET
Funny seeing a bunch of fans comming up with all kinds of stuff to convince each other that Weber is coming over. Don't get me wrong, I would do the same and be as excited, but as an outsider here with more realism, sorry, but Nashville will match for sure. Your 4 late 1st rounders are far from enough to not match the offer.

They'll find the 27M for the 1st year, no problem. Weber will just cost way less after that every year that goes buy. It's not that complicated, it's just shifting money around at the cost of some interest, which is not that much in their global budget. Just takes an accountant to bring back people to reality.

- Habs Rule


Weber won't cost "way less" for another 10 years. By the time he's getting paid $3 million and $1 million in salary he will be 37--or as old as Pronger is now.
Habs Rule
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Montreal
Joined: 07.05.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:12 AM ET
There is huge difference between needing to reach the cap floor and resigning weber to reach the cap floor.

Weber's cap hit is 7.8 mil. They would be paying him 26 mil however in that first year. The team is currently just over 14 mil under the limit. That would mean they would still need another (roughly) 6 mill get get compliant . So you are talking 32 million in players that are currently not signed to the team. On top of that you have 40.9 mil on current roster players (1.7 in buyouts).... So they would be looking at spending 73 mill on players THIS SEASON... and thats just to reach the cap floor.

If they DIDNT match and sign Weber.. they could spend 7.8 mil and reach the floor, and save 19 million.

- jak521


Only temporarely. Weber will cost less in future years. Financing 19M at 5% is 1M per year, and decreasing over time. For me, that's what it is, an extra 1M per year to keep Weber. Losing Weber = losing more than 1M in revenues probably, so decision is not that tuff. As I said, I would match being Nashville owner. Just can't lose Weber.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:12 AM ET
This is all in terms of gentleman's agreement.
- psoneill


Yes, the first step would have to be not matching, and then completing the trade afterwards. They could also use those picks to trade with out teams.

Also, if they don't match, it would give Gary Bettman an interesting argument in the CBA talks.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jul 20 @ 9:12 AM ET
This is all in terms of gentleman's agreement.
- psoneill

one of my favorite quotes..

"A gentleman is simply a patient wolf."

Homer was patient... very patient. Then he lost his patience and went full blown wolf. Why change that now.
sulshawn
Joined: 07.28.2008

Jul 20 @ 9:12 AM ET
Exactly. If Philly wants Weber they are going to pay for him. This forces Nashville to solely deal with them and sets a deadline but Philly isn't getting Weber without giving up someone who will sell tickets (Schenn or Couturier really the 2 options).

I could see Schenn, Simmonds, and Meszaros for Weber being OK on both sides.

Else Nashville just matches and bites the bullet.

- psoneill



It's possible both Schenn Brothers could be traded to Nashville for 2 first round picks.
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:13 AM ET
It's the term that is not good for them. They offered 7M to Rinne, I'm sure they're willing to give 7.8M to Weber who's more useful.

I agree, it's still a tuff call for them, but if I were in their shoes, I would match. Just can't lose Weber without seriously damaging the fan base.

And as a Habs fan, I want them to match

- Habs Rule

ah, the real reason behind your argument
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jul 20 @ 9:13 AM ET
I think Weber was his #1 target. I think he was fairly certain Parise wasn't going to leave NJ and go to an Atlantic Division rival and Suter's camp said he wasn't interested in the EC. I think Homer made those offers to drive up the price of other teams.
- sulshawn


You don't offer guys 100+ million dollar contracts just to try and keep them away from other teams. Flyers had a ton of interest in both players. To extend those type of contract offers you are making a huge commitment. What if both players would have accepted the Flyers offers?
stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

Jul 20 @ 9:14 AM ET
It does not change the fact that Nash as to reach the cap floor, and need some gig contracts to reach it. The always wanted to pay Weber 7.8M per year, that is not an issue for them. It's the 27M in the first year, but financed at 5%, that's an extra 1M per year, which Mr. Weber is worth plenty. I'm a CPA and know my finances well and trust me here, people are making this a tuff financial decision, but it is not at all. Weber is the face of their franchise, revenues will go down even more if he leaves. Nash can't afford to let him go both hockey and financially wise. It's really a no brainer decision and Philly as proviedd Mr. Weber to Nash for 7.8M per year. Not sure Nash is that upset about it.
- Habs Rule


If it was that simple and easy they would of matched already.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:16 AM ET
If it was that simple and easy they would of matched already.
- stveshdy


It is possible that the Preds have decided and are just letting the Flyers twist in the wind for seven days, and possibly keep them out of talks for Doan, Ryan or Nash.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jul 20 @ 9:16 AM ET
Only temporarely. Weber will cost less in future years. Financing 19M at 5% is 1M per year, and decreasing over time. For me, that's what it is, an extra 1M per year to keep Weber. Losing Weber = losing more than 1M in revenues probably, so decision is not that tuff. As I said, I would match being Nashville owner. Just can't lose Weber.
- Habs Rule

You are talking about 64 mill in the first 6 years. How can they afford that, combined with the 42 mill that Rinne will make (106 mill combined) and still be competitive. Say they continue with ticket sales at the same rate (26 mil per year)..

26x6= 156.. that means over 6 years they will have spent over 2/3 of ticket sales on TWO players. That is simply impossible to do and still stay afloat
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

Jul 20 @ 9:16 AM ET
It's possible both Schenn Brothers could be traded to Nashville for 2 first round picks.
- sulshawn

pff only two first rounder try 3 or 4.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:17 AM ET
one of my favorite quotes..

"A gentleman is simply a patient wolf."

Homer was patient... very patient. Then he lost his patience and went full blown wolf. Why change that now.

- jak521


I think that when he made his last trade offer and threatened to sheet Weber, and Poile demanded Schenn AND Couturier, Holmgren said well, let's see you match this.
sheerrw
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newtown, PA
Joined: 09.29.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:17 AM ET
Only temporarely. Weber will cost less in future years. Financing 19M at 5% is 1M per year, and decreasing over time. For me, that's what it is, an extra 1M per year to keep Weber. Losing Weber = losing more than 1M in revenues probably, so decision is not that tuff. As I said, I would match being Nashville owner. Just can't lose Weber.
- Habs Rule


The only problem with that theory is that the Preds actually need to find someone to lend them enough to cover the salary, and do so by next week. In reality I think it comes down to whether one or more of the owners is willing to personally pony up the dough to keep the team competitive in the short term instead of rebuilding.
sulshawn
Joined: 07.28.2008

Jul 20 @ 9:17 AM ET
You don't offer guys 100+ million dollar contracts just to try and keep them away from other teams. Flyers had a ton of interest in both players. To extend those type of contract offers you are making a huge commitment. What if both players would have accepted the Flyers offers?
- PLindbergh31


I think they had interest for sure in both of them but didn't think it was realistic to land both of them, especially Suter. I think the Flyers would have been happy with those players but really didn't think it was possible to land both. Similarly to when they put offers to Briere, Drury, and Gomez years ago. They knew they weren't going to sign all 3- I think with Pairse/Suter they would have preferred Parise but realized getting both wasn't realistic.
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

Jul 20 @ 9:17 AM ET
You are talking about 64 mill in the first 6 years. How can they afford that, combined with the 42 mill that Rinne will make (106 mill combined) and still be competitive. Say they continue with ticket sales at the same rate (26 mil per year)..

26x6= 156.. that means over 6 years they will have spent over 2/3 of ticket sales on TWO players. That is simply impossible to do and still stay afloat

- jak521


26 mill was the highest mind you. Im sure that will take a hit when the team cant afford to add quality players around those two.
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:17 AM ET
It's possible both Schenn Brothers could be traded to Nashville for 2 first round picks.
- sulshawn

very possible...
stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

Jul 20 @ 9:18 AM ET
It is possible that the Preds have decided and are just letting the Flyers twist in the wind for seven days, and possibly keep them out of talks for Doan, Ryan or Nash.
- Jsaquella


I think it's in the best interest to their fans to let them know I Weber will be back, why make those people wait on their franchise player?
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

Jul 20 @ 9:18 AM ET
I think that when he made his last trade offer and threatened to sheet Weber, and Poile demanded Schenn AND Couturier, Holmgren said well, let's see you match this.
- Jsaquella


LOL....
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jul 20 @ 9:18 AM ET
I think that when he made his last trade offer and threatened to sheet Weber, and Poile demanded Schenn AND Couturier, Holmgren said well, let's see you match this.
- Jsaquella

There isnt a single GM in the league I would rather have... or owner for that matter. Cup or no Cup.. these two have shown that they are the most willing to do what it needs to win.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:18 AM ET
26 mill was the highest mind you. Im sure that will take a hit when the team cant afford to add quality players around those two.
- Philly1980


If there's a lockout, that $26mm will be less, regardless.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jul 20 @ 9:19 AM ET
26 mill was the highest mind you. Im sure that will take a hit when the team cant afford to add quality players around those two.
- Philly1980

Exactly.. I was doing the best case scenario thing.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:19 AM ET
There isnt a single GM in the league I would rather have... or owner for that matter. Cup or no Cup.. these two have shown that they are the most willing to do what it needs to win.
- jak521


I love that they will do whatever it takes to win. Sometimes that blind ambition leads to questionable decisions, but I never question the desire to win
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