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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Weber Watch
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vejim
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: FL
Joined: 07.08.2007

Jul 20 @ 8:51 AM ET
great blob bill...
have a good friday everyone...

- phi1671

cheers and enjoy
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 20 @ 8:52 AM ET
That would be a reallly tough move to make cap wise I would think... but then again.. I suck at thinking.
- jak521


Say they trade Voracek and Grossmann-off the top of my head not a serious suggestion-That creates room to add a FA or trade for a winger.
section32
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Raleigh, NC
Joined: 02.15.2007

Jul 20 @ 8:52 AM ET
Who was the other?
- jak521

Scott Stevens
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Jul 20 @ 8:52 AM ET
Uh, Nashville's ticket revenue from last season, counting playoffs, is less than $27mm. This is also a team that reportedly lost around $7mm last year, despite being a playoff team. Toss in that there could well be a lockout, which would reduce or eliminate ticket revenue, and it's a very difficult decision.

As far as their international budget, lockout or not, they will still have to scout games across the world. Obviously the CHL, Elite leagues and other leagues would be playing hockey, and the Preds will still need to scout them and that costs money.

As a purely hockey decision, it's a no brainer. You don't lose a guy who is one of the best defensemen in the NHL for draft choices. Unfortunately for the Preds it's not a hockey decision any longer.

I think it's 50-50 that they match. I'd be OK with either decision. I liked the core of this Flyers team before the offer sheet, and I will like it without adding Shea Weber. Obviously, I'd love to add a guy like Weber, on the other hand.

- Jsaquella


no you wouldn't. like everyone here youd be bitterly disappointed if we were this close to weber and missed out.
Habs Rule
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Montreal
Joined: 07.05.2006

Jul 20 @ 8:56 AM ET
Uh, Nashville's ticket revenue from last season, counting playoffs, is less than $27mm. This is also a team that reportedly lost around $7mm last year, despite being a playoff team. Toss in that there could well be a lockout, which would reduce or eliminate ticket revenue, and it's a very difficult decision.

As far as their international budget, lockout or not, they will still have to scout games across the world. Obviously the CHL, Elite leagues and other leagues would be playing hockey, and the Preds will still need to scout them and that costs money.

As a purely hockey decision, it's a no brainer. You don't lose a guy who is one of the best defensemen in the NHL for draft choices. Unfortunately for the Preds it's not a hockey decision any longer.

I think it's 50-50 that they match. I'd be OK with either decision. I liked the core of this Flyers team before the offer sheet, and I will like it without adding Shea Weber. Obviously, I'd love to add a guy like Weber, on the other hand.

- Jsaquella


It does not change the fact that Nash as to reach the cap floor, and need some gig contracts to reach it. The always wanted to pay Weber 7.8M per year, that is not an issue for them. It's the 27M in the first year, but financed at 5%, that's an extra 1M per year, which Mr. Weber is worth plenty. I'm a CPA and know my finances well and trust me here, people are making this a tuff financial decision, but it is not at all. Weber is the face of their franchise, revenues will go down even more if he leaves. Nash can't afford to let him go both hockey and financially wise. It's really a no brainer decision and Philly as proviedd Mr. Weber to Nash for 7.8M per year. Not sure Nash is that upset about it.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jul 20 @ 8:56 AM ET
Say they trade Voracek and Grossmann-off the top of my head not a serious suggestion-That creates room to add a FA or trade for a winger.
- Jsaquella

this is true.. I guess I am just not thrilled to see this team changed YET again, especially considering how excited I was to see this teams future together. The other saving grace is that next years UFA group is very nice... so do some patch work and go big next year? Ugh.. I hate thinking like this.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 20 @ 8:57 AM ET
no you wouldn't. like everyone here youd be bitterly disappointed if we were this close to weber and missed out.
- isaiah520


I'd be disappointed, but it wouldn't be bitter. I know full well that Nashville could match and have prepared myself for it.

I said prior to the move that I'd be fine starting the season with the team they had. I meant it, and still feel that way. Adding Weber would be great, especially if it ended up costing 4 picks. But it's not a done deal, so there's zero reason to think that it is.
fnmjoe13
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: The Farm, NJ
Joined: 10.16.2009

Jul 20 @ 8:57 AM ET
Any chance any of the prospects make the team if we "trade" Voracek or any of our other forwards? Cousins? Laughton? Not up to speed on their development.
sulshawn
Joined: 07.28.2008

Jul 20 @ 8:58 AM ET
Agreed. You can't just toss a player after paying $27 MM for 1 season.
If what they are saying about the new minority owner being "able"
to afford it is true, it still doesn't necessarily mean that they should do
it from a business sense.

- section32


I agree with that. If Nashville matches andsomethings happens in Nashville where things really get sour and Weber must be traded, it limits the return in July 2013 while being out $27 million for 1 player
psoneill
Joined: 05.29.2009

Jul 20 @ 9:00 AM ET
If Nashville ends up giving up Shea Weber then Philly fans aren't going to be happy with what goes back in their agreement. At least one of Couturier or Schenn and one of Coburn or Mesz is headed back, that is just common sense. Poile will back down a little, but not that much. We are talkinf about Weber here, Nashville can match it but it wouldn't be smart. They know that and are probably willing to negotiate if Philly wants the best D-man in the league, but it won't be for scraps.
Hextall271
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ersson-Ville, NB, NB
Joined: 01.18.2007

Jul 20 @ 9:00 AM ET
If Voracek goes, they can sign Semin, or pursue another trade
- Jsaquella


Ok. I guess what concerns me is I really liked V's progress last year and think he's just going to get better. Having said that, if it gets us Weber, the only guys I don't trade are Cooter Roo and Schenn.

Of note.. I read yesterday that Nash wanted to include Giroux in the disucussion.. I suspect 5 mins later the offer sheet was dropped.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:02 AM ET
It does not change the fact that Nash as to reach the cap floor, and need some gig contracts to reach it. The always wanted to pay Weber 7.8M per year, that is not an issue for them. It's the 27M in the first year, but financed at 5%, that's an extra 1M per year, which Mr. Weber is worth plenty. I'm a CPA and know my finances well and trust me here, people are making this a tuff financial decision, but it is not at all. Weber is the face of their franchise, revenues will go down even more if he leaves. Nash can't afford to let him go both hockey and financially wise. It's really a no brainer decision and Philly as proviedd Mr. Weber to Nash for 7.8M per year. Not sure Nash is that upset about it.
- Habs Rule


If they always were willing to pay Weber $7.8mm a year, why not offer it to him last year, avoid arbitration and make it easier to keep Ryan Suter?

As I said, I wouldn't be surprised to see them match it, but based on reports, a team already losing money may not be able to handle taking on a deal that would cost more in the first year then they made in ticket revenue all of last year.

Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:03 AM ET
If Nashville ends up giving up Shea Weber then Philly fans aren't going to be happy with what goes back in their agreement. At least one of Couturier or Schenn and one of Coburn or Mesz is headed back, that is just common sense. Poile will back down a little, but not that much. We are talkinf about Weber here, Nashville can match it but it wouldn't be smart. They know that and are probably willing to negotiate if Philly wants the best D-man in the league, but it won't be for scraps.
- psoneill


If the Flyers were willing to trade either Couturier or Schenn, then there wouldn't have been an offer sheet.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jul 20 @ 9:04 AM ET
It does not change the fact that Nash as to reach the cap floor, and need some gig contracts to reach it. The always wanted to pay Weber 7.8M per year, that is not an issue for them. It's the 27M in the first year, but financed at 5%, that's an extra 1M per year, which Mr. Weber is worth plenty. I'm a CPA and know my finances well and trust me here, people are making this a tuff financial decision, but it is not at all. Weber is the face of their franchise, revenues will go down even more if he leaves. Nash can't afford to let him go both hockey and financially wise. It's really a no brainer decision and Philly as proviedd Mr. Weber to Nash for 7.8M per year. Not sure Nash is that upset about it.
- Habs Rule

There is huge difference between needing to reach the cap floor and resigning weber to reach the cap floor.

Weber's cap hit is 7.8 mil. They would be paying him 26 mil however in that first year. The team is currently just over 14 mil under the limit. That would mean they would still need another (roughly) 6 mill get get compliant . So you are talking 32 million in players that are currently not signed to the team. On top of that you have 40.9 mil on current roster players (1.7 in buyouts).... So they would be looking at spending 73 mill on players THIS SEASON... and thats just to reach the cap floor.

If they DIDNT match and sign Weber.. they could spend 7.8 mil and reach the floor, and save 19 million.
sheerrw
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newtown, PA
Joined: 09.29.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:04 AM ET
Doubt they would take Lilja. I understand they need to reach the cap floor, but they need everyday contributors.

As for Schenn.. if he doesnt play 25 minutes in his first game, he misses out on that bonus, I believe.

- jak521


I figure Lilja fills a roster spot and might attract interest around the deadline. If not, he's gone at the end of the year. He is of limited value to the Preds, but really no value to the Flyers unless they give up a d-man on the roster plus Bourdon or Gusty.

Unless you're talking about L Schenn, I'm confused. I thought $2 million or so of B Schenn's bonus only gets paid if he plays all 82 games?
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:04 AM ET
Ok. I guess what concerns me is I really liked V's progress last year and think he's just going to get better. Having said that, if it gets us Weber, the only guys I don't trade are Cooter Roo and Schenn.

Of note.. I read yesterday that Nash wanted to include Giroux in the disucussion.. I suspect 5 mins later the offer sheet was dropped.

- Hextall271


To get Weber, I'd be fine with moving Voracek. I'd even be OK if it cost an "untouchable" one.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 20 @ 9:05 AM ET
I would prefer the flyers keep Vorachek but with the one year deal thing going on and he isn't signed yet I suspect that he goes if a trade package is put together. I would rather that the flyers trade Read than Chekky but cap implications may make it unlikely.
Mez and Bourdon are likely gone, for Weber I say thanks for your services guys.
I wouldn't sent more than 1 first rounder if players are involved. Mez, Bourdon, Vorachek, Cousins, 2015 first rounder. Take that or Weber can play in Nashville. It's really that simple.

- bird_dog


I think Voracek is a prime candidate for an offer sheet.
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jul 20 @ 9:05 AM ET
Weber will be a Flyer next Wednesday. Zero chance Holmgren tries to make 3 blockbuster moves and goes 0-3. Already lost out on Parise and Suter while offering them the most money, not a chance in the world Nashville is able to match this contract, especially with uncertainty ahead on the labor front.

Book it!
psoneill
Joined: 05.29.2009

Jul 20 @ 9:05 AM ET
It does not change the fact that Nash as to reach the cap floor, and need some gig contracts to reach it. The always wanted to pay Weber 7.8M per year, that is not an issue for them. It's the 27M in the first year, but financed at 5%, that's an extra 1M per year, which Mr. Weber is worth plenty. I'm a CPA and know my finances well and trust me here, people are making this a tuff financial decision, but it is not at all. Weber is the face of their franchise, revenues will go down even more if he leaves. Nash can't afford to let him go both hockey and financially wise. It's really a no brainer decision and Philly as proviedd Mr. Weber to Nash for 7.8M per year. Not sure Nash is that upset about it.
- Habs Rule


Exactly. If Philly wants Weber they are going to pay for him. This forces Nashville to solely deal with them and sets a deadline but Philly isn't getting Weber without giving up someone who will sell tickets (Schenn or Couturier really the 2 options).

I could see Schenn, Simmonds, and Meszaros for Weber being OK on both sides.

Else Nashville just matches and bites the bullet.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:07 AM ET
Exactly. If Philly wants Weber they are going to pay for him. This forces Nashville to solely deal with them and sets a deadline but Philly isn't getting Weber without giving up someone who will sell tickets (Schenn or Couturier really the 2 options).

I could see Schenn, Simmonds, and Meszaros for Weber being OK on both sides.

Else Nashville just matches and bites the bullet.

- psoneill


It would actually have to be players for other assets. Weber himself can not be traded to any team, including the Flyers.
sulshawn
Joined: 07.28.2008

Jul 20 @ 9:08 AM ET
It does not change the fact that Nash as to reach the cap floor, and need some gig contracts to reach it. The always wanted to pay Weber 7.8M per year, that is not an issue for them. It's the 27M in the first year, but financed at 5%, that's an extra 1M per year, which Mr. Weber is worth plenty. I'm a CPA and know my finances well and trust me here, people are making this a tuff financial decision, but it is not at all. Weber is the face of their franchise, revenues will go down even more if he leaves. Nash can't afford to let him go both hockey and financially wise. It's really a no brainer decision and Philly as proviedd Mr. Weber to Nash for 7.8M per year. Not sure Nash is that upset about it.
- Habs Rule


I get the financial part of it but why did Nashville go through all this when they could have saved themselves a lot of money in the next 11 months if they put an 8 year/$64 million or 10 year/$80 million contract offer to Weber before this happened.
Habs Rule
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Montreal
Joined: 07.05.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:08 AM ET
If they always were willing to pay Weber $7.8mm a year, why not offer it to him last year, avoid arbitration and make it easier to keep Ryan Suter?

As I said, I wouldn't be surprised to see them match it, but based on reports, a team already losing money may not be able to handle taking on a deal that would cost more in the first year then they made in ticket revenue all of last year.

- Jsaquella


It's the term that is not good for them. They offered 7M to Rinne, I'm sure they're willing to give 7.8M to Weber who's more useful.

I agree, it's still a tuff call for them, but if I were in their shoes, I would match. Just can't lose Weber without seriously damaging the fan base.

And as a Habs fan, I want them to match
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jul 20 @ 9:10 AM ET
I think Voracek is a prime candidate for an offer sheet.
- spatso

That if he is interested in leaving the Flyers...
psoneill
Joined: 05.29.2009

Jul 20 @ 9:10 AM ET
It would actually have to be players for other assets. Weber himself can not be traded to any team, including the Flyers.
- Jsaquella


This is all in terms of gentleman's agreement.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 20 @ 9:10 AM ET
It's the term that is not good for them. They offered 7M to Rinne, I'm sure they're willing to give 7.8M to Weber who's more useful.

I agree, it's still a tuff call for them, but if I were in their shoes, I would match. Just can't lose Weber without seriously damaging the fan base.

And as a Habs fan, I want them to match

- Habs Rule


That's all I'm saying, it's a tough decision. If it were solely a hockey decision, I feel they would match without a doubt. I still think it's very possible that they do match.

I'm not a guy that ran out and got me a Weber jersey
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