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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Weber Watch
Author Message
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Jul 20 @ 8:34 AM ET
i still think nashville matches but i have been wrong before.now i have done my part to get to 2000
- richiewinthecup

w/o a trade, I think they'll match too
sheerrw
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newtown, PA
Joined: 09.29.2006

Jul 20 @ 8:34 AM ET
Never... Timonen wants to win a cup... probably more so than most players.
- jak521


I guess that's for the best then. Hopefully they would still take Lilja as a throw in, that $750k would help re-sign Jake if he's not moved.

On a related note--is Schenn going to start in the minors again this year so that his cap hit drops by $2 million?
vejim
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: FL
Joined: 07.08.2007

Jul 20 @ 8:34 AM ET
if this transaction can be completed with the flyers not giving up Coburn, Coots or the Schenn bros then I think its a win.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jul 20 @ 8:37 AM ET
This is well orchestrated. Holm green gives offer sheet. Weber signs. Weber's entourage announces how excited he is to possibly go to Philly. Holm green goes back to Nashville and says...look, I will sweeten the deal with x, y, and z.
Poile can save face and the Preds don't look like they can't afford to match because they stuck to there guns and got something for a player that no longer wanted to be in town.

OR Nashville matches putting the teams future ability to sign quality players into question. They lost $7.5 MM last year. Their gross ticket sales only equal what the first year of this deal is paying. This is NOT a smart deal for them to match which is exactly what Homer is counting on. But Poile is his bud and he can turn it into a win win...albeit completely contrived and orchestrated to the Flyers advantage.

- section32

I absolutely understand it from a buddy to buddy deal... But for all we know Poile is fed up with ownership. For all we know he has wanted to work out a deal time and time again, but ownership wouldnt give him the needed money; the ok to go ahead.

What is the goal in the NHL? For the team, players, coaches? Win a cup! For ownership? MAKE MONEY.

I understand how its a forced trade, but I dont believe Nashville will match it. If they cant (and wont) match, why trade away very good young players when you dont have to?
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 20 @ 8:37 AM ET
It's amazing that this will be the second time Poile has faced losing a franchise defenseman as a RFA.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jul 20 @ 8:38 AM ET
I guess that's for the best then. Hopefully they would still take Lilja as a throw in, that $750k would help re-sign Jake if he's not moved.

On a related note--is Schenn going to start in the minors again this year so that his cap hit drops by $2 million?

- sheerrw

Doubt they would take Lilja. I understand they need to reach the cap floor, but they need everyday contributors.

As for Schenn.. if he doesnt play 25 minutes in his first game, he misses out on that bonus, I believe.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jul 20 @ 8:39 AM ET
It's amazing that this will be the second time Poile has faced losing a franchise defenseman as a RFA.
- Jsaquella

Who was the other?
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jul 20 @ 8:39 AM ET
if this transaction can be completed with the flyers not giving up Coburn, Coots or the Schenn bros then I think its a win.
- vejim

Part of me gets that, but what if all we ended giving up was 4 firsts?

section32
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Raleigh, NC
Joined: 02.15.2007

Jul 20 @ 8:40 AM ET
So Weber is the only way to get that accomplished? I just don't understand the "save face" sentiment. Homer tried to get trades accomplished. He tried. Poile put himself in a bad spot.. and Homer capitalized on him...

"A gentleman is simply a patient wolf."

- jak521

It is save face from more than 1 perspective. It allows him to not have to match by getting more assets than just 4 1st round picks. And it also allows Nashville not to have to back up the "we will match any offer" statement without having to show whether they actually could.

This maintains a good relationship that has yielded many good trade opportunities.
eayost
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Into the Void, PA
Joined: 04.14.2010

Jul 20 @ 8:41 AM ET
Who was the other?
- jak521


Scott Stevens
Habs Rule
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Montreal
Joined: 07.05.2006

Jul 20 @ 8:41 AM ET
Funny seeing a bunch of fans comming up with all kinds of stuff to convince each other that Weber is coming over. Don't get me wrong, I would do the same and be as excited, but as an outsider here with more realism, sorry, but Nashville will match for sure. Your 4 late 1st rounders are far from enough to not match the offer.

They'll find the 27M for the 1st year, no problem. Weber will just cost way less after that every year that goes buy. It's not that complicated, it's just shifting money around at the cost of some interest, which is not that much in their global budget. Just takes an accountant to bring back people to reality.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 20 @ 8:41 AM ET
Who was the other?
- jak521


Scott Stevens
Hextall271
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ersson-Ville, NB, NB
Joined: 01.18.2007

Jul 20 @ 8:42 AM ET
Something along the lines of Voracek, Meszaros, Marc-Andre Bourdon and two or three of the four first-round picks staying with Nashville in exchange for not matching Weber offer sheet and sending one/two of the first round picks back.

The Predators could probably have extracted a higher price in trade if they hadn't waited so long, but the above would still be a good return under the circumstances.

- bmeltzer


Bill if Voracek goes, what do we dofor wingers.. I mean we alreadylost JVR and Jags? To get Weber I guess you do it.. but we'll have to sign a forward IMO.
isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Jul 20 @ 8:43 AM ET
I absolutely understand it from a buddy to buddy deal... But for all we know Poile is fed up with ownership. For all we know he has wanted to work out a deal time and time again, but ownership wouldnt give him the needed money; the ok to go ahead.

What is the goal in the NHL? For the team, players, coaches? Win a cup! For ownership? MAKE MONEY.

I understand how its a forced trade, but I dont believe Nashville will match it. If they cant (and wont) match, why trade away very good young players when you dont have to?

- jak521

given they lost suter and they had momentum enuf to be considered a cup contender last yr, I see them matching w/o a trade. otherwise, they are in rebuild mode and the franchise will lose as much at the gate and may not be viable in that mkt L-T anyway.

also, given the way homer gravitates toward the cap ceiling, letting go of some 2nd tier talent shouldn't be a killer. sure would like to have JVR as a piece to move though...
section32
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Raleigh, NC
Joined: 02.15.2007

Jul 20 @ 8:43 AM ET
I absolutely understand it from a buddy to buddy deal... But for all we know Poile is fed up with ownership. For all we know he has wanted to work out a deal time and time again, but ownership wouldnt give him the needed money; the ok to go ahead.

What is the goal in the NHL? For the team, players, coaches? Win a cup! For ownership? MAKE MONEY.

I understand how its a forced trade, but I dont believe Nashville will match it. If they cant (and wont) match, why trade away very good young players when you dont have to?

- jak521

Because we don't KNOW that they can't or won't and we WANT this player or we wouldn't be offering $27 MM in 1 year. Sweeten the deal and get it done.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jul 20 @ 8:43 AM ET
It is save face from more than 1 perspective. It allows him to not have to match by getting more assets than just 4 1st round picks. And it also allows Nashville not to have to back up the "we will match any offer" statement without having to show whether they actually could.

This maintains a good relationship that has yielded many good trade opportunities.

- section32

Sorry, but i honestly believe the minute Homer offered that OS and Weber signed... we ended our good working relationship. We burned them big time, and they wont forget it.

I honestly dont think giving them JV, and Meszy will let us continue our good trading relationships.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jul 20 @ 8:44 AM ET
Scott Stevens
- Jsaquella

poop! Didnt know that.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 20 @ 8:48 AM ET
Funny seeing a bunch of fans comming up with all kinds of stuff to convince each other that Weber is coming over. Don't get me wrong, I would do the same and be as excited, but as an outsider here with more realism, sorry, but Nashville will match for sure. Your 4 late 1st rounders are far from enough to not match the offer.

They'll find the 27M for the 1st year, no problem. Weber will just cost way less after that every year that goes buy. It's not that complicated, it's just shifting money around at the cost of some interest, which is not that much in their global budget. Just takes an accountant to bring back people to reality.

- Habs Rule


Uh, Nashville's ticket revenue from last season, counting playoffs, is less than $27mm. This is also a team that reportedly lost around $7mm last year, despite being a playoff team. Toss in that there could well be a lockout, which would reduce or eliminate ticket revenue, and it's a very difficult decision.

As far as their international budget, lockout or not, they will still have to scout games across the world. Obviously the CHL, Elite leagues and other leagues would be playing hockey, and the Preds will still need to scout them and that costs money.

As a purely hockey decision, it's a no brainer. You don't lose a guy who is one of the best defensemen in the NHL for draft choices. Unfortunately for the Preds it's not a hockey decision any longer.

I think it's 50-50 that they match. I'd be OK with either decision. I liked the core of this Flyers team before the offer sheet, and I will like it without adding Shea Weber. Obviously, I'd love to add a guy like Weber, on the other hand.
vejim
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: FL
Joined: 07.08.2007

Jul 20 @ 8:48 AM ET
Sorry, but i honestly believe the minute Homer offered that OS and Weber signed... we ended our good working relationship. We burned them big time, and they wont forget it.

I honestly dont think giving them JV, and Meszy will let us continue our good trading relationships.

- jak521

Thats why I think the flyers need to seriously pursue the Nashville scouts
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jul 20 @ 8:48 AM ET
Bill if Voracek goes, what do we dofor wingers.. I mean we alreadylost JVR and Jags? To get Weber I guess you do it.. but we'll have to sign a forward IMO.
- Hextall271

This is exactly my point. You need balance. If we continue to move forwards it will be very tough to produce an offensively effective team. Jags, JvR, Voracek... all gone and we will have Read, Simmonds, Schenn(?) and Hartnell as our wingers.. What happens if an injury to one of them occurs. We will be super thin on offense.

I LOVE the idea of Weber just as much as anyone else, but I also remember how excited I was before the idea of Weber. This is a damn good team.. with some fantastic young talent..

Idk.. its a tough tough call.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 20 @ 8:49 AM ET
Bill if Voracek goes, what do we dofor wingers.. I mean we alreadylost JVR and Jags? To get Weber I guess you do it.. but we'll have to sign a forward IMO.
- Hextall271


If Voracek goes, they can sign Semin, or pursue another trade
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jul 20 @ 8:49 AM ET
Uh, Nashville's ticket revenue from last season, counting playoffs, is less than $27mm. This is also a team that reportedly lost around $7mm last year, despite being a playoff team. Toss in that there could well be a lockout, which would reduce or eliminate ticket revenue, and it's a very difficult decision.

As far as their international budget, lockout or not, they will still have to scout games across the world. Obviously the CHL, Elite leagues and other leagues would be playing hockey, and the Preds will still need to scout them and that costs money.

As a purely hockey decision, it's a no brainer. You don't lose a guy who is one of the best defensemen in the NHL for draft choices. Unfortunately for the Preds it's not a hockey decision any longer.

I think it's 50-50 that they match. I'd be OK with either decision. I liked the core of this Flyers team before the offer sheet, and I will like it without adding Shea Weber. Obviously, I'd love to add a guy like Weber, on the other hand.

- Jsaquella

isaiah520
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "All train compartments smell vaguely of sh*t. It gets so you don't mind it"
Joined: 12.26.2006

Jul 20 @ 8:49 AM ET
poop! Didnt know that.
- jak521

and that's another reason why poile is xtra motivated to match - make a deal and get it done, imo.
phi1671
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 08.06.2007

Jul 20 @ 8:50 AM ET
great blob bill...
have a good friday everyone...

jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jul 20 @ 8:50 AM ET
If Voracek goes, they can sign Semin, or pursue another trade
- Jsaquella

That would be a reallly tough move to make cap wise I would think... but then again.. I suck at thinking.
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