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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Weber Watch
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FlyersFirst
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.01.2011

Jul 20 @ 12:39 PM ET
i just find the whole thing so intriguing

so much more intense than normal trade negotiations, obviously

but all the bluffing and counterbluffing and posturing and trying to predict what the other side is thinking or willing to do is crazy to think about

- Crimsoninja


Agreed. And in this instance especially the Preds need to have an absolute wall o secrecy. if for example they have no intention to match, they have to play it like they will to maximize the Gratton deal back. If the flyers got that intel, the preds will be lucky if the wind up with lilja and a bag of pucks. That said i hope that doesn't happen. I rather that the flyers give something (small) back
stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

Jul 20 @ 12:39 PM ET
at the same time though, Nashville could attempt to see if Holmer is bluffing

i agree the flyers have the majority of the leverage here, but Nashville still has some cards to play

- Crimsoninja


They can call Homers bluff and say we're going to match the offer. Homer's team is set pretty much. The Flyers have Nashville pinned down, Nashville can't threaten the Flyers.

To me its Weber or nothing. I'm not trading pieces. Match or Dont match.
tangent_man
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey
Joined: 11.28.2007

Jul 20 @ 12:39 PM ET
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/to?iso=20120726T00&p0=198&msg=WEBER%3F%21%3F%21%3F%21%3F%21%3F%21%3F%21
- aightwebang17


lol
rockychocbill
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: The Off Season
Joined: 07.04.2008

Jul 20 @ 12:40 PM ET
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/to?iso=20120726T00&p0=198&msg=WEBER%3F%21%3F%21%3F%21%3F%21%3F%21%3F%21
- aightwebang17


I was looking to make one of these yesterday but I was tired and knew somebody would have one up soon enough.
Crimsoninja
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Dude, I am so sorry about whatever made you like this. Take it easy.
Joined: 07.06.2007

Jul 20 @ 12:41 PM ET
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/to?iso=20120726T00&p0=198&msg=WEBER%3F%21%3F%21%3F%21%3F%21%3F%21%3F%21
- aightwebang17

rockychocbill
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: The Off Season
Joined: 07.04.2008

Jul 20 @ 12:41 PM ET
So we're the Broad Street Bullies even in the off season.
dcflyerfan71
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Washington, DC
Joined: 09.18.2009

Jul 20 @ 12:42 PM ET
The more likely it plays out, the more likely a trade is in the works, so, yes, I agree with this sentiment.

Right now though Nashville is probably just crunching numbers.

- LordStanley88



I also think that getting several owners to come to a "consensus" as to the proper direction forward will be no small feat in and of itself for Nashville. The HB boards have a ton of great thoughts (although just thoughts) as to the real Nashville situation. Only the owners themselves have that luxury of full knowledge.

Trying to get several mid-level managers of a business to come to a consensus on even trivial matters is often difficult. This situation involves several M/Billionairs who likely have a lot of inputs and ideas as to what the future of the franchise ought to be and how they should get there.

The idea that time spent is good for the Flyers is probably right, but I wouldn't read too much into that. A discussion between these owners that may likely decide the long-term fate of the franchise will take a bunch of time IMHO.
stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

Jul 20 @ 12:43 PM ET
So we're the Broad Street Bullies even in the off season.
- rockychocbill


So be it. The Flyers are doing no wrong here. They tried to trade with Nashville and the asking price is ridiculous so Homer went another route.

Nashville put themselves in this current position, I dont feel bad for the small market team.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 20 @ 12:43 PM ET
For all the Naysayers heres nashvilles income statement.....yeah good luck matching



Lol you see theat 6.5 million subsidies....are they going to ask the tax payers to pay weber lol

- Philly1980


I am curious - where did you get these figures? Apparently, the city of NSH has asked the club for profit and loss statements on several times and been rebuffed. (Many sports companies do not reveal such figures).

Also, your figures can be read another way. Since 2005-6, (essentially the Suter/Weber/Rinne era) the revenues have gone up by 11 mil odd. Assume that with 2 of the 3 gone, they will fall that much, and every year. In fact they may fall by more because in those days the franchise was going North and now there will be a death whiff about it. If they they don't reduce hockey expenses, then that is a loss of 66 m over 6 years, not too different from the 68 m in bonus money due to Weber.

Yes, it going to be rough for 1 year, but most worthwhile businesses can find money to tide over a crisis if the long run fundamentals are good.

I would put my vote squarely in the match column.
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Jul 20 @ 12:45 PM ET
So be it. The Flyers are doing no wrong here. They tried to trade with Nashville and the asking price is ridiculous so Homer went another route.

Nashville put themselves in this current position, I dont feel bad for the small market team.

- stveshdy

So to speak, he's paying the price and going to the net.
Crimsoninja
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Dude, I am so sorry about whatever made you like this. Take it easy.
Joined: 07.06.2007

Jul 20 @ 12:45 PM ET
They can call Homers bluff and say we're going to match the offer. Homer's team is set pretty much. The Flyers have Nashville pinned down, Nashville can't threaten the Flyers.

To me its Weber or nothing. I'm not trading pieces. Match or Dont match.

- stveshdy

i think the flyers would agree to a reasonable deal

they want this guy bad. and to lose out on him while being this close is not something i see them doing.

but like you said, if its a total bluff by Nashville, the Flyers really have to be careful with who they agree to give up.
eayost
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Into the Void, PA
Joined: 04.14.2010

Jul 20 @ 12:47 PM ET
I am curious - where did you get these figures? Apparently, the city of NSH has asked the club for profit and loss statements on several times and been rebuffed. (Many sports companies do not reveal such figures).

Also, your figures can be read another way. Since 2005-6, (essentially the Suter/Weber/Rinne era) the revenues have gone up by 11 mil odd. Assume that with 2 of the 3 gone, they will fall that much, and every year. In fact they may fall by more because in those days the franchise was going North and now there will be a death whiff about it. If they they don't reduce hockey expenses, then that is a loss of 66 m over 6 years, not too different from the 68 m in bonus money due to Weber.

Yes, it going to be rough for 1 year, but most worthwhile businesses can find money to tide over a crisis if the long run fundamentals are good.

I would put my vote squarely in the match column.

- PT21


But (according to this thing we have no way of knowing is real or not, so ehhh......), apparently expenses went up by 22M. It looks like expenses are outrising the revenue.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 20 @ 12:48 PM ET
How do they fit Jake without using the LTIR money?
I know they can go the % over during the off season, but don't they need to be compliant prior to opening night and LTIT doesn't kick in until opening night?

- nails



They'll be able to place Pronger on LTIR before the first game.
stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

Jul 20 @ 12:50 PM ET
i think the flyers would agree to a reasonable deal

they want this guy bad. and to lose out on him while being this close is not something i see them doing.

but like you said, if its a total bluff by Nashville, the Flyers really have to be careful with who they agree to give up.

- Crimsoninja


Honestly, I never want ONE player to control our outcome. Would it be nice to have Weber? Sure it would be. I just dont think its the end of the world if he isnt here. Thats the difference in GM's, some panic and others stand pat. Homer knows what hes doing and hes not scared of anything b/c this guy traded away his two superstars last season. Nashville can match the choices is theres. I dont see a need to help with a trade. I understand they want Weber but what makes this deal anybetter getting MAB, Voracek and picks? If the Flyers give anything significant up its not a smart business decision. They are throwing a boat load of cash at Weber we dont need to make Nashville happy and please them. Match or dont match. Homer called their bluff, now lets see if Nashville calls his. Homer laid his monster hand down, in a few days lets see if the Preds have the better hand.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 20 @ 12:50 PM ET
It could. There was no "cap circumvention" clause in the CBA before the Kovalchuk contract happened. The league just made something up on the fly and rejected it. Nashville could hope the league does the same thing with the Flyers' use of the bonus money.

Or... does an offer sheet already have to pass through some kind of initial league approval before (or after) a player signs it? If it does, than the league has already said it's ok.

- eayost


There is an entire article in the CBA with all encompassing language on Cap Circumvention.
Don'tForgetTocchet
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ground Zero Brooklyn
Joined: 02.08.2007

Jul 20 @ 12:51 PM ET
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/to?iso=20120726T00&p0=198&msg=WEBER%3F%21%3F%21%3F%21%3F%21%3F%21%3F%21
- aightwebang17



*refreshes*
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Jul 20 @ 12:52 PM ET
But (according to this thing we have no way of knowing is real or not, so ehhh......), apparently expenses went up by 22M. It looks like expenses are outrising the revenue.
- eayost

Upon closer inspection, that $22m increase is almost entirely player salaries. Just throwing that out there.
Crimsoninja
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Dude, I am so sorry about whatever made you like this. Take it easy.
Joined: 07.06.2007

Jul 20 @ 12:54 PM ET
Honestly, I never want ONE player to control our outcome. Would it be nice to have Weber? Sure it would be. I just dont think its the end of the world if he isnt here. Thats the difference in GM's, some panic and others stand pat. Homer knows what hes doing and hes not scared of anything b/c this guy traded away his two superstars last season. Nashville can match the choices is theres. I dont see a need to help with a trade. I understand they want Weber but what makes this deal anybetter getting MAB, Voracek and picks? If the Flyers give anything significant up its not a smart business decision. They are throwing a boat load of cash at Weber we dont need to make Nashville happy and please them. Match or dont match. Homer called their bluff, now lets see if Nashville calls his. Homer laid his monster hand down, in a few days lets see if the Preds have the better hand.
- stveshdy

but its not that simple, imo
you can say sports is a business..which is true.. but its still unique in that winning is a goal in addition to profit.
if they give up Jake, MAB, picks, etc... you could say its a bad business deal... but if they win a Cup with Weber, it would then become hard to say it was a bad business deal.

rockychocbill
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: The Off Season
Joined: 07.04.2008

Jul 20 @ 12:55 PM ET
So be it. The Flyers are doing no wrong here. They tried to trade with Nashville and the asking price is ridiculous so Homer went another route.

Nashville put themselves in this current position, I dont feel bad for the small market team.

- stveshdy


I know. It just further enhances our rep (good and bad) around the league.
rockychocbill
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: The Off Season
Joined: 07.04.2008

Jul 20 @ 12:57 PM ET
So to speak, he's paying the price and going to the net.
- BulliesPhan87


A good manager always leads by example.

* as I sit at my computer on a hockey board during work hours.*
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Jul 20 @ 12:57 PM ET
Nashville trying to say it's cap circumenvetion I think. They will fail with this appeal though.

Fully complies with Kovalchuck "rule".

- LordStanley88


where do you see this?
stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

Jul 20 @ 12:57 PM ET
but its not that simple, imo
you can say sports is a business..which is true.. but its still unique in that winning is a goal in addition to profit.
if they give up Jake, MAB, picks, etc... you could say its a bad business deal... but if they win a Cup with Weber, it would then become hard to say it was a bad business deal.

- Crimsoninja


I'm looking at it from Nashville's view.

Option 1. 4 1st rounders
Option 2. 2 1st rounders, Voracek, MAB

Either option isnt going to make an immediate impact for the Preds (over the top). The Flyers are refusing to trade Read, Couturier, or Schenn. So does making Option 2 really help the Preds? The Flyers don't need to overpay in a trade. They have an offer sheet in thats monsterous. I just think the Flyers know the offer sheet cant be matched.

Flyers 80%
Preds 20%
the deaninator
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Purgatory, DE
Joined: 08.06.2006

Jul 20 @ 12:58 PM ET
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/to?iso=20120726T00&p0=198&msg=WEBER%3F%21%3F%21%3F%21%3F%21%3F%21%3F%21
- aightwebang17

This is now a permanent open window on my desktop. Thanks
eayost
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Into the Void, PA
Joined: 04.14.2010

Jul 20 @ 12:59 PM ET
There is an entire article in the CBA with all encompassing language on Cap Circumvention.
- MJL


Is that the Kovalchuk rule or something that was in the CBA when first written? If it was already there, why was there a fiasco with Kovalchuk?
vejim
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: FL
Joined: 07.08.2007

Jul 20 @ 1:00 PM ET
Do bartenders still know how to make tequila sunrises?
- bodiva88

fill tall glass with ice... tequila, orange juice, grenadine ...pretty easy
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