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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Weber Watch
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nails
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: thread killer, PA
Joined: 02.05.2007

Jul 20 @ 12:24 PM ET
Probably, but do you think Homer entertains a "Gratton" scenario as Bill laid out or stands firm with his "money only" offer sheet? In essence I guess it comes down to which players and how many of them are you willing to part with to get some 1st rounders back.
- rockychocbill

But with this signing, he must make some kind of moves since there isn't the cap space left to sign Jake and MAB.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 20 @ 12:24 PM ET
Probably, but do you think Homer entertains a "Gratton" scenario as Bill laid out or stands firm with his "money only" offer sheet? In essence I guess it comes down to which players and how many of them are you willing to part with to get some 1st rounders back.
- rockychocbill



If a reasonable and agreeable deal can be worked out between the two teams, that ensures that Weber ends up a Flyer. I believe that Holmgren would do so. I think he'd rather make a Hockey deal then "screw" Nashville out of a player. And I would also think that the League is using it's "influence" to make that happen. This is all dependent on Nashville not matching of course.
stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

Jul 20 @ 12:24 PM ET
Does anyone else think that the longer it takes for the Preds to respond, means that they likely aren't going to match? I would suspect the Preds would need at least a few days, to talk things over. But if they don't announce by Monday, that they are matching. I think that bodes well for the Flyers.
- MJL


I said that yesterday. The longer it takes for them to announce it the better it is for the Flyers. The Preds aren't holding out they want to announce to their fans ASAP that they are going to match.
LordStanley88
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.30.2012

Jul 20 @ 12:25 PM ET
Does anyone else think that the longer it takes for the Preds to respond, means that they likely aren't going to match? I would suspect the Preds would need at least a few days, to talk things over. But if they don't announce by Monday, that they are matching. I think that bodes well for the Flyers.
- MJL


The more likely it plays out, the more likely a trade is in the works, so, yes, I agree with this sentiment.

Right now though Nashville is probably just crunching numbers.
Crimsoninja
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Dude, I am so sorry about whatever made you like this. Take it easy.
Joined: 07.06.2007

Jul 20 @ 12:25 PM ET
I said that yesterday. The longer it takes for them to announce it the better it is for the Flyers. The Preds aren't holding out they want to announce to their fans ASAP that they are going to match.
- stveshdy

still at 80/20 sir?
eayost
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Into the Void, PA
Joined: 04.14.2010

Jul 20 @ 12:26 PM ET
I'm not so sure. What do the Preds gain by matching before the deadline?
- sheerrw


I kind of think if they'd have matched the deal virtually immediately, it'd say a lot about how confident their ability is to pay franchise players like franchise players, and players around the league may take notice of that when they're considering Nashville when they're on the market. The only thing they maybe gain by holding out for a long time is maybe Holmgren gets antsy and upps an offer for the picks. But even in that case, Nashville isn't really hoping to match. If they know they can match and that's what they want to do, I don't know what they gain by waiting.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 20 @ 12:26 PM ET
But with this signing, he must make some kind of moves since there isn't the cap space left to sign Jake and MAB.
- nails



They would have the space to sign Voracek. It would be tight. But your right, to be safe, some minor deals would likely be made to have some breathing room.
LordStanley88
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.30.2012

Jul 20 @ 12:26 PM ET
Sutter is a nice young player. But Staal is a physical force in his own end, as well as being a strong forechecker and an underated offensive player. There is a substantial dropoff between the two players.
- MJL


Very significant drop off IMO. Staal nearly averaged a PPG last season. He will be missed sorely.
stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

Jul 20 @ 12:27 PM ET
still at 80/20 sir?
- Crimsoninja


Yes. I stand by those numbers.

I honestly believe Nashville already knows they cant match but they are looking at everything possible to come up with that money.
feelingkettle
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "No sir, I don't like it" Phil, PA
Joined: 11.13.2006

Jul 20 @ 12:27 PM ET
Yesterday Morganti said that it might take a while for the Preds to respond because their ownership is multiple parties that are spread all over, giving the impression they must convene. What's wrong with the telephone?
- 2731color

I heard they had to talk to Parise's wife first. Might want to stock up on food and drinks, this could be a while.
rockychocbill
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: The Off Season
Joined: 07.04.2008

Jul 20 @ 12:27 PM ET
But with this signing, he must make some kind of moves since there isn't the cap space left to sign Jake and MAB.
- nails


I suspect MAB would be one of the players going back to Nashville if a player deal is made. Not sure Homer would part with Jake though.
LordStanley88
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.30.2012

Jul 20 @ 12:28 PM ET
I kind of think if they'd have matched the deal virtually immediately, it'd say a lot about how confident their ability is to pay franchise players like franchise players, and players around the league may take notice of that when they're considering Nashville when they're on the market. The only thing they maybe gain by holding out for a long time is maybe Holmgren gets antsy and upps an offer for the picks. But even in that case, Nashville isn't really hoping to match. If they know they can match and that's what they want to do, I don't know what they gain by waiting.
- eayost


I've been told they're trying to sway Bettman to believe it's cap circumvention, but that's obviously just a rumor.

Regardless, that argument doesn't hold water IMO.
feelingkettle
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "No sir, I don't like it" Phil, PA
Joined: 11.13.2006

Jul 20 @ 12:28 PM ET
I've been told they're trying to sway Bettman to believe it's cap circumvention, but that's obviously just a rumor.

Regardless, that argument doesn't hold water IMO.

- LordStanley88

Who told you that?
rockychocbill
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: The Off Season
Joined: 07.04.2008

Jul 20 @ 12:29 PM ET
If a reasonable and agreeable deal can be worked out between the two teams, that ensures that Weber ends up a Flyer. I believe that Holmgren would do so. I think he'd rather make a Hockey deal then "screw" Nashville out of a player. And I would also think that the League is using it's "influence" to make that happen. This is all dependent on Nashville not matching of course.
- MJL


Agreed.
nails
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: thread killer, PA
Joined: 02.05.2007

Jul 20 @ 12:29 PM ET
They would have the space to sign Voracek. It would be tight. But your right, to be safe, some minor deals would likely be made to have some breathing room.
- MJL

How do they fit Jake without using the LTIR money?
I know they can go the % over during the off season, but don't they need to be compliant prior to opening night and LTIT doesn't kick in until opening night?
Crimsoninja
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Dude, I am so sorry about whatever made you like this. Take it easy.
Joined: 07.06.2007

Jul 20 @ 12:29 PM ET
Yes. I stand by those numbers.

I honestly believe Nashville already knows they cant match but they are looking at everything possible to come up with that money.

- stveshdy

i just find the whole thing so intriguing

so much more intense than normal trade negotiations, obviously

but all the bluffing and counterbluffing and posturing and trying to predict what the other side is thinking or willing to do is crazy to think about
nails
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: thread killer, PA
Joined: 02.05.2007

Jul 20 @ 12:31 PM ET
I suspect MAB would be one of the players going back to Nashville if a player deal is made. Not sure Homer would part with Jake though.
- rockychocbill

Right. I think they try to send mezs and MAB back for the 2014 pick and keep Jake. Use the mezs money to sign Jake and the ltir money to make it through the season.
stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

Jul 20 @ 12:33 PM ET
i just find the whole thing so intriguing

so much more intense than normal trade negotiations, obviously

but all the bluffing and counterbluffing and posturing and trying to predict what the other side is thinking or willing to do is crazy to think about

- Crimsoninja


Nashville made the statement "will match any offer for Weber".

The Flyers tried to trade for Weber (reported) and Homer had enough. He is calling their bluff by offering him a sheet. Homer didnt just pick these numbers out of thin air. He has a pretty good idea on what Nashville can afford. He put them in a tough position.

Stand pat and lets see if Nashville has the stones/money to match. Either way the Flyers are in good shape. Weber isn't a must have right now. Nashville is desperate to keep Weber (110M?) will find out soon enough.
sheerrw
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newtown, PA
Joined: 09.29.2006

Jul 20 @ 12:33 PM ET
I kind of think if they'd have matched the deal virtually immediately, it'd say a lot about how confident their ability is to pay franchise players like franchise players, and players around the league may take notice of that when they're considering Nashville when they're on the market. The only thing they maybe gain by holding out for a long time is maybe Holmgren gets antsy and upps an offer for the picks. But even in that case, Nashville isn't really hoping to match. If they know they can match and that's what they want to do, I don't know what they gain by waiting.
- eayost


Yeah, it would send a good signal to their players. But I think the trade possibility is enough of a reason to wait. Poile should hold out just in case Homer falls off his bike again and decides to give up Coots and Schenn.
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Jul 20 @ 12:33 PM ET
i just find the whole thing so intriguing

so much more intense than normal trade negotiations, obviously

but all the bluffing and counterbluffing and posturing and trying to predict what the other side is thinking or willing to do is crazy to think about

- Crimsoninja


especially between two guys who have done so many (assuming) amicable transactions together.
rockychocbill
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: The Off Season
Joined: 07.04.2008

Jul 20 @ 12:36 PM ET
Right. I think they try to send mezs and MAB back for the 2014 pick and keep Jake. Use the mezs money to sign Jake and the ltir money to make it through the season.
- nails


Obviously not equal replacements for Weber and Suter, but they have to start plugging the holes somehow. Nashville may want a forward instead of 2 d-men though. They have Blum on a 2-way deal I think. Not sure how far away from everyday NHL ready they think he is though.
Crimsoninja
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Dude, I am so sorry about whatever made you like this. Take it easy.
Joined: 07.06.2007

Jul 20 @ 12:37 PM ET
Nashville made the statement "will match any offer for Weber".

The Flyers tried to trade for Weber (reported) and Homer had enough. He is calling their bluff by offering him a sheet. Homer didnt just pick these numbers out of thin air. He has a pretty good idea on what Nashville can afford. He put them in a tough position.

Stand pat and lets see if Nashville has the stones/money to match. Either way the Flyers are in good shape. Weber isn't a must have right now. Nashville is desperate to keep Weber (110M?) will find out soon enough.

- stveshdy

at the same time though, Nashville could attempt to see if Holmer is bluffing

i agree the flyers have the majority of the leverage here, but Nashville still has some cards to play
aightwebang17
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Typical Montreal, PA
Joined: 07.10.2008

Jul 20 @ 12:38 PM ET
http://www.timeanddate.co...1%3F%21%3F%21%3F%21%3F%21
eayost
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Into the Void, PA
Joined: 04.14.2010

Jul 20 @ 12:38 PM ET
I've been told they're trying to sway Bettman to believe it's cap circumvention, but that's obviously just a rumor.

Regardless, that argument doesn't hold water IMO.

- LordStanley88


It could. There was no "cap circumvention" clause in the CBA before the Kovalchuk contract happened. The league just made something up on the fly and rejected it. Nashville could hope the league does the same thing with the Flyers' use of the bonus money.

Or... does an offer sheet already have to pass through some kind of initial league approval before (or after) a player signs it? If it does, than the league has already said it's ok.
Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

Jul 20 @ 12:38 PM ET
Yesterday Morganti said that it might take a while for the Preds to respond because their ownership is multiple parties that are spread all over, giving the impression they must convene. What's wrong with the telephone?
- 2731color

Or Oovoo?
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