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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Weber Watch
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jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Jul 20 @ 10:59 PM ET
They aren't taking Walker.
- MJL

Then I pull that deal because Flyers would be giving them a lot more than 4 1s.
fnmjoe13
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: The Farm, NJ
Joined: 10.16.2009

Jul 20 @ 11:00 PM ET
End of the month is coming folks don't forget to pay your Comcast bills you guys are footing the bill for Weber .
- 215mike

His salary would fit in with Comcast executives. $20-30 million is normal.
_Zippy_
New Jersey Devils
Location: Threw one in front blocked the, NJ
Joined: 01.26.2012

Jul 20 @ 11:00 PM ET
Problem is Nashville isnt going to make money if they match this deal. In fact its almost a guarantee they lose money.
- stveshdy


They aren't going to make money if they don't either, in fact, they will probably lose more money if they don't match it then if they do.

Nashville has made some great strides in terms of their fan base. If they keep Weber and stay competitive they can only go up. They lose him, they have to start from the get go.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 20 @ 11:01 PM ET
You know what also says trouble?

Losing your top two defensemen in one off season and kissing all future revenues good bye as they would have to go into total rebuild, probably with mediocre 20-30 draft picks.

- _Zippy_


There's a possibility that not matching will be more devastating financially them matching the offer is. Matching the offer is an investment in the future.
stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

Jul 20 @ 11:01 PM ET
You know what also says trouble?

Losing your top two defensemen in one off season and kissing all future revenues good bye as they would have to go into total rebuild, probably with mediocre 20-30 draft picks.

- _Zippy_


See to me thats pure speculation. We have no idea how much the Preds will lose with Weber gone. Theres no guarantee if Weber stays there going to make more money (b/c of his contract).
_Zippy_
New Jersey Devils
Location: Threw one in front blocked the, NJ
Joined: 01.26.2012

Jul 20 @ 11:02 PM ET
There's a possibility that not matching will be more devastating financially them matching the offer is. Matching the offer is an investment in the future.
- MJL


Exactly.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 20 @ 11:02 PM ET
That just says "trouble"
- stveshdy


I'm not even saying they won't match.

If I was one of those owners, I'd be doing everything possible to try and make it work out and keep Weber.

But at the same time, winning trumps any one player. They still have a solid team, and could use the assets acquired to add other players.

Say they don't match, and trade 2 first back to Philly for Voracek and Meszaros. Then turned around and traded another 1st for Bouwmeester. That adds 3 very capable NHL players, allows them to reach the cap floor and still be very competitive in a weakened Central division(Detroit lost Lidstrom, Chicago is still weak defnsively, Columbus...well they're the Jackets)
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 20 @ 11:02 PM ET
See to me thats pure speculation. We have no idea how much the Preds will lose with Weber gone. Theres no guarantee if Weber stays there going to make more money (b/c of his contract).
- stveshdy


No different from the speculation about how much money the Preds have and their ability to match it.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 20 @ 11:04 PM ET
They still have to reach the floor. They are going to have to give out this money regardless. Maybe now they pay probably a bit more then they'd want to, but they are still have 14 million to hit the floor.

All I'm saying is there is still a really solid chance Nashville matches, if i had to put a number on it. It's 60% Nashville, 40% Philly at this point.

- _Zippy_


If they don't match, and trade 2 of the picks back to Philly for Voracek and Meszaros, that's as big or bigger in terms of cap hit than Weber. Then trade another first for Jay Bouwmeester. Then they're at or near the floor and still a pretty competitive team

The flip side is, how many people in Nashville will pay to see a team that isn;t competitive, just because it has Weber and Rinne?
stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

Jul 20 @ 11:05 PM ET
No different from the speculation about how much money the Preds have and their ability to match it.
- MJL


Figures have been posted on Forbes. People know how much money the Preds are putting out based on that chart that was posted earlier today. I dont see anything that proves how much they would lose if Weber leaves, thats all speculation with no numbers to back it up with.

27th in revenue speaks for itself about the money they have laying around.
ravishingone
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, PA
Joined: 06.30.2007

Jul 20 @ 11:07 PM ET
I know. It's a lot of money. But then at the same time, they just lost Suter as well. They lose Weber, their best defensemen is Hal Gill, and they lose all the strides both on-ice and in terms of their fan base they have made. Also, someone pointed out a 12% minority owner, Tom Wilson, has a lot of money and bought that share in Nashville in November. I still think they match it out of necessity, because there's a good chance if they do, they will make the money back in revenue, and if not, I doubt there's any revenue for Nashville.
- _Zippy_


I'm not so sure they can make the money back in revenue. They lost money last year with Weber and Suter and making it into the second round of the playoffs. Could they lose even more money with losing both this year? Certainly, but other key young players are coming up for raises over the next two years on the Preds. Gotta have money to pay them.

Generally speaking, millionares are millionares because they don't lose money for an extended period of time. Certainly the owners of the Preds could dig into their pockets for Weber and may do so, but I'm confident they have to be worried about a potential lockout which would effect gate revenue even more.
ravishingone
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, PA
Joined: 06.30.2007

Jul 20 @ 11:07 PM ET
I know. It's a lot of money. But then at the same time, they just lost Suter as well. They lose Weber, their best defensemen is Hal Gill, and they lose all the strides both on-ice and in terms of their fan base they have made. Also, someone pointed out a 12% minority owner, Tom Wilson, has a lot of money and bought that share in Nashville in November. I still think they match it out of necessity, because there's a good chance if they do, they will make the money back in revenue, and if not, I doubt there's any revenue for Nashville.
- _Zippy_


I'm not so sure they can make the money back in revenue. They lost money last year with Weber and Suter and making it into the second round of the playoffs. Could they lose even more money with losing both this year? Certainly, but other key young players are coming up for raises over the next two years on the Preds. Gotta have money to pay them.

Generally speaking, millionares are millionares because they don't lose money for an extended period of time. Certainly the owners of the Preds could dig into their pockets for Weber and may do so, but I'm confident they have to be worried about a potential lockout which would effect gate revenue even more.
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Jul 20 @ 11:08 PM ET
If they don't match, and trade 2 of the picks back to Philly for Voracek and Meszaros, that's as big or bigger in terms of cap hit than Weber. Then trade another first for Jay Bouwmeester. Then they're at or near the floor and still a pretty competitive team
- Jsaquella


WHy would Philly trade Voracek and Meszaros for two late 1st rd picks, eve if they were the 2013 and 2014?
stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

Jul 20 @ 11:08 PM ET
I'm not so sure they can make the money back in revenue. They lost money last year with Weber and Suter and making it into the second round of the playoffs. Could they lose even more money with losing both this year? Certainly, but other key young players are coming up for raises over the next two years on the Preds. Gotta have money to pay them.

Generally speaking, millionares are millionares because they don't lose money for an extended period of time. Certainly the owners of the Preds could dig into their pockets for Weber and may do so, but I'm confident they have to be worried about a potential lockout which would effect gate revenue even more.

- ravishingone


Totally agree.
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Jul 20 @ 11:09 PM ET
The more we discuss the more I think Nasshville matches or Philly trades too many assets for Weber.
_Zippy_
New Jersey Devils
Location: Threw one in front blocked the, NJ
Joined: 01.26.2012

Jul 20 @ 11:09 PM ET
If they don't match, and trade 2 of the picks back to Philly for Voracek and Meszaros, that's as big or bigger in terms of cap hit than Weber. Then trade another first for Jay Bouwmeester. Then they're at or near the floor and still a pretty competitive team

The flip side is, how many people in Nashville will pay to see a team that isn;t competitive, just because it has Weber and Rinne?

- Jsaquella


First off, why would Philly do that.

They can just give seemingly worthless picks that won't be ready for at least two years, instead of throwing in proven NHL players.

Without Weber they are practically guaranteeing they aren't competitive, with Weber they can still be a very competitive team.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 20 @ 11:09 PM ET
WHy would Philly trade Voracek and Meszaros for two late 1st rd picks, eve if they were the 2013 and 2014?
- jstross


Perhaps to guarantee the Predators don't match. There's still a very good possibility that the Preds decide to match the offer sheet. Then it boils down to how badly the Flyers want Weber.
Crimsoninja
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Dude, I am so sorry about whatever made you like this. Take it easy.
Joined: 07.06.2007

Jul 20 @ 11:09 PM ET
I'm not even saying they won't match.

If I was one of those owners, I'd be doing everything possible to try and make it work out and keep Weber.

But at the same time, winning trumps any one player. They still have a solid team, and could use the assets acquired to add other players.

Say they don't match, and trade 2 first back to Philly for Voracek and Meszaros. Then turned around and traded another 1st for Bouwmeester. That adds 3 very capable NHL players, allows them to reach the cap floor and still be very competitive in a weakened Central division(Detroit lost Lidstrom, Chicago is still weak defnsively, Columbus...well they're the Jackets)

- Jsaquella

weber is popular there for sure. everyone loves big hits.. even casual hockey fans

but getting a top scorer in there would bring in even more fans, imo.
if they dont match, they'll have a ton of picks they'd be able to package for an established one (or trade up for one in a future draft)

obviously this might not work, or take some time, but it could play into their thinking
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 20 @ 11:10 PM ET
Figures have been posted on Forbes. People know how much money the Preds are putting out based on that chart that was posted earlier today. I dont see anything that proves how much they would lose if Weber leaves, thats all speculation with no numbers to back it up with.

27th in revenue speaks for itself about the money they have laying around.

- stveshdy


I think there is a general idea of the franchises worth and income. But actual numbers are not public. Nor is all of the cash flow available to the owners. There's a lot of information that the public is not privy to. Were going round and round here.
_Zippy_
New Jersey Devils
Location: Threw one in front blocked the, NJ
Joined: 01.26.2012

Jul 20 @ 11:11 PM ET
I'm not so sure they can make the money back in revenue. They lost money last year with Weber and Suter and making it into the second round of the playoffs. Could they lose even more money with losing both this year? Certainly, but other key young players are coming up for raises over the next two years on the Preds. Gotta have money to pay them.

Generally speaking, millionares are millionares because they don't lose money for an extended period of time. Certainly the owners of the Preds could dig into their pockets for Weber and may do so, but I'm confident they have to be worried about a potential lockout which would effect gate revenue even more.

- ravishingone


There's a far greater chance they lose money when they lose Weber. Unless ownership or management feels very confident with the team they have, I certainly would not looking at the roster, they have to match that deal.
stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

Jul 20 @ 11:11 PM ET
If they don't match, and trade 2 of the picks back to Philly for Voracek and Meszaros, that's as big or bigger in terms of cap hit than Weber. Then trade another first for Jay Bouwmeester. Then they're at or near the floor and still a pretty competitive team

The flip side is, how many people in Nashville will pay to see a team that isn;t competitive, just because it has Weber and Rinne?

- Jsaquella


Exactly. The same number of people may come to games with or without Weber there. Theres no numbers to prove otherwise.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 20 @ 11:12 PM ET
I'm not so sure they can make the money back in revenue. They lost money last year with Weber and Suter and making it into the second round of the playoffs. Could they lose even more money with losing both this year? Certainly, but other key young players are coming up for raises over the next two years on the Preds. Gotta have money to pay them.

Generally speaking, millionares are millionares because they don't lose money for an extended period of time. Certainly the owners of the Preds could dig into their pockets for Weber and may do so, but I'm confident they have to be worried about a potential lockout which would effect gate revenue even more.

- ravishingone


And Millionaires have great accountants that make a profit look like a loss. There's all kinds of games that are played with finances.
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Jul 20 @ 11:12 PM ET
Perhaps to guarantee the Predators don't match. There's still a very good possibility that the Preds decide to match the offer sheet. Then it boils down to how badly the Flyers want Weber.
- Jsaquella


I wouldn't trade Voracek, Meszaros and 2 first rd picks for Weber. IMO that's the equivalent of 4 first rounders and 2 3rd rounders.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 20 @ 11:12 PM ET
First off, why would Philly do that.

They can just give seemingly worthless picks that won't be ready for at least two years, instead of throwing in proven NHL players.

Without Weber they are practically guaranteeing they aren't competitive, with Weber they can still be a very competitive team.

- _Zippy_


The Flyers may well offer a trade like that for several reasons:
1. To entice the Preds to agree not to match

2. To free up enough cap room to add Weber and address other needs.

3. To make the whole process as palatable to the NHL as possible.

The Preds can still be competitive without Weber, assuming they use the assets they get via the Flyers to fill immediate holes. If they're paying Weber and Rine so much that they can't build a competitive team around them, the fans will stop coming.
_Zippy_
New Jersey Devils
Location: Threw one in front blocked the, NJ
Joined: 01.26.2012

Jul 20 @ 11:12 PM ET
Perhaps to guarantee the Predators don't match. There's still a very good possibility that the Preds decide to match the offer sheet. Then it boils down to how badly the Flyers want Weber.
- Jsaquella


In that case, they are getting something of quality out of losing Weber, rather than four first round picks that probably aren't going to be anything good.

They get a top six forward and basically a Weber-lite. But even then, this is all pure speculation.
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