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Forums :: Blog World :: Jan Levine: Semin - A Look Behind the Numbers, Should the Rangers Make an Offer?
Author Message
tomburton99
New York Rangers
Location: NYR distrust, NJ
Joined: 07.13.2009

Jul 15 @ 9:10 PM ET
CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Alexander Semin ($6.700m) / Brad Richards ($6.667m) / Marian Gaborik ($7.500m)
Rick Nash ($7.800m) / Derek Stepan ($0.875m) / Ryan Callahan ($4.275m)
Carl Hagelin ($0.875m) / Chris Kreider ($1.325m) / Mike Rupp ($1.500m)
Taylor Pyatt ($1.550m) / Brian Boyle ($1.700m) / Arron Asham ($1.000m)
Jeff Halpern ($0.700m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Ryan McDonagh ($1.300m) / Dan Girardi ($3.325m)
Anton Stralman ($0.945m) / Marc Staal ($3.975m)
Michael Del Zotto ($0.827m) / Stu Bickel ($0.750m)
Michael Sauer ($1.250m) /
GOALTENDERS
Henrik Lundqvist ($6.875m)
Martin Biron ($1.300m)
BUYOUTS
Chris Drury ($1.667m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $64,680,209; BONUSES: $1,250,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $5,519,791



what do you guys think of this roster?

- TheRussian

i expect DZ's contract to be close to 3.5 million and Stralman's contract to be like 1.25 million. Those 2 guys are gonna cause the team's payroll to be closer to 68-69 million. Then the team has put itself into a cluster (frank). next year when you have to pay Kreider, Stepan, Hags and Mcdonagh their is going to be very little wiggle room. If we sign semin, then nash stays in columbus. if we trade for nash, we pass on semin.
rangerdanger94
New York Rangers
Location: NY
Joined: 05.23.2010

Jul 15 @ 9:13 PM ET
40 goals or making plays?
- NYRPowerPlay

it's not that simple.

it's more like 40 goals from nash or 20 goals from hagelin, 20 goals from dubinsky, 10-20 goals from miller, a 1st round, chemistry, and hagelin's intangibles (speed, creating turnovers for other players).

of course nash brings a veteran presence hungry to win, potentially 50 goals with richards, leadership, and a few other things as well.

but it would suck to lose hagelin. like a lot.
TheRussian
San Jose Sharks
Location: Абакан
Joined: 03.24.2011

Jul 15 @ 9:16 PM ET
Looks like a 2006 Glen Sather type of roster.
- NYRPowerPlay

oof that was bad
TheRussian
San Jose Sharks
Location: Абакан
Joined: 03.24.2011

Jul 15 @ 9:17 PM ET
it's not that simple.

it's more like 40 goals from nash or 20 goals from hagelin, 20 goals from dubinsky, 10-20 goals from miller, a 1st round, chemistry, and hagelin's intangibles (speed, creating turnovers for other players).

of course nash brings a veteran presence hungry to win, potentially 50 goals with richards, leadership, and a few other things as well.

but it would suck to lose hagelin. like a lot.

- rangerdanger94

im sorry but hagelin cant hold up a deal for nash
rangerdanger94
New York Rangers
Location: NY
Joined: 05.23.2010

Jul 15 @ 11:19 PM ET
totally offtopic but
NYRPowerPlay
New York Rangers
Location: Rick Nash to NYR? Ill take it, NY
Joined: 02.11.2012

Jul 16 @ 12:03 AM ET
it's not that simple.

it's more like 40 goals from nash or 20 goals from hagelin, 20 goals from dubinsky, 10-20 goals from miller, a 1st round, chemistry, and hagelin's intangibles (speed, creating turnovers for other players).

of course nash brings a veteran presence hungry to win, potentially 50 goals with richards, leadership, and a few other things as well.

but it would suck to lose hagelin. like a lot.

- rangerdanger94


So you rather have... 50 goals between 3 guys over 40 goals from one guy?

I love Hagelin's intangibles and I love the kid in general but no offense to the kid, its a lot easier to find a guy like that than to get a 40 goal scorer.

He might not be as fast as Hagelin, but Jesper Fasth is a very good skater and is quite fast as well. Hes bigger and hes not afraid of the dirty areas. With time, I think he could fill Hagelin's spot fairly well.
NYRPowerPlay
New York Rangers
Location: Rick Nash to NYR? Ill take it, NY
Joined: 02.11.2012

Jul 16 @ 12:31 AM ET
totally offtopic but

- rangerdanger94


That is pretty awesome.
Henrik's Crease
New York Rangers
Location: Trusting Sather with cap space, NY
Joined: 01.18.2010

Jul 16 @ 12:35 AM ET
CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Alexander Semin ($6.700m) / Brad Richards ($6.667m) / Marian Gaborik ($7.500m)
Rick Nash ($7.800m) / Derek Stepan ($0.875m) / Ryan Callahan ($4.275m)
Carl Hagelin ($0.875m) / Chris Kreider ($1.325m) / Mike Rupp ($1.500m)
Taylor Pyatt ($1.550m) / Brian Boyle ($1.700m) / Arron Asham ($1.000m)
Jeff Halpern ($0.700m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Ryan McDonagh ($1.300m) / Dan Girardi ($3.325m)
Anton Stralman ($0.945m) / Marc Staal ($3.975m)
Michael Del Zotto ($0.827m) / Stu Bickel ($0.750m)
Michael Sauer ($1.250m) /
GOALTENDERS
Henrik Lundqvist ($6.875m)
Martin Biron ($1.300m)
BUYOUTS
Chris Drury ($1.667m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $64,680,209; BONUSES: $1,250,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $5,519,791



what do you guys think of this roster?

- TheRussian


I think it destroys our future.

If the Cap goes down, weare at an extremely high risk of not being able to resign Hank, Kreider, Girardi, McD, Hagelin, Gaborik, Callahan, Boyle, Pyatt, Biron, Anisimov just to name a few of the players off the books in the next 2 years. Pretty much every player on that list with the exception of maybe 2 players will require a pretty decent raise, some WAY more than others. If you want to keep this core together, that roster would never be feasible.

Sure, it looks good right now, but two years from now we would be back to wanting to burn Sather's house down again once we lose two or three good players from our core. We will be back to the Rangers of old with overpaid players and not enough young talent. We want to be successful for many years, not just 1 or 2.

We won't be making any longterm decisions until the CBA is resolved either because if we get Nash and the new CBA doesn't have rollbacks or amnesty buyouts and the cap is set at 63M, the Rangers are royally (frank)ed. You could kiss one of Hank, Cally, Girardi, McD goodbye.
NYRPowerPlay
New York Rangers
Location: Rick Nash to NYR? Ill take it, NY
Joined: 02.11.2012

Jul 16 @ 1:01 AM ET
I think it destroys our future.

If the Cap goes down, weare at an extremely high risk of not being able to resign Hank, Kreider, Girardi, McD, Hagelin, Gaborik, Callahan, Boyle, Pyatt, Biron, Anisimov just to name a few of the players off the books in the next 2 years. Pretty much every player on that list with the exception of maybe 2 players will require a pretty decent raise, some WAY more than others. If you want to keep this core together, that roster would never be feasible.

Sure, it looks good right now, but two years from now we would be back to wanting to burn Sather's house down again once we lose two or three good players from our core. We will be back to the Rangers of old with overpaid players and not enough young talent. We want to be successful for many years, not just 1 or 2.

We won't be making any longterm decisions until the CBA is resolved either because if we get Nash and the new CBA doesn't have rollbacks or amnesty buyouts and the cap is set at 63M, the Rangers are royally (frank)ed. You could kiss one of Hank, Cally, Girardi, McD goodbye.

- Henrik's Crease


It aint going to be one of... if thats the list youre going with, its obviously Girardi.
PensMalkin71
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 07.18.2011

Jul 16 @ 3:30 AM ET
I have a question and I'm wondering how long Gaborik is out to start the season? Thanks.
jimbro83
New York Rangers
Location: Lets Go Rangers!, NY
Joined: 12.25.2009

Jul 16 @ 6:48 AM ET
I have a question and I'm wondering how long Gaborik is out to start the season? Thanks.
- PensMalkin71


I hear December


so, YAY lockout!

just kidding, I'll be so pissed if there is a lockout.

The Minnesota Wild owner Leipold is actually on the negotiating committee and says the league can't live with these long term contracts.

tomburton99
New York Rangers
Location: NYR distrust, NJ
Joined: 07.13.2009

Jul 16 @ 7:38 AM ET
I hear December


so, YAY lockout!

just kidding, I'll be so pissed if there is a lockout.

The Minnesota Wild owner Leipold is actually on the negotiating committee and says the league can't live with these long term contracts.


- jimbro83
he cant be serious.
jimbro83
New York Rangers
Location: Lets Go Rangers!, NY
Joined: 12.25.2009

Jul 16 @ 7:56 AM ET
he cant be serious.
- tomburton99


shirley he is serious

tomburton99
New York Rangers
Location: NYR distrust, NJ
Joined: 07.13.2009

Jul 16 @ 8:00 AM ET
shirley he is serious


- jimbro83

i hope the wild just flop this year now.
OLDSCHOOL#6
New York Rangers
Joined: 10.14.2007

Jul 16 @ 8:11 AM ET
I think it destroys our future.

If the Cap goes down, weare at an extremely high risk of not being able to resign Hank, Kreider, Girardi, McD, Hagelin, Gaborik, Callahan, Boyle, Pyatt, Biron, Anisimov just to name a few of the players off the books in the next 2 years. Pretty much every player on that list with the exception of maybe 2 players will require a pretty decent raise, some WAY more than others. If you want to keep this core together, that roster would never be feasible.

Sure, it looks good right now, but two years from now we would be back to wanting to burn Sather's house down again once we lose two or three good players from our core. We will be back to the Rangers of old with overpaid players and not enough young talent. We want to be successful for many years, not just 1 or 2.

We won't be making any longterm decisions until the CBA is resolved either because if we get Nash and the new CBA doesn't have rollbacks or amnesty buyouts and the cap is set at 63M, the Rangers are royally (frank)ed. You could kiss one of Hank, Cally, Girardi, McD goodbye.

- Henrik's Crease

Why should the cap go down? Becasue that little shyt wants it, and listen to that moron Wild owner.. The NHL can't survive long term contracts? After what he did? I say screw em all, sit out the year. Don't fold.

To that post regarding Gaborik's return. It's supposed to be December, look for January at best.
Downeaster
Joined: 01.03.2007

Jul 16 @ 10:02 AM ET
40 goals or making plays?
- NYRPowerPlay


40 goals is a bit misleading. 30 goals is more like it.

Nash has played in the NHL 9 full seasons. He scored 40 goals (41) in the 2003-2004 season and 40 goals (40) in the 2008-2009 season.

He has had 2 40 goal seasons in 9 years, one 40 goal season in the last 7 seasons and no 40 goal seasons the last 3 seasons.

I would classify him as a 30 goal guy, not a 40 goal guy as he has scored 33,32 and 31 since his last 40 goal season and 38, 27 and 31 between 40 goal seasons.

Hagelin is going to score 20 or more, create havoc with the opposition defense with his speed, kill penalties while being a shorthanded threat and is still but 23 years old coming off his rookie season and is only going to get better.

So, do you trade Dubinsky, Hagelin, Miller and a first round pick for a guy that is going to get you 10 goals more than Hagelin and has a 7.8 million dollar cap hit until 2018 with the new CBA rules unknown?

I don't.
gkmkiller
New York Rangers
Location: Oceanside, CA
Joined: 06.07.2009

Jul 16 @ 11:11 AM ET
40 goals is a bit misleading. 30 goals is more like it.

Nash has played in the NHL 9 full seasons. He scored 40 goals (41) in the 2003-2004 season and 40 goals (40) in the 2008-2009 season.

He has had 2 40 goal seasons in 9 years, one 40 goal season in the last 7 seasons and no 40 goal seasons the last 3 seasons.

I would classify him as a 30 goal guy, not a 40 goal guy as he has scored 33,32 and 31 since his last 40 goal season and 38, 27 and 31 between 40 goal seasons.

Hagelin is going to score 20 or more, create havoc with the opposition defense with his speed, kill penalties while being a shorthanded threat and is still but 23 years old coming off his rookie season and is only going to get better.

So, do you trade Dubinsky, Hagelin, Miller and a first round pick for a guy that is going to get you 10 goals more than Hagelin and has a 7.8 million dollar cap hit until 2018 with the new CBA rules unknown?

I don't.

- Downeaster

If you consider Gaborik a 40-goal guy, and I do, then you almost have to call Nash a 40-goal guy as well. Gabby has 3, in 11 seasons and as you said Nash has 2 in 9. I go to talent level. No doubt in my mind Nash has 40-goal talent that just isn't realized in Columbus.

Take this for what it's worth: Nash's career shooting percentage is 12.7 and he has exceed 300 shots in each of the last two seasons. If he had simply hit his career shooting % average he would have netted 39 goals in each of the last two seasons. In fact, prior to the last two seasons where he posted marks of 10.5% and 9.8%, Nash's career shooting % was 13.4%. If he had that mark the last two seasons he would have hit 41.

Shooting % can vary pretty dramatically from year-to-year so it's quite likely a progression to his career mean could well happen. I think he's ben a victim of being a one-man show in Columbus too much and team's defense and goaltending focus on him reducing the effectiveness of his shots. Just my guess but I think if he was in NYC he would be a 40-goal scorer, no doubt. That being said I am not necessarily advocating for the trade you mentioned to be made.
mrhattrick27
New York Rangers
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jul 16 @ 11:33 AM ET
If you consider Gaborik a 40-goal guy, and I do, then you almost have to call Nash a 40-goal guy as well. Gabby has 3, in 11 seasons and as you said Nash has 2 in 9. I go to talent level. No doubt in my mind Nash has 40-goal talent that just isn't realized in Columbus.

Take this for what it's worth: Nash's career shooting percentage is 12.7 and he has exceed 300 shots in each of the last two seasons. If he had simply hit his career shooting % average he would have netted 39 goals in each of the last two seasons. In fact, prior to the last two seasons where he posted marks of 10.5% and 9.8%, Nash's career shooting % was 13.4%. If he had that mark the last two seasons he would have hit 41.

Shooting % can vary pretty dramatically from year-to-year so it's quite likely a progression to his career mean could well happen. I think he's ben a victim of being a one-man show in Columbus too much and team's defense and goaltending focus on him reducing the effectiveness of his shots. Just my guess but I think if he was in NYC he would be a 40-goal scorer, no doubt. That being said I am not necessarily advocating for the trade you mentioned to be made.

- gkmkiller


I guess you are right Glenn. I may be a bit harsh on Nash but I like the youth on this team and want to compliment it, not take away from it. If I could move Dubi+ with Dubi being the only roster player moved I could swallow that massive contract. But I do think that means Gabby is gone when his contract is up if Nash is acquired. Some say who cares cause Nash>Gabby. But is it so much so that trading top prospects is worth having both for 2 years + getting Nash over Gabby. That I am not so sure about.

We lost cause the big guns, Cally included, did not perform in that series, along with our secondary scoring (Steps, Dubi, Boyle, etc) and our best player was a kid with 12 games under his belt and our top point getter was a defensive Dman (Girardi). Our guys perform, we win. You have to expect the guys you are paying to perform actually do so in their next opportunity. We can't focus on that series or playoffs. Have to think big picture on why we lost.
NYRPowerPlay
New York Rangers
Location: Rick Nash to NYR? Ill take it, NY
Joined: 02.11.2012

Jul 16 @ 12:27 PM ET
I guess you are right Glenn. I may be a bit harsh on Nash but I like the youth on this team and want to compliment it, not take away from it. If I could move Dubi+ with Dubi being the only roster player moved I could swallow that massive contract. But I do think that means Gabby is gone when his contract is up if Nash is acquired. Some say who cares cause Nash>Gabby. But is it so much so that trading top prospects is worth having both for 2 years + getting Nash over Gabby. That I am not so sure about.

We lost cause the big guns, Cally included, did not perform in that series, along with our secondary scoring (Steps, Dubi, Boyle, etc) and our best player was a kid with 12 games under his belt and our top point getter was a defensive Dman (Girardi). Our guys perform, we win. You have to expect the guys you are paying to perform actually do so in their next opportunity. We can't focus on that series or playoffs. Have to think big picture on why we lost.

- mrhattrick27


And thats where having guys like Nash comes into play. Nash is a game changer, Nash is the type of player that can make the guys around him better and help them out of a slump. Nash is that "through force of will" kind of player who will get his no matter what.

Remember us constantly burning these boards about how Gaborik isnt shooting enough, how hes not confident in his shot, etc... Nash sure as poop aint shy about shooting, and hes definitely not afraid to skate right into the middle of the ice and rip shots at the net.
jimbro83
New York Rangers
Location: Lets Go Rangers!, NY
Joined: 12.25.2009

Jul 16 @ 12:36 PM ET
Katie Carrera ‏@kcarrera
#Caps announce they've signed Mike Green to a three-year deal worth $18.25 million.

he had better turn things around in a hurry if he is going to prove he is still worth that kind of money
gkmkiller
New York Rangers
Location: Oceanside, CA
Joined: 06.07.2009

Jul 16 @ 12:38 PM ET
Katie Carrera ‏@kcarrera
#Caps announce they've signed Mike Green to a three-year deal worth $18.25 million.

he had better turn things around in a hurry if he is going to prove he is still worth that kind of money

- jimbro83

Better them than us spending that kind of coin on a one-way, albeit dangerous, offensive defenseman. At least the term isn't a killer. Can you imagine if Green got a six-year deal or something? With his concussion history? Ouch.
gkmkiller
New York Rangers
Location: Oceanside, CA
Joined: 06.07.2009

Jul 16 @ 12:39 PM ET
And thats where having guys like Nash comes into play. Nash is a game changer, Nash is the type of player that can make the guys around him better and help them out of a slump. Nash is that "through force of will" kind of player who will get his no matter what.

Remember us constantly burning these boards about how Gaborik isnt shooting enough, how hes not confident in his shot, etc... Nash sure as poop aint shy about shooting, and hes definitely not afraid to skate right into the middle of the ice and rip shots at the net.

- NYRPowerPlay

Of course later we find out that lack of confidence was likely due to the shoulder problem. But I get what you are saying; Nash is a shooter and on this team should be a 40-goal scorer. We'll see if we ever get the chance to find out how good Nash can be.
gkmkiller
New York Rangers
Location: Oceanside, CA
Joined: 06.07.2009

Jul 16 @ 12:41 PM ET
Here's the crazy thought of the day: Sign Semin to a two-year, $12 million deal and immediately turn around and flip him and Dubinsky with our first to Columbus for Nash. We save money on the cap, get the guy we want, Columbus gets their two forwards for Nash and Semin gets to play 22 minutes a night in all situations. Win-win-win, right?
rangerdanger94
New York Rangers
Location: NY
Joined: 05.23.2010

Jul 16 @ 12:44 PM ET
whatever happens, i have full faith that sather will make the right move.

he's a trade master so if he pulls off a trade, i'm confident it will be at least even if not in our favor.

if he doesn't make a trade, then it was obviously too high of an asking price and nothing could've been done.

best case scenario: sign doan or semin
worst case scenario: sather caves and trades one of the "untouchables" for nash (not gonna happen)
most likely scenario: we go into next season with the same roster
Prolific_Scorer
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Sometimes, I wanna be your fri
Joined: 04.01.2011

Jul 16 @ 12:49 PM ET
Katie Carrera ‏@kcarrera
#Caps announce they've signed Mike Green to a three-year deal worth $18.25 million.

he had better turn things around in a hurry if he is going to prove he is still worth that kind of money

- jimbro83

It all went downhill for him in a hurry once they told him he actually had to play defense.
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