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Forums :: Blog World :: Jan Levine: Semin - A Look Behind the Numbers, Should the Rangers Make an Offer?
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jmo16
New York Islanders
Location: No Whining Allowed! This is a blog. Silly Gif's only!
Joined: 02.26.2011

Jul 15 @ 12:52 PM ET
Supposedly Chuck Gormley of CSN Washington says Semin is looking for a two-year deal for $10 million. For teams that miss out on Nash, Doan, etc., that might not be a bad price to pay. I would hesitate to go two years but $5 million per isn't a killer.

Kozlov isn't a bad analogy though I think Semin is more of a natural goal scorer. Kozlov played well with some real good Detroit teams. I think in the right spot Semin can be an excellent player. I do wonder if he would want to play for a coach like Torts, who demands accountability, as the Semin camp has repeatedly stated he wants to play in all situations and be a big-minute player. Not sure if that would happen in NYC.

- gkmkiller


He and Torts would be an Oscar and Felix type relationship but a 2-yr "marriage" vs. Nash for 6 yrs. is the lesser of the risks. Cap could come down and that could get tight with these big salary players. Plus, you don't have to give up prospects or picks for AS. *Added Bonus* Yashin could show him all the good Russian restaurants in the Rockaways....
rangerdanger94
New York Rangers
Location: NY
Joined: 05.23.2010

Jul 15 @ 1:08 PM ET
if you were the rangers GM and howson called you and said Nash for Hagelin, Dubinsky, Miller, and a 1st... would you guys do it?
NYRPowerPlay
New York Rangers
Location: Rick Nash to NYR? Ill take it, NY
Joined: 02.11.2012

Jul 15 @ 1:51 PM ET
if you were the rangers GM and howson called you and said Nash for Hagelin, Dubinsky, Miller, and a 1st... would you guys do it?
- rangerdanger94


Im pretty sure I would.
NYRPowerPlay
New York Rangers
Location: Rick Nash to NYR? Ill take it, NY
Joined: 02.11.2012

Jul 15 @ 1:53 PM ET
Supposedly Chuck Gormley of CSN Washington says Semin is looking for a two-year deal for $10 million. For teams that miss out on Nash, Doan, etc., that might not be a bad price to pay. I would hesitate to go two years but $5 million per isn't a killer.

Kozlov isn't a bad analogy though I think Semin is more of a natural goal scorer. Kozlov played well with some real good Detroit teams. I think in the right spot Semin can be an excellent player. I do wonder if he would want to play for a coach like Torts, who demands accountability, as the Semin camp has repeatedly stated he wants to play in all situations and be a big-minute player. Not sure if that would happen in NYC.

- gkmkiller


Semin at 2yrs for 10mil is very very reasonable. I think that might be a better deal than trading for Nash.

We can then hope Dubi rebounds and we could flip him at the deadline, if necessary.
gkmkiller
New York Rangers
Location: Oceanside, CA
Joined: 06.07.2009

Jul 15 @ 1:56 PM ET
He and Torts would be an Oscar and Felix type relationship but a 2-yr "marriage" vs. Nash for 6 yrs. is the lesser of the risks. Cap could come down and that could get tight with these big salary players. Plus, you don't have to give up prospects or picks for AS. *Added Bonus* Yashin could show him all the good Russian restaurants in the Rockaways....
- jmo16

Oops. I confused Vikto Kozlov with Slava Kozlov. Still, aside from the Detroit reference, everything else still works. If we were to sign Semin we'd better be sure we don't include a NTC. If he busts here we might still be able to move him to a team needing to reach the cap floor and that could still use a second line winger.
gkmkiller
New York Rangers
Location: Oceanside, CA
Joined: 06.07.2009

Jul 15 @ 1:59 PM ET
if you were the rangers GM and howson called you and said Nash for Hagelin, Dubinsky, Miller, and a 1st... would you guys do it?
- rangerdanger94

I like the speed dynamic a trio of Kreider, Hagelin and Gaborik would bring. If I could find a way to make the move without including Hagelin I would but I wouldn't necessarily consider him to be a deal breaker.
NYRPowerPlay
New York Rangers
Location: Rick Nash to NYR? Ill take it, NY
Joined: 02.11.2012

Jul 15 @ 2:04 PM ET
I like the speed dynamic a trio of Kreider, Hagelin and Gaborik would bring. If I could find a way to make the move without including Hagelin I would but I wouldn't necessarily consider him to be a deal breaker.
- gkmkiller


The dynamic is nice, its also nice to think about having all 3 out at the same time... centered by Kreider. No team can match up to that.
jmo16
New York Islanders
Location: No Whining Allowed! This is a blog. Silly Gif's only!
Joined: 02.26.2011

Jul 15 @ 2:18 PM ET
The dynamic is nice, its also nice to think about having all 3 out at the same time... centered by Kreider. No team can match up to that.
- NYRPowerPlay


I noticed Hagelin has a real sneaky wrist shot that he likes to rip between an opposing defensmans legs. Seen him catch the goalie off-guard and score from inside the blueline/top circle with it - not the kind of player you want to lose. I think Semin has more "offensive tools" than Nash but Nash is younger & plays a more complete game. Hard to choose but I think I'd be leaning toward Semin(if he doesn't "mail-it-in") given all the variables & $$$$.
NYRPowerPlay
New York Rangers
Location: Rick Nash to NYR? Ill take it, NY
Joined: 02.11.2012

Jul 15 @ 2:35 PM ET
I noticed Hagelin has a real sneaky wrist shot that he likes to rip between an opposing defensmans legs. Seen him catch the goalie off-guard and score from inside the blueline/top circle with it - not the kind of player you want to lose. I think Semin has more "offensive tools" than Nash but Nash is younger & plays a more complete game. Hard to choose but I think I'd be leaning toward Semin(if he doesn't "mail-it-in") given all the variables & $$$$.
- jmo16


Nash's all around game is better than Semin's and you dont have to worry about a head case.
tomburton99
New York Rangers
Location: NYR distrust, NJ
Joined: 07.13.2009

Jul 15 @ 4:09 PM ET
Nash's all around game is better than Semin's and you dont have to worry about a head case.
- NYRPowerPlay

no you just have deal with 7.8 million dollar cap hit till 2018. great player but he comes to the rangers he better put up at least 70 points per season with that cap hit.
gkmkiller
New York Rangers
Location: Oceanside, CA
Joined: 06.07.2009

Jul 15 @ 4:16 PM ET
no you just have deal with 7.8 million dollar cap hit till 2018. great player but he comes to the rangers he better put up at least 70 points per season with that cap hit.
- tomburton99

I really do think he would easily get 70 points. I'd expect something approaching 40 goals and around 80 points.
tomburton99
New York Rangers
Location: NYR distrust, NJ
Joined: 07.13.2009

Jul 15 @ 4:18 PM ET
I really do think he would easily get 70 points. I'd expect something approaching 40 goals and around 80 points.
- gkmkiller

i would like to think so.
NYRPowerPlay
New York Rangers
Location: Rick Nash to NYR? Ill take it, NY
Joined: 02.11.2012

Jul 15 @ 4:58 PM ET
i would like to think so.
- tomburton99


If he borders 70 with CBJ without a center, I think he easily gets 70 with what we have here.
Prolific_Scorer
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Sometimes, I wanna be your fri
Joined: 04.01.2011

Jul 15 @ 5:24 PM ET
This is the equivalent of a child coming to meet Santa with his list of 100 things. They haven't "dug in." It's the first proposal. And the NHLPA can be expected to come in with its own version of a pie in the sky first proposal. There are 2 1/2 months to go back and forth. This isn't Congress. There will be actual negotiation.

Sadly, they really need to let a couple of teams die. And the league keeps propping up bad situations rather than allowing the market to make the decision. I have a baseball writer friend who says businesses don't do that. But he's wrong. Even McDonald's closes a location that isn't making its nut. Starbucks. Home Depot. If you realize a location isn't going to produce, you have to close it, cut your losses, and move on.

On the other side of that is the union. If they know there is a legitimate chance of jobs being lost, they may concede. But knowing there is a fixed number of jobs available, there's no incentive to be too malleable in the process.

- bodiva88

If this were about to happen, Gary would have already given up on Phoenix already, only he cannot, he already has way too much invested in it personally, in the way of his effort and time to just allow that to happen.
_Zippy_
New Jersey Devils
Location: Threw one in front blocked the, NJ
Joined: 01.26.2012

Jul 15 @ 5:27 PM ET
The owners are such hypocrites. They cry poor yet very few actually pinch pennies as if they really were poor. Look at teams this summer who spent big money in free agency: Minnesota, Dallas (Whitney and Jagr), Calgary (Hudler, Wideman), Colorado (Parenteau, Zanon). Aside from Calgary, those other clubs don't traditionally dabble in free agency like this. Then you have a team like Nashville who did everything they could to keep Suter. Florida's lavish spending spree last year. Hell, Tampa gave crazy money to Carle. These aren't the Rangers, Red Wings or Leafs spending big bucks. It's the small-to-mid-market clubs this summer that are spending huge money. Yet how can the league continue to cry poverty.

That being said I have to believe any CBA that calls for a reduction in the cap will also have to include an amnesty clause. Assuming nearly half of the league is at least $5 million over that projected $52 million cap, how can the league expect clubs to get back under in time for a start to the season. In all likelihood, the negotiations will go down to the wire which means between when the ink dries on the new agreement and the start of the regular season, there might be just 3 or 4 weeks to get under the cap. If you can't stash salary in the AHL or can't exercise an amnesty clause it gets to be impossible for teams.

My thought is if they were to do anything that drastic they wouldn't enforce the new cap ceiling until next season. However, this is just the first shot by the owners. You have to figure they will be willing to at least meet in the middle (57% now, 46% in the proposal with middle ground being somewhere around 51.5%).

- gkmkiller


In all those situations you said, those teams were in dire need of reaching the cap floor, except for Calgary and Minnesota. Why not pursue the big fish if it allows you to reach the floor?
rangerdanger94
New York Rangers
Location: NY
Joined: 05.23.2010

Jul 15 @ 6:19 PM ET
The dynamic is nice, its also nice to think about having all 3 out at the same time... centered by Kreider. No team can match up to that.
- NYRPowerPlay

indeed. i've never really seen a player utilize their speed so effectively like hagelin does.

you notice this kid making plays literally EVERY SINGLE SHIFT he's out there. literally. and he can play on the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd lines.
mrhattrick27
New York Rangers
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jul 15 @ 7:36 PM ET
indeed. i've never really seen a player utilize their speed so effectively like hagelin does.

you notice this kid making plays literally EVERY SINGLE SHIFT he's out there. literally. and he can play on the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd lines.

- rangerdanger94


I wouldn't include Hags. Like you said he is constantly making plays with his speed. He hasn't played a full year yet. I'd like to see what he does with a full year.

Kreider, Hags, Step, DZ, McD are all so young and I can see them all taking a step forward, making our team better.
NYRPowerPlay
New York Rangers
Location: Rick Nash to NYR? Ill take it, NY
Joined: 02.11.2012

Jul 15 @ 8:02 PM ET
I wouldn't include Hags. Like you said he is constantly making plays with his speed. He hasn't played a full year yet. I'd like to see what he does with a full year.

Kreider, Hags, Step, DZ, McD are all so young and I can see them all taking a step forward, making our team better.

- mrhattrick27


40 goals or making plays?
mrhattrick27
New York Rangers
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jul 15 @ 8:07 PM ET
40 goals or making plays?
- NYRPowerPlay


I think Nash is a little overrated. And he gets paid $7.5 mil for 8 years. I think of it more as Hags Miller a first + the other player(s) I'd be spending $7.5m on or Nash. Give me the first one. Again I don't think this team's problem was missing 1 big threat. I think we missed scoring depth. our 3d line wasn't talented enough to be depended on for goal scoring.

EDIT: Also, he is a 30 goal scorer, not a 40 goal scorer. And that is part of my point that he is overrated.
gkmkiller
New York Rangers
Location: Oceanside, CA
Joined: 06.07.2009

Jul 15 @ 8:23 PM ET
In all those situations you said, those teams were in dire need of reaching the cap floor, except for Calgary and Minnesota. Why not pursue the big fish if it allows you to reach the floor?
- _Zippy_

You still miss my point. The perception is if you are spending big money then you must have it. If I go out and buy a $1 million home and a $50,000 car and loans are approved by the lenders then the assumption by nearly everyone is that I can afford it. If I can't afford it how do I look if I turn around months or even weeks later and tell the banks they have to reduce my interest rates because I can't afford the monthly payments. It's perception. If the owners wanted to act like they can't afford it they shouldn't have been spending money before negotiations for a new CBA was set to begin.

The deals I mentioned are in most cases multi-year deals; if it was simply an attempt to reach the cap floor wouldn't you see less of a commitment in term and more on one-year deals with a high salary. I would think so particularly since the owners knew before free agency opened what kind of new CBA proposal they were going to be making to the players.
gkmkiller
New York Rangers
Location: Oceanside, CA
Joined: 06.07.2009

Jul 15 @ 8:25 PM ET
40 goals or making plays?
- NYRPowerPlay

He's the kind of complementary player that helps players like Nash, Kreider or Gaborik score 40. With Hags on the line creating turnovers those snipers get more chances to finish.
gkmkiller
New York Rangers
Location: Oceanside, CA
Joined: 06.07.2009

Jul 15 @ 8:32 PM ET
I think Nash is a little overrated. And he gets paid $7.5 mil for 8 years. I think of it more as Hags Miller a first + the other player(s) I'd be spending $7.5m on or Nash. Give me the first one. Again I don't think this team's problem was missing 1 big threat. I think we missed scoring depth. our 3d line wasn't talented enough to be depended on for goal scoring.

EDIT: Also, he is a 30 goal scorer, not a 40 goal scorer. And that is part of my point that he is overrated.

- mrhattrick27

Rick Nash has twice scored 40 or more goals. The Jackets ranked tied for 27th in goals scored last year and Nash had a hand in 29% of them. He's also had more than 300 shots on goal in each of the last two seasons. He had 30 more than the Rangers leader in that category, Marian Gaborik. To me he undoubtedly has 40-goal talent and for my money that makes him a 40-goal scorer as much as Gaborik is one. Remember Gaborik has just three, 40-goal seasons in 11 NHL seasons and Nash has two in nine.
rmdevil313
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Your a (frank)ing fag and I hope you get crippled- Cranny, MN
Joined: 01.05.2009

Jul 15 @ 8:41 PM ET
If this were about to happen, Gary would have already given up on Phoenix already, only he cannot, he already has way too much invested in it personally, in the way of his effort and time to just allow that to happen.
- Prolific_Scorer


Cutting teams is all great in theory until the game stops growing relatively soon and the NHL stays as the 4th wheel of sports, only soon to be passed by Nascar, Soccer, etc. Bo's example really doesn't fit because McDonald's, Home Depot, and Starbucks all have brand recognition. Everyone knows what to expect going to those places, and on top of that, they generally offer convenience and cheaper prices. Moving south is more like opening up your own new restaurant. You have to expect to be in the red for a few years until you are really sustainable and thriving. It takes much longer in pro sports, especially since there are a ton of other entertainment options. Its Bettman's job to grow the game, because that ultimately leads to more money and rising franchise values (which have been increasing).
TheRussian
San Jose Sharks
Location: Абакан
Joined: 03.24.2011

Jul 15 @ 8:48 PM ET
CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Alexander Semin ($6.700m) / Brad Richards ($6.667m) / Marian Gaborik ($7.500m)
Rick Nash ($7.800m) / Derek Stepan ($0.875m) / Ryan Callahan ($4.275m)
Carl Hagelin ($0.875m) / Chris Kreider ($1.325m) / Mike Rupp ($1.500m)
Taylor Pyatt ($1.550m) / Brian Boyle ($1.700m) / Arron Asham ($1.000m)
Jeff Halpern ($0.700m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Ryan McDonagh ($1.300m) / Dan Girardi ($3.325m)
Anton Stralman ($0.945m) / Marc Staal ($3.975m)
Michael Del Zotto ($0.827m) / Stu Bickel ($0.750m)
Michael Sauer ($1.250m) /
GOALTENDERS
Henrik Lundqvist ($6.875m)
Martin Biron ($1.300m)
BUYOUTS
Chris Drury ($1.667m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $64,680,209; BONUSES: $1,250,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $5,519,791



what do you guys think of this roster?
NYRPowerPlay
New York Rangers
Location: Rick Nash to NYR? Ill take it, NY
Joined: 02.11.2012

Jul 15 @ 9:10 PM ET
CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Alexander Semin ($6.700m) / Brad Richards ($6.667m) / Marian Gaborik ($7.500m)
Rick Nash ($7.800m) / Derek Stepan ($0.875m) / Ryan Callahan ($4.275m)
Carl Hagelin ($0.875m) / Chris Kreider ($1.325m) / Mike Rupp ($1.500m)
Taylor Pyatt ($1.550m) / Brian Boyle ($1.700m) / Arron Asham ($1.000m)
Jeff Halpern ($0.700m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Ryan McDonagh ($1.300m) / Dan Girardi ($3.325m)
Anton Stralman ($0.945m) / Marc Staal ($3.975m)
Michael Del Zotto ($0.827m) / Stu Bickel ($0.750m)
Michael Sauer ($1.250m) /
GOALTENDERS
Henrik Lundqvist ($6.875m)
Martin Biron ($1.300m)
BUYOUTS
Chris Drury ($1.667m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,200,000; CAP PAYROLL: $64,680,209; BONUSES: $1,250,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $5,519,791



what do you guys think of this roster?

- TheRussian


Looks like a 2006 Glen Sather type of roster.
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