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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Carle, Next steps, Prospect camp
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TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jul 5 @ 6:05 PM ET
There's a new buzzword here on Hockeybuzz, and it's apropos for the silly season. It's overpaying. Here's the deal as I see it, about overpaying. When you have a need of adding a upper level player at a position, such as scoring line Winger, puck moving offensive defenseman, or a #1 Goalie. You will likely overpay for it. Whether it's now, in Free Agency, during the rest of the Summer. Or at the trade deadline. There are exceptions of course, as there always is. But the overwhelming majority of the time, teams will overpay to fill top needs. Always have, always will. Lot's of posters are talking about how it's good that the Flyers might go into the Season with available space for the deadline. So they're glad that the Flyers didn't "overpay". And I agree with that. But here's the deal most likely. They're just delaying the overpaying a little while. Who knows how far off. Sure you can add a player like a Groassmann for less then a first round pick or a mid level prospect. but if you really want the top players, regardless of position, to fill an obvious need. They you will likely have to overpay. So the question becomes what are you willing to overpay for, and how much are you willing to overpay. Every team does it at some point. So get ready for the Flyers to again, overpay at some point.
- MJL


Agreed. The only viable alternative is through the draft. That's why I wasn't thrilled with their draft this year. No need to rehash the whole draft the best player thing, but they really needed defense.
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jul 5 @ 6:06 PM ET
I thought Voracek was a key to the Flyers PP, with his ability to carry the puck, establish it in the offensive zone, and funnel the puck to the right area for the Flyers to get into their set. Sure he wasn't perfect and forced some plays. But every player does that, including Giroux. It's an 82 game Season, you can find a few plays for every player who gingerly skated back during a back check during the Season. I saw no signs of a work ethic issue with Voracek.
- MJL


And at 22, he will continue to grow and mature as a player.
FlyersFirst
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.01.2011

Jul 5 @ 6:06 PM ET
There's a new buzzword here on Hockeybuzz, and it's apropos for the silly season. It's overpaying. Here's the deal as I see it, about overpaying. When you have a need of adding a upper level player at a position, such as scoring line Winger, puck moving offensive defenseman, or a #1 Goalie. You will likely overpay for it. Whether it's now, in Free Agency, during the rest of the Summer. Or at the trade deadline. There are exceptions of course, as there always is. But the overwhelming majority of the time, teams will overpay to fill top needs. Always have, always will. Lot's of posters are talking about how it's good that the Flyers might go into the Season with available space for the deadline. So they're glad that the Flyers didn't "overpay". And I agree with that. But here's the deal most likely. They're just delaying the overpaying a little while. Who knows how far off. Sure you can add a player like a Groassmann for less then a first round pick or a mid level prospect. but if you really want the top players, regardless of position, to fill an obvious need. They you will likely have to overpay. So the question becomes what are you willing to overpay for, and how much are you willing to overpay. Every team does it at some point. So get ready for the Flyers to again, overpay at some point.
- MJL


Well, the "Overpay" concept is a matter of timing too. I think that everyone looks at a guys salary through the lense of last year or years past and never adequatly consider the future and how these numbers are going to stand up over the years. New contracts like Parise etc have a long lifespan and his 7M cap hit may look cheap when his contract expires in like the year 2035 when we have landed on Mars and go to games in our flying saucers
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

Jul 5 @ 6:07 PM ET
There's a new buzzword here on Hockeybuzz, and it's apropos for the silly season. It's overpaying. Here's the deal as I see it, about overpaying. When you have a need of adding a upper level player at a position, such as scoring line Winger, puck moving offensive defenseman, or a #1 Goalie. You will likely overpay for it. Whether it's now, in Free Agency, during the rest of the Summer. Or at the trade deadline. There are exceptions of course, as there always is. But the overwhelming majority of the time, teams will overpay to fill top needs. Always have, always will. Lot's of posters are talking about how it's good that the Flyers might go into the Season with available space for the deadline. So they're glad that the Flyers didn't "overpay". And I agree with that. But here's the deal most likely. They're just delaying the overpaying a little while. Who knows how far off. Sure you can add a player like a Groassmann for less then a first round pick or a mid level prospect. but if you really want the top players, regardless of position, to fill an obvious need. They you will likely have to overpay. So the question becomes what are you willing to overpay for, and how much are you willing to overpay. Every team does it at some point. So get ready for the Flyers to again, overpay at some point.
- MJL



6 yrs @5.5 is overpayment. Heres a new word it's called opportunity cost. Tying up that 5.5 mill doesn't let you get to next years ufas or make any other mid season moves which has killed us in the past....
Flyers2821
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 01.16.2010

Jul 5 @ 6:07 PM ET
And at 22, he will continue to grow and mature as a player.
- TheGreat28


okay so... what is the word on him at this point? Been pretty silent.

When do RFA need to be signed by?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 5 @ 6:07 PM ET
Has there been any word at all on Voracek? When do RFA need to be signed by?
- Flyers2821


By the start of the Season hopefully. Voracek will be signed.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 5 @ 6:10 PM ET
Well, the "Overpay" concept is a matter of timing too. I think that everyone looks at a guys salary through the lense of last year or years past and never adequatly consider the future and how these numbers are going to stand up over the years. New contracts like Parise etc have a long lifespan and his 7M cap hit may look cheap when his contract expires in like the year 2035 when we have landed on Mars and go to games in our flying saucers
- FlyersFirst


We saw that with JVR's deal. Overpayment now, possible steal down the road. Same with Hartnell. 4.25M for a 37 goal scorer is a pretty good deal. But the years are a factor also. So is spending 98M.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 5 @ 6:10 PM ET
Agreed. The only viable alternative is through the draft. That's why I wasn't thrilled with their draft this year. No need to rehash the whole draft the best player thing, but they really needed defense.
- TheGreat28


Well they did draft 4 defenseman.
JoeRussomanno
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: me bitter? F-no i think it's hilarious
Joined: 12.14.2011

Jul 5 @ 6:11 PM ET
Well they did draft 4 defenseman.
- MJL

also people were female doging today that they have too many defensemen.
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

Jul 5 @ 6:12 PM ET
also people were female doging today that they have too many defensemen.
- JoeRussomanno

We're flyers fans were not gonna be happy till we have a cup again
FlyersFirst
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.01.2011

Jul 5 @ 6:12 PM ET
We saw that with JVR's deal. Overpayment now, possible steal down the road. Same with Hartnell. 4.25M for a 37 goal scorer is a pretty good deal. But the years are a factor also. So is spending 98M.
- MJL


I fully agree with both concepts there.
I hope/pray some will say one day what a great steal we got with #30 between the pipes (I for one have high hopes and am still a Bryz backer).
FlyerMike18
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 03.07.2009

Jul 5 @ 6:12 PM ET
There's a new buzzword here on Hockeybuzz, and it's apropos for the silly season. It's overpaying. Here's the deal as I see it, about overpaying. When you have a need of adding a upper level player at a position, such as scoring line Winger, puck moving offensive defenseman, or a #1 Goalie. You will likely overpay for it. Whether it's now, in Free Agency, during the rest of the Summer. Or at the trade deadline. There are exceptions of course, as there always is. But the overwhelming majority of the time, teams will overpay to fill top needs. Always have, always will. Lot's of posters are talking about how it's good that the Flyers might go into the Season with available space for the deadline. So they're glad that the Flyers didn't "overpay". And I agree with that. But here's the deal most likely. They're just delaying the overpaying a little while. Who knows how far off. Sure you can add a player like a Groassmann for less then a first round pick or a mid level prospect. but if you really want the top players, regardless of position, to fill an obvious need. They you will likely have to overpay. So the question becomes what are you willing to overpay for, and how much are you willing to overpay. Every team does it at some point. So get ready for the Flyers to again, overpay at some point.
- MJL


can't speak for everyone else, but i see "overpayment" as a relative, subjective term. meaning that when say i don't want the flyers to overpay for a player, all i mean is that i don't want them to cross a particular tipping point that makes the deal not worth it in my estimation. completely subjective

if the payment is what it takes to get a top-flight player at a particular position and making that move is to the overall benefit of the team then i don't view it as an "overpayment", regardless of any objective price range that people feel is suitable for the player
JoeRussomanno
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: me bitter? F-no i think it's hilarious
Joined: 12.14.2011

Jul 5 @ 6:13 PM ET
We're flyers fans were not gonna be happy till we have a cup again
- Philly1980

Objection Your Honor, please see the booing of Cole Hamels!
puckhead17
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Old Time Hockey
Joined: 08.14.2011

Jul 5 @ 6:13 PM ET
I fully agree with both concepts there.
I hope/pray some will say what a great steal we got with #30 between the pipes (I for one have high hopes and am still a Bryz backer).

- FlyersFirst



we really have no choice
GirouxForTheShow
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Fuck you raff
Joined: 01.04.2009

Jul 5 @ 6:14 PM ET
Let me rephrase: I'm not a proponent of trading half of the core for Nash, Ryan, or Weber.

Never was. Never have been.

My mindset is this (let's concentrate on Weber because...well...Nash and Ryan shouldn't need to be discussed....): Say we trade Mez, Czech, Read, and 2 firsts. I don't even know if that's enough to get the guy, first off. So that is the "at least" level. Anything higher would most likely include Brayden or Cooter. If either of them go anywhere, I will find Homer and I will throttle him.

Provided I get past security.

Moving on.

If we go back to that "at least" offer....people say that "Weber is the kind of player that brings championships". I agree. I agree wholeheartedly. HOWEVER. Would he bring us a championship without Czech, Mez, or Read? Let alone those 2 firsts for bolstering us in the future. I'm not too sure.

Basically, I don't want to see half the team traded for Weber because of 2 reasons.

1. In emphatically plugging the hole on D, we open up other holes up front
2. I think the Flyers have a better chance to host a parade with Czech, Mez, and Read than they do with Weber.

Now, next offseason, when Kimmo comes off the books and we already have the space we do now- then it's all hands on deck. 120+ mil.

I think I've explained

- Giroux_Is_God


In all honesty, I think Weber, right now is the least likely for the Flyers to trade for. Price is too high. Nash secondly, and then Ryan being the most likely, but even then the price would have to be something that wouldn't blow Murray out of the water. Read, Gusty/Bourdon, Cousins/Wellwood and a 1st...

I wonder if Ryans comments about him "being comfortable playing in Philly" is very interesting and I wonder if it affects the trade package teams offer, knowing his contract is up in 2 years.
JoeRussomanno
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: me bitter? F-no i think it's hilarious
Joined: 12.14.2011

Jul 5 @ 6:14 PM ET
we really have no choice
- puckhead17

Oh stop it already.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 5 @ 6:15 PM ET
can't speak for everyone else, but i see "overpayment" as a relative, subjective term. meaning that when say i don't want the flyers to overpay for a player, all i mean is that i don't want them to cross a particular tipping point that makes the deal not worth it in my estimation. completely subjective

if the payment is what it takes to get a top-flight player at a particular situation and making that move is to the overall benefit of the team than i don't view it as an "overpayment", regardless of any objective price range that people feel is suitable for a player

- FlyerMike18


Yes, that's why I added at the end that it's what are you willing to overpay for, and for how much. As an example, I really don't want to trade Couturier or B Schenn. But I would for Weber. But in a lot of cases, even if it makes the team better, it can still be an overpayment.
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

Jul 5 @ 6:16 PM ET
Objection Your Honor, please see the booing of Cole Hamels!
- JoeRussomanno

You know I hate that poop
JoeRussomanno
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: me bitter? F-no i think it's hilarious
Joined: 12.14.2011

Jul 5 @ 6:17 PM ET
You know I hate that poop
- Philly1980

could you clarify what that poop is plz?
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jul 5 @ 6:17 PM ET
Well they did draft 4 defenseman.
- MJL


Touche.

But they need some blue chip prospects on D. The reality is that MAB, Gus, Manning and every other prospect in the system are 5-6 guys at best.

Maata, Thrower and a few others have the potential to be solid 3-4 if not a 2 when paired with a true number 1.
Philly1980
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.30.2011

Jul 5 @ 6:18 PM ET
could you clarify what that poop is plz?
- JoeRussomanno


Skat lol ... Booing a guy that won the world series and was the MVP lol
JoeRussomanno
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: me bitter? F-no i think it's hilarious
Joined: 12.14.2011

Jul 5 @ 6:19 PM ET
Skat lol
- Philly1980

puckhead17
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Old Time Hockey
Joined: 08.14.2011

Jul 5 @ 6:19 PM ET
Oh stop it already.
- JoeRussomanno


No really, we have to back him, we really have no choice


All the (Suter Parise), overpayment "good riddance" stuff will start up again when Weber is available

If Poile hasn't learned anything, he should ride around with Howson door to door for the traveling auction
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 5 @ 6:19 PM ET
Touche.

But they need some blue chip prospects on D. The reality is that MAB, Gus, Manning and every other prospect in the system are 5-6 guys at best.

Maata, Thrower and a few others have the potential to be solid 3-4 if not a 2 when paired with a true number 1.

- TheGreat28


I agree on the Flyers D prospect stable. But then again, the Flyers just did add a 22 year old D man who likely has the same potential as Maata and Thrower. At least what I've heard about them. Because truthfully, I know very little about them.
JoeRussomanno
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: me bitter? F-no i think it's hilarious
Joined: 12.14.2011

Jul 5 @ 6:21 PM ET
No really, we have to back him, we really have no choice


All the (Suter Parise), overpayment "good riddance" stuff will start up again when Weber is available

If Poile hasn't learned anything, he should ride around with Howson door to door for the traveling auction

- puckhead17

yea but you act like we got stuck with Garth Snow for 9 years
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