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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Cap Update Pt 2, A Look at Lower Round Draftees
Author Message
leon neon
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: GA
Joined: 02.16.2009

Jun 26 @ 12:06 PM ET
i'm so confused when it comes to the cap -- some people say they have a little more than 3 to play with after signing carle and jake......some say we have the money for both ryan and parise....who the hell knows.
- flyersfan51


If you go back to Bill's article...

We have 11 Forwards signed (includes Shelley and the usual's / Doesn't include Jagr, Voracek, Sestito, Harry z.). Teams typically carry 13 forwards. So, we need 2 (or 3 guys - if you minus Shelley)

We have 7 Defenseman signed (includes Pronger and the ususals / Doesn't include Carle and Bourdon). Teams typically carry 7 forwards. So, we need 0 (or 1 guys - if you minus Pronger)

We need 1 back-up goalie.

We have $11.4MM (not including Pronger or Shelley salaries) to spend on the needed players. Theoretically speaking... We could get Parise, but we would be seriously limited on signing other needed players. Ryan is more realistic because it's a trade where we'd ship salary to ANA which may be a wash.



Flyers2821
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 01.16.2010

Jun 26 @ 12:06 PM ET
He already came out and said he won't go to the Rangers under any circumstances, so it's safe to assume that he'll be just as reluctant to jump ship to the Devils' other chief rival.

Even if there was a slim chance he would consider becoming a Flyer, they can't compete with the amount of money the Wild are going to throw out there, nor can the Flyers compete with the lure of having linemates like Crosby (a fellow Shattuck St. Mary's alum) and/or Malkin.

- Tomahawk


Flyers absolutely can compete with it as they have Claude Giroux for Parise to play with. When it comes to playmaking (which is what Parise should be looking for in a linemate), claude giroux is right up there with the best of them in the league.
Flyers2821
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 01.16.2010

Jun 26 @ 12:09 PM ET
If you go back to Bill's article...

We have 11 Forwards signed (includes Shelley and the usual's / Doesn't include Jagr, Voracek, Sestito, Harry z.). Teams typically carry 13 forwards. So, we need 2 (or 3 guys - if you minus Shelley)

We have 7 Defenseman signed (includes Pronger and the ususals / Doesn't include Carle and Bourdon). Teams typically carry 7 forwards. So, we need 0 (or 1 guys - if you minus Pronger)

We need 1 back-up goalie.

We have $11.4MM (not including Pronger or Shelley salaries) to spend on the needed players. Theoretically speaking... We could get Parise, but we would be seriously limited on signing other needed players. Ryan is more realistic because it's a trade where we'd ship salary to ANA which may be a wash.

- leon neon


The best way to attack this is to us CapGeek and account for Pronger since he will count against the cap up until the regular season. Also, need to keep in mind the figure on CapGeek does not account for players who played last season for the Flyers and count against their cap during the summer. (offseason cap accounts for time played the previous season with the club).

Using CapGeek and accounting for Prongers figure gets you pretty damn close to their offseason number.

There is also an offseason exception of some sort that allows you to exceed the cap. I know nothing about this so dont account for it when trying to understand the cap.

This is pretty damn close to their real cap situation with a few exceptions.

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER

FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / _________________
Wayne Simmonds ($1.750m) / Danny Briere ($6.500m) / Brayden Schenn ($3.110m)
Eric Wellwood ($0.580m) / Sean Couturier ($1.375m) / Matt Read ($0.900m)
Zac Rinaldo ($0.544m) / Maxime Talbot ($1.750m) / ________________
Extra Forward: Jody Shelley ($1.100m)

DEFENSEMEN
Braydon Coburn ($4.500m) / Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m)
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m) / Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m)
Luke Schenn ($3.600m) / ___________________
Extra D-Man: Andreas Lilja ($0.738m)
LTIR During Season: Chris Pronger ($4.921m)

GOALTENDERS
Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.667m)
_____________
------
SALARY CAP: $70,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $58,818,373; BONUSES: $2,705,000
CAP SPACE (19-man roster): $11,481,627
leon neon
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: GA
Joined: 02.16.2009

Jun 26 @ 12:09 PM ET
I think Parise would come here....I haven't read anything stating otherwise....if you have, i'd love to read it.
- flyersfan51


Parise stated that he did not want to be a Ranger... A friend of the devil is a friend of mine?
LW2530
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Anyone have some change?, FL
Joined: 09.12.2006

Jun 26 @ 12:09 PM ET
Getting Ryan is even a long shot. I believe they want Schenn and the Flyers refuse to give him up. So looks like they can shop Ryan elsewhere if thats the case.

Flyers are in good shape even if they dont land a Nash, Parise, or Ryan.

- stveshdy


Not sure how much longer Ryan is signed for, but it appears it's a lock he'll be playing in Philly when that deal is up. I'd have to think that, among other things, weakens his trade value. How many teams are willing to pony up all those young assets required in a trade for a 2-3 year rental? My gut says Holmgren adds enough 1st round picks with a few warm bodies to make it happen.
aosplayo
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 01.14.2008

Jun 26 @ 12:12 PM ET
Parise stated that he did not want to be a Ranger... A friend of the devil is a friend of mine?
- leon neon




Thatd be a big FU to Lamarillo though no? Someone on NHL Network said they couldnt see Zach going to an Atlantic Division team out of respect. Who knows, money talks
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 26 @ 12:13 PM ET
Flyers absolutely can compete with it as they have Claude Giroux for Parise to play with. When it comes to playmaking (which is what Parise should be looking for in a linemate), claude giroux is right up there with the best of them in the league.
- Flyers2821



We all love Giroux, but Crosby and Malkin are head and shoulders above any other player in the league alone, not to mention how good they are when they're together on a line or on the PP. If any team in the Atlantic has a shot at Parise, it's the Pens.
Flyers2821
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 01.16.2010

Jun 26 @ 12:15 PM ET
We all love Giroux, but Crosby and Malkin are head and shoulders above any other player in the league alone, not to mention how good they are when they're together on a line or on the PP. If any team in the Atlantic has a shot at Parise, it's the Pens.
- Tomahawk


Yes they are, but when it comes to what Parise needs as a goal scorer... Giroux is right there. Crosby is ideal because he is such a great playmaker but Malkin scores 50 goals a season himself and Parise is a goal scorer.
Daman
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jun 26 @ 12:17 PM ET
Now that Staal has been traded, I've considered writing a blog how the Flyers have the best third line in hockey. Coots Read and Simmonds (although this may change).

Any thoughts?
Flyers2821
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 01.16.2010

Jun 26 @ 12:18 PM ET
Now that Staal has been traded, I've considered writing a blog how the Flyers have the best third line in hockey. Coots Read and Simmonds (although this may change).

Any thoughts?

- Daman


Simmonds was playing with Schenn and Briere on the 2nd line for a while now hasn't he?

Wasn't the 3rd line Voracek-Couturier-Read?
flyersfan51
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, NJ
Joined: 10.04.2006

Jun 26 @ 12:20 PM ET
Utilize CapGeek. It gets you pretty close, just doesn't account for certain things but it gets you pretty close to the real number.

And FYI, everyone acts like they know but they don't. There is a reason guys get paid so much to be capologists. Just understanding it is more than half the battle.

- Flyers2821


wow -- this site is awesome.....bad news for the company I work for - haha.

So i entered Parise at 7 and Jake at 2.75, signed Biron and Bourdon as back ups and came up with this: Next up I'm going to do one with Bobby Ryan.

FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Zach Parise ($7.000m)
Matt Read ($0.900m) / Danny Briere ($6.500m) / Jakub Voracek ($2.750m)
Wayne Simmonds ($1.750m) / Sean Couturier ($1.375m) / Brayden Schenn ($3.110m)
Jody Shelley ($1.100m) / Maxime Talbot ($1.750m) / Eric Wellwood ($0.580m)
Zac Rinaldo ($0.544m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m) / Chris Pronger ($4.921m)
Braydon Coburn ($4.500m) / Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m)
Luke Schenn ($3.600m) / Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m)
Andreas Lilja ($0.738m) / Marc-Andre Bourdon ($0.709m)
GOALTENDERS
Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.667m)
Martin Biron ($0.875m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $70,152,123; BONUSES: $2,705,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $147,877
Daman
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jun 26 @ 12:20 PM ET
Yes they are, but when it comes to what Parise needs as a goal scorer... Giroux is right there. Crosby is ideal because he is such a great playmaker but Malkin scores 50 goals a season himself and Parise is a goal scorer.
- Flyers2821


Swimming in the reality pool for a minute, there isnt a GM alive that would take Crosby over Giroux. Part of being an executive is risk management...you do the analysis.

Malkin has mad skills but is a bit of a P---- (cat). I think he has been exposed.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 26 @ 12:21 PM ET
i'm so confused when it comes to the cap -- some people say they have a little more than 3 to play with after signing carle and jake......some say we have the money for both ryan and parise....who the hell knows.
- flyersfan51



It's confusing because so many people are going off in a hundred different directions. Use the Cap Calculator at Capgeek.
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Jun 26 @ 12:21 PM ET
Now that Staal has been traded, I've considered writing a blog how the Flyers have the best third line in hockey. Coots Read and Simmonds (although this may change).

Any thoughts?

- Daman


I think you should write it and post the link once finished.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 26 @ 12:22 PM ET
Swimming in the reality pool for a minute, there isnt a GM alive that would take Crosby over Giroux. Part of being an executive is risk management...you do the analysis.

Malkin has mad skills but is a bit of a P---- (cat). I think he has been exposed.

- Daman



bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Jun 26 @ 12:22 PM ET
Swimming in the reality pool for a minute, there isnt a GM alive that would take Crosby over Giroux. Part of being an executive is risk management...you do the analysis.

Malkin has mad skills but is a bit of a P---- (cat). I think he has been exposed.

- Daman


May want to double-check the ph levels of your pool.
Flyers2821
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 01.16.2010

Jun 26 @ 12:23 PM ET
wow -- this site is awesome.....bad news for the company I work for - haha.

So i entered Parise at 7 and Jake at 2.75, signed Biron and Bourdon as back ups and came up with this: Next up I'm going to do one with Bobby Ryan.

FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Zach Parise ($7.000m)
Matt Read ($0.900m) / Danny Briere ($6.500m) / Jakub Voracek ($2.750m)
Wayne Simmonds ($1.750m) / Sean Couturier ($1.375m) / Brayden Schenn ($3.110m)
Jody Shelley ($1.100m) / Maxime Talbot ($1.750m) / Eric Wellwood ($0.580m)
Zac Rinaldo ($0.544m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m) / Chris Pronger ($4.921m)
Braydon Coburn ($4.500m) / Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m)
Luke Schenn ($3.600m) / Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m)
Andreas Lilja ($0.738m) / Marc-Andre Bourdon ($0.709m)
GOALTENDERS
Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.667m)
Martin Biron ($0.875m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $70,152,123; BONUSES: $2,705,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $147,877

- flyersfan51


You think Voracek only gets a $500k raise? I was thinking if they sign him it is more like 3.25-3.5

As long as you keep Pronger in your calculations, I am pretty sure it pans out to be pretty realistic.

Also, don't forget the option to waive Shelley when you are messing around with this! Very likely possibility if they need cap space.
Flyers2821
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 01.16.2010

Jun 26 @ 12:25 PM ET

- Tomahawk


If Crosby was healthy, I would agree it is absurd. However, I think if you put Crosby and Giroux next to each other and told every GM to pick who they wanted to start a team with in their current condition... you would have some GM's leaning towards Giroux. Simply based off health.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 26 @ 12:26 PM ET
The best way to attack this is to us CapGeek and account for Pronger since he will count against the cap up until the regular season. Also, need to keep in mind the figure on CapGeek does not account for players who played last season for the Flyers and count against their cap during the summer. (offseason cap accounts for time played the previous season with the club).

Using CapGeek and accounting for Prongers figure gets you pretty damn close to their offseason number.

There is also an offseason exception of some sort that allows you to exceed the cap. I know nothing about this so dont account for it when trying to understand the cap.

This is pretty damn close to their real cap situation with a few exceptions.

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER

FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / _________________
Wayne Simmonds ($1.750m) / Danny Briere ($6.500m) / Brayden Schenn ($3.110m)
Eric Wellwood ($0.580m) / Sean Couturier ($1.375m) / Matt Read ($0.900m)
Zac Rinaldo ($0.544m) / Maxime Talbot ($1.750m) / ________________
Extra Forward: Jody Shelley ($1.100m)

DEFENSEMEN
Braydon Coburn ($4.500m) / Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m)
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m) / Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m)
Luke Schenn ($3.600m) / ___________________
Extra D-Man: Andreas Lilja ($0.738m)
LTIR During Season: Chris Pronger ($4.921m)

GOALTENDERS
Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.667m)
_____________
------
SALARY CAP: $70,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $58,818,373; BONUSES: $2,705,000
CAP SPACE (19-man roster): $11,481,627

- Flyers2821



That's not putting you even remotely close to the off season Cap figure. Your not accounting for Walker, Bartulis, or any of the players on 2 way deals such as
Bourdon, Voracek, Holmstrom, Zolnerczyiek, etc.
flyersfan51
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, NJ
Joined: 10.04.2006

Jun 26 @ 12:27 PM ET
You think Voracek only gets a $500k raise? I was thinking if they sign him it is more like 3.25-3.5

As long as you keep Pronger in your calculations, I am pretty sure it pans out to be pretty realistic.

Also, don't forget the option to waive Shelley when you are messing around with this! Very likely possibility if they need cap space.

- Flyers2821


I agree with you - he'll get somewhere between 3 and 3.5....but still.....they should be under the cap and field a great line up.
Flyers2821
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 01.16.2010

Jun 26 @ 12:31 PM ET
Teams can exceed the salary cap's upper limit by 10 percent during the off-season.

The following count toward the team's cap payroll:
- All players on one-way contracts, regardless of where (or if) they were playing the previous year.
- All players on two-way contracts, in proportion to the number of days spent on an NHL roster the previous season.
- All restricted free agents who have been extended a qualifying offer (while the offer is valid), with one-way qualifying offers counting in full and two-way qualifying offers counting as described in No. 2.
- All restricted free agents signed to an offer sheet (such players count against the team extending the offer sheet while it is still valid).
- All buyouts.

Example: A player with a cap hit of $500,000 and signed to a two-way contract was on an NHL roster for 94 days in the previous season, which was 188 days long. During the off-season, he will count [$500,000/188] x 94 = $250,000.

Example: A player with a cap hit of $1.25 million and signed to a one-way contract was assigned to the AHL in the previous season and spent no days on an NHL roster. The player will still count $1.25 million during the off-season.

Please note CapGeek.com does not yet calculate the off-season cap. Our off-season cap estimates are a projection of opening-day cap space.
aosplayo
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 01.14.2008

Jun 26 @ 12:32 PM ET
I agree with you - he'll get somewhere between 3 and 3.5....but still.....they should be under the cap and field a great line up.
- flyersfan51




Yup, they are in good position to give this team another year to gell together and focus on team defense. Especially since next year they will have some significant contracts comin off the board.

Im sure theyll also have an eye on Nashville as the season progresses and the trade deadline.

RooNosHockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bear, DE
Joined: 10.25.2011

Jun 26 @ 12:32 PM ET
Bill's break-down of the cap is another reason why I think either Coburn or Meszaros will be traded. We currently have 6 defenseman that are capable of being in the top 4, and another 3 capable of playing regular 3rd pairing minutes. IMO lilja, Bourdon, or Gus have to get that 6th man, and the other 7th.

While you guys might not like the idea of trading Meszaros and Voracek for Ryan, it would also save you 3 million in the long run in cap space, as opposed if you trade Read and Meszaros the cap hits would be a push.

However, regardless of if there is a bonus cushion or not, the Flyers will get Schenn's cap down to 1.7 or whatever it is when Schenn plays 1 game in the AHL next season. So no need to worry about that.
mochoson
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Josi is the most overrated player in the nhl. He isnt even close to a top ten. - James_Tanner, NJ
Joined: 02.28.2009

Jun 26 @ 12:32 PM ET
So how does everyone feel about grabbing either Latendresse or Mueller over Jagr?
Flyers2821
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 01.16.2010

Jun 26 @ 12:32 PM ET
That's not putting you even remotely close to the off season Cap figure. Your not accounting for Walker, Bartulis, or any of the players on 2 way deals such as
Bourdon, Voracek, Holmstrom, Zolnerczyiek, etc.

- MJL


Voracek had a 2-way deal?
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