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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Cap Update Pt 2, A Look at Lower Round Draftees
Author Message
canadianpenfan
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Calgary
Joined: 05.13.2010

Jun 26 @ 7:23 PM ET
Seen a few folks concerned about the amount of salary that the Flyers will be devoting to the defense if we keep all the d-men we have now. Some have even listed it among the reasons they want to see one of the d-man traded in the deal for Ryan or someone else.

So I thought it would be interesting to see what some other teams spent on their top six defensemen last season, and compare it to what the Flyers would have to spend next year if they kept everyone.

I didn't look at every team. I chose playoff teams that I felt had good defenses, or were described as such by the pundits. I used last seasons numbers, obtained from Capgeek, and took the six highest paid defensemen on the roster for each team. In cases where there were more than six top dollar d-men, I took the six that played the most games.

One flaw in this exercise is that it compares next season for the Flyers to last season for the other teams. So the other team's numbers could theoretically increase once they acquire/trade/re-sign players. I thought about trying to estimate this year's D cap hits for the other teams, but that involved too much guessing about who was going to wind up where, so I just used last year's numbers.

Not a perfect system, but it should give us a rough idea if we are going to be just crazy out of whack with the rest of the league next year.

Here are the numbers, in no particular order:

LA: $21,944,643

Detroit: $22,200,000

Chicago: $22,205,128

Vancouver: $19,775,000

Boston: $17,116,667

Nashville: $17,390,000


The Flyers cap hit for their top 6 will be $23,820,833 next season if nobody is moved (obvs this doesn't count Pronger's salary). So it does seem like Philly would be at or near the top of the scale next year. But to me it doesn't seem absurdly high, or completely off the charts. In fact if some of those other teams wind up with a big free agent or two, they could be paying as much or more than the Flyers when it's all said and done.

So to me this doesn't seem too terribly obscene. Certainly not bad enough that we should feel like we absolutely must trade a d-man in any deal we make just to reduce the amount of cap allocated to the defense.

Thoughts?

- BringBack25



Pittsburgh 18.2 with Letang on a good deal and you got a front row seat to what that paid for in the first round.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 26 @ 7:23 PM ET
Will Carle really cost 44.75 million? Any other UFA Dmen of comparable skill?
- jstross


4.75M for Carle would be a bargain!
Don'tForgetTocchet
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ground Zero Brooklyn
Joined: 02.08.2007

Jun 26 @ 7:24 PM ET
Seen a few folks concerned about the amount of salary that the Flyers will be devoting to the defense if we keep all the d-men we have now. Some have even listed it among the reasons they want to see one of the d-man traded in the deal for Ryan or someone else.

So I thought it would be interesting to see what some other teams spent on their top six defensemen last season, and compare it to what the Flyers would have to spend next year if they kept everyone.

I didn't look at every team. I chose playoff teams that I felt had good defenses, or were described as such by the pundits. I used last seasons numbers, obtained from Capgeek, and took the six highest paid defensemen on the roster for each team. In cases where there were more than six top dollar d-men, I took the six that played the most games.

One flaw in this exercise is that it compares next season for the Flyers to last season for the other teams. So the other team's numbers could theoretically increase once they acquire/trade/re-sign players. I thought about trying to estimate this year's D cap hits for the other teams, but that involved too much guessing about who was going to wind up where, so I just used last year's numbers.

Not a perfect system, but it should give us a rough idea if we are going to be just crazy out of whack with the rest of the league next year.

Here are the numbers, in no particular order:

LA: $21,944,643

Detroit: $22,200,000

Chicago: $22,205,128

Vancouver: $19,775,000

Boston: $17,116,667

Nashville: $17,390,000


The Flyers cap hit for their top 6 will be $23,820,833 next season if nobody is moved (obvs this doesn't count Pronger's salary). So it does seem like Philly would be at or near the top of the scale next year. But to me it doesn't seem absurdly high, or completely off the charts. In fact if some of those other teams wind up with a big free agent or two, they could be paying as much or more than the Flyers when it's all said and done.

So to me this doesn't seem too terribly obscene. Certainly not bad enough that we should feel like we absolutely must trade a d-man in any deal we make just to reduce the amount of cap allocated to the defense.

Thoughts?

- BringBack25


are you estimating a carle salary for this number?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 26 @ 7:25 PM ET
Pittsburgh 18.2 with Letang on a good deal and you got a front row seat to what that paid for in the first round.
- canadianpenfan


Tell me that deal isn't a bargain right now.
Duran76
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Calmer than you are dude, PA
Joined: 07.25.2010

Jun 26 @ 7:25 PM ET
Seen a few folks concerned about the amount of salary that the Flyers will be devoting to the defense if we keep all the d-men we have now. Some have even listed it among the reasons they want to see one of the d-man traded in the deal for Ryan or someone else.

So I thought it would be interesting to see what some other teams spent on their top six defensemen last season, and compare it to what the Flyers would have to spend next year if they kept everyone.

I didn't look at every team. I chose playoff teams that I felt had good defenses, or were described as such by the pundits. I used last seasons numbers, obtained from Capgeek, and took the six highest paid defensemen on the roster for each team. In cases where there were more than six top dollar d-men, I took the six that played the most games.

One flaw in this exercise is that it compares next season for the Flyers to last season for the other teams. So the other team's numbers could theoretically increase once they acquire/trade/re-sign players. I thought about trying to estimate this year's D cap hits for the other teams, but that involved too much guessing about who was going to wind up where, so I just used last year's numbers.

Not a perfect system, but it should give us a rough idea if we are going to be just crazy out of whack with the rest of the league next year.

Here are the numbers, in no particular order:

LA: $21,944,643

Detroit: $22,200,000

Chicago: $22,205,128

Vancouver: $19,775,000

Boston: $17,116,667

Nashville: $17,390,000


The Flyers cap hit for their top 6 will be $23,820,833 next season if nobody is moved (obvs this doesn't count Pronger's salary). So it does seem like Philly would be at or near the top of the scale next year. But to me it doesn't seem absurdly high, or completely off the charts. In fact if some of those other teams wind up with a big free agent or two, they could be paying as much or more than the Flyers when it's all said and done.

So to me this doesn't seem too terribly obscene. Certainly not bad enough that we should feel like we absolutely must trade a d-man in any deal we make just to reduce the amount of cap allocated to the defense.

Thoughts?

- BringBack25



Those are all very good teams. Seems that good teams spend wisely on defense.
Don'tForgetTocchet
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ground Zero Brooklyn
Joined: 02.08.2007

Jun 26 @ 7:26 PM ET
also look at nashville's number... that will change drastically and soon if they were to keep the same players
canadianpenfan
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Calgary
Joined: 05.13.2010

Jun 26 @ 7:27 PM ET
Tell me that deal isn't a bargain right now.
- MJL



No doubt. He'll be expensive in 2 years though, probably too much so for us to keep him.
Flyers1218
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: New York, NY
Joined: 06.28.2007

Jun 26 @ 7:28 PM ET
Bill, I completely get what you are saying and I appreciate the hard work you did crunching all those numbers.... that said:

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Zach Parise ($7.250m)
Wayne Simmonds ($1.750m) / Danny Briere ($6.500m) / Brayden Schenn ($3.110m)
Jakub Voracek ($3.000m) / Sean Couturier ($1.375m) / Matt Read ($0.900m)
Eric Wellwood ($0.580m) / Maxime Talbot ($1.750m) / Brandon Prust ($0.900m)
Zac Rinaldo ($0.544m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m) / Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m)
Braydon Coburn ($4.500m) / Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m)
Luke Schenn ($3.600m) / Matt Carle ($4.750m)
Marc-Andre Bourdon ($0.900m) /
GOALTENDERS
Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.667m)
Martin Biron ($0.800m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $69,659,444; BONUSES: $2,705,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $640,556

They could theoretically sign a big name player if they were so inclined. There is more than enough room that they could make and bring back Carle and get a 4th line guy. And after they get ripped off for B. Ryan and trade Jake and Mezzy and 1st, who knows what could be available.
stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

Jun 26 @ 7:30 PM ET
No doubt. He'll be expensive in 2 years though, probably too much so for us to keep him.
- canadianpenfan


He's worth it. Absolute stud imo.
canadianpenfan
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Calgary
Joined: 05.13.2010

Jun 26 @ 7:30 PM ET
Those are all very good teams. Seems that good teams spend wisely on defense.
- Duran76



Toronto is over 21 and that's not counting Finger at 3.5, who counted against the cap last year.
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Jun 26 @ 7:30 PM ET
Prust made $800,000 last year, hardly likely he only take a $100,000 raise. Expect him to at least double his salary.
Duran76
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Calmer than you are dude, PA
Joined: 07.25.2010

Jun 26 @ 7:31 PM ET
Toronto is over 21 and that's not counting Finger at 3.5, who counted against the cap last year.
- canadianpenfan


I suppose it isn't an exact science.
stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

Jun 26 @ 7:31 PM ET
Toronto is over 21 and that's not counting Finger at 3.5, who counted against the cap last year.
- canadianpenfan


They added the Messiah (JVR) so next year is there year.
stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

Jun 26 @ 7:32 PM ET
Prust made $800,000 last year, hardly likely he only take a $100,000 raise. Expect him to at least double his salary.
- ob18


How many years away is Cousins do you think?
canadianpenfan
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Calgary
Joined: 05.13.2010

Jun 26 @ 7:32 PM ET
He's worth it. Absolute stud imo.
- stveshdy



He is, but he's the one guy we've been drafting to replace so RS might find him expendable at some point. He would bring oodles of assets back.

Schenn2shine
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.26.2011

Jun 26 @ 7:32 PM ET
I actually like the deal a lot. I think Schenn is going to be very good here. He is big and physical, blocks shots, and can move the puck, and right handed shot. About time.
- stveshdy

It's funny. We have actual star brothers on the team. A right handed defenseman and a starting goaltender. Could it be that the Flyers have changed the dynamic of the team??

Truthfully, I'm all for whatever created a scary top line in the NHL. Grab Nash, Ryan, Stewart. I could careless. Whoever the Flyers think could help Giroux stay a top star in the league in fine by me. If Parise goes to Detroit and Detroit wants to unload a Franzon, great! If Parise goes to Minnesota and they want to get away from Heatley, that's good enough for me. If top snipers are out there, Giroux will make them relevant.
aosplayo
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 01.14.2008

Jun 26 @ 7:32 PM ET
Bill, I completely get what you are saying and I appreciate the hard work you did crunching all those numbers.... that said:

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Zach Parise ($7.250m)
Wayne Simmonds ($1.750m) / Danny Briere ($6.500m) / Brayden Schenn ($3.110m)
Jakub Voracek ($3.000m) / Sean Couturier ($1.375m) / Matt Read ($0.900m)
Eric Wellwood ($0.580m) / Maxime Talbot ($1.750m) / Brandon Prust ($0.900m)
Zac Rinaldo ($0.544m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m) / Andrej Meszaros ($4.000m)
Braydon Coburn ($4.500m) / Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m)
Luke Schenn ($3.600m) / Matt Carle ($4.750m)
Marc-Andre Bourdon ($0.900m) /
GOALTENDERS
Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.667m)
Martin Biron ($0.800m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $69,659,444; BONUSES: $2,705,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $640,556

They could theoretically sign a big name player if they were so inclined. There is more than enough room that they could make and bring back Carle and get a 4th line guy. And after they get ripped off for B. Ryan and trade Jake and Mezzy and 1st, who knows what could be available.

- Flyers1218



I like Prust. I dont think Parise or Ryan are possible.

Id be happy with:

Carle
Biron
Prust
Moore


stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

Jun 26 @ 7:33 PM ET
He is, but he's the one guy we've been drafting to replace so RS might find him expendable at some point. He would bring oodles of assets back.
- canadianpenfan


I think the Pens sign him to long-term deal. No trade is my predicition.
Flyers1218
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: New York, NY
Joined: 06.28.2007

Jun 26 @ 7:33 PM ET
To further add to that point, the Flyers could even put a team like this on the ice:

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Scott Hartnell ($4.200m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Bobby Ryan ($5.100m)
Zach Parise ($7.250m) / Danny Briere ($6.500m) / Brayden Schenn ($3.110m)
Wayne Simmonds ($1.750m) / Sean Couturier ($1.375m) / Matt Read ($0.900m)
Eric Wellwood ($0.580m) / Maxime Talbot ($1.750m) / Brandon Prust ($0.900m)
Zac Rinaldo ($0.544m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Kimmo Timonen ($6.333m) / Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m)
Braydon Coburn ($4.500m) / Matt Carle ($4.750m)
Luke Schenn ($3.600m) / Adrian Aucoin ($1.500m)
Marc-Andre Bourdon ($0.900m) /
GOALTENDERS
Ilya Bryzgalov ($5.667m)
Martin Biron ($0.800m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled without the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $69,259,444; BONUSES: $2,705,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $1,040,556

Again, they have enough space and could be creative to virtually make any moves they want.
canadianpenfan
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Calgary
Joined: 05.13.2010

Jun 26 @ 7:34 PM ET
Prust made $800,000 last year, hardly likely he only take a $100,000 raise. Expect him to at least double his salary.
- ob18



I'm guessing 1.8 for Prust on a 2 year from someone. What do you think he'll get?
Flyers1218
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: New York, NY
Joined: 06.28.2007

Jun 26 @ 7:34 PM ET
Prust made $800,000 last year, hardly likely he only take a $100,000 raise. Expect him to at least double his salary.
- ob18

I wouldn't be so sure of that fact.

EDIT: And regardless, I'm pointing out that they could still do whatever they wanted. This notion that they can't get a Parise or Ryan is simply not correct. Now the question is if it is smart to make a play on those guys.
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Jun 26 @ 7:35 PM ET
How many years away is Cousins do you think?
- stveshdy


I'm guessing at least 2 maybe 3.
canadianpenfan
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Calgary
Joined: 05.13.2010

Jun 26 @ 7:35 PM ET
I think the Pens sign him to long-term deal. No trade is my predicition.
- stveshdy



I think Sunday might actually have alot of influence on that decision.
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Jun 26 @ 7:35 PM ET
I wouldn't be so sure of that fact.
- Flyers1218


I'll place my bets he'll see close if not double is past seasons salary.
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Jun 26 @ 7:36 PM ET
I'm guessing 1.8 for Prust on a 2 year from someone. What do you think he'll get?
- canadianpenfan


I was thinking $1.3 to $2.0 on the high end.
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