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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: Hammer (Elsewhere) Time
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moylander
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Jun 17 @ 2:41 AM ET
It's not Bowman-esque, it's basic Economics. Pick up any college level book on Macro or Micro Economics and the first 4 chapters is dedicated to precisely these principles. It even has considerations for externalities like knowing through "the grapevine" that Suter wants to come to Chicago.

If you know he wants to be here, then trading Hammer would be a definite possibility. But we don't know if management has been given that kind of "nudge". Hell, Gary Suter might be at 1901 Madison to do just that on Monday. You know, come in have a walk through the building, "encourage" Stan that Ryan is ready to be a CBH.

But we don't know any of this. Besides this rumor of Hammer going to Ottawa for Smith and Pick, looks like a deal that is done if you know that Suter is going to hit the market regardless of what Nashville offers him. Suter will be Hawk with 72 hours of UFA and Hammer will be heading to Ottawa, but only if you lock down Suter.

- scorerstouch


I've read those books.... As well as psychology, human behavior, and negotiations. You're approach is certainly the safe bet....

JJ is suggesting SB go beyond that. Considering the hawks know they are on a short list of Midwest teams to get Suter (and that he is almost certain to go UFA July 1st) that giving up hammer to get at least 48 hours of exclusive time to wine and dine Suter before any other team GREATLY improves their odds of signing him. Its calculated for sure.... The flyers doing the same move would be dumb since Suter has no interest in playing out East. If the hawks wait until July 1st they have to wait in line with Detroit and Minnesota to negotiate with Suter and his agent. Don't forget JJ knows Suter has friends and family pushing him to get closer to home.


Also consider what JJ said about 'dumping' hammer to Ottawa for a 4th line center..... They want to be rid of the salary. Its not like acquiring Smith will be a huge deal for the hawks (from a performance standpoint, as I'm sure hawks PR will have a field day from a media standpoint).


Dealing hammer for exclusive rights to negotiate with Suter WOULD improve the hawks odds of signing him..... Certainly you can agree with that? If Suter signs SB is the hero. The risk is SB can't get the deal done, they lose hammer, and SB is the goat.

That said.... SB should get drilled if he trades a 2nd pairing dman for a 4th line center and a pick. Forget about the Suter aspect..... Its the Campbell deal on a smaller scale. Giving up something for practically nothing.


(see that.... I just 'reframed the argument'. Getting past no by Roger Fisher and William Ury)
molly2522
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: long beach, IN
Joined: 07.13.2011

Jun 17 @ 8:05 AM ET
I've read those books.... As well as psychology, human behavior, and negotiations. You're approach is certainly the safe bet....

JJ is suggesting SB go beyond that. Considering the hawks know they are on a short list of Midwest teams to get Suter (and that he is almost certain to go UFA July 1st) that giving up hammer to get at least 48 hours of exclusive time to wine and dine Suter before any other team GREATLY improves their odds of signing him. Its calculated for sure.... The flyers doing the same move would be dumb since Suter has no interest in playing out East. If the hawks wait until July 1st they have to wait in line with Detroit and Minnesota to negotiate with Suter and his agent. Don't forget JJ knows Suter has friends and family pushing him to get closer to home.

nice analysis and im sure there are ways to communicate through back channels to sutter and his agent

i totally agree on trading hammer for a fourth line center and stan woud be getting fleeced again

i have no faith in stan as a gm to make any bold or for that matter smart decisions

I HOPE STAN IS NOT AS INCOMPETENT AS I THINK HE IS!
Also consider what JJ said about 'dumping' hammer to Ottawa for a 4th line center..... They want to be rid of the salary. Its not like acquiring Smith will be a huge deal for the hawks (from a performance standpoint, as I'm sure hawks PR will have a field day from a media standpoint).


Dealing hammer for exclusive rights to negotiate with Suter WOULD improve the hawks odds of signing him..... Certainly you can agree with that? If Suter signs SB is the hero. The risk is SB can't get the deal done, they lose hammer, and SB is the goat.

That said.... SB should get drilled if he trades a 2nd pairing dman for a 4th line center and a pick. Forget about the Suter aspect..... Its the Campbell deal on a smaller scale. Giving up something for practically nothing.


(see that.... I just 'reframed the argument'. Getting past no by Roger Fisher and William Ury)

- moylander

Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Jun 17 @ 11:28 AM ET
Not disagreeing with any of that - but this is the hand they are holding right now. (Edit - Also rereading my Initial post I wasn't very clear - I was assuming they'd have to pick one or the other to keep for whatever reasons, monetarily or the players ambitions )


To elaborate - Suters status will more than likely be determined before Weber because Suter is the ufa and July 1 is coming quickly. You are assuming in your response (the first paragraph) that Weber wants to stay in Nashville. What if he doesn't AND they lose Suter? At least if they lock up Suter they have certainty that they can keep one of them. Weber would fetch them the likes of Schenn or Couturier, JVR, Mezsaros, and a 1st from what I've read (and that's just the flyers, not sure what other teams would give). Suter will not get them anything. So if they had to choose one of the two players...... it comes down to keep Weber and lose Suter OR lose weber, keep Suter and gain the kings ransom weber would fetch.

Again, jmo, but for a team that can't score it might not be a bad move assuming they get the vibe Weber won't resign. I'm just throwing out a scenario that I think makes sense as far as Nashville and damage control go. If they can keep both they should. If Suter leaves (and I think he will) the preds are screwed.

- moylander


The reason, and I didn't myself clear, is this.... I don't know if Weber will stay but what I do know is you are not going get as good of a return for an unsigned Weber. There will be no king's ransom....Whomever acquires him now will have to resign soon,and Weber can pick and choose.

As I said the Preds took a chance when they didn't resign one or both sooner, and now they will pay dearly one way or the other.
moylander
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Jun 17 @ 12:27 PM ET
The reason, and I didn't myself clear, is this.... I don't know if Weber will stay but what I do know is you are not going get as good of a return for an unsigned Weber. There will be no king's ransom....Whomever acquires him now will have to resign soon,and Weber can pick and choose.

As I said the Preds took a chance when they didn't resign one or both sooner, and now they will pay dearly one way or the other.

- Al


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