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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Flyers Won't Draft by Position
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Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jun 1 @ 10:09 AM ET
I haven't seen Schultz play Bill so I will defer to you here. Do you think the Flyers will be in the mix for Schultz?
- PLindbergh31


I definitely think they'll make a pitch.

Believe it or not, while I don't think he'll pick Dallas, I think the Stars will go very hard after him and would be able to fast-track him to the type of ice time he covets. Plus they are a team that really isn't far at all from becoming a legit playoff team again.

MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 1 @ 10:09 AM ET
Why have a print out? Anyone can just go to www.capgeek.com


Hell, you can even send them question to clarify and they respond back pretty quickly

- Jsaquella



Capgeek does all the hard work for you.
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jun 1 @ 10:11 AM ET
no way he signs in nj
- griouxmvp2012


No way huh? He's the Captain of the team, by all accounts loves playing and living in NJ, and his team is currently in the SCF. Seems like a miserable situation for him to be in.
RooNosHockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bear, DE
Joined: 10.25.2011

Jun 1 @ 10:11 AM ET
Again, it comes down to "best available player" based on the upside the team projects the player to have.

Personally, I'm a little leery of taking "future shutdown defensemen" in the first round because the ones who end up like Jeff Woywitka and Ryan Parent far outnumber the ones who eventually turn out to be genuine NHL shutdown defensemen, ala Karl Alzner.

But if the Flyers think there's a defenseman who has the upside to play on their top pairing someday, then by all means go for it.

My point of this blog is that teams should not draft out of perceived positional need. It would take one hell of a goalie prospect for me to ever say that's the way to go with a first round pick and that's also the case for about 85 to 90 percent of the defense prospects that come along in a given year -- it is easier to find a player later in the draft who proves to be a comparable or superior NHL player down the road.

- bmeltzer


I understand your point about taking the best overall player, but why can't they trade up to take the best overall defenseman they need, or if they cant, and someone really wants your pick trade down to take the defenseman you want at a slightly lower pick... I'm okay with a team that is sound all around taking the best overall pick, but when you have such a glaring deficiency in a certain position you have to address it. So IMO they should target defenseman in the draft, and move up or down as needed to get them...
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jun 1 @ 10:12 AM ET
Seidenberg is the one that got away, IMO. They completely misread his areas of strength and rushed him up badly.
- Tomahawk


He was the biggest miss, considering the return and untapped potential. He's become a very solid top 4 guy, plays in all situations and does a lot of good things
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 1 @ 10:12 AM ET
We'll have to agree to disagree. I don't think you're giving Enstrom enough credit for what he does/brings to their blueline. It's because of his play that Byfuglien can do the things he does in the offensive zone.
- bradleyc4



Enstrom is a lot like Timonen, quietly and efficiently gets it done in the d-zone.
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jun 1 @ 10:13 AM ET
I definitely think they'll make a pitch.

Believe it or not, while I don't think he'll pick Dallas, I think the Stars will go very hard after him and would be able to fast-track him to the type of ice time he covets. Plus they are a team that really isn't far at all from becoming a legit playoff team again.

- bmeltzer


Interesting. I read somewhere the Wings will have in the vicinity of 25 million in cap space. With everything Ken Holland touches turning to gold, that is a frightening situation for the rest of the NHL.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jun 1 @ 10:14 AM ET
I think Enström is decent in his own end of the ice. He has always had some trouble coping with big, strong forwards but he moves the puck very effectively under pressure.
- bmeltzer

There is no doubt he is good in his own end, but the way I see it, if I am moving JvR I am doing so in a package for a better d-man.

I wanted the Flyers to get Enstrom a few years back (when he was still and RFA).. and wouldnt be upset with landing him, but I wouldnt move JvR for him.

He is a hell of a set up man, and can play in his own end pretty well, but when the playoffs come around, and you have guys forchecking like the Devils.. big guys crashing the net like the Devils... I would rather have a bigger stronger guy.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 1 @ 10:14 AM ET
I understand your point about taking the best overall player, but why can't they trade up to take the best overall defenseman they need, or if they cant, and someone really wants your pick trade down to take the defenseman you want at a slightly lower pick... I'm okay with a team that is sound all around taking the best overall pick, but when you have such a glaring deficiency in a certain position you have to address it. So IMO they should target defenseman in the draft, and move up or down as needed to get them...
- RooNosHockey



The point is that you can get a comparable player in later rounds with the same upside as you can get in the first round. And Bill used the history of defenseman picked to illustrate that. So why move up or down when you can pick the best player available, and get a comparable defenseman with a later pick? And there are other ways to address a weakness then just the draft.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jun 1 @ 10:14 AM ET
Capgeek does all the hard work for you.
- MJL


The simple fact that they are so engaged is fantastic. You shoot them a question, and they respond. If you need help using a tool, they help. Great site
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jun 1 @ 10:15 AM ET
Enstrom is a lot like Timonen, quietly and efficiently gets it done in the d-zone.
- Tomahawk

I disagree.. Timonen is much better in his own zone... much more physical, better positionally, and is smarter.. Enstrom may have a better outlet pass, but i wouldnt go any further than that.
bodiva88
Referee
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: There aren't any answers. Only choices.
Joined: 07.01.2007

Jun 1 @ 10:15 AM ET
Bill, I honestly do not know how you are not a full time employee of TSN or the NHL.
The amount of effort and honest interest you put into each and every article surpasses everyone else... and I mean everyone. As a true fan of the Flyers and hockey, it is such a pleasure to get up in the morning and know that I have something like this to look forward to. Outstanding work, and just great thought to put something like this together. Bravo!

- jak521

+1
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jun 1 @ 10:17 AM ET
No way huh? He's the Captain of the team, by all accounts loves playing and living in NJ, and his team is currently in the SCF. Seems like a miserable situation for him to be in.
- PLindbergh31


The biggest factor is the Devils financial situation. Various reports have them in serious trouble, and that might preclude them from matching a giant offfer from a Detroit or other team that has the cash to make Parise a monster offer.
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jun 1 @ 10:17 AM ET
I think his point is that if you look at the Flyers when they pick d-men in the 1st round... and you see this..

#19 Luca Sbisa
#4 Joni Pitkanen
#28 Jeff Woywitka
#20 Darren Rumble
#20 Kerry Huffmann
#16 Steve Smith

- jak521


That's some list. 4 of the 6 guys complete stiffs.
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jun 1 @ 10:19 AM ET
The biggest factor is the Devils financial situation. Various reports have them in serious trouble, and that might preclude them from matching a giant offfer from a Detroit or other team that has the cash to make Parise a monster offer.
- Jsaquella


I can't see him leaving. Never say never, but as long as the Devils don't insult the guy I think he will stay. We shall see in exactly one month.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jun 1 @ 10:20 AM ET
I understand your point about taking the best overall player, but why can't they trade up to take the best overall defenseman they need, or if they cant, and someone really wants your pick trade down to take the defenseman you want at a slightly lower pick... I'm okay with a team that is sound all around taking the best overall pick, but when you have such a glaring deficiency in a certain position you have to address it. So IMO they should target defenseman in the draft, and move up or down as needed to get them...
- RooNosHockey

Why trade up? So give up assets to get a guy who "potentially" has a little bit of a higher upside?

Also, where are they so glaringly deficient?

Defense? What with Gusty, MAB waiting and possibly gaining spots? Yes they are lacking a top d-prospect that is a set in stone top 4 guy... But honestly, how many teams have those kinda of prospects?

If there is a weakness in the org.. I would say it would be Right Wing.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 1 @ 10:20 AM ET
I disagree.. Timonen is much better in his own zone... much more physical, better positionally, and is smarter.. Enstrom may have a better outlet pass, but i wouldnt go any further than that.
- jak521



I agree. Enstrom is a nice player but I wouldn't put him in Timonen's class. Especially when Timonen first came here to the Flyers.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jun 1 @ 10:21 AM ET
That's some list. 4 of the 6 guys complete stiffs.
- PLindbergh31

and to be honest... Joni Pitkanen isnt the greatest #4 ever.. and Luca Sbisa (although he is still young and growing as a player) doesnt look like he will be a 1-2 d-man
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jun 1 @ 10:21 AM ET
I can't see him leaving. Never say never, but as long as the Devils don't insult the guy I think he will stay. We shall see in exactly one month.
- PLindbergh31


I think it's probably in the 90% chances that he stays. But with a $69mm cap, Detroit does have about $25mm to spend. They could sign Parise and Suter and still have room to add.
ob18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: That matters less than you hope it does
Joined: 07.20.2007

Jun 1 @ 10:21 AM ET
Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Flyers Won't Draft by Position
- bmeltzer


That's always the best way to go, defense might be the deepest position in round 1 but some forwards could be there for them even a goalie that could be available.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jun 1 @ 10:22 AM ET
I agree. Enstrom is a nice player but I wouldn't put him in Timonen's class. Especially when Timonen first came here to the Flyers.
- MJL

Timonens age is catchin up with him, but just look at how he played over the first 1/2- 3/4 of the season. His positional defense and smarts are near the top of the entire NHL.
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jun 1 @ 10:22 AM ET
and to be honest... Joni Pitkanen isnt the greatest #4 ever.. and Luca Sbisa (although he is still young and growing as a player) doesnt look like he will be a 1-2 d-man
- jak521


Flyers haven't had any luck drafting d-men. I wonder if it makes them gun shy about drafting them. Lots of swings and misses. Much more success drafting forwards.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Jun 1 @ 10:22 AM ET
I think it's probably in the 90% chances that he stays. But with a $69mm cap, Detroit does have about $25mm to spend. They could sign Parise and Suter and still have room to add.
- Jsaquella



How do they do it!

(i know i know.. they find gems in the draft)
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jun 1 @ 10:23 AM ET
I think it's probably in the 90% chances that he stays. But with a $69mm cap, Detroit does have about $25mm to spend. They could sign Parise and Suter and still have room to add.
- Jsaquella


No question. I think Detroit is the lone possibility outside of him staying with the Devils. I have read he's very tight with Suter and if Suter lands in Detroit I'm sure Parise would give it some thought.
RooNosHockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bear, DE
Joined: 10.25.2011

Jun 1 @ 10:23 AM ET
The point is that you can get a comparable player in later rounds with the same upside as you can get in the first round. And Bill used the history of defenseman picked to illustrate that. So why move up or down when you can pick the best player available, and get a comparable defenseman with a later pick? And there are other ways to address a weakness then just the draft.
- MJL


I guess my point is... yes you can get someone similiar later. But they Flyers dont have a good history of this, and the chances that a team lands that guy is way down as well.

It like playing long shots at the track.
You could take the favorite but you have to put up more money to win a large amount. Your more likely to win though. (first round picks)

Or you could play the under-dog. Someone that is similiar to the favorite, but still has a chance to win, although much smaller. But you get a better return on your money.( 2nd-3rd round picks)

Or you could take a long shot. Someone that has little to no shot, but has some kind of fluke potential and pays off big... (4th and later)
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