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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings -- Hartnell and Long-Term Planning
Author Message
RooNosHockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bear, DE
Joined: 10.25.2011

May 21 @ 12:01 PM ET
What discussion are you making? You keep saying you'd sign him for no more than $5mm. You haven't offered up any other ideas on replacing him if he left, other than saying that the kids on hand would do it, haven't discussed other points made about guys reaching UFA status vs not being UFA yet(and consequently making less cash) and you dismiss out of hand factors that could cause the price to rise or fall. The future is far more in flux this summer than before, because there will eventually be a new CBA that dictates how deals can be made

You repeat your point and ignore all others. That's hardly a conversation.

- Jsaquella


The discussion I was making is I would rather let Hartnell go then to overpay for him, and I think anything over 5 million (as of right now) is overpayment. Value is subject to change, but we can't guess at that.

As far as replacing him, I do think the young guys would be the replacement, then you use the 4.2 million to sign guys for your 3-4th lines to replace the young guys that are moving up. You dont always have to replace a guy with the same type of guy. For example, Lieno. Was Jagr an exact replacement for Leino. Nope, but we used his money to pay for Jagr.

As far as guys that have not hit UFA yet, I addressed that in another post, but if the guys are worth the money, they will get it, whether they are UFA or RFA.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 21 @ 12:03 PM ET
Players can get market value as RFA's. Look at Weber and Stamkos. All you have to do is not sign what the team offers you. You can either take an offer from another team if your worth it, or file for arbritration and be awarded what is a correct number.

What I would like to do is, before this year starts, I would like it if Homer could resign Hartnell to a deal between 4.2-5 million. If he doesn't sign now, then keep working at it during the year, and if he wont come down to 5 million, then I would try and trade him at the deadline, or at the draft next year. It may be dificult with the NMC, but if Hartnell knows he wont be back next year anyway, he might agree to a trade. Locking up Hartnell now, may make it easier to trade JVR for some defensive help.

- RooNosHockey


Yes, and you're talking about two elite level players that have been nominated for the Norris and Hart trophies and have led the NHL in goals two years running. Giroux had a wonderful, breakout year, and if he repeats it, he will get a huge payday before hitting UFA status.

But most guys, like Lucic and Horton, don't. They get paid a nice solid second contract and then hit big deals as UFA. Lucic and Horton are good players, but they're not Weber or Stamkos.

Also, Hartnell doesn't have a NMC, he has a NTC. I'd love to lock up Hartnell now, for a deal identical to his current deal for 3 years. But why would he sign such a deal now? He's coming off a career year. His agent knows that he could strike it rich next summer, and would probably like to see what happens with the other potential UFAs and also with the Flyers roster.

If the Flyers do trade JvR, then obviously Hartnell's agent can demand more money, because JvR isn;t on hand to replace Hartnell in any way, shape or form. Also, if Perry and Getzlaff re-sign in Anaheim, Hartnell is suddenly the youngest power forward on the market with a couple 30 goal seasons on his resume.

All I'm saying is, drawing lines in the sand is futile at this point. Far too much can happen to say that $5mm is overpaying Hartnell. We have no idea where the cap will be, or if they'll have the same kind of cap. We have no idea if Hartnell will be the best guy on the market or not. We have no idea if JvR or Simmonds can fully replace him.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 21 @ 12:04 PM ET
The discussion I was making is I would rather let Hartnell go then to overpay for him, and I think anything over 5 million (as of right now) is overpayment. Value is subject to change, but we can't guess at that.

As far as replacing him, I do think the young guys would be the replacement, then you use the 4.2 million to sign guys for your 3-4th lines to replace the young guys that are moving up. You dont always have to replace a guy with the same type of guy. For example, Lieno. Was Jagr an exact replacement for Leino. Nope, but we used his money to pay for Jagr.

As far as guys that have not hit UFA yet, I addressed that in another post, but if the guys are worth the money, they will get it, whether they are UFA or RFA.

- RooNosHockey


Actually, Voracek was the replacement for Leino, in terms of the role he filled. Jagr was more a replacement for Carter.

As far as the younger guys replacing him, none of them have shown that they can replace what he brings. They will still need physicality and offense. Only Simmonds has shown the consistent physical play and the consistent offense has eluded all of them to one point or another.

And yes, RFA's can be paid highly. But using Stamkos and Weber was a very poor comparison. Even Lucic and Horton are not that good as comparisons for JvR because they have had good seasons back to back and steady development. JvR hasn't. The Flyers got Giroux on a bargain deal.
RooNosHockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bear, DE
Joined: 10.25.2011

May 21 @ 12:04 PM ET
You still have to find another player. And you still are potentially weakening your team. So again, your plan is to walk away from one of your best forwards and add a cheaper 3rd or 4th line player.
- MJL


If JVR can do what Hartnell did this year, and whoever you sign can do what JVR did this year, then its not weakening your team. Its staying the same.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 21 @ 12:05 PM ET
This sounds like what the Flyers say about Shelly... And people get mad because of his cap hit. So I guess as fans, we do have an idea of how much those intangables are worth. Like I said I like Hartnell and I want him to stay, I just dont want to overpay. And IMO, for someone that averages 25 goals a year, and with his intangables.... 5 million if a fair market number. It more then Giroux, JVR. It's slightly less then what we were paying guys like Carter and Richards. Its more then players like Lucic, Marchand, and Horton. Its more then Dustin Brown, and David Legwand. All in all, 5 million sounds like a very fair deal IMO.
- RooNosHockey



If you understand the NHL salary structure then you would know that compairing Hartnell, who will be an unrestricted Free Agent, and players such as JVR and Giroux, who are on their first deal coming off of their initial EL deal. Isn;'t an accurate comparable.
RooNosHockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bear, DE
Joined: 10.25.2011

May 21 @ 12:06 PM ET
Are you suggesting spending 7.5M on a two players. A 3rd and 4th line player?
- MJL


No that is not what I said. Becuase I said they 7.5 million to spend, does not mean I said they should spend 7.5 million on them. You either arent comprehending what is being said, or your purposly twisting words.
RooNosHockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bear, DE
Joined: 10.25.2011

May 21 @ 12:07 PM ET
What we know now? What is that we know now? What is that 5M number based on?
- MJL


I already said what I based this on, you can go back and read it if you like.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 21 @ 12:07 PM ET
If JVR can do what Hartnell did this year, and whoever you sign can do what JVR did this year, then its not weakening your team. Its staying the same.
- RooNosHockey



Why would you want to stay the same? How about having Hartnell again having a similar Season to last year, and having JVR match Hartnell next Season.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 21 @ 12:08 PM ET
If JVR can do what Hartnell did this year, and whoever you sign can do what JVR did this year, then its not weakening your team. Its staying the same.
- RooNosHockey


That's a pretty huge if, considering JvR hasn't shown that he can be a consistently physical presence like hartnell has.
flyler
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: LA, CA
Joined: 05.23.2008

May 21 @ 12:09 PM ET
I have always said that Harts was Valuable. Very similar to Malone in Tampa. Big guy who can gel with your top line and players. Many people forget that he signed this contract when the Flyers were literally at the bottom of the League. He came to the league's worst team. And his signing directly influenced Kimmo's who signed a few days later after talking with Scott over that weekend. And without Kimmo's stabilizing influence on D, we would not be where we are now.

I think he took some real big strides this year. Jagr was totally worth every penny we paid to him based on the example he set not only for our young guys but our Veterans as well. I hope he can be resigned, but if not. I can no longer blame him for being a Pen. Even so I hope to see him in Orange & Black next year.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 21 @ 12:10 PM ET
I have always said that Harts was Valuable. Very similar to Malone in Tampa. Big guy who can gel with your top line and players. Many people forget that he signed this contract when the Flyers were literally at the bottom of the League. He came to the league's worst team. And his signing directly influenced Kimmo's who signed a few days later after talking with Scott over that weekend. And without Kimmo's stabilizing influence on D, we would not be where we are now.

I think he took some real big strides this year. Jagr was totally worth every penny we paid to him based on the example he set not only for our young guys but our Veterans as well. I hope he can be resigned, but if not. I can no longer blame him for being a Pen. Even so I hope to see him in Orange & Black next year.

- flyler


Hartnell was also going to be a UFA when he signed. He got the dollar amount that the market would bear at the time.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 21 @ 12:11 PM ET
Players can get market value as RFA's. Look at Weber and Stamkos. All you have to do is not sign what the team offers you. You can either take an offer from another team if your worth it, or file for arbritration and be awarded what is a correct number.

What I would like to do is, before this year starts, I would like it if Homer could resign Hartnell to a deal between 4.2-5 million. If he doesn't sign now, then keep working at it during the year, and if he wont come down to 5 million, then I would try and trade him at the deadline, or at the draft next year. It may be dificult with the NMC, but if Hartnell knows he wont be back next year anyway, he might agree to a trade. Locking up Hartnell now, may make it easier to trade JVR for some defensive help.

- RooNosHockey



So when Hartnell balks at the low ball offer. Then your plan is to trade him at the trade deadline? And if the Flyers are in contention and Hartnell is having a nother good year?
Daman
Joined: 07.03.2011

May 21 @ 12:12 PM ET
What discussion are you making? You keep saying you'd sign him for no more than $5mm. You haven't offered up any other ideas on replacing him if he left, other than saying that the kids on hand would do it, haven't discussed other points made about guys reaching UFA status vs not being UFA yet(and consequently making less cash) and you dismiss out of hand factors that could cause the price to rise or fall. The future is far more in flux this summer than before, because there will eventually be a new CBA that dictates how deals can be made

You repeat your point and ignore all others. That's hardly a conversation.

- Jsaquella[/


Clearly you are not married.

x

stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

May 21 @ 12:12 PM ET
Hartnell was also going to be a UFA when he signed. He got the dollar amount that the market would bear at the time.
- Jsaquella


I'm very skeptical about giving Hartnell another big contract. I love everything he does and hes a very good player but just like Bill stated power forwards over 30+ usually start to breakdown. He had a career year last season so now isn't the time to discuss a new contract because Hartnells value is sky high. If he produces at that level again next year then the Flyers may be forced to either overpay or let him go.
RooNosHockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bear, DE
Joined: 10.25.2011

May 21 @ 12:13 PM ET
Why would you want to stay the same? How about having Hartnell again having a similar Season to last year, and having JVR match Hartnell next Season.
- MJL


I would be okay with staying the same on offense next year if the team improved defensively.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 21 @ 12:13 PM ET

Clearly you are not married.

- Daman


Almost ten years, actually. My wife's just not a female dog
Daman
Joined: 07.03.2011

May 21 @ 12:14 PM ET
Almost ten years, actually. My wife's just not a female dog
- Jsaquella


In light of your dog reference, did you buy her a muzzle?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 21 @ 12:14 PM ET
No that is not what I said. Becuase I said they 7.5 million to spend, does not mean I said they should spend 7.5 million on them. You either arent comprehending what is being said, or your purposly twisting words.
- RooNosHockey



I'm reading exactly what you've stated. You've now suggested using 7.5M to sign 3rd and 4th line players twice.
RooNosHockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bear, DE
Joined: 10.25.2011

May 21 @ 12:15 PM ET
I'm done for the day. Find someone else to pick apart the rest of the day. You guys are just....
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 21 @ 12:16 PM ET
I already said what I based this on, you can go back and read it if you like.
- RooNosHockey



Yes you offered Dustin Brown as a comparable. Who signed his deal 4 Seasons ago as an RFA. Hardly an accurate comparison to Hartnell who will be a UFA in 2013.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 21 @ 12:16 PM ET
I'm very skeptical about giving Hartnell another big contract. I love everything he does and hes a very good player but just like Bill stated power forwards over 30+ usually start to breakdown. He had a career year last season so now isn't the time to discuss a new contract because Hartnells value is sky high. If he produces at that level again next year then the Flyers may be forced to either overpay or let him go.
- stveshdy


I have issues with a long contract, but not a fairly big cap hit.

I agree with the timing. See how the year plays out. See what moves are made this summer. See what happens with the other potential UFAs.

Basically the same stuff I've been saying all along. Don't paint yourself into a corner by drawing a line in the sand. Be open to every possibility. No need to say today, a year before he hits UFA, that you'd pay him no more than $5mm.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 21 @ 12:16 PM ET
I would be okay with staying the same on offense next year if the team improved defensively.
- RooNosHockey



I wouldn't be. And I pray that Holmgren wouldn't be either.
Daman
Joined: 07.03.2011

May 21 @ 12:18 PM ET
I have issues with a long contract, but not a fairly big cap hit.

I agree with the timing. See how the year plays out. See what moves are made this summer. See what happens with the other potential UFAs.

Basically the same stuff I've been saying all along. Don't paint yourself into a corner by drawing a line in the sand. Be open to every possibility. No need to say today, a year before he hits UFA, that you'd pay him no more than $5mm.

- Jsaquella


First, we should draw several lines in the sand. And perhaps a circle.

Next, we should trade Harts to the Kings so they can win 2 cups with our players. Throw in Timmo as well.

And then we should paint ourself in a corner.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 21 @ 12:20 PM ET
I'm done for the day. Find someone else to pick apart the rest of the day. You guys are just....
- RooNosHockey


All we're saying is to use logic and be open. You make comparisons that make little sense or have conditions on them that don't apply. You harp on Hartnell being the second highest paid forward, then when confronted with the fact that the other forwards are RFAs and haven't gotten their big paydays, you immediately pull out two of the biggest stars in the league as examples of RFAs that got paid.

You make comments, and then get in a huff when somebody explains why your logic is not right.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 21 @ 12:21 PM ET
In light of your dog reference, did you buy her a muzzle?
- Daman


Nope. I married well above my head
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