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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings -- Hartnell and Long-Term Planning
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RooNosHockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bear, DE
Joined: 10.25.2011

May 21 @ 11:19 AM ET
Saying you wouldn't pay him more than $5mm IS the definition of drawing a line.
- Jsaquella


Everyone has a number where they think would be too much. Mine is 5 million. You may be willing to pay him more. But would you pay him 5.5? 6? 7? At what point does it become overpayment to you? For me it's 5 million.
BringBack25
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: deep lurk
Joined: 01.03.2007

May 21 @ 11:19 AM ET
Roo's neighbor, youarewrong demanded he be traded by Thanksgiving last year. Now Roo is drawing a line in the sand with zero knowledge of the cap moving forward and seemingly less idea of how to replace him.
- Jsaquella


In Hartnell, the Flyers have a guy who, coming off a down year, had a heart to heart with the coach. Coach gave him some things to work on and told him the team needed more from him. Guy responds with a career year in almost every statistical category, makes the all-star team, steps up as a locker room leader and media friendly, media savvy personality.

I can totally see why you'd want to give a guy like that only a slight raise, or maybe no raise at all. Don't wanna send the wrong message and reward players that do absolutely everything you ask of them, better than they've ever done it before, with a fair, market value raise.

What the hell are you people thinking?!? Dude should be happy he still gets free gatorade, let alone a raise. Gotta draw the line somewhere man.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 21 @ 11:20 AM ET
How long do you give them? Hartnell isnt UFA until after next season. Plenty of time to know if our young guys can handle the extra load or not.
- RooNosHockey


Also, plenty of time to not worry about locking yourself into some ridiculous number.

The Flyers need two things to happen before considering allowing Hartnell to walk: JvR needs to show some snarl and more consistent physicality to his game and Simmonds needs to show that his 28 goals were not a flash in the pan.

Hartnell's 37 goal season might be an fluke, but he's also had 30 goals in the past. Simmonds doesn't have that kind of track record.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 21 @ 11:23 AM ET
Everyone has a number where they think would be too much. Mine is 5 million. You may be willing to pay him more. But would you pay him 5.5? 6? 7? At what point does it become overpayment to you? For me it's 5 million.
- RooNosHockey


Laregly depends upon the cap in place at the time, plus the market. If Iginla signs for $7mm next summer, and Hartnell costs $5.25mm, Gimme Hartnell.

Things like that are going to determine Hartnell's price tag. My point is, saying I'll pay this much and no more is not the best tactic, because there's no firm cap or rules in place.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

May 21 @ 11:24 AM ET
How long do you give them? Hartnell isnt UFA until after next season. Plenty of time to know if our young guys can handle the extra load or not.
- RooNosHockey

Skill wise they are probably ready now... but its more of the intangibles that one acquires over time that would be lost with Hartnell's departure.

Hartnell is by all means a fantastic guy to have around the locker. he keeps things light, comes prepared to work, and is dedicated to the team and the city. He is sort of an emotional leader. I understand that we have guys that could possibly step in and produce statistically comparative numbers... but there isnt a single player that brings the total package consistently (goals, assists, hits, fights, net presence, great locker room guy, experience, etc) that is Scott Hartnell, already on this team.
FlyerMike18
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 03.07.2009

May 21 @ 11:25 AM ET
It helps Carle this summer, because the UFA crop of defensemen is pretty weak.

Next summer, when Hartnell is a UFA, the class will include Jarome Iginla, Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaff and Brendan Morrow. Somebody might be able to take Iggy or Morrow more cheaply, on a short term deal, but Perry and Getzlaff oculd command huge salaries. That could impact the market for Hartnell in two ways:

1. Supply might exceed demand. If Iginla and Morrow have good years next season, perhaps they're attractive and viable alternatives.

2. Perry & Getzlaff, combined with Iginla, could drive up the market for a guy like Hartnell, especially if they re-sign before they hit UFA.

If JvR comes out and has a huge year and shows some snarl, and Simmonds doesn't regress, and has himself a 25 goal year, then I'd consider more favorably allowing Hartnell to walk.

- Jsaquella


i think the flyers situation is a factor too. with both players, think about the effects of not replacing him. obviously hartnell isnt expendable or anything close to that, but the flyers do have a lot of good young forwards that can step up their game. signing a forward below the quality of the guys mentioned (or a morrow type if he starts to slow down a bit) might not be the end of the world if things fall through with hartnell. the flyers lack of young d prospects makes it a different situation with carle. maybe that fact just scares the poop out of me and i'm overplaying it
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

May 21 @ 11:26 AM ET
In Hartnell, the Flyers have a guy who, coming off a down year, had a heart to heart with the coach. Coach gave him some things to work on and told him the team needed more from him. Guy responds with a career year in almost every statistical category, makes the all-star team, steps up as a locker room leader and media friendly, media savvy personality.

I can totally see why you'd want to give a guy like that only a slight raise, or maybe no raise at all. Don't wanna send the wrong message and reward players that do absolutely everything you ask of them, better than they've ever done it before, with a fair, market value raise.

What the hell are you people thinking?!? Dude should be happy he still gets free gatorade, let alone a raise. Gotta draw the line somewhere man.

- BringBack25

Still think we shoulda went with that Hartnell for a bag of pucks scenario from November.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 21 @ 11:29 AM ET
i think the flyers situation is a factor too. with both players, think about the effects of not replacing him. obviously hartnell isnt expendable or anything close to that, but the flyers do have a lot of good young forwards that can step up their game. signing a forward below the quality of the guys mentioned (or a morrow type if he starts to slow down a bit) might not be the end of the world if things fall through with hartnell. the flyers lack of young d prospects makes it a different situation with carle. maybe that fact just scares the poop out of me and i'm overplaying it
- FlyerMike18


It's not the end of the world if Hartnell moves on, but I have concerns in replacing him. That kind of consistent production year in and out isn't often cheap or easy to come by.

Hartnell should worry you, though. Two of the rarest things in hockey are consistently productive power forwards and good puck moving defensemen.
FlyerMike18
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 03.07.2009

May 21 @ 11:33 AM ET
It's not the end of the world if Hartnell moves on, but I have concerns in replacing him. That kind of consistent production year in and out isn't often cheap or easy to come by.

Hartnell should worry you, though. Two of the rarest things in hockey are consistently productive power forwards and good puck moving defensemen.

- Jsaquella


no doubt, and believe me i absolutely want him back in the fold after next year. i only wanted to say that i think the d situation is worse, and thus more of an advantage to carle. this summer's FA crop might be a big reason for that though
RooNosHockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bear, DE
Joined: 10.25.2011

May 21 @ 11:33 AM ET
Laregly depends upon the cap in place at the time, plus the market. If Iginla signs for $7mm next summer, and Hartnell costs $5.25mm, Gimme Hartnell.

Things like that are going to determine Hartnell's price tag. My point is, saying I'll pay this much and no more is not the best tactic, because there's no firm cap or rules in place.

- Jsaquella


I don't think its a matter of either; or. The Flyers have a lot of options in this regard. If Hartnell has another great season, good. He might get more then a slight raise. But just based on this season, and his previous seasons, if Homer goes into negotiations this summer to extend Hartnell, then I say offer him an extension of his current contract, and allow wiggle room to sign him up to 5 million a season. And only include a limited NTC. Other wise, wait and see how he does they year, and how the free agent market shapes up... You might get him for less, or you might have to let him walk. But if I'm homer, signing Hartnell to an extension I dont go over 5 million for 3 to 4 years with a limited NTC. And if it comes down to it, a full NTC, but no way a NMC.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 21 @ 11:35 AM ET
Flyers have signed Derek Mathers to an EL deal.

Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 21 @ 11:39 AM ET
I don't think its a matter of either; or. The Flyers have a lot of options in this regard. If Hartnell has another great season, good. He might get more then a slight raise. But just based on this season, and his previous seasons, if Homer goes into negotiations this summer to extend Hartnell, then I say offer him an extension of his current contract, and allow wiggle room to sign him up to 5 million a season. And only include a limited NTC. Other wise, wait and see how he does they year, and how the free agent market shapes up... You might get him for less, or you might have to let him walk. But if I'm homer, signing Hartnell to an extension I dont go over 5 million for 3 to 4 years with a limited NTC. And if it comes down to it, a full NTC, but no way a NMC.
- RooNosHockey


It could well be a matter of either or, though. It could very easily come down to having to overpay Hartnell to keep him. I agree on a shorter term, 3 or 4 years at absolute most, and honestly I could care less about the NTC on a 3 year deal.

Who knows, if they trade JvR this summer, then re-signing Hartnell certainly becomes more of a neccesity, and that's the rub. Not only do we not know where the cap is going to be, or what rules will be in place, we don;t know if guys like JvR will still be here.

That's why I suggest not speaking in absolutes. The picture is very fluid.
RooNosHockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bear, DE
Joined: 10.25.2011

May 21 @ 11:41 AM ET
Skill wise they are probably ready now... but its more of the intangibles that one acquires over time that would be lost with Hartnell's departure.

Hartnell is by all means a fantastic guy to have around the locker. he keeps things light, comes prepared to work, and is dedicated to the team and the city. He is sort of an emotional leader. I understand that we have guys that could possibly step in and produce statistically comparative numbers... but there isnt a single player that brings the total package consistently (goals, assists, hits, fights, net presence, great locker room guy, experience, etc) that is Scott Hartnell, already on this team.

- jak521


This sounds like what the Flyers say about Shelly... And people get mad because of his cap hit. So I guess as fans, we do have an idea of how much those intangables are worth. Like I said I like Hartnell and I want him to stay, I just dont want to overpay. And IMO, for someone that averages 25 goals a year, and with his intangables.... 5 million if a fair market number. It more then Giroux, JVR. It's slightly less then what we were paying guys like Carter and Richards. Its more then players like Lucic, Marchand, and Horton. Its more then Dustin Brown, and David Legwand. All in all, 5 million sounds like a very fair deal IMO.
RooNosHockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bear, DE
Joined: 10.25.2011

May 21 @ 11:42 AM ET
i think the flyers situation is a factor too. with both players, think about the effects of not replacing him. obviously hartnell isnt expendable or anything close to that, but the flyers do have a lot of good young forwards that can step up their game. signing a forward below the quality of the guys mentioned (or a morrow type if he starts to slow down a bit) might not be the end of the world if things fall through with hartnell. the flyers lack of young d prospects makes it a different situation with carle. maybe that fact just scares the poop out of me and i'm overplaying it
- FlyerMike18


No I think your on the right track of thinking.
stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

May 21 @ 11:42 AM ET
It could well be a matter of either or, though. It could very easily come down to having to overpay Hartnell to keep him. I agree on a shorter term, 3 or 4 years at absolute most, and honestly I could care less about the NTC on a 3 year deal.

Who knows, if they trade JvR this summer, then re-signing Hartnell certainly becomes more of a neccesity, and that's the rub. Not only do we not know where the cap is going to be, or what rules will be in place, we don;t know if guys like JvR will still be here.

- Jsaquella


Who do you keep Hartnell or JvR if you had to pick? I'll take JvR. Not that I don't think Hartnell is valuable but ill take the younger kid with more potential. I'm sure you would agree.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 21 @ 11:43 AM ET
This sounds like what the Flyers say about Shelly... And people get mad because of his cap hit. So I guess as fans, we do have an idea of how much those intangables are worth. Like I said I like Hartnell and I want him to stay, I just dont want to overpay. And IMO, for someone that averages 25 goals a year, and with his intangables.... 5 million if a fair market number. It more then Giroux, JVR. It's slightly less then what we were paying guys like Carter and Richards. Its more then players like Lucic, Marchand, and Horton. Its more then Dustin Brown, and David Legwand. All in all, 5 million sounds like a very fair deal IMO.
- RooNosHockey


You can't really compare it to Giroux or JvR-or Lucic, Marchand or Horton, those guys have not reached UFA status yet. It's apples and oranges. Players see the big raises when they hit UFA age, or if the team identifies them as long term assets and overpays them based on potential, as is the case with JvR, to give up a year or two of UFA eligibility immediately.
Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

May 21 @ 11:45 AM ET
Flyers have signed Derek Mathers to an EL deal.


- Jsaquella

Marshall Mathers

Literally the only rap I listen to....
RooNosHockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bear, DE
Joined: 10.25.2011

May 21 @ 11:47 AM ET
It could well be a matter of either or, though. It could very easily come down to having to overpay Hartnell to keep him. I agree on a shorter term, 3 or 4 years at absolute most, and honestly I could care less about the NTC on a 3 year deal.

Who knows, if they trade JvR this summer, then re-signing Hartnell certainly becomes more of a neccesity, and that's the rub. Not only do we not know where the cap is going to be, or what rules will be in place, we don;t know if guys like JvR will still be here.

That's why I suggest not speaking in absolutes. The picture is very fluid.

- Jsaquella


Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future. But it's going to be a long off-season if we can't discuss these types of things. Is your problem that I said 5 million? Would it be better to say I wouldn't over-pay for Hartnell? Would that settle this down?
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 21 @ 11:48 AM ET
Who do you keep Hartnell or JvR if you had to pick? I'll take JvR. Not that I don't think Hartnell is valuable but ill take the younger kid with more potential. I'm sure you would agree.
- stveshdy


Well, it's not really an easy question. In and of itself, of course you take the younger guy with vast potential.

However, JvR is a kid, who hasn't hit UFA yet. That means I can trade him for other assets to fill other holes.

In the case of Hartnell, the way he'd be gone is likely to be via UFA with no compensation.

So would I prefer trading JvR in a package for say, Brent Seabrook, Shea Weber or some other top defenseman and keeping Hartnell, or Keeping JvR and letting Hartnell walk for nothing, I lean towards the first option.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 21 @ 11:52 AM ET
Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future. But it's going to be a long off-season if we can't discuss these types of things. Is your problem that I said 5 million? Would it be better to say I wouldn't over-pay for Hartnell? Would that settle this down?
- RooNosHockey


What discussion are you making? You keep saying you'd sign him for no more than $5mm. You haven't offered up any other ideas on replacing him if he left, other than saying that the kids on hand would do it, haven't discussed other points made about guys reaching UFA status vs not being UFA yet(and consequently making less cash) and you dismiss out of hand factors that could cause the price to rise or fall. The future is far more in flux this summer than before, because there will eventually be a new CBA that dictates how deals can be made

You repeat your point and ignore all others. That's hardly a conversation.
RooNosHockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bear, DE
Joined: 10.25.2011

May 21 @ 11:54 AM ET
You can't really compare it to Giroux or JvR-or Lucic, Marchand or Horton, those guys have not reached UFA status yet. It's apples and oranges. Players see the big raises when they hit UFA age, or if the team identifies them as long term assets and overpays them based on potential, as is the case with JvR, to give up a year or two of UFA eligibility immediately.
- Jsaquella


Players can get market value as RFA's. Look at Weber and Stamkos. All you have to do is not sign what the team offers you. You can either take an offer from another team if your worth it, or file for arbritration and be awarded what is a correct number.

What I would like to do is, before this year starts, I would like it if Homer could resign Hartnell to a deal between 4.2-5 million. If he doesn't sign now, then keep working at it during the year, and if he wont come down to 5 million, then I would try and trade him at the deadline, or at the draft next year. It may be dificult with the NMC, but if Hartnell knows he wont be back next year anyway, he might agree to a trade. Locking up Hartnell now, may make it easier to trade JVR for some defensive help.
stveshdy
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 06.28.2010

May 21 @ 11:55 AM ET
Well, it's not really an easy question. In and of itself, of course you take the younger guy with vast potential.

However, JvR is a kid, who hasn't hit UFA yet. That means I can trade him for other assets to fill other holes.

In the case of Hartnell, the way he'd be gone is likely to be via UFA with no compensation.

So would I prefer trading JvR in a package for say, Brent Seabrook, Shea Weber or some other top defenseman and keeping Hartnell, or Keeping JvR and letting Hartnell walk for nothing, I lean towards the first option.

- Jsaquella


JvR got an extension which is almost based off what the UFA market probably would of paid him. So I think he is being compensated fairly. Hartnell is a player whos value will never be higher. Could they get him to waive his NTC I dont know but I rather keep JvR and move Hartnell if that was an option. JvR is a young kid who has the potential to be a stud. Theres no guarantee that JvR will land you any of those players mentioned.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 21 @ 11:56 AM ET
The point is, hopefully one of JVR, Voracek, Simmonds, or Schenn can step into his role, then your replacing a 3rd or 4th liner, which is cheaper and easier.
- RooNosHockey



You still have to find another player. And you still are potentially weakening your team. So again, your plan is to walk away from one of your best forwards and add a cheaper 3rd or 4th line player.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 21 @ 11:59 AM ET
If Jagr and Hartnell dont come back you also have an extra 7.5ish million to spend on 3rd and 4th liners, if you expect the young guys can up thier game.
- RooNosHockey



Are you suggesting spending 7.5M on a two players. A 3rd and 4th line player?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 21 @ 12:00 PM ET
I'm not drawing a line. I'm saying based on what we know now, what I would do. I like Hartnell, but I wouldnt pay him more then 5 million a year. That is all.
- RooNosHockey



What we know now? What is that we know now? What is that 5M number based on?
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