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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings -- Hartnell and Long-Term Planning
Author Message
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 21 @ 9:43 AM ET
IMO you cant afford to tie up more then 5 million in Hartnell. If he doesnt want that, that's his choice. He is a career 20-25 goal scorer. The Flyers cant afford to let 1 good year sway thier judgment. I really can't justify having him being the second highest paid forward, even though the 5 million a year will make him just that. If I'm Homer, I offer him 5 million with a limited NTC for 3 years.
- RooNosHockey



It would't be one good year swaying their judgement. It would be his entire body of work since he's been here. Last post it was the same rate or a slight raise. Now it's 5M.
RooNosHockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bear, DE
Joined: 10.25.2011

May 21 @ 9:44 AM ET
It would't be one good year swaying their judgement. It would be his entire body of work since he's been here. Last post it was the same rate or a slight raise. Now it's 5M.
- MJL


.5 million is a slight raise, is it not?
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

May 21 @ 9:47 AM ET
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 21 @ 9:49 AM ET
IMO you cant afford to tie up more then 5 million in Hartnell. If he doesnt want that, that's his choice. He is a career 20-25 goal scorer. The Flyers cant afford to let 1 good year sway thier judgment. I really can't justify having him being the second highest paid forward, even though the 5 million a year will make him just that. If I'm Homer, I offer him 5 million with a limited NTC for 3 years.
- RooNosHockey


You have to base what you pay him on several factors.

1. The cap. If it's higher then Hartnell having a higher cap hit isn't a huge deal

2. How can you replace him? It's the same thing with Matt Carle. Is paying Matt Carle $5mm better than paying Ryan Suter $7mm? Is it better to pay Hartnell $5.5mm or Corey Perry $7.8mm or so?

3. Where he fits, pay wise, is not a valid argument. Giroux is obviously their best forward, but he hasn't had UFA eligibility yet, so his contract isn't going to be as much as a guy who has hit the UFA market. You can't use a guy who hasn't hit UFA as a comparison point.
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

May 21 @ 9:51 AM ET
You never know what a player is willing to take to stay somewhere that he wants to stay. But it is very far fetched to expect Hartnell to sign for less then he did in a deal that was signed 6 years ago.
- MJL

That, sir, is an understatement
RooNosHockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bear, DE
Joined: 10.25.2011

May 21 @ 9:57 AM ET
You have to base what you pay him on several factors.

1. The cap. If it's higher then Hartnell having a higher cap hit isn't a huge deal

2. How can you replace him? It's the same thing with Matt Carle. Is paying Matt Carle $5mm better than paying Ryan Suter $7mm? Is it better to pay Hartnell $5.5mm or Corey Perry $7.8mm or so?

3. Where he fits, pay wise, is not a valid argument. Giroux is obviously their best forward, but he hasn't had UFA eligibility yet, so his contract isn't going to be as much as a guy who has hit the UFA market. You can't use a guy who hasn't hit UFA as a comparison point.

- Jsaquella


I hear you. I understand what your saying. But if I were the GM, I would base his salary on what I expect of him going forward, not just what he did last season. We have a lot of young forwards that are on ELC's right now. Soon they are going to be getting thier first significant raises. IMO we can only afford to have 1 bloated contact to work around. So if Hartnell isn't willing to take 5 million, which is more then fair IMO, then you have to let him walk. Or if you start negotiations now, if you cant work something out by the TDL, you ask him to waive his clause for the benefit of the team. Doesnt mean he will, but the Flyers cant afford to over pay based on 1 season.
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

May 21 @ 10:08 AM ET
I hear you. I understand what your saying. But if I were the GM, I would base his salary on what I expect of him going forward, not just what he did last season. We have a lot of young forwards that are on ELC's right now. Soon they are going to be getting thier first significant raises. IMO we can only afford to have 1 bloated contact to work around. So if Hartnell isn't willing to take 5 million, which is more then fair IMO, then you have to let him walk. Or if you start negotiations now, if you cant work something out by the TDL, you ask him to waive his clause for the benefit of the team. Doesnt mean he will, but the Flyers cant afford to over pay based on 1 season.
- RooNosHockey

It's not just based on one season, though. This past season was a career year for him, no doubt, but Hartnell has often been a top line player for the Flyers. I'm not saying hand Hartnell an enormous raise or anything, but I think you're selling him short with this '1 season' talk.
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

May 21 @ 10:11 AM ET
Anyone have any ideas why the Rags who have been thoroughly outplayed in 6 of 9 periods in the series thus far have a 2-1 series lead?

Is it the stellar defensive system Tortorella employs? Is it the shot blocking? Is it the players commitment in their own end? The Devils in game 3 had 9 odd man rushes, 5 power plays, and 25 scoring chances, how exactly does that equate to them being shutout?
aightwebang17
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Typical Montreal, PA
Joined: 07.10.2008

May 21 @ 10:15 AM ET
Anyone have any ideas why the Rags who have been thoroughly outplayed in 6 of 9 periods in the series thus far have a 2-1 series lead?

Is it the stellar defensive system Tortorella employs? Is it the shot blocking? Is it the players commitment in their own end? The Devils in game 3 had 9 odd man rushes, 5 power plays, and 25 scoring chances, how exactly does that equate to them being shutout?

- PLindbergh31

King Henrik and his over-sized equipment
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 21 @ 10:16 AM ET
I hear you. I understand what your saying. But if I were the GM, I would base his salary on what I expect of him going forward, not just what he did last season. We have a lot of young forwards that are on ELC's right now. Soon they are going to be getting thier first significant raises. IMO we can only afford to have 1 bloated contact to work around. So if Hartnell isn't willing to take 5 million, which is more then fair IMO, then you have to let him walk. Or if you start negotiations now, if you cant work something out by the TDL, you ask him to waive his clause for the benefit of the team. Doesnt mean he will, but the Flyers cant afford to over pay based on 1 season.
- RooNosHockey


I'd base it on the body of his work. How many consistent 20-25 goal scorers, who can be physical and gritty and who have consistently been on the team's top offensive line in each of the last three or four years are there out there? How expensive will they be to trade for or add as free agents?

Hartnell's been pretty consistent in putting up 20+ goals over the course of his Flyers career. Say you let Hartnell walk and Simmonds or JvR can't perform. Hartnell is a known quantity.
RooNosHockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bear, DE
Joined: 10.25.2011

May 21 @ 10:17 AM ET
It's not just based on one season, though. This past season was a career year for him, no doubt, but Hartnell has often been a top line player for the Flyers. I'm not saying hand Hartnell an enormous raise or anything, but I think you're selling him short with this '1 season' talk.
- BulliesPhan87


I don't think I'm selling him short by saying he is worth around 5 million. But I just think people are going to go wild by compairing him to other players that scored similiar amount of goals this year, like he should make that kind of money. He is one of our top line players, and 5 million would pay him as such.
FrankDrebbin
Location: PA
Joined: 02.27.2012

May 21 @ 10:17 AM ET
I dont think it would be far fetched to see him sign a similar contract.

He was paid nicely the first go around (some would say over paid). He loves the city, and as Bill pointed out, he is a power forward, who is 30+.

If the Flyers offered him a 3 year extension at the same hit, I believe he would agree to it. He wants a Cup. He wants to stay in Philly. He'll make it happen.

- jak521

Remember he lost half of his current contract in a divorce. He is gonna want top dollar.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 21 @ 10:21 AM ET
I don't think I'm selling him short by saying he is worth around 5 million. But I just think people are going to go wild by compairing him to other players that scored similiar amount of goals this year, like he should make that kind of money. He is one of our top line players, and 5 million would pay him as such.
- RooNosHockey


You compare him to others in his free agent class. Right now that includes Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaff.

You can compare him all you want to guys who are not free agents, but that's not where his market value is likely to be set. For instance, Ryan Suter is likely to set the UFA defense market this summer with his deal. Suter is better tha Dennis Wideman and Johnny Oduya, but teams that need defense will compare what Suter got in tendering offers for them.
OrangeBlack27
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: i do, mike, PA
Joined: 06.29.2006

May 21 @ 10:22 AM ET
If it weren't for the NTC, I would be selling high on Hartnell.

That being said, I look forward to another 20-goal, 50-point season from him.

- bradleyc4


RooNosHockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bear, DE
Joined: 10.25.2011

May 21 @ 10:22 AM ET
I'd base it on the body of his work. How many consistent 20-25 goal scorers, who can be physical and gritty and who have consistently been on the team's top offensive line in each of the last three or four years are there out there? How expensive will they be to trade for or add as free agents?

Hartnell's been pretty consistent in putting up 20+ goals over the course of his Flyers career. Say you let Hartnell walk and Simmonds or JvR can't perform. Hartnell is a known quantity.

- Jsaquella


Do you think he is worth more then 5 million? Should the Flyers strap themselves to a cap hit above that just because? Gagne was a special player. Richards, and Carter were special players... This is as much of a business as anything. You say he has been a consistant 20-25 goal scorer. His high offensive season this year is just as out of character as his under 20 goals a few seasons ago. IMO no team should pay a 20-25 goal scorer more then 5 million. Unless he brings other talents like passing or defense to the table.
RooNosHockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bear, DE
Joined: 10.25.2011

May 21 @ 10:27 AM ET
You compare him to others in his free agent class. Right now that includes Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaff.

You can compare him all you want to guys who are not free agents, but that's not where his market value is likely to be set. For instance, Ryan Suter is likely to set the UFA defense market this summer with his deal. Suter is better tha Dennis Wideman and Johnny Oduya, but teams that need defense will compare what Suter got in tendering offers for them.

- Jsaquella


I'm not sure if we are on the same page or not. I dont care what other people are making, and I don't care what he could get on the open market, and the Flyers shouldn't either. They should set a number that they feel he is worth. whether its the same 4.5 million or a raise to 5 million... And offer it to him. If he doesn't like it, I'm not getting into a bidding war for him, and I'm not going to over pay him. He is a valuable player, but every dollar you over pay him, is less money you have to better your team or keep your young players.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

May 21 @ 10:30 AM ET
King Henrik and his over-sized equipment
- aightwebang17


There you go and take the bait. He teed that one up like you were a 4 year old swinging a bat for the first time.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 21 @ 10:31 AM ET
Do you think he is worth more then 5 million? Should the Flyers strap themselves to a cap hit above that just because? Gagne was a special player. Richards, and Carter were special players... This is as much of a business as anything. You say he has been a consistant 20-25 goal scorer. His high offensive season this year is just as out of character as his under 20 goals a few seasons ago. IMO no team should pay a 20-25 goal scorer more then 5 million. Unless he brings other talents like passing or defense to the table.
- RooNosHockey


Gagne was a special player? Gagne was a good player, who was far from durable. He had some very good seasons.

Hartnell has averaged 25.8 goals per season as a Flyer. Gagne averaged 25.9 goals per season as a Flyer. Hartnell does bring other talents to the table, too.

He's a physical presence, who also does a great job at getting the other team off it's game. He's a very solid power play contributor. He's well respected in the room and is durable.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 21 @ 10:35 AM ET
I'm not sure if we are on the same page or not. I dont care what other people are making, and I don't care what he could get on the open market, and the Flyers shouldn't either. They should set a number that they feel he is worth. whether its the same 4.5 million or a raise to 5 million... And offer it to him. If he doesn't like it, I'm not getting into a bidding war for him, and I'm not going to over pay him. He is a valuable player, but every dollar you over pay him, is less money you have to better your team or keep your young players.
- RooNosHockey


You have to base his value on team needs and what the market will bear. It's often not as simple as saying, "I won't go higher than $XXX on a player"

Nobody knows where the cap will be, or what the market value for players like Hartnell will be in a year form now. You have to care what other players will get because you will have to replace what Hartnell does. It's not NHL 12.

If you let Hartnell walk, how do you replace him? Is it better to have a guy with a somewhat overpriced cap hit or to trade valuable assets to replace him after he's gone?
Don'tForgetTocchet
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ground Zero Brooklyn
Joined: 02.08.2007

May 21 @ 10:36 AM ET

- OrangeBlack27


oh, brad.
ravishingone
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, PA
Joined: 06.30.2007

May 21 @ 10:37 AM ET
I believe the Flyers will resign Hartnell, and overpay slightly. Really, that's what the Flyers do is overpay somewhat for talent, which when trying to recruit players is good thing going for the organization. I expect a 3 year, maybe 4 year extension.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 21 @ 10:54 AM ET
.5 million is a slight raise, is it not?
- RooNosHockey



5M would be an 800K raise over his current Cap hit. I guess it depends on what you're definition of a slight raise is.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 21 @ 10:58 AM ET
I don't think I'm selling him short by saying he is worth around 5 million. But I just think people are going to go wild by compairing him to other players that scored similiar amount of goals this year, like he should make that kind of money. He is one of our top line players, and 5 million would pay him as such.
- RooNosHockey



No comparing him to similar players ins't going wild. That's how it's done. That's what set's the market, and the NHL salary structure. If Hartnell continues to play next Season as he did this past Season. 5M is under market and he'd be worth more in the open UFA market.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 21 @ 10:59 AM ET
Do you think he is worth more then 5 million? Should the Flyers strap themselves to a cap hit above that just because? Gagne was a special player. Richards, and Carter were special players... This is as much of a business as anything. You say he has been a consistant 20-25 goal scorer. His high offensive season this year is just as out of character as his under 20 goals a few seasons ago. IMO no team should pay a 20-25 goal scorer more then 5 million. Unless he brings other talents like passing or defense to the table.
- RooNosHockey



Just because? Is that really why the Flyers would be re-signing him? Hartnell doesn't bring other talents to the table besides goal scoring?
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

May 21 @ 11:00 AM ET
Former Flyers draft pick Michael Chaput is having a really good Memorial Cup tourney. Had a goal and two assists yesterday and won 25 of 32 faceoffs.

So glad the Flyers traded him for Sestito.
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