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Forums :: Blog World :: Ian Esplen: 7 Spots for Lu
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Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: “Give me Point, Cirelli and Paul all day against anybody.” Mr. Cooper , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Apr 29 @ 3:41 PM ET
See Brian Campbell to Florida, Florida needed salary to make the floor, Campbell's contract made him far overpaid in SJ and Chicago, although in Florida he's done much better.
- DariusKnight



One year younger than Luongo with five years when they made the trade
VANTEL
Joined: 07.03.2010

Apr 29 @ 3:41 PM ET
$5.3m for an old back up to hit the floor or just hope he decides to retire --- great plan
- Canada Cup

Fine if TO can not afford to pay 6 mil over 4 years to put a goalie in the minors then there is no use talking about a 6 year /40 mil contract. Get whomeve you need to play goals I really don't care anyways.
Jeffmt
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 10.11.2006

Apr 29 @ 3:42 PM ET
$5.3m for an old back up to hit the floor or just hope he decides to retire --- great plan
- Canada Cup


His actual salary goes down significantly in his last 4 years though. The whole point of that sort of trade is to eat up lots of cap space without having to spend a lot of actual money.

Over the last 4 years of the contract (assuming he plays it out) he'll be paid about 7M while eating up over 21M of cap space. That's good value for a cap floor team.
Boinker
Vancouver Canucks
Joined: 10.24.2010

Apr 29 @ 3:42 PM ET
I love how all 3 of us are arguing the same points....
- kneughter


I just hate it when people think Luongo isn't a top 15 goalie. He's easily top 10. Schneider is just flat out better. That's why Luongo is going to be traded. It has nothing to do with Luongo's play or contract. He actually played well in the playoffs and had a good season.
Boosinicka
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 07.25.2010

Apr 29 @ 3:43 PM ET
Florida traded for/signed some pretty wonky contracts this year for that reason, it just happened to work out for them so everyone forgot about it. With the cap floor going up every year I can see it happening more often.

Luongo's contract is almost tailor made for that purpose. I'm sure there are a couple of teams that wouldn't mind taking on a 5.3M hit but only paying out a million of it.

- Jeffmt


Ah yes I forgot about them (probably b/c of their division win) and yes I agree that contract helps those teams, but not right now.
steve362
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: St. John's, NF
Joined: 07.07.2010

Apr 29 @ 3:44 PM ET
I just hate it when people think Luongo isn't a top 15 goalie. He's easily top 10. Schneider is just flat out better. That's why Luongo is going to be traded. It has nothing to do with Luongo's play or contract. He actually played well in the playoffs and had a good season.
- Boinker


Vancouver has a good team as well though... Luongo didn't carry the team. You put Luongo on Columbus would it make a significant difference? I doub't it - maybe a 3-4 wins in the difference. Not saying he isn't good - but his stats are certainly padded from playing with the President's trophy winners
kneughter
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: “yup call came in, but as pe
Joined: 07.14.2009

Apr 29 @ 3:45 PM ET
I think people have the wrong idea about the potential Luongo trade... The benefit for the Nucks' is getting rid of Luongo, you are not getting anything in return simply because of that contract.

No first rounder, No Prospects and definitely no top 6 forwards.

Tampa would likely give up Malone and a 2nd, Toronto Armstong and a 2nd, Florida Upshall and a 3rd, Columbus Huselius and a 4th, etc, etc, etc...

Unless Gillis doesn't want to trade Luongo.... .... then he is on the first thing smoking out of Vancouver as soon as someone makes an offer.

- steve362


How many times can people dispute the claim that his contract is not movable... look at campbell... gomez... etc.

His cap hit is very friendly for a goalie of his calibre.... who cares about the length... it was set up as a cap circumventing contract. The intention was when Lu was around 39/40. When he is no longer capable of being a true #1 he is going to retire.

You think he is going to stick around for another 2-3 years making 1 million per... to be a back up goalie.. and have every fan hate him because he is taking up 5.3 million in cap space? He is way too competitive to even play as a back up goalie... he will retire when that happens. He has a family to think about... at that point about 95 percent of his contract is paid out. He will be more than set for life. This isn't even including that there are out clauses... and he has a NTC... not a NMC.

There are already teams that are interested in him according to real hockey insiders like dreger and mackenzie. Probably about 4-5 teams will be seriously interested in him which will lead to some sort of bidding war.

Again... no one is saying kings ransom... but a top 6... and a prospect/pick is more than fair. Give your head a shake pal...
isles10289
Joined: 02.17.2009

Apr 29 @ 3:45 PM ET
Why does Florida want Luongo to mentor Markstrom if Markstrom is cheap and NHL ready, along with the whole world seeing the problem Vancouver is having with two goalies? Also, Toronto was kind of still in it at the deadline, and there were no goalies of Luongo's caliber on the market at the deadline. There's a difference between trading for Luongo and trading for one of the scrubs available at the deadline. How does Burke not wanting Antero Nittymaki tell you he's not interested in adding a goalie? It just proves that he doesn't want to add a bad goalie. It's also comical that you think you're getting Luke Schenn and a first for Luongo lol
VANTEL
Joined: 07.03.2010

Apr 29 @ 3:46 PM ET
Ah yes I forgot about them (probably b/c of their division win) and yes I agree that contract helps those teams, but not right now.
- Boosinicka


I think teams like Fla, Car ,Pho , even Wpg , will be looking for contracts like that also in the future.
steve362
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: St. John's, NF
Joined: 07.07.2010

Apr 29 @ 3:49 PM ET
How many times can people dispute the claim that his contract is not movable... look at campbell... gomez... etc.

His cap hit is very friendly for a goalie of his calibre.... who cares about the length... it was set up as a cap circumventing contract. The intention was when Lu was around 39/40. When he is no longer capable of being a true #1 he is going to retire.

You think he is going to stick around for another 2-3 years making 1 million per... to be a back up goalie.. and have every fan hate him because he is taking up 5.3 million in cap space? He is way too competitive to even play as a back up goalie... he will retire when that happens. He has a family to think about... at that point about 95 percent of his contract is paid out. He will be more than set for life. This isn't even including that there are out clauses... and he has a NTC... not a NMC.

There are already teams that are interested in him according to real hockey insiders like dreger and mackenzie. Probably about 4-5 teams will be seriously interested in him which will lead to some sort of bidding war.

Again... no one is saying kings ransom... but a top 6... and a prospect/pick is more than fair. Give your head a shake pal...

- kneughter


Reverse the situation... You have Dan Cloutier and could obtain Luongo for 10 years when he is 33. Would you offer Alex Burrows and a 1st for him? That's what you are suggesting other teams do. I never said teams are not interested but I highly doubt that anything significant will be going the other way.
isles10289
Joined: 02.17.2009

Apr 29 @ 3:50 PM ET
It only makes sense if there are no takers for Lu. Again Leafs will be sitting trying to dictate a trade in which they have No Hand .Seriously that is why no one trades with them. You want a top 15 goalie and want to give back crap.
- VANTEL


Way to conveniently not mention that whoever trades for him is paying him over $5M per year when he's over 40 years old. The Leafs have some hand; the Canucks don't have as much bargaining power as you seem to think.
kneughter
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: “yup call came in, but as pe
Joined: 07.14.2009

Apr 29 @ 3:50 PM ET
Vancouver has a good team as well though... Luongo didn't carry the team. You put Luongo on Columbus would it make a significant difference? I doub't it - maybe a 3-4 wins in the difference. Not saying he isn't good - but his stats are certainly padded from playing with the President's trophy winners
- steve362


Canucks are not defensively minded.... they give up about as many 2 on 1s... 3 on 1s and breakaways as about any team in the league.

Hes already proven he can carry a team on his back into the playoffs and past the 1st round single handedly... his first year here he had almost no scoring support.. and should have won the Hart... at the very least the Vezina.

This team won the Jennings last year because of how well Lu/ Schneider played... and that this team is a puck possession team (much like detroit)... they still give up a ton of quality scoring chances though.
MaximusAurelius
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: #FireDubas
Joined: 04.23.2012

Apr 29 @ 3:50 PM ET
if burke is looking to trade for one player on vancouver it will be mason raymond
VANTEL
Joined: 07.03.2010

Apr 29 @ 3:51 PM ET
Reverse the situation... You have Dan Cloutier and could obtain Luongo for 10 years when he is 33. Would you offer Alex Burrows and a 1st for him? That's what you are suggesting other teams do. I never said teams are not interested but I highly doubt that anything significant will be going the other way.
- steve362


If I had Cloutier I would take Luongo in a heartbeat.
VANTEL
Joined: 07.03.2010

Apr 29 @ 3:53 PM ET
Way to conveniently not mention that whoever trades for him is paying him over $5M per year when he's over 40 years old. The Leafs have some hand; the Canucks don't have as much bargaining power as you seem to think.
- isles10289



I would not expect an Isles fan to have a clue about good goaltending contracts.
kneughter
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: “yup call came in, but as pe
Joined: 07.14.2009

Apr 29 @ 3:53 PM ET
Reverse the situation... You have Dan Cloutier and could obtain Luongo for 10 years when he is 33. Would you offer Alex Burrows and a 1st for him? That's what you are suggesting other teams do. I never said teams are not interested but I highly doubt that anything significant will be going the other way.
- steve362


Burrows was a terrible example because at 2 million has one the best valued contracts in the league... I never said the Canucks didn't have to take back a "over priced" top 6 guy. Possibly a Ryan Malone.... a guy who is about 1 million per year over paid.

But they will get a comination of a top 6 player... top 4 D... 1 of these... + a decent prospect... mid level pick. and 1 of these. Chances are the top 4 D or the top 6 forward will be the salary coming back.

Fair value for both sides...
Morris
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Hall looks disengaged, NS
Joined: 07.18.2007

Apr 29 @ 3:53 PM ET
Ian Esplen: 7 Spots for Lu
7 Spots for Lu

- IanEsplen

Really excellent write up, as always

I may be wrong, but I see approximately 0 scenarios in which 10 years of 5.3 cap hit are traded with (little or) no salary coming back. If Gillis is waiting for that, he will having Lu on his roster next year.

I can really only comment on the teams that I know a bit about, so in Edmonton or Toronto's case, I think they pass.

For Edmonton, it's not that it's a high price to pay asset wise, but it creates a huge conundrum cap wise. Plus, Pajaarvi has two things that the oilers desperately need to succeed. #1: Size. We can't really afford to trade away one of our best combinations of size and skill. #2 Paajarvi one of the only Oilers that stands a chance of outperforming his cap hit. Eberle's payday is definitely coming, and Hall's too. Hemsky and Horcoff will most likely be overpaid. Our best chance at staying cap compliant is having Pajaarvi hitting his stride while still on a bargain second contract.

For Toronto, again, it's not the assets, it's that you're talking about trading Lu to a larger and more brutal pressure cooker in Toronto. You think Toronto fans will be satisfied with Lu backstopping them to the playoffs simply because they haven't been there for a while? Good will would last for about a week, then they'd demand a Conn Smythe performance. There's no escaping pressure in Toronto.

Further, Burke hates long contracts and loopy contracts. Say what you will about his style and his bravado, he generally sticks to his guns.
steve362
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: St. John's, NF
Joined: 07.07.2010

Apr 29 @ 3:54 PM ET
If I had Cloutier I would take Luongo in a heartbeat.
- VANTEL


And you would give up Burrows and a first and pay Luongo a 5+ cap hit until he is 43?
kneughter
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: “yup call came in, but as pe
Joined: 07.14.2009

Apr 29 @ 3:55 PM ET
Why does Florida want Luongo to mentor Markstrom if Markstrom is cheap and NHL ready, along with the whole world seeing the problem Vancouver is having with two goalies? Also, Toronto was kind of still in it at the deadline, and there were no goalies of Luongo's caliber on the market at the deadline. There's a difference between trading for Luongo and trading for one of the scrubs available at the deadline. How does Burke not wanting Antero Nittymaki tell you he's not interested in adding a goalie? It just proves that he doesn't want to add a bad goalie. It's also comical that you think you're getting Luke Schenn and a first for Luongo lol
- isles10289


Schenn is a 5/6 Defensive minded defenseman who can't play defense.... we don't want him
steve362
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: St. John's, NF
Joined: 07.07.2010

Apr 29 @ 3:55 PM ET
Really excellent write up, as always

I may be wrong, but I see approximately 0 scenarios in which 10 years of 5.3 cap hit are traded with (little or) no salary coming back. If Gillis is waiting for that, he will having Lu on his roster next year.

I can really only comment on the teams that I know a bit about, so in Edmonton or Toronto's case, I think they pass.

For Edmonton, it's not that it's a high price to pay asset wise, but it creates a huge conundrum cap wise. Plus, Pajaarvi has two things that the oilers desperately need to succeed. #1: Size. We can't really afford to trade away one of our best combinations of size and skill. #2 Paajarvi one of the only Oilers that stands a chance of outperforming his cap hit. Eberle's payday is definitely coming, and Hall's too. Hemsky and Horcoff will most likely be overpaid. Our best chance at staying cap compliant is having Pajaarvi hitting his stride while still on a bargain second contract.

For Toronto, again, it's not the assets, it's that you're talking about trading Lu to a larger and more brutal pressure cooker in Toronto. You think Toronto fans will be satisfied with Lu backstopping them to the playoffs simply because they haven't been there for a while? Good will would last for about a week, then they'd demand a Conn Smythe performance. There's no escaping pressure in Toronto.

Further, Burke hates long contracts and loopy contracts. Say what you will about his style and his bravado, he generally sticks to his guns.

- Morris


This!
VANTEL
Joined: 07.03.2010

Apr 29 @ 3:56 PM ET
And you would give up Burrows and a first and pay Luongo a 5+ cap hit until he is 43?
- steve362

If it was Burrows first year, yes.I gets frustrating to keep repeating Luongo will not play till he is 43. He will retire at 39 or 40.
FinAddict
Joined: 07.02.2010

Apr 29 @ 3:58 PM ET
'Roberto is still, in many people’s opinion, a top 15 goalie in the league.'

I'd like someone to name me 10 better goalies in the league than Luongo, that have been proven for more than just a season.

- snipesydangle

Quick, Lundqvist, Rinne, Fleury, Howard, Kipper, Thomas, Anderson, Lehtonen, Miller, Ward, Hiller, Price, Backstrom

I'd take any of them over Lou
kneughter
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: “yup call came in, but as pe
Joined: 07.14.2009

Apr 29 @ 3:58 PM ET
Really excellent write up, as always

I may be wrong, but I see approximately 0 scenarios in which 10 years of 5.3 cap hit are traded with (little or) no salary coming back. If Gillis is waiting for that, he will having Lu on his roster next year.

I can really only comment on the teams that I know a bit about, so in Edmonton or Toronto's case, I think they pass.

For Edmonton, it's not that it's a high price to pay asset wise, but it creates a huge conundrum cap wise. Plus, Pajaarvi has two things that the oilers desperately need to succeed. #1: Size. We can't really afford to trade away one of our best combinations of size and skill. #2 Paajarvi one of the only Oilers that stands a chance of outperforming his cap hit. Eberle's payday is definitely coming, and Hall's too. Hemsky and Horcoff will most likely be overpaid. Our best chance at staying cap compliant is having Pajaarvi hitting his stride while still on a bargain second contract.

For Toronto, again, it's not the assets, it's that you're talking about trading Lu to a larger and more brutal pressure cooker in Toronto. You think Toronto fans will be satisfied with Lu backstopping them to the playoffs simply because they haven't been there for a while? Good will would last for about a week, then they'd demand a Conn Smythe performance. There's no escaping pressure in Toronto.

Further, Burke hates long contracts and loopy contracts. Say what you will about his style and his bravado, he generally sticks to his guns.

- Morris


I agree with what you are saying... IF canucks were to trade Lu to edmonton... it would have to be for a guy like... Ryan Whitney... but again... why would edmonton need to shed salary? They only really have 2 bad contracts... although you may only agree with Horcoff... but taking Horcoff would not be a fair trade for Canucks.

Tampa and NJ is the only real trade possibility in my eyes.. and Tampa being the only team that would need us to take back salary ie. Malone/Lecavlier.
kneughter
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: “yup call came in, but as pe
Joined: 07.14.2009

Apr 29 @ 4:00 PM ET
Quick, Lundqvist, Rinne, Fleury, Howard, Kipper, Thomas, Anderson, Lehtonen, Miller, Ward, Hiller, Price, Backstrom

I'd take any of them over Lou

- FinAddict


Miller = 1 hit wonder.

and Lehtonen and Anderson??
kneughter
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: “yup call came in, but as pe
Joined: 07.14.2009

Apr 29 @ 4:01 PM ET
And you would give up Burrows and a first and pay Luongo a 5+ cap hit until he is 43?
- steve362


Why would Lu play until he is 40.. let alone 43? Do any of you have any idea how his contract is structured? It would be stupid of him.
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