I honestly think him being captain is gonna be a road block in adding quality vets... Who's gonna want to play on a team with him as the leader?
- robin_steele264

Yup yup...here's to hoping Carlyle makes a change. If Dion really thinks he's Captain material, he'll accept the switch like a man and work his butt off to prove Carlyle wrong.

Overrated.
- Unholy_Goalie

fascist

That is DEEP!!!!!
- stormeyAlterEgo

i go superhero heavy psyhcoanalysis on that mother(frank)er.

*agrees with French*


*cuts self*
- stormeyAlterEgo

*pours acid on stormey*

Overrated.
- Unholy_Goalie

Yeah perhaps. I'm just saying where he's ranked.

Have you watched him or are you going by reports?

Overrated.
- Unholy_Goalie

There's no question it's risky to spend a 1st round pick on a goalie. Using stats from my study of the NHL draft this past summer, the average success rate of a 1st round pick, regardless of position is 65% vs. 37% for goalies drafted in the decade before the lockout. Unless a team has a major organizational need or it's a relatively weak draft year for skaters, drafting goaltenders in the 1st round is a risky endeavour, even more so with a lottery pick.

The sweet spot now appears to be the 2nd round. The success rate for skaters drafted in the 2nd round drops to 27% vs. 25.9% for goalies drafted between 1995-2004. Given that teams typically select just one netminder, the 2nd round appears to be the best spot where the risk is comparable to all other positions.

Teams were more than twice as likely (45.7% vs. 22.5%) to draft a quality goalie in the 1st four rounds from 1985-1994 with 37% fewer picks than the 1995-2004 era. Why? Because teams typically waited longer to draft goalies meaning there was more quality available for teams willing to use a higher pick to acquire them. The surge seen in the 9th round from 1985-1994 will be explained later when European goaltenders are studied. Overall however, the success rate fell from 22.4% on average to just 16.7 prior to the lockout.

What rounds have typically produced both quantity and quality goaltending over the years? By breaking down the draft years by round, a clear pattern emerges that demonstrates how teams are drafting successful goalies earlier than ever before. In short, the deeper into the draft you go, the further back in time you go to find quality netminders.

Given that teams now typically draft less than one goalie per year and that the odds of selecting a quality netminder after the 3rd round has fallen to just 12.2% it's easy to understand why so many teams go several years, sometimes even a decade or longer before finding a quality goaltender. It also shows that the majority of teams still waiting until rounds 4, 5 and 6 need to re-think their draft strategy.




FEW EXAMPLES

Rd Year Team Name GP
2 2006 Washington Michal Neuvirth* 44
2 2005 Atlanta Ondrej Pavelec* 82
2 2003 Detroit Jim Howard* 96
2 2002 Minnesota Josh Harding* 83
2 2001 Colorado Peter Budaj* 214
2 2000 Anaheim Ilya Bryzgalov* 284
2 2000 Dallas Dan Ellis* 131
2 1999 Florida Alex Auld* 210
2 1996 Montreal Mathieu Garon* 254
2 1994 Montreal Jose Theodore* 559
2 1993 Florida Kevin Weekes 350
2 1992 Washington Jim Carey 172
2 1990 Toronto Felix Potvin 640
2 1989 Washington Byron Dafoe 415
2 1988 Colorado Stephane Fiset 390
2 1987 Pittsburgh Rick Tabaracci 287
2 1987 Los Angeles Mark Fitzpatrick 329
2 1987 NY Islanders Jeff Hackett 500
2 1985 New Jersey Sean Burke 820
2 1985 Carolina Kay Whitmore 155
2 1985 NY Rangers Mike Richter 666

Rd Year Team Name GP
3 2006 Columbus Steve Mason* 139
3 2005 Los Angeles Jonathan Quick* 141
3 2001 Chicago Craig Anderson* 195
3 2000 Toronto Mikael Tellqvist 114
3 1999 Calgary Craig Anderson* - Unsigned 195
3 1999 Pittsburgh Sebastien Caron 92
3 1998 NY Rangers Jason Labarbera* 130
3 1995 Pittsburgh Jean-Sebastien Aubin 218
3 1992 Colorado Manny Fernandez 325
3 1991 NY Islanders Jamie McLennan 254
3 1991 Detroit Chris Osgood* 739
3 1990 New Jersey Mike Dunham 394
3 1988 Phoenix Stephane Beauregard 90
3 1988 Philadelphia Dominic Roussel 205
3 1986 Washington Jim Hrivnak 85
3 1985 Boston Bill Ranford 647
3 1985 Phoenix Daniel Berthiaume 215

Rd Year Team Name GP
4 2001 Ottawa Ray Emery 163
4 1995 San Jose Vesa Toskala 266
4 1991 NY Islanders Milan Hnilicka 121
4 1986 Detroit Tim Cheveldae 340
4 1986 Colorado Ron Tugnutt 538

Rd Year Team Name GP
5 2001 Edmonton Jussi Markkanen 128
5 2001 Dallas Mike Smith* 156
5 1999 Buffalo Ryan Miller* 355
5 1998 Boston Andrew Raycroft* 260
5 1995 San Jose Miikka Kiprusoff* 485
5 1995 New Jersey Chris Mason* 268
5 1995 Colorado Brent Johnson* 281
5 1994 Dallas Marty Turco* 529
5 1993 Anaheim Mikhail Shtalenkov 224
5 1993 NY Islanders Tommy Salo 526
5 1991 Buffalo Steve Shields 246

Rd Year Team Name GP
6 2001 Atlanta Pasi Nurminen 125
6 2000 Philadelphia Roman Cechmanek 212
6 1999 Chicago Mike Leighton* 103
6 1998 Philadelphia Antero Niittymaki* 227
6 1997 Colorado David Aebischer 214
6 1996 Phoenix Robert Esche 186
6 1993 Pittsburgh Patrick Lalime* 442
6 1990 Dallas Roman Turek 328
6 1987 Toronto Damian Rhodes 309
6 1987 Colorado Garth Snow 368

Rd Year Team Name GP
7 2002 Tampa Bay Fredrik Norrena 100
7 2001 Los Angeles Cristobal Huet 272
7 2000 NY Rangers Henrik Lundqvist* 364
7 1997 NY Rangers Johan Holmqvist 98
7 1985 St. Louis Pat Jablonski 128

Rd Year Team Name GP
8 2004 Nashville Pekka Rinne* 132
8 2001 Anaheim Martin Gerber 226
8 1997 New Jersey Scott Clemmensen* 98
8 1993 Carolina Manny Legace 365
8 1991 NY Rangers Corey Hirsch 108
8 1987 St. Louis Guy Hebert 491

Rd Year Team Name GP
9 2003 Montreal Jaroslav Halak* 125
9 2003 Ottawa Brian Elliott* 109
9 1994 Colorado Tim Thomas* 283
9 1994 Philadelphia Johan Hedberg* 306
9 1994 San Jose Evgeni Nabokov 563
9 1994 Montreal Tomas Vokoun* 599
9 1994 Boston John Grahame 224
9 1992 Colorado Steve Passmore 93
9 1992 Phoenix Nikolai Khabibulin* 717
9 1988 Buffalo Wade Flaherty 120

Rd Year Team Name GP
10 1990 New Jersey Corey Schwab 147
10 1989 Dallas Arturs Irbe 568
- noename09

Dam you and your facts.

i go superhero heavy psyhcoanalysis on that mother(frank)er.
- joel878

Keep diverting from the argument at hand if it makes you feel better. When you compare the 1st round to all the other rounds and see what the percentages are really like, come back.
- Unholy_Goalie

god, you're a dolt.

that argument has ZERO bearing when you shut your mouth and open your ears to the mentality that my stance (and most arguing against the list) was in direct opposition to drafting a goaltender in any round.

of course, we're going to have to get past your i know everything, everyone else knows nothing, mentality for this discussion to progress any further in any form of mature state.

*agrees with French*


*cuts self*
- stormeyAlterEgo

*cheers wildly*

Yup yup...here's to hoping Carlyle makes a change. If Dion really thinks he's Captain material, he'll accept the switch like a man and work his butt off to prove Carlyle wrong.
- Juice

I dunno if the Lord Burkie will authorize such a move.

god, you're a dolt.

that argument has ZERO bearing when you shut your mouth and open your ears to the mentality that my stance (and most arguing against the list) was in direct opposition to drafting a goaltender in any round.

of course, we're going to have to get past your i know everything, everyone else knows nothing, mentality for this discussion to progress any further in any form of mature state.
- joel878

SHAZAM

Yup yup...here's to hoping Carlyle makes a change. If Dion really thinks he's Captain material, he'll accept the switch like a man and work his butt off to prove Carlyle wrong.
- Juice

Worst case scenario Dion pouts and asks for a trade. Win-Win really.

*agrees with French*


*cuts self*
- stormeyAlterEgo

*Universe implodes*

Dam you and your facts.
- burn

Sorry boys...noename has spoken.

NOBODIES SAYING USE THE TOP-5 PICK ON A GOALIE FOR (frank)S SAKES.

Sorry boys...noename has spoken.
- noename09

You're ugly.

Unless a team has a major organizational need or it's a relatively weak draft year for skaters, drafting goaltenders in the 1st round is a risky endeavour, even more so with a lottery pick.
- noename09

Nobody said to use the lottery pick on a goalie. Nobody. But right here you just highlighted why the Leafs wouldn't be crazy to use a late 1st round pick on a goalie. The Leafs need a goalie and the rest of the draft isn't exactly strong for what the Leafs need.

zip

NOBODIES SAYING USE THE TOP-5 PICK ON A GOALIE FOR (frank)S SAKES.
- AdamFrench

*posts huge list anyways*

NOBODIES SAYING USE THE TOP-5 PICK ON A GOALIE FOR (frank)S SAKES.
- AdamFrench

I think I might start saying that.

Just to raise trouble.

NOBODIES SAYING USE THE TOP-5 PICK ON A GOALIE FOR (frank)S SAKES.
- AdamFrench

Nobody's

god, you're a dolt.
- joel878

Your white flag has a stain on it.

Leafs should use their top 5 pick on a goalie.

*runs*

I think I might start saying that.

Just to raise trouble.
- jbold

Build from the net out.