The likelihood of a Cam Ward or JSG drops off for sure as the round go on.

the leafs can not afford to use a pick in the #1-8 range on a goalie. but somewhere in the 15-30 range absolutely, if they can pick up another pick and grab one of the top rated goalies they should
- senstroll

Subban or the Russian kid from the WJ are ranked around 18 and 22 on McKenzie's list. A move at the draft might get them a first in and around there......someone said MacArthur could get the Leafs that but I say no way.

Looking at the selections, I remain convinced that spending high picks on goalie prospects is generally a mistake.
- noename09

Compare that to all the other rounds in the draft now. Nobody ever does that.

YOU KNEW WHAT THAT WAS!!!

You clingy women are all the same.
- Juice

Will you be wearing those pink chaps again?

http://t3.gstatic.com/ima...diS7YAnx4p1EM7aGhb3Y3ONlw

Another one I saw coming...
- Unholy_Goalie

I think most people did, however most people wanted to be wrong about that and it sucks that they're/we're not.

Exactly why trading MacArthur and Grabovski is something they should have done at the deadline. Three first round picks. One in the top ten, one in the 11th to 20th range and one in the 21st to 30th range. Perfect.
- Unholy_Goalie

100% agreed

I like Grabo... but not at 5.5 and not in the current state the leafs are.. we need more picks than 2nd liners right now.

Compare that 28% success rate against any other round in the draft and you will quickly see why it makes sense. If success is 28% in the 1st round, you can bet your last dollar it's 2.8% in the 7th round.
- Unholy_Goalie

where does your percentage go when you change the list to stanley cup winning goalies drafted in the first round?

goalies have historically proven time and time again to require years and years of development. why be so in favour of becoming another victim of that process, in favour of seeking to acquire goaltenders other teams have already done that investing in? the 23-25 year old tenders have been traded more in the past, then successful goalies have come out of the first round of the draft.

Sorry brah, didn't see it.

I kinda like it...the Leafs have gotten off VERY easy considering how HUGE the collapse was/is.

Dion needs to step up his game, everyone knew back when he was named Captain that it was a risky choice and it's clear now that he's not cut out for it at this point.

He doesn't lead on the ice and he's a terrible interview...sorry, but that's part of being captain, you own up to stuff and you take responsibility for it...you don't say "you lose as a team" even if it's true...he should be saying "as captain of this team, especially an original 6 team, it's my job to lead by example on the ice and get the guys to step it up and I haven't done that. I take full responsibility as captain of this team".
- Juice

Yeah definetely...I like it, its pretty hilarious. I do feel bad for some of the interviews though. Like Kessel and Gardiner have been 2 of our best players all year and are the future of the team even they were getting grilled. Luke Schenn looked (frank)in livid too. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up trading him this summer. He'll be a star d-man somewhere else in the end just like Leafs past

Will you be wearing those pink chaps again?

http://t3.gstatic.com/ima...diS7YAnx4p1EM7aGhb3Y3ONlw
- Symba007

Will be?

someone said MacArthur could get the Leafs that but I say no way.
- Domidives

At the deadline, if Gaustad was worth a 1st, then yes, MacArthur could have got one. Unfortunately, the deadline has passed. Nobody will give up a 1st for MacArthur until the next deadline. And that's if he holds his value and the market commands that price. Same goes for Grabovski but with his 5.5 million per year cap hit, nobody is going to take that at the draft.

Subban or the Russian kid from the WJ are ranked around 18 and 22 on McKenzie's list. A move at the draft might get them a first in and around there......someone said MacArthur could get the Leafs that but I say no way.
- Domidives

Pick a goalie with a late 1st rounder or pick Wilson....tough choice

Will be?
- Juice

Funny how only one guy still continues in the face of the facts against him.
- burn

some people are just a little special like that.

I think most people did, however most people wanted to be wrong about that and it sucks that they're/we're not.
- Juice

Anybody who signs Piano Man that badly doesn't deserve any sort of captaincy.

Twenty-six goalies were selected in the first 30 picks in the 10 drafts I considered, a little under three per season. Of that group, 10 went in the first 10 picks of the draft. Here’s the list:





For a goalie pick to be considered a success, he had to be a starting goalie. For the sake of fairness, all the guys who have yet to lock down a starting job but have a decent shot at doing so (Dubnyk, Rask and Schneider) were counted as starters. My reasoning on what a successful goalie is couldn’t be more simple: each year, the market is flooded with a high quantity of cheap and capable backups. Martin Biron is playing in New York for less than $900,000 per season, Jean-Sebastien Giguere is in Colorado for $1.25 million, and so on. Since teams can add these guys for minimal dollars and spend no draft picks or development time on them, a goalie drafted in the first round who five years down the road turns into a serviceable backup goalie is considered a failed draft pick.

Five goalies were taken with top-five picks, and outside of Rick DiPietro (injuries being a significant factor there, though in four full seasons as a starter he really only had one good year and one serviceable year) all of them turned into capable starting goalies. Five others were taken in the top-10; they range from outright busts (Finley, Krahn) to more debatable busts, but none of them were worth a top-10 selection.

In the end, 18 of the 26 goalies selected ended up providing minimal value in exchange for the high draft pick and years of development their respective teams spent on them. Looking at the selections, I remain convinced that spending high picks on goalie prospects is generally a mistake.
- noename09

Props. What I've been saying for how long now......

Thats now 2 lists proving it true.

Then maybe you should learn how to ignore certain things.
- jbold

if you feel like you're in the place you're entitled to making that decision for others.. you're very confused.

100% agreed

I like Grabo... but not at 5.5 and not in the current state the leafs are.. we need more picks than 2nd liners right now.
- senstroll

Agreed.

Don't think I would of traded him tho. I wish he would of signed for less. Don't understand how his agent said he loves Toronto and wants to be in Toronto. But wouldn't take a discount.

if you feel like you're in the place you're entitled to making that decision for others.. you're very confused.
- joel878

Continue to be annoyed by my posts then. No sweat off my back.

where does your percentage go when you change the list to stanley cup winning goalies drafted in the first round?
- joel878

Ask Brodeur, Fleury and Ward.

By the way, that wasn't the argument. The argument is where do you find good goalies. Fact is, the 1st round is a decent option and most likely better than any other round in the draft.

This is simple stuff and shouldn't be a revelation to anybody. And yet it is. Big surprise.

Yeah definetely...I like it, its pretty hilarious. I do feel bad for some of the interviews though. Like Kessel and Gardiner have been 2 of our best players all year and are the future of the team even they were getting grilled. Luke Schenn looked (frank)in livid too. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up trading him this summer. He'll be a star d-man somewhere else in the end just like Leafs past
- t_leafs21

But even with Gardiner and Kessel...they know they weren't the problem this year.

Although the arguement could be had that Kessel only shows up for goals/games that don't matter. That he doesn't score the game changing goal nearly as much as he scores the 4-1 goal...whether you want his goal to be the 4th or the 1st in that score the example is the same.

As for Schenn....he's in the exact boat as Komisarek, the door is WIDE open for them and always has been, they just need to tighten it up. I'm not worried about Schenn at all, he's still young and SUPER young for his type of defensive style. People will be complaining about him for another 2 years before we start to see his development blossom.

At the deadline, if Gaustad was worth a 1st, then yes, MacArthur could have got one. Unfortunately, the deadline has passed. Nobody will give up a 1st for MacArthur until the next deadline. And that's if he holds his value and the market commands that price. Same goes for Grabovski but with his 5.5 million per year cap hit, nobody is going to take that at the draft.
- Unholy_Goalie

There are some in the media who have suggested the Burke is full of poop on the whole "could have had 4 first round picks". I know Pierre McGurie doesn't believe it (for what it's worth).

I do agree though; if ever Mac could get a first, it'd be at the deadline.

Anybody who signs Piano Man that badly doesn't deserve any sort of captaincy.
- Unholy_Goalie

Really...that's what does it for you? Love it!

Agreed.

Don't think I would of traded him tho. I wish he would of signed for less. Don't understand how his agent said he loves Toronto and wants to be in Toronto. But wouldn't take a discount.
- jbold

it is mind bottling isnt it

Ask Brodeur, Fleury and Ward.

By the way, that wasn't the argument. The argument is where do you find good goalies. Fact is, the 1st round is a decent option and most likely better than any other round in the draft.

This is simple stuff and shouldn't be a revelation to anybody. And yet it is. Big surprise.
- Unholy_Goalie

What's a "1st"?

Continue to be annoyed by my posts then. No sweat off my back.
- jbold

trust me, being annoyed by you will have less of an impact on me, than achieving that level of annoying will impact you.

Compare that to all the other rounds in the draft now. Nobody ever does that.
- Unholy_Goalie

Teams were more than twice as likely (45.7% vs. 22.5%) to draft a quality goalie in the 1st four rounds from 1985-1994 with 37% fewer picks than the 1995-2004 era. Why? Because teams typically waited longer to draft goalies meaning there was more quality available for teams willing to use a higher pick to acquire them. The surge seen in the 9th round from 1985-1994 will be explained later when European goaltenders are studied. Overall however, the success rate fell from 22.4% on average to just 16.7 prior to the lockout.

What rounds have typically produced both quantity and quality goaltending over the years? By breaking down the draft years by round, a clear pattern emerges that demonstrates how teams are drafting successful goalies earlier than ever before. In short, the deeper into the draft you go, the further back in time you go to find quality netminders.

Given that teams now typically draft less than one goalie per year and that the odds of selecting a quality netminder after the 3rd round has fallen to just 12.2% it's easy to understand why so many teams go several years, sometimes even a decade or longer before finding a quality goaltender. It also shows that the majority of teams still waiting until rounds 4, 5 and 6 need to re-think their draft strategy.




FEW EXAMPLES

Rd Year Team Name GP
2 2006 Washington Michal Neuvirth* 44
2 2005 Atlanta Ondrej Pavelec* 82
2 2003 Detroit Jim Howard* 96
2 2002 Minnesota Josh Harding* 83
2 2001 Colorado Peter Budaj* 214
2 2000 Anaheim Ilya Bryzgalov* 284
2 2000 Dallas Dan Ellis* 131
2 1999 Florida Alex Auld* 210
2 1996 Montreal Mathieu Garon* 254
2 1994 Montreal Jose Theodore* 559
2 1993 Florida Kevin Weekes 350
2 1992 Washington Jim Carey 172
2 1990 Toronto Felix Potvin 640
2 1989 Washington Byron Dafoe 415
2 1988 Colorado Stephane Fiset 390
2 1987 Pittsburgh Rick Tabaracci 287
2 1987 Los Angeles Mark Fitzpatrick 329
2 1987 NY Islanders Jeff Hackett 500
2 1985 New Jersey Sean Burke 820
2 1985 Carolina Kay Whitmore 155
2 1985 NY Rangers Mike Richter 666

Rd Year Team Name GP
3 2006 Columbus Steve Mason* 139
3 2005 Los Angeles Jonathan Quick* 141
3 2001 Chicago Craig Anderson* 195
3 2000 Toronto Mikael Tellqvist 114
3 1999 Calgary Craig Anderson* - Unsigned 195
3 1999 Pittsburgh Sebastien Caron 92
3 1998 NY Rangers Jason Labarbera* 130
3 1995 Pittsburgh Jean-Sebastien Aubin 218
3 1992 Colorado Manny Fernandez 325
3 1991 NY Islanders Jamie McLennan 254
3 1991 Detroit Chris Osgood* 739
3 1990 New Jersey Mike Dunham 394
3 1988 Phoenix Stephane Beauregard 90
3 1988 Philadelphia Dominic Roussel 205
3 1986 Washington Jim Hrivnak 85
3 1985 Boston Bill Ranford 647
3 1985 Phoenix Daniel Berthiaume 215

Rd Year Team Name GP
4 2001 Ottawa Ray Emery 163
4 1995 San Jose Vesa Toskala 266
4 1991 NY Islanders Milan Hnilicka 121
4 1986 Detroit Tim Cheveldae 340
4 1986 Colorado Ron Tugnutt 538

Rd Year Team Name GP
5 2001 Edmonton Jussi Markkanen 128
5 2001 Dallas Mike Smith* 156
5 1999 Buffalo Ryan Miller* 355
5 1998 Boston Andrew Raycroft* 260
5 1995 San Jose Miikka Kiprusoff* 485
5 1995 New Jersey Chris Mason* 268
5 1995 Colorado Brent Johnson* 281
5 1994 Dallas Marty Turco* 529
5 1993 Anaheim Mikhail Shtalenkov 224
5 1993 NY Islanders Tommy Salo 526
5 1991 Buffalo Steve Shields 246

Rd Year Team Name GP
6 2001 Atlanta Pasi Nurminen 125
6 2000 Philadelphia Roman Cechmanek 212
6 1999 Chicago Mike Leighton* 103
6 1998 Philadelphia Antero Niittymaki* 227
6 1997 Colorado David Aebischer 214
6 1996 Phoenix Robert Esche 186
6 1993 Pittsburgh Patrick Lalime* 442
6 1990 Dallas Roman Turek 328
6 1987 Toronto Damian Rhodes 309
6 1987 Colorado Garth Snow 368

Rd Year Team Name GP
7 2002 Tampa Bay Fredrik Norrena 100
7 2001 Los Angeles Cristobal Huet 272
7 2000 NY Rangers Henrik Lundqvist* 364
7 1997 NY Rangers Johan Holmqvist 98
7 1985 St. Louis Pat Jablonski 128

Rd Year Team Name GP
8 2004 Nashville Pekka Rinne* 132
8 2001 Anaheim Martin Gerber 226
8 1997 New Jersey Scott Clemmensen* 98
8 1993 Carolina Manny Legace 365
8 1991 NY Rangers Corey Hirsch 108
8 1987 St. Louis Guy Hebert 491

Rd Year Team Name GP
9 2003 Montreal Jaroslav Halak* 125
9 2003 Ottawa Brian Elliott* 109
9 1994 Colorado Tim Thomas* 283
9 1994 Philadelphia Johan Hedberg* 306
9 1994 San Jose Evgeni Nabokov 563
9 1994 Montreal Tomas Vokoun* 599
9 1994 Boston John Grahame 224
9 1992 Colorado Steve Passmore 93
9 1992 Phoenix Nikolai Khabibulin* 717
9 1988 Buffalo Wade Flaherty 120

Rd Year Team Name GP
10 1990 New Jersey Corey Schwab 147
10 1989 Dallas Arturs Irbe 568