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Forums :: Blog World :: Dee Karl: A Big Win & a Big Signing
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isles10289
Joined: 02.17.2009

Feb 8 @ 2:59 PM ET
why will a third rounder most likely become nothing??

patrick sharp, Tomas Plekanec, Gregory Campbell, Frans Nielsen, Clarke MacArthur, Brandon Prust, Alexander Edler, Johan Franzen, Kristopher Letang, Brad Marchand, Cal Clutterbuck, Adam Henrique were all picked in 3rd round...

some other notables:

Jonathan Ericsson (9th round, 291st overall in 2002)
Patric Hornqvist (7th round, 230th overall in 2005)
Shea Weber (2nd round, 49th overall in 2003)
Henrik Lundqvist (7th round, 205th overall in 2000)
Martin Gerber (232nd overall in 2001)
Henrik Zetterberg (210th overall in 1999)
Tomas Kaberle (204th overall in 1996)
Tomas Vokoun (9th round, 225th overall in 1994)

Mark Streit (9th round, 262nd overall in 2004)
Travis Hamonic (2nd round, 53rd overall in 2008)
EVGENI NABAKOV (9th round, 219th overall in 1994)

- LetsGoIsles


So you listed 11 players after those first third rounders among hundreds and hundreds of drafted players lol
LetsGoIsles
New York Islanders
Location: I'll wait till Halak signs elsewhere and then you can go eat a d!ck- JMO16
Joined: 01.26.2011

Feb 8 @ 3:07 PM ET
So you listed 11 players after those first third rounders among hundreds and hundreds of drafted players lol
- isles10289



23 players.


ill guarantee that the chance of a 3rd round pick developing into a legitimate NHL player is EXTREMELY higher than not having a pick develop into a legitimate NHL player. agree?
niteislander
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 01.13.2010

Feb 8 @ 3:09 PM ET
Difference between Reyes and Nabokov: the Islanders will get a third rounder who will most likely become nothing for Nabokov, while the Mets could have had 2 or 3 top prospects for Reyes.
- isles10289


He keeps playing like he has been of late and they will get a lot better than 3rd rounder.
niteislander
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 01.13.2010

Feb 8 @ 3:12 PM ET
Difference between Reyes and Nabokov: the Islanders will get a third rounder who will most likely become nothing for Nabokov, while the Mets could have had 2 or 3 top prospects for Reyes.
- isles10289


I would bet u can get a second round pick for PA and Nabby.. .I then would bet u can trade 3 second round picks to move into late first round. In a draft with a ton of good defensive prospects.
isles10289
Joined: 02.17.2009

Feb 8 @ 3:32 PM ET
23 players.


ill guarantee that the chance of a 3rd round pick developing into a legitimate NHL player is EXTREMELY higher than not having a pick develop into a legitimate NHL player. agree?

- LetsGoIsles


http://proicehockey.about...pects/f/draft_success.htm

This says third round and beyond ~ 12% chance of playing one NHL game. Not great odds. I'd rather go for a strong finish this season.
eichiefs9
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 11.03.2008

Feb 8 @ 3:33 PM ET
Yeah, some people are just never going to be satisfied. 4 years, $11M is perfect.
- isles10289

4 years $11M is a bargain for him, he absolutely would have been offered more on the open market if he hit UFA status.
isles10289
Joined: 02.17.2009

Feb 8 @ 3:34 PM ET
I would bet u can get a second round pick for PA and Nabby.. .I then would bet u can trade 3 second round picks to move into late first round. In a draft with a ton of good defensive prospects.
- niteislander


Prospects are always overrated. I would not trade PA, Nabokov, and our second rounder for a late first rounder.
isles10289
Joined: 02.17.2009

Feb 8 @ 3:35 PM ET
He keeps playing like he has been of late and they will get a lot better than 3rd rounder.
- niteislander


Not historically speaking. He's 37 years old and a UFA at the end of the year. Plus, there aren't so many contenders that need starting goaltenders (because let's face it, teams with bad starting goaltenders are not contenders). That means the teams would be interested in him as an insurance policy/backup, and no one is giving more than a third rounder for a backup.
eichiefs9
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 11.03.2008

Feb 8 @ 3:50 PM ET
Prospects are always overrated. I would not trade PA, Nabokov, and our second rounder for a late first rounder.
- isles10289

http://www.fannation.com/...hostile-to-trade-deadline

I don't think PA is going anywhere, nor do I think he should right now. And as long as this team is still in some kind of chase for the playoffs, there's no chance Snow is going to move Nabokov. Unless this team takes a massive dump over the next 19 days, the thought is going to be that we have a shot to make the playoffs and they're going to ride the hot hand in goal. Fact is were 10 pts back from 8th place Ottawa with 4 games in hand. Do I have utter confidence were going to make it? No, but it's certainly not impossible.
kear20
New York Islanders
Joined: 07.03.2007

Feb 8 @ 4:01 PM ET
dont get me wrong....im a HUGE supporter of the top line as anyone hear knows i was extra vocal (prob comes as no surprise) with dropping PA down and bringing KO up...i love the top line....having said that, moves have to be made moving forward in order to get MORE production.

JT, ko, MM, MG, FN, PA, MM, NN......the question still remains, where do you expect to be with the EXACT team?

the only way i can conceivably imagine its the same guys as mentioned is if they sign TWO top line defenseman....i still think they need more grit and physicality at forward though....id kiss pap and grabner goodbye, see what they get you and get a big talent body in here via trade or FA

- LetsGoIsles


Forget FA...will have to be via trade...
HardPuck
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Jumping off the bridge contrac
Joined: 08.04.2010

Feb 8 @ 4:14 PM ET
Do you guys feel that Montoya's latest injury is delaying a new contract for him?
eichiefs9
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 11.03.2008

Feb 8 @ 4:17 PM ET
Do you guys feel that Montoya's latest injury is delaying a new contract for him?
- HardPuck

I doubt it. He should be 100%, he's just not playing because Nabokov has been pretty damn good as of late. No one that covers the team has mentioned a single thing regarding the Isles and Montoya working (or not working) on a new contract, so take that for what you will.
Isles316
New York Islanders
Location: Long Island , NY
Joined: 01.15.2008

Feb 8 @ 4:22 PM ET
Do you guys feel that Montoya's latest injury is delaying a new contract for him?
- HardPuck


I don't think isles management serious confidence in him. They also have three good goalie prospects and probably Kevin Poulin will be ready for the.nhl next year. Maybe also trying to wait out nabby situation
Jethro09
New York Islanders
Location: NJ
Joined: 08.16.2007

Feb 8 @ 4:25 PM ET
Or you could put JT and Parise together and make one of the best duos in the NHL.
- isles10289

Or you can forget about Parise all together. He's not signing on Long Island. Not now. He'll be one of the most sought after UFA's in years. He's going to get offers from contenders. the Isles won't be able to offer Parise what other teams likely interested in him will be.
eichiefs9
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 11.03.2008

Feb 8 @ 4:28 PM ET
Or you can forget about Parise all together. He's not signing on Long Island. Not now. He'll be one of the most sought after UFA's in years. He's going to get offers from contenders. the Isles won't be able to offer Parise what other teams likely interested in him will be.
- Jethro09

I'd like to never hear the names Parise and Suter on this board again. Neither will sign here.
jimmc7722
New York Islanders
Location: TAVARES IS AN ASS!!!!, ON
Joined: 02.06.2008

Feb 8 @ 4:32 PM ET
Or you can forget about Parise all together. He's not signing on Long Island. Not now. He'll be one of the most sought after UFA's in years. He's going to get offers from contenders. the Isles won't be able to offer Parise what other teams likely interested in him will be.
- Jethro09



They can offer him more money, and a chance to play with a great team with a great future?

Is that enough?
Jethro09
New York Islanders
Location: NJ
Joined: 08.16.2007

Feb 8 @ 4:32 PM ET
why will a third rounder most likely become nothing??

patrick sharp, Tomas Plekanec, Gregory Campbell, Frans Nielsen, Clarke MacArthur, Brandon Prust, Alexander Edler, Johan Franzen, Kristopher Letang, Brad Marchand, Cal Clutterbuck, Adam Henrique were all picked in 3rd round...

some other notables:

Jonathan Ericsson (9th round, 291st overall in 2002)
Patric Hornqvist (7th round, 230th overall in 2005)
Shea Weber (2nd round, 49th overall in 2003)
Henrik Lundqvist (7th round, 205th overall in 2000)
Martin Gerber (232nd overall in 2001)
Henrik Zetterberg (210th overall in 1999)
Tomas Kaberle (204th overall in 1996)
Tomas Vokoun (9th round, 225th overall in 1994)

Mark Streit (9th round, 262nd overall in 2004)
Travis Hamonic (2nd round, 53rd overall in 2008)
EVGENI NABAKOV (9th round, 219th overall in 1994)

- LetsGoIsles

to be fair, this list contains 23 names coming from 18 drafts. Yes, good players are selected in all rounds, including late ones. But the probability that a guy picked in a mid to late round making it and being a contributor is not high. The draft is a crap shoot.
BringBackBalky
New York Islanders
Location: Island Park, NY
Joined: 06.23.2009

Feb 8 @ 4:32 PM ET
I'd like to never hear the names Parise and Suter on this board again. Neither will sign here.
- eichiefs9


I'm saving this post just in case.............

As MacGruber would say............Never Ever Say Never Ever
eichiefs9
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 11.03.2008

Feb 8 @ 4:35 PM ET
I'm saving this post just in case.............

As MacGruber would say............Never Ever Say Never Ever

- BringBackBalky



I know we can offer more money than most, if not all other teams. I'll be the first one to admit I was totally wrong if by some miracle either do end up here, but going by our history of attracting (or lack there-of) even mid-level free agents, I have a hard time thinking that either will want to be here.
LetsGoIsles
New York Islanders
Location: I'll wait till Halak signs elsewhere and then you can go eat a d!ck- JMO16
Joined: 01.26.2011

Feb 8 @ 4:39 PM ET
to be fair, this list contains 23 names coming from 18 drafts. Yes, good players are selected in all rounds, including late ones. But the probability that a guy picked in a mid to late round making it and being a contributor is not high. The draft is a crap shoot.
- Jethro09



true...i didnt go through all the names obviously....and as point out only about a 12% chance of third round and on....or something like that....

my point was there is a much higher chance of getting a quality player in third round than getting a quality player with no pick....
Jethro09
New York Islanders
Location: NJ
Joined: 08.16.2007

Feb 8 @ 4:40 PM ET
They can offer him more money, and a chance to play with a great team with a great future?

Is that enough?

- jimmc7722

No, they can't offer him more money. First, yes, they have the cap space to offer a boatload. But they have an owner who doesn't have the revenue stream to make a huge offer to anyone. So the space is there, but the cash isn't. Second, I think that the Isles are going to be real hesitant to offer a UFA forward more $$ than JT makes.

As far as the "great team" comment goes, hey, I'm a fan too. I love this team to death. But look at this team an organization objectively. "Great teams" don't finish in the bottom five of the league every year. "Great teams" don't miss the playoffs six out of seven seasons. And "great future"? Where exactly is that "great future" going to take place? Because right now, they don't have an arena deal in place after 2014-15 and there is no construction commencing on a new arena for them.

If you look at the Isles' situation objectively and you compare it to the rest of the league, I don't see how a 40-goal scorer, elite player would pass up playing on a contender to sign with the Isles.
jimmc7722
New York Islanders
Location: TAVARES IS AN ASS!!!!, ON
Joined: 02.06.2008

Feb 8 @ 4:40 PM ET
true...i didnt go through all the names obviously....and as point out only about a 12% chance of third round and on....or something like that....

my point was there is a much higher chance of getting a quality player in third round than getting a quality player with no pick....

- LetsGoIsles



You're a smart guy...
Jethro09
New York Islanders
Location: NJ
Joined: 08.16.2007

Feb 8 @ 4:45 PM ET
true...i didnt go through all the names obviously....and as point out only about a 12% chance of third round and on....or something like that....

my point was there is a much higher chance of getting a quality player in third round than getting a quality player with no pick....

- LetsGoIsles

That's true and undisputable. But what would be better for the Isles organization and team? To have a firesale and trade away PAP and Nabokov and whoever else for mid-level prospects (Wisharts) or mid-round picks just because its what they do every February, or would it be better to keep this group together, show some confidence in them and let them try to make the playoffs and see what mettle this team has? I think the team is at a point where if they're in striking distance of a playoff spot come 2/27, they need to go for it and try to make the playoffs. The experience of playing in a playoff race for the kids on the team would be invaluable and I want to know if this group can handle the pressure of being in a playoff chase.
niteislander
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 01.13.2010

Feb 8 @ 4:47 PM ET
Not historically speaking. He's 37 years old and a UFA at the end of the year. Plus, there aren't so many contenders that need starting goaltenders (because let's face it, teams with bad starting goaltenders are not contenders). That means the teams would be interested in him as an insurance policy/backup, and no one is giving more than a third rounder for a backup.
- isles10289

I would strongly argue this point. If Nabby is moved he will go to a team that is desperate for a starting goaltender (Tampa, Chicago, etc.). The islanders have one thing going for them.. they guy they traded last year was a very big difference for Tampa in their playoff run. Then can easily refer to that trade. It is easily worth higher than second rounder. That said I really think he will sign an extension as will PA in the next coming weeks.
jimmc7722
New York Islanders
Location: TAVARES IS AN ASS!!!!, ON
Joined: 02.06.2008

Feb 8 @ 4:48 PM ET
No, they can't offer him more money. First, yes, they have the cap space to offer a boatload. But they have an owner who doesn't have the revenue stream to make a huge offer to anyone. So the space is there, but the cash isn't. Second, I think that the Isles are going to be real hesitant to offer a UFA forward more $$ than JT makes.

As far as the "great team" comment goes, hey, I'm a fan too. I love this team to death. But look at this team an organization objectively. "Great teams" don't finish in the bottom five of the league every year. "Great teams" don't miss the playoffs six out of seven seasons. And "great future"? Where exactly is that "great future" going to take place? Because right now, they don't have an arena deal in place after 2014-15 and there is no construction commencing on a new arena for them.

If you look at the Isles' situation objectively and you compare it to the rest of the league, I don't see how a 40-goal scorer, elite player would pass up playing on a contender to sign with the Isles.

- Jethro09



The rebuild is just finishing up... it's time to add some quality players.

They have enough youth to last for the next 5 years...

Garth keeps telling us Wang is not holding him back... well it's time to prove it.

As to playing for this team as compared to other teams... I think we are a couple of players away to being a great team.

The arena thing will works its way out... Queens, Brookyln, or staying right where they are.

I see the cup as half full... you see it as being spilled on the floor...

We don't know what Parise is thinking. Maybe he likes the guys on the team... maybe he wants to play with Tavares.

Maybe he wants to play in Toronto...lol... just kidding. Nobody wants to play there!!!
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