I think Willy is burnt out.

He blew his load playing for that contract.

Also he was playing more physical for a stretch of ten games or so, I wonder if he aggregated something, or if that hit he took vs Ottawa rattled him.

I just don’t want this to a conversation we need to keep having about him. So hopefully he wakes up soon.
- Arctic_AARDVARK

They should sit him after the Detroit game and play the scrubs for the last 2 games. Maybe a Marlie or two should get a look.

I don't have a link or anything, but I remember last year the talking heads repeatedly said that in recent years, home ice advantage has meant less and less in the NHL.
- Atomic Wedgie

Here's what I found ...30-27 for the home team since 2010 (as of April 23rd last year) ...so my game 7 theory holds no water. Lets rest and get ready to rumble.

As mentioned in the introduction, many people will often place home-ice advantage for game 7. Something that might have been true prior but isn’t quite as true any longer. Excluding the 2021 Northern Division series between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens, there have been 57 series that have gone to game 7 since 2010. 30 of them have ended in a home win, with 27 going to the road team. Making the home ice have a tiny advantage in game 7’s with 52.6% of the wins.

A minuscule amount and in total the home ice time only gets a 5.2% advantage. This however is an advantage for the home team, and in a game often decided by inches, it’s something every coach, player, and fan will take. Even if it’s far from as much as some make it out to be.

They should sit him after the Detroit game and play the scrubs for the last 2 games. Maybe a Marlie or two should get a look.
- PrinceLH

I was thinking that,

But also it might hurt his feelings because he’s obviously going for 100 pts.

Nylander he 2pts in his last 8 games and not a peep from any of you..

Except “yEa bUt mArNeRrr dErPy dErP dErP”




The concern here is consistency.

He's been consistently good all year, the points will come as they always do. Watch the games.

Now look at how it has been over the past two months.
- Atomic Wedgie

I get that it’s kind of been in the crapper recently…

I would be shocked if it stayed that way into the first round… these guys know they’ve got to ramp it up..

Same with the PK…

Now can they.. Against battle hardened, Highly motivated competition, That’s definitely open for debate…

I think Willy is burnt out.

He blew his load playing for that contract.

Also he was playing more physical for a stretch of ten games or so, I wonder if he aggregated something, or if that hit he took vs Ottawa rattled him.

I just don’t want this to a conversation we need to keep having about him. So hopefully he wakes up soon.
- Arctic_AARDVARK

1.22 p/gp vs Marner at 1.23. You love having this conversation

They should sit him after the Detroit game and play the scrubs for the last 2 games. Maybe a Marlie or two should get a look.
- PrinceLH

There’s no reason to play any Marlies when the last roster positions are up for grabs and guys who might not start the playoffs get a game to stay game readers

They are saying it's going to get redonkalabonkulously windy late this afternoon.

Maybe it helps Weir make the cut?
- Atomic Wedgie

I love it. Hopefully it gets douchambeau and his goofy canadian inspired swing off his game.

He's been consistently good all year, the points will come as they always do. Watch the games.
- Zezel

I'm going to defend the Aardvark on this one ...I don't think he's wrong in saying Willie has some streakiness to his play. He goes through a few lethargic stretches every year where he looks like a passenger but he also goes through some stretches of total domination.

And ya most athletes do but he's got a touch more of that streakiness in him ...lots of other superstars do though.

And Willie seems to always turn the dial up for the playoffs. It'll happen.

https://www.covers.com/sp.../team-powerplay/2023-2024

Here's the current list.

Boston, LA, Vegas, Winnipeg, Washington all have had core guys for awhile and have a worse powerplay. Can you just admit you hate the leafs?
- Aaron_85

The concern I have right _now_ is that since March 1st the Leafs are 31st out of 32. Only Montreal's is worse. That was the point he's glomming on to - but it's a valid concern.

Whatever crap Boucher has been tweaking or doing is not working and they need to revert it back - or teams are onto his system, which wouldn't surprise me since he wasn't a coach in the NHL for a reason. Then again - and I've said this before - I hate Boucher and Van Ryn; I still don't understand how the Leafs - with all the money in the world - settled on these guys. But really that's not the point I was making. Just look at the last quarter season (basically March 1st - end of season, but I adjusted forward a bit in 2022 due to the uneven schedule having 30 games in the last two months) . . .

In the last 20 games as we head into the playoffs our special teams are a massive concern. The PP is 31st @ 10% and the PK is 24th at 75%. they are still 12-7-1 (.625) over this stretch.

Last year as we entered the playoffs over the last 22 games, our PP was 5th in the league @ 28.1% and our PK was 10th @ 82.9%. They were 13-6-3 (.659)

The year prior, as we entered the playoffs, our special teams were similarly sliding - the PP was 11th @ 22.5% and our PK was 29th at 74.6% - but they were 15-4-2 (.762).

It's not a reason to panic because they have shown they can be better - Vegas wasn't particularly good in special teams leading up the playoffs last year - and remained rather mediocre throughout the playoffs and still won. But I would emphasize that the Leafs _current_ special teams performance is so poor that it's typically not even a playoff team's special teams output.

I know I'm droning on here, but there's a calculation they like to do which is PP% + PK% and if it's over 105, you're okay. If it's over 110 you're exceptional.

The Leafs are, at present, 85 - only one team last season had lower than that - Anaheim. On the balance of the season, by the way, the Leafs are 100.8. Last year 107.9, the year prior 109.4. The COVID shortened season they were 98.5.

So this very, very long post says that I have misgivings and that's why.

1.22 p/gp vs Marner at 1.23. You love having this conversation
- Canada Cup

You claim to be smarter than everyone..

Did you really think we wouldn’t notice that you’re using the entire season when the post was about recent play?

Why even attempt this?

Stay on point.

I'm going to defend the Aardvark on this one ...I don't think he's wrong in saying Willie has some streakiness to his play. He goes through a few lethargic stretches every year where he looks like a passenger but he also goes through some stretches of total domination.

And ya most athletes do but he's got a touch more of that streakiness in him ...lots of other superstars do though.

And Willie seems to always turn the dial up for the playoffs. It'll happen.
- The Law

I have a brand new fishing lure that says different. 😁

I was thinking that,

But also it might hurt his feelings because he’s obviously going for 100 pts.
- Arctic_AARDVARK

I have to agree with you. If people here don't think Willie has been playing a lazy brand of hockey over the past 10 games, they need to watch closer. If Willie doesn't have the puck, he is out for a skate. Crash the boards or even toss a body check, forget it. Also, tons of giveaways.

Jim Matheson
@jimmathesonnhl
Auston Matthews scores ton because he's accurate but he's also volume shooter. He's attempted 651 shots at the net in his 78 Leafs' games which is over eight a night. 342 on net.

not sure what point is being made here. but ...ok

I have to agree with you. If people here don't think Willie has been playing a lazy brand of hockey over the past 10 games, they need to watch closer. If Willie doesn't have the puck, he is out for a skate. Crash the boards or even toss a body check, forget it. Also, tons of giveaways.
- Ear Hole

He has 3 giveaways in his last 10 games.

not sure what point is being made here. but ...ok
- senstroll

He scores alot of goals because he's good at shooting and shoots alot.

It's a genius analysis really.

not sure what point is being made here. but ...ok
- senstroll

Ya that reads like a guy that is trying too hard to be smart.

Matthew's best season in shots per season ranks 78th in the NHL (since 1959). Without looking it up his shooting % probably ranks higher than some/most of the guys above him.

He's clinical.

Penguins have a worse PP and they've been together for like 20 years

- Aaron_85

3 players have been together for a long time and their pp wasnt always this bad.

https://www.covers.com/sp.../team-powerplay/2023-2024

Here's the current list.

Boston, LA, Vegas, Winnipeg, Washington all have had core guys for awhile and have a worse powerplay. Can you just admit you hate the leafs?
- Aaron_85

Why does he need to hate the leafs to have pointed out their pp doesnt work? Or he feels it doesnt work.

I mean he may.....
Also if the leafs pp is 8th overall for the year....not bad at all.

Think the team took a night off last night, so a big meh but...

Brodie is DONE and Keefe's usage of him is typically stupid Queef. Bench his ass. Leafs have 10 D men, use the good ones Keefe!!!

Sammy had a bad game. Hope it's just one.

Marner needs to work on turnovers.

Willy needs to find his drive again.

Matthews is the (frank)ing man!!!

JT is waking up at the right time.


And Drexel, you keep calling me out on JT every time he does something good. Which has been about 4 time now so I will address it by saying this...

John Tavares, 62 points, good F/O % and costs $11M this year and next. Not sure your zingers are actually zinging homie.

JT's deal was and is shiite. He is 4th in the league in Cap hit, 32nd in points, 9th FO%.

You know who's below him for Cap Hit but all with better stats?

Barkov
Eichel
Point
Drysaddle
Aho
and JT (frank)ing Miller.

To name only a few.


If you're going to bust balls pick a better bust on a different set of balls.

Had to look it up ...

70 goal seasons

Espo 70-71 ...550 shots
Gretz 81-85 ....378, 340, 326, 354 shots
Kurri 84/85 ...254
Mario 87-89 ....382, 313
Nichols 88/89 ....385
Hull 89/92 ...385, 389, 405
Mogilny 92/93 ....360
Selanne 92/93 ...387

Matty has taken 341 so far. So no real difference.

Esposito was the only real outlier ....shoot 7+ times per game

Nylander he 2pts in his last 8 games and not a peep from any of you..

Except “yEa bUt mArNeRrr dErPy dErP dErP”




The concern here is consistency.

Meh, willy is having the best year of his career, yes it was contract year. But it still really good.
Can he repeat?
We'll see.

Think the team took a night off last night, so a big meh but...

Brodie is DONE and Keefe's usage of him is typically stupid Queef. Bench his ass. Leafs have 10 D men, use the good ones Keefe!!!

Sammy had a bad game. Hope it's just one.

Marner needs to work on turnovers.

Willy needs to find his drive again.

Matthews is the (frank)ing man!!!

JT is waking up at the right time.


And Drexel, you keep calling me out on JT every time he does something good. Which has been about 4 time now so I will address it by saying this...

John Tavares, 62 points, good F/O % and costs $11M this year and next. Not sure your zingers are actually zinging homie.

JT's deal was and is shiite. He is 4th in the league in Cap hit, 32nd in points, 9th FO%.

You know who's below him for Cap Hit but all with better stats?

Barkov
Eichel
Point
Drysaddle
Aho
and JT (frank)ing Miller.

To name only a few.


If you're going to bust balls pick a better bust on a different set of balls.
- underhill14

Jt has played well with marner, which isnt surprising.
JT's contract was fine the first 5 years, he earmed his money but we all knew the last two would be an issue. Well he we are, in the expected place, except of course we all thought this team would have had success by now, so it wouldnt matter.

Oh and how old are all the players you mentioned above compared to JT?

I notice Willy has been consistently plus or even in the last ten games too. Funny innit.

You claim to be smarter than everyone..

Did you really think we wouldn’t notice that you’re using the entire season when the post was about recent play?

Why even attempt this?

Stay on point.
- Arctic_AARDVARK

Smarter than everyone? Nope.

Has his point production dropped? Yep.

Even players you don’t obsess over go through ups and downs and Nylander is in a down period right now. Even with this slump he’s on the same point production for the year as Marner.