I find myself just cheering for Matthews to score and the team to hit and get into scrums right now, nothing more

So what's changed? It's clearly come at 5v5 play. Digging into it

Love the work Monk, but it could just be summarized as "Samsonov isn't Toskala."
- AdamFrench

plus injuries forcing Keefe to make up different lines.

I find myself just cheering for Matthews to score and the team to hit and get into scrums right now, nothing more
- Santo_44

Just cheering for good chemistry and no injuries.

So what's changed? It's clearly come at 5v5 play. Digging into it

Love the work Monk, but it could just be summarized as "Samsonov isn't Toskala."
- AdamFrench

Certainly since he returned from his mental hiatus, he has come back and had the 6th best GSAx in the league (Andersen, Stolarz, Binnington, Luukonen and Tarasov are the surprising names ahead of him over this period).

Trusting your goalie changes everything about a team - they can be more aggressive offensively, take chances and push the pace. It would be nice to see them learn to play better in their own zone so they could protect a lead, but I guess that's a bridge they'll burn until another day.

I don't think that this is all on Sammy, though. I think he's been excellent, for the record. Any talk of Woll being the playoff starter is crazy talk. Ride the hot hand. But this team is hitting a lot more and I also note that the hits aren't just those light optical bumps that get counted as hits, but we all get hit harder walking through the mall by someone looking at their phone - and everyone just carries on with a mumbled apology. I think he Leafs have been more purposeful and frequent in their hits and more willing to trade them to make plays and I think that's what's also showing up on the scoreboard.

Certainly since he returned from his mental hiatus, he has come back and had the 6th best GSAx in the league (Andersen, Stolarz, Binnington, Luukonen and Tarasov are the surprising names ahead of him over this period).

Trusting your goalie changes everything about a team - they can be more aggressive offensively, take chances and push the pace. It would be nice to see them learn to play better in their own zone so they could protect a lead, but I guess that's a bridge they'll burn until another day.

I don't think that this is all on Sammy, though. I think he's been excellent, for the record. Any talk of Woll being the playoff starter is crazy talk. Ride the hot hand. But this team is hitting a lot more and I also note that the hits aren't just those light optical bumps that get counted as hits, but we all get hit harder walking through the mall by someone looking at their phone - and everyone just carries on with a mumbled apology. I think he Leafs have been more purposeful and frequent in their hits and more willing to trade them to make plays and I think that's what's also showing up on the scoreboard.
- Monkeypunk

I have the most and least confidence in this Leaf team.

With the way they play it just feels like they may have "something"

If they come out of the gates flying and win a round I will believe. They will make the finals.

I could live with that, hope to see Sid push the Pens into the playoffs
- Symba007

I need Sid with some goals for fantasy hockey finals!

Anyone watching this movie today?

Anyone watching this movie today?


- Atomic Wedgie

I am now

It's probably about the same time, but you had previously posted that the Leafs were 18-7-1 since Rielly stood up for the pride of the team. It doesn't matter if it was an over the top reaction or whether the goal deserved that type of retaliation - what does matter is that in team sports you can find moments that the players galvanize over - and I think Rielly did that for this team.

Since the incident, the top-8 teams in the league:

NYR: 19-5-1
Car: 19-6-2
Nas: 18-6-2
Tor: 18-7-1
Dal: 17-6-3
Col: 16-7-2
Edm: 17-7-4
TBL: 15-7-2

The Leafs, at the time of the hit, were 26-16-8 - or .600 hockey. Since the hit on Greig they've been at .712. Their powerplay was clicking at 26.6% and the PK was below average at 78.2%. Since the hit on Greig the powerplay has actually decreased significantly to 20% and the penalty kill has gotten worse - 76.4%.

But since the incident, the Leafs are #1 in league scoring (3.96) and are 12th in Goals Against (2.85). This is an improvement from #5 (3.44) and #22 (3.22), respectively.

So what's changed? It's clearly come at 5v5 play. Digging into it . . .

Hits/60 sure has. Here are the changes in hits/60 by Leaf players since the Grieg incident, the number in brackets shows what it was:

Ryan Reaves: 7.76 (17.96)
Noah Gregor: 6.72 (11.14)
Mark Giordano: 5.69 (3.67)
Simon Benoit: 4.75 (10.75)
John Tavares: 4.6 (4.48)
Calle Jarnkrok: 4.34 (3.51)
Jake McCabe: 4.23 (6.7)
Conor Timmins: 3.88 (4.42)
Matthew Knies: 3.02 (7.65)
Morgan Rielly: 2.65 (2.52)
Pontus Holmberg: 2.34 (3.25)
Tyler Bertuzzi: 2.02 (4.12)
Timothy Liljegren: 1.97 (3.66)
Bobby McMann: 1.91 (9.73)
Auston Matthews: 1.8 (3.21)
David Kampf: 1.54 (4.49)
Nicholas Robertson: 0.94 (2.9)
Mitchell Marner: 0.71 (2.45)
TJ Brodie: 0.04 (1.47)
William Nylander: -0.28 (1.31)
Max Domi: -0.8 (3.25)

New guys who weren't here at the time:

Ilya Lyubushkin: 13.12
Connor Dewar: 9.7
Joel Edmundson: 5.31

In fact the other noticeable thing is that the team has been more willing to take hits as well. The only player on the team who has taken fewer hits (-0.31 variation) since that incident is Auston Matthews.

As a team most of their overall individual play has remained consistent, but overall has been better:

Individual expected goals/60: 0.07
Individual Scoring Chances/60: 0.28
Individual HD Chances/60: 0.29
Rush Attempts/60: -0.1
Rebounds Created/60: 0.2
Giveaways/60: 0.43
Takeaways/60: 0.13
Hits/60: 3.67
Hits Taken/60: 3.51
Shots Blocked/60: 0.4

They may be rushing the puck a little less, but you can see the incremental improvements above, but there's a very significant commitment being made to the physical side of the game - hitting more and taking more hits.

Is there a shift happening that will pay dividends? We'll see, but this is a surprisingly good thing to see from a team that most don't expect it from.
- Monkeypunk

So you're saying I should bet on Ottawa for the rest of the year?

It's probably about the same time, but you had previously posted that the Leafs were 18-7-1 since Rielly stood up for the pride of the team. It doesn't matter if it was an over the top reaction or whether the goal deserved that type of retaliation - what does matter is that in team sports you can find moments that the players galvanize over - and I think Rielly did that for this team.

Since the incident, the top-8 teams in the league:

NYR: 19-5-1
Car: 19-6-2
Nas: 18-6-2
Tor: 18-7-1
Dal: 17-6-3
Col: 16-7-2
Edm: 17-7-4
TBL: 15-7-2

The Leafs, at the time of the hit, were 26-16-8 - or .600 hockey. Since the hit on Greig they've been at .712. Their powerplay was clicking at 26.6% and the PK was below average at 78.2%. Since the hit on Greig the powerplay has actually decreased significantly to 20% and the penalty kill has gotten worse - 76.4%.

But since the incident, the Leafs are #1 in league scoring (3.96) and are 12th in Goals Against (2.85). This is an improvement from #5 (3.44) and #22 (3.22), respectively.

So what's changed? It's clearly come at 5v5 play. Digging into it . . .

Hits/60 sure has. Here are the changes in hits/60 by Leaf players since the Grieg incident, the number in brackets shows what it was:

Ryan Reaves: 7.76 (17.96)
Noah Gregor: 6.72 (11.14)
Mark Giordano: 5.69 (3.67)
Simon Benoit: 4.75 (10.75)
John Tavares: 4.6 (4.48)
Calle Jarnkrok: 4.34 (3.51)
Jake McCabe: 4.23 (6.7)
Conor Timmins: 3.88 (4.42)
Matthew Knies: 3.02 (7.65)
Morgan Rielly: 2.65 (2.52)
Pontus Holmberg: 2.34 (3.25)
Tyler Bertuzzi: 2.02 (4.12)
Timothy Liljegren: 1.97 (3.66)
Bobby McMann: 1.91 (9.73)
Auston Matthews: 1.8 (3.21)
David Kampf: 1.54 (4.49)
Nicholas Robertson: 0.94 (2.9)
Mitchell Marner: 0.71 (2.45)
TJ Brodie: 0.04 (1.47)
William Nylander: -0.28 (1.31)
Max Domi: -0.8 (3.25)

New guys who weren't here at the time:

Ilya Lyubushkin: 13.12
Connor Dewar: 9.7
Joel Edmundson: 5.31

In fact the other noticeable thing is that the team has been more willing to take hits as well. The only player on the team who has taken fewer hits (-0.31 variation) since that incident is Auston Matthews.

As a team most of their overall individual play has remained consistent, but overall has been better:

Individual expected goals/60: 0.07
Individual Scoring Chances/60: 0.28
Individual HD Chances/60: 0.29
Rush Attempts/60: -0.1
Rebounds Created/60: 0.2
Giveaways/60: 0.43
Takeaways/60: 0.13
Hits/60: 3.67
Hits Taken/60: 3.51
Shots Blocked/60: 0.4

They may be rushing the puck a little less, but you can see the incremental improvements above, but there's a very significant commitment being made to the physical side of the game - hitting more and taking more hits.

Is there a shift happening that will pay dividends? We'll see, but this is a surprisingly good thing to see from a team that most don't expect it from.
- Monkeypunk

Interessant! I hope the style of play continues together with special teams turning it around.

For me it is hard to get a handle on this group.. They are often going up by a big lead early then allowing the other team to creep back..Not sure if this is just that they get the lead and then relax and take the foot off the gas or that they have trouble holding the lead.. I am hoping it is the former and I am hoping that playoff intensity prevents it in the playoffs.

I like Brady Tkachuk, but isn't this his like...15th game ending brawl in the past 4 years? Seems to happen once a year round this time.
- AdamFrench

He might want to consider trying to win hockey games instead of filling his diaper every three weeks.

OK, Lawsie requested it, so here's the initial numbers for a trip to watch the Boyz play in Sunrise:

Assuming the playoffs start on the Saturday, but we have no way of know whether the Leafs will play Sat or Sun, we would fly in early Saturday morning on Flair airlines, leaving Toronto 6:30 am, arriving 9:50 am.

Staying at the Cambria Hotel Fort Lauderdale Beach, which gets an 8.6/10 rating on Travelocity, and it's right on the ocean.

Flight back home Monday morning leaves Fort Lauderdale at 10:35 am, arrives in Toronto 1:55 pm.

Total is $695 per person, based upon double occupancy.

Uber looks to be $40 to the arena.

My wild guess is $300 for a ticket in the nosebleeds - maybe our Panthers guests here on the forum can say if that seems accurate or not.

Add in transportation to and from airport (both cities) and you are probably looking at roughly $1,200 per person, not counting food and drinks.

Not quite as cheap as I was hoping.

OK, Lawsie requested it, so here's the initial numbers for a trip to watch the Boyz play in Sunrise:

Assuming the playoffs start on the Saturday, but we have no way of know whether the Leafs will play Sat or Sun, we would fly in early Saturday morning on Flair airlines, .
- Atomic Wedgie

via GIPHY

via GIPHY

- senstroll

Sadly, no other options for early morning flight that doesn't break the bank.

I've never heard of them, but how bad could it be?

OK, Lawsie requested it, so here's the initial numbers for a trip to watch the Boyz play in Sunrise:

Assuming the playoffs start on the Saturday, but we have no way of know whether the Leafs will play Sat or Sun, we would fly in early Saturday morning on Flair airlines, leaving Toronto 6:30 am, arriving 9:50 am.

Staying at the Cambria Hotel Fort Lauderdale Beach, which gets an 8.6/10 rating on Travelocity, and it's right on the ocean.

Flight back home Monday morning leaves Fort Lauderdale at 10:35 am, arrives in Toronto 1:55 pm.

Total is $695 per person, based upon double occupancy.

Uber looks to be $40 to the arena.

My wild guess is $300 for a ticket in the nosebleeds - maybe our Panthers guests here on the forum can say if that seems accurate or not.

Add in transportation to and from airport (both cities) and you are probably looking at roughly $1,200 per person, not counting food and drinks.

Not quite as cheap as I was hoping.
- Atomic Wedgie

$300 is really high. For season ticket holders those seats are about $30 USD.

One dude was saying he's in the lower bowl, 12 rows up, and for two seats for the entire playoffs (16 potential games) it's a little over $2000 per seat.

Yes, really, that cheap.

Sadly, no other options for early morning flight that doesn't break the bank.

I've never heard of them, but how bad could it be?
- Atomic Wedgie

Oooh, maybe not.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/p...line-complaints-1.6863897

Oooh, maybe not.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/p...line-complaints-1.6863897
- Atomic Wedgie

Flair is pretty terrible. But since it's an early morning flight, there is a chance it may actually be on time as with any luck the plane will have been sitting on the ground overnight. When flying on ULCCs, the later in the day the worse as delays pile up throughout the day.

- BINGO!

Surprised he beat Nick Backstrom..then I googled he never played 500 games.

Flair is pretty terrible. But since it's an early morning flight, there is a chance it may actually be on time as with any luck the plane will have been sitting on the ground overnight. When flying on ULCCs, the later in the day the worse as delays pile up throughout the day.
- Whipper

Yeah you say that but I had my 6:30 am AC flight break down before I could even get on the (frank)ing thing and then they couldn't get me onto another until two days later.

Cancelled and went Westjet instead.

Boston would be a little cheaper - stay for 3 nights instead of two, maybe $100 less per person, but you'd pay out the wazoo for game tickets.

And wtf with charging for a carry-on bag?

What are the odds I can force Mrs. Wedgie to do three nights in Boston with only a personal bag?

Flair is pretty terrible. But since it's an early morning flight, there is a chance it may actually be on time as with any luck the plane will have been sitting on the ground overnight. When flying on ULCCs, the later in the day the worse as delays pile up throughout the day.
- Whipper

Flair is fine, just drink yourself to death before boarding and you're good. It's like RyanAir.

Yeah you say that but I had my 6:30 am AC flight break down before I could even get on the (frank)ing thing and then they couldn't get me onto another until two days later.

Cancelled and went Westjet instead.
- BINGO!

What if we got Artic Aardvark to arrange a group flight for us?

Boston would be a little cheaper - stay for 3 nights instead of two, maybe $100 less per person, but you'd pay out the wazoo for game tickets.

And wtf with charging for a carry-on bag?

What are the odds I can force Mrs. Wedgie to do three nights in Boston with only a personal bag?
- Atomic Wedgie

Drive to NY State and park. Will save you 1000 bucks.