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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Leafs Lead On Tampa Shrinking; Playoff Lineup Options - Part 2
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Pacificgem
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Swedish4Ever, BC
Joined: 07.01.2007

Apr 5 @ 12:23 PM ET
Buffalo - close proximity and relatively cheap tickets for visitors.

A guy can hope, right?

- Atomic Wedgie

At this point, considering your options, that's pretty much all you got.
Dozzer
Referee
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow since I’m way up high
Joined: 09.15.2010

Apr 5 @ 12:24 PM ET
Leafs lines at practice

Bertuzzi - Matthews - Domi
McMann - Tavares - Marner
Knies - Holmberg - Nylander
Dewar - Kampf - Reaves
Gregor, Robertson

Rielly - Lyubushkin
Benoit - McCabe
Giordano - Brodie
Edmundson - Timmins

Samsonov
Woll
Jones


Leafs spreading out the stars

- bryant


Kind of what I was hoping for tbh. Was thinking that Marner might get put into line 3 but to be fair Nylander is the better choice and mainly for skating. Line 3 will be quicker and line 2 will be better puck handlers. I like it.
senstroll
Location: Leafs AAV Champs, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Apr 5 @ 12:25 PM ET
makes sense keeping AM line as is.
plug MM in somewhere else

Matthews has played almost 600 minutes without either of Marner or Nylander on his wing over the last three seasons. In that time, his expected goals percentage is 58.6 percent and the Leafs have outscored opponents 42-21, or 67.1 percent of the goals. With either of Marner or Nylander, his expected goals percentage is 59.7 percent, with 60.2 percent of the goals.


Zezel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: God Leafs Satan The Oneness, ON
Joined: 02.28.2011

Apr 5 @ 12:30 PM ET
My expected pancakes is 110%
Zezel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: God Leafs Satan The Oneness, ON
Joined: 02.28.2011

Apr 5 @ 12:33 PM ET
I'm getting an ad on here for 'Luxury Private Rehab' Maybe cause we were talking about Bobby Ryan.
Ear Hole
Location: Halifax
Joined: 07.18.2018

Apr 5 @ 12:36 PM ET
Agree, IO would prefer the Rangers just because it is not Boston or Florida.. Would like variety.. NHL needs to switch up 1-8,2-7,3-6,4-5... or even 1-16,2-15....
- Azuredoom



IF it was the 16 plays 1 format, Leafs would play Florida from the stats as they are today.
mjones242
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Pretentious Beer Snob, ON
Joined: 06.22.2015

Apr 5 @ 12:40 PM ET
From last blog, +/- player evaluation discussion:
That's why the 5v5 numbers are used - that's basically Goals For - Goals Against at 5v5. Noting that defensive play is enhanced by simply being on a line that has the puck more than the opposition or that carries the play and possesses it in the offensive zone. You can watch guys like Domi, Bertuzzi, Nylander and Gregor and recognize that while there are some things they do well, there are a number of defensive postures that they fail at - they don't close tight on an opponent well enough although often when they do, they are beaten in the 1 on 1 - whether it's physical or simply outmaneuvered. Domi and Nylander are both particularly guilty of the one-handed fly-by where you hope to pluck the puck and go - but it fails about 90% of the time, so you end up putting your team at a disadvantage by taking yourself out of position.

In Domi's case he's benefitted from participating well in the possession side. In Nylander's case he's honestly hampered by having a centre who is no longer at the top of his game - but he's further hampered by cheating on the puck way too often. It's hard to blame Gregor - he's just not that good. Bertuzzi is a guy that I find hard to explain. You ever play hockey drunk? You're like all over the ice and you think you're playing well and the rest of your team is looking at you like, "What the Hell is up with you?" . . . This might just be my take, but Bertuzzi is like that. An all effort whirling dervish, and usually WAY out of position as a result.

On the flipside of the criticisms, I have to admit that there's been noticeable growth in the defensive side of a few guys (still a lot of brain farts, but things are improving) - like Knies, Holmberg, and in particular - McMann.

- Monkeypunk


Even just narrowing the scope to 5v5 produces numbers that are hopelessly reductive.

For example, it does not take into consideration strength of opposing lines, strength of linemates, zone starts, etc. It also uses events that are far too rare - goals for/against - to really provide any statistical meaningfulness, which, of course, is why Corsi, Fenwick, et al were created and are only slightly less flawed tools.

We all know that Domi is not a good defensive player. But how can we measure and quantify that lack of defensive prowess? +/- is not that tool and should be thrown into the trash bin.
Symba007
Montreal Canadiens
Location: I'm bi. Why limit yourself with half of the possible delicious pleasures of life - Fredo, ON
Joined: 02.26.2007

Apr 5 @ 12:41 PM ET
IF it was the 16 plays 1 format, Leafs would play Florida from the stats as they are today.
- Ear Hole

"We want Florida
drexel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Corn Pop was a bad dude, AB
Joined: 06.29.2006

Apr 5 @ 12:42 PM ET
Jacob Quillan on signing with the Maple Leafs, who were his favourite team growing up: "Just a dream come true.
- Santo_44[I'm] just looking forward to the next step and hopefully become a Leaf one day."




He has the PJ's

more importantly, where does he land in the top 40 prospects list
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: This world is just a veil and the face you wear is not your own., ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Apr 5 @ 12:43 PM ET
I'd be hoping for Boston if I were you.
- Pacificgem

We want Florida. We want Florida.
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: This world is just a veil and the face you wear is not your own., ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Apr 5 @ 12:54 PM ET
makes sense keeping AM line as is.
plug MM in somewhere else

- senstroll

AM line has better defensive numbers with MM. Easier to throw them out for both
O-zone and D-zone starts
Arctic_AARDVARK
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Retired, ON
Joined: 07.24.2011

Apr 5 @ 1:08 PM ET
I'm getting an ad on here for 'Luxury Private Rehab' Maybe cause we were talking about Bobby Ryan.
- Zezel

You see your DM?

Arctic_AARDVARK
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Retired, ON
Joined: 07.24.2011

Apr 5 @ 1:10 PM ET
Lots of people coping with the fact that Marner is coming back.

They think he’s going to hurt Matthews’ production.

He’ll turn the freaking frogs gay!
Arctic_AARDVARK
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Retired, ON
Joined: 07.24.2011

Apr 5 @ 1:11 PM ET
We want Florida. We want Florida.
- Canada Cup

Not the state.

The hockey club.

We want absolutely nothing to do with the state.
Whipper
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: GalacticStone made avi, AB
Joined: 07.04.2006

Apr 5 @ 1:14 PM ET
Lots of people coping with the fact that Marner is coming back.

They think he’s going to hurt Matthews’ production.

He’ll turn the freaking frogs gay!

- Arctic_AARDVARK

I literally don't think there is a single Leaf fan on here that isn't glad to have MM back.
Zezel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: God Leafs Satan The Oneness, ON
Joined: 02.28.2011

Apr 5 @ 1:15 PM ET
You see your DM?
- Arctic_AARDVARK

Arctic_AARDVARK
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Retired, ON
Joined: 07.24.2011

Apr 5 @ 1:16 PM ET
I literally don't think there is a single Leaf fan on here that isn't glad to have MM back.
- Whipper

Not back riding shotty with Papi tho.

“gOtTa kEeP bErTuZzI wItH MaFyEwSz”

They’re coping. A natural reaction when something you don’t want to happen, is going to happen.
Maddox2107
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 09.04.2007

Apr 5 @ 1:17 PM ET
"We want Florida
- Symba007

First try to make the playoffs
Whipper
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: GalacticStone made avi, AB
Joined: 07.04.2006

Apr 5 @ 1:18 PM ET
Not back riding shotty with Papi tho.

“gOtTa kEeP bErTuZzI wItH MaFyEwSz”

They’re coping. A natural reaction when something you don’t want to happen, is going to happen.

- Arctic_AARDVARK

I mean, it's a nice problem to have. It'd be great to have Mitch dishing to JT and Nylander down on the third like hopefully lighting teams up.

We all know Keefe is going to be doing the blender 2 minutes into Saturdays game anyways.
Scabeh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: The Slovakian Jagr, QC
Joined: 02.25.2007

Apr 5 @ 1:20 PM ET
Not back riding shotty with Papi tho.

“gOtTa kEeP bErTuZzI wItH MaFyEwSz”

They’re coping. A natural reaction when something you don’t want to happen, is going to happen.

- Arctic_AARDVARK


Not that I don't think Marner isn't going back with Matthews.

But Pittsburgh won a cup by having Crosby/Malkin/Kessel on three different lines, opposing team couldn't defend against them all.

Couldn't it be interesting to see the Leafs try something similar? Having Matthews/Nylander/Marner on three different lines and together on the pp?
Arctic_AARDVARK
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Retired, ON
Joined: 07.24.2011

Apr 5 @ 1:23 PM ET
I mean, it's a nice problem to have. It'd be great to have Mitch dishing to JT and Nylander down on the third like hopefully lighting teams up.

We all know Keefe is going to be doing the blender 2 minutes into Saturdays game anyways.

- Whipper

It’s absolutely not a problem tho!

People are dreaming up this “problem” because they’ll find any reason to hate on Mitch.

This is what it should be.

Domi Matthews Marner
McMann Tavares Nylander
Bertuzzi Holmberg Knies
Dewar Kampf Reaves

If Mitch isn’t on the first line at the start of the game, he will be by the end.
Arctic_AARDVARK
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Retired, ON
Joined: 07.24.2011

Apr 5 @ 1:25 PM ET
Not that I don't think Marner isn't going back with Matthews.

But Pittsburgh won a cup by having Crosby/Malkin/Kessel on three different lines, opposing team couldn't defend against them all.

Couldn't it be interesting to see the Leafs try something similar? Having Matthews/Nylander/Marner on three different lines and together on the pp?

- Scabeh


The Leafs have enough depth scoring (imo) that they don’t have to spread it out like that.

However, if the top line finds itself getting shutdown in the playoffs, then they’ll have to make adjustments.
Scabeh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: The Slovakian Jagr, QC
Joined: 02.25.2007

Apr 5 @ 1:26 PM ET
The Leafs have enough depth scoring (imo) that they don’t have to spread it out like that.

However, if the top line finds itself getting shutdown in the playoffs, then they’ll have to make adjustments.

- Arctic_AARDVARK


It's something they should have done against Montreal back in the day and didn't. So I've remained curious to see it actually happen.
dmnted
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Space for Rent
Joined: 08.30.2006

Apr 5 @ 1:31 PM ET
No, hemp pancakes probably. But I do enjoy a good potato pancake.
- Zezel

i had a craving last weekend and made a bunch for dinner
Arctic_AARDVARK
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Retired, ON
Joined: 07.24.2011

Apr 5 @ 1:31 PM ET
It's something they should have done against Montreal back in the day and didn't. So I've remained curious to see it actually happen.
- Scabeh

At the end of the day I just want this team to win a cup.

I don’t think Keefe is the guy who’ll lead these (frank)ers out of Egypt.

As for the Pens comparison of spreading out the offence, there’s 10 examples for that not being the case with cup winners, for every one example of that happening.



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