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Forums :: Blog World :: Brad Lohr: Groundhog Day
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homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Aug 17 @ 9:08 PM ET
Their current cap makes a multi-year deal at any kind of cap hit difficult.
- Lunaion
top 5 gm weaponized his cap space this summer


better chance a monkey flies out of our blogger's ass then getting kane
Swedish_Jesus
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 07.02.2019

Aug 17 @ 9:23 PM ET
top 5 gm weaponized his cap space this summer


better chance a monkey flies out of our blogger's ass then getting kane

- homiedclown


They have $3.5M roughly to play with if they want to have an internal cap of $79M (saving $3M for Power and Levi’s performance bonuses they are likely to hit).

It’s possible, especially if he waits to sign until mid way through the year.

I personally do not want Kane, but they are able to add someone if they did want to with just exposing roster players to waivers.
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Aug 17 @ 9:24 PM ET
They have $3.5M roughly to play with if they want to have an internal cap of $79M (saving $3M for Power and Levi’s performance bonuses they are likely to hit).

It’s possible, especially if he waits to sign until mid way through the year.

I personally do not want Kane, but they are able to add someone if they did want to with just exposing roster players to waivers.

- Swedish_Jesus

I think they will need that money sooner for a middle 6 winger or goalie long before kane suits up this winter

Swedish_Jesus
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 07.02.2019

Aug 17 @ 9:29 PM ET
I think they will need that money sooner for a middle 6 winger or goalie long before kane suits up this winter
- homiedclown


With Rousek having the ability to go down without needing waivers, they could potentially run a 22 man roster as well at certain points in the year (while they are on a home stand for example) to save a few extra dollars and cents if it really comes down to it.

Could also paper transaction Levi to Rochester on nights you know he won’t be playing.
Michael Ghofrani
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.14.2020

Aug 17 @ 9:45 PM ET
They have $3.5M roughly to play with if they want to have an internal cap of $79M (saving $3M for Power and Levi’s performance bonuses they are likely to hit).

It’s possible, especially if he waits to sign until mid way through the year.

I personally do not want Kane, but they are able to add someone if they did want to with just exposing roster players to waivers.

- Swedish_Jesus



In order for him to receive the full 925k he'd have to a sv% greater than the median goalie (25GP+) and a GAA less than the median.

The median last year was something like .903 sv% and 2.85 GAA. For comparison's sake, luukkonen was an .891 sv% and GAA of 3.66.

So in order for Levi to get that bonus, either the defense really did improve, the forwards got better defensively, or he's very good. Either of these scenarios likely means they're in a playoff spot and so the less than 1 mil they lose in cap here does not bother me at all.
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

Aug 17 @ 9:46 PM ET
They have $3.5M roughly to play with if they want to have an internal cap of $79M (saving $3M for Power and Levi’s performance bonuses they are likely to hit).

It’s possible, especially if he waits to sign until mid way through the year.

I personally do not want Kane, but they are able to add someone if they did want to with just exposing roster players to waivers.

- Swedish_Jesus


If you're planning to avoid a bonus overage, you need a cushion for injuries as well.
Jet Jaguar BD
Seattle Kraken
Location: BD look 👀 at you pic and you look like a burned out short order cook hiding in mommy basement!!
Joined: 07.17.2021

Aug 17 @ 9:47 PM ET
frazier is horrible on nfl network


super bowl or bust year, he must have been relieved from his duties and to keep the money had to stay off the field this season

- homiedclown

Frazier is a god damn zombie with zero charisma or personality he sucks (frank) him
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

Aug 17 @ 9:47 PM ET
In order for him to receive the full 925k he'd have to a sv% greater than the median goalie (25GP+) and a GAA less than the median.

The median last year was something like .903 sv% and 2.85 GAA. For comparison's sake, luukkonen was an .891 sv% and GAA of 3.66.

So in order for Levi to get that bonus, either the defense really did improve, the forwards got better defensively, or he's very good. Either of these scenarios likely means they're in a playoff spot and so the less than 1 mil they lose in cap here does not bother me at all.

- Michael Ghofrani


How do you know his bonus clause(s)?
Michael Ghofrani
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.14.2020

Aug 17 @ 9:48 PM ET
How do you know his bonus clause(s)?
- Lunaion



His bonuses are schedule A ELC aren't they?
Swedish_Jesus
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 07.02.2019

Aug 17 @ 9:53 PM ET
In order for him to receive the full 925k he'd have to a sv% greater than the median goalie (25GP+) and a GAA less than the median.

The median last year was something like .903 sv% and 2.85 GAA. For comparison's sake, luukkonen was an .891 sv% and GAA of 3.66.

So in order for Levi to get that bonus, either the defense really did improve, the forwards got better defensively, or he's very good. Either of these scenarios likely means they're in a playoff spot and so the less than 1 mil they lose in cap here does not bother me at all.

- Michael Ghofrani


Another thing to consider if your post plays out and Levi hits his bonuses, the Sabres are flush with cap space this coming offseason and more then a few roster spots have very strong likelihood of being filled with ELC’s and Rousek (as he loses his waiver eligibility).

With few holes to realistically fill, they’d have to spend like drunken sailors on really 1-3 roster spots to even kiss the cap I would think.

So even if they did go a tad bit over this year, it’s negligible
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

Aug 17 @ 9:53 PM ET
His bonuses are schedule A ELC aren't they?
- Michael Ghofrani


Yes, had it in my mind that they agreed on items from the list. Reading it more carefully, he can hit any 4 on the list.


Goalies

-1,800 minutes played

-GAA < median GAA of all goalies with 25+ GP

-SV % > median save % of all goalies who played 25+ GP

-20 Wins (30+ mins in a game to qualify)

-Shutouts > median number of shutouts of all goalies who played 25+ GP

-End-of Season All Rookie Team

-All Star Selection

-All Star MVP
Michael Ghofrani
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.14.2020

Aug 17 @ 9:56 PM ET
Yes, had it in my mind that they agreed on items from the list. Reading it more carefully, he can hit any 4 on the list.


Goalies

-1,800 minutes played

-GAA < median GAA of all goalies with 25+ GP

-SV % > median save % of all goalies who played 25+ GP

-20 Wins (30+ mins in a game to qualify)

-Shutouts > median number of shutouts of all goalies who played 25+ GP

-End-of Season All Rookie Team

-All Star Selection

-All Star MVP

- Lunaion


Any combination of 4 is probably good news. I guess the "worst" one is rookie team,shutouts,wins and minutes played.

Cause I think the median for shutouts last year was two lol.
Michael Ghofrani
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.14.2020

Aug 17 @ 9:57 PM ET
Another thing to consider if your post plays out and Levi hits his bonuses, the Sabres are flush with cap space this coming offseason and more then a few roster spots have very strong likelihood of being filled with ELC’s and Rousek (as he loses his waiver eligibility).

With few holes to realistically fill, they’d have to spend like drunken sailors on really 1-3 roster spots to even kiss the cap I would think.

So even if they did go a tad bit over this year, it’s negligible

- Swedish_Jesus



I also think with or without the performance bonuses, they're going to try and send olofsson the other way in any major deal they make.
Boss34
Buffalo Sabres
Location: BUFFALO , NY
Joined: 12.03.2015

Aug 17 @ 10:03 PM ET
Yes, had it in my mind that they agreed on items from the list. Reading it more carefully, he can hit any 4 on the list.


Goalies

-1,800 minutes played

-GAA < median GAA of all goalies with 25+ GP

-SV % > median save % of all goalies who played 25+ GP

-20 Wins (30+ mins in a game to qualify)

-Shutouts > median number of shutouts of all goalies who played 25+ GP

-End-of Season All Rookie Team

-All Star Selection

-All Star MVP

- Lunaion



Good stuff lun.



PHENOM TIME
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

Aug 17 @ 10:03 PM ET
Another thing to consider if your post plays out and Levi hits his bonuses, the Sabres are flush with cap space this coming offseason and more then a few roster spots have very strong likelihood of being filled with ELC’s and Rousek (as he loses his waiver eligibility).

With few holes to realistically fill, they’d have to spend like drunken sailors on really 1-3 roster spots to even kiss the cap I would think.

So even if they did go a tad bit over this year, it’s negligible

- Swedish_Jesus


If you sign Dahlin, Power, and Mitts to term and want to improve next summer, I think there's some real cap pressure. They have a lot of contracts to sign.
Michael Ghofrani
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.14.2020

Aug 17 @ 10:09 PM ET
If you sign Dahlin, Power, and Mitts to term and want to improve next summer, I think there's some real cap pressure. They have a lot of contracts to sign.
- Lunaion



What are you projecting Mitts at out of curiosity?
Swedish_Jesus
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 07.02.2019

Aug 17 @ 10:10 PM ET
I also think with or without the performance bonuses, they're going to try and send olofsson the other way in any major deal they make.
- Michael Ghofrani


2025/2026 is really when the salary cap gymnastics will come into effect.

There really isn’t anything prohibiting the Sabres from making a move they think will make this team better today.
Michael Ghofrani
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.14.2020

Aug 17 @ 10:12 PM ET
2024/2025 is really when the salary cap gymnastics will come into effect.

There really isn’t anything prohibiting the Sabres from making a move they think will make this team better today.

- Swedish_Jesus



That's the problem though now that I think about it. It's not the bonuses, but the fact that they're not willing to trade for rentals.

They'll want someone under roster control, or open to an extension, which eats into their 24/25 cap.
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

Aug 17 @ 10:13 PM ET
What are you projecting Mitts at out of curiosity?
- Michael Ghofrani


Tough question. If he repeats last season, maybe 5.5m?

Will he? No clue.
Jet Jaguar BD
Seattle Kraken
Location: BD look 👀 at you pic and you look like a burned out short order cook hiding in mommy basement!!
Joined: 07.17.2021

Aug 17 @ 10:14 PM ET
What are you projecting Mitts at out of curiosity?
- Michael Ghofrani

Projunted formse teh promjecj til the sujn combdup whejn tyu lighte hitse thi sidj promjekting
Michael Ghofrani
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.14.2020

Aug 17 @ 10:17 PM ET
Tough question. If he repeats last season, maybe 5.5m?

Will he? No clue.

- Lunaion



Yeah ive spent some time thinking about it and one of the realizations ive entertained is, there may not be a scenario that's amicable for both sides.

If he has a bad year, the number goes down, but then, you're looking at the old casey, someone you wouldn't give term to.

If he's as good or better, now you've gotta negotiate a deal from a position of weakness. Arb eligible and any deal greater than what like 2 years starts buying UFA years.

If there are still holes on the roster elsewhere are you in a position to pay him and the other moves you need? Feels unlikely, especially after factoring in the forwards in rochester and the totally made up city in washington.

This also doesn't factor in Krebs being any good. If he is that's another wrinkle.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Aug 17 @ 10:19 PM ET
Yes, had it in my mind that they agreed on items from the list. Reading it more carefully, he can hit any 4 on the list.

Goalies

-1,800 minutes played

-GAA < median GAA of all goalies with 25+ GP

-SV % > median save % of all goalies who played 25+ GP

-20 Wins (30+ mins in a game to qualify)

-Shutouts > median number of shutouts of all goalies who played 25+ GP

-End-of Season All Rookie Team

-All Star Selection

-All Star MVP

- Lunaion


He'll hit the near half a million for minutes played and 20 wins.

It's a matter of what others may he hit.

For fun, here's what Power would need to hit.

Four of the following for $850K:

Defensemen

-10 goals

-25 assists

-40 points

-Top four in Time on Ice among Defensemen (in total and/or per game) on team (minimum 42 games)

-Top three in +/- among defensemen on team (minimum 42 games)

-0.49 points per game (minimum 42 games)

-Top two among defensemen on team in blocked shocks

-End-of Season All Rookie Team

-All Star Selection

-All Star MVP

Any one of the following for an additional million:

Defensemen: Top Ten in NHL Defensemen Goals, Assists, points, ice time or points per game (min 42 GP) for Defensemen
Swedish_Jesus
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 07.02.2019

Aug 17 @ 10:19 PM ET
If you sign Dahlin, Power, and Mitts to term and want to improve next summer, I think there's some real cap pressure. They have a lot of contracts to sign.
- Lunaion


Tage, Cozens, Skinner, Tuch, Quinn, Peterka, Greenway are all accounted for.

Barring something drastic, Krebs’ raise from his ELC will be roughly $1-1.5M ? Even if Mitts brings the roof down, his raise from his current salary is really what $3M ? That’s if Mittelstadt and Krebs aren’t dealt to begin with.

That leaves you two forward spots which will inevitably be filled by any of the combination of Benson, Savoie, Kulich, Rosen, Rousek.

Dahlin gets a $4M raise, Samuelsson, Power, Clifton are already accounted for. Joker is the only RFA worth a poop and I can’t imagine him getting too much of a raise if he’s even here to begin with.

2025/2026 is when it gets interesting with Power, Quinn, Peterka in line to get paid.
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

Aug 17 @ 10:20 PM ET
Yeah ive spent some time thinking about it and one of the realizations ive entertained is, there may not be a scenario that's amicable for both sides.

If he has a bad year, the number goes down, but then, you're looking at the old casey, someone you wouldn't give term to.

If he's as good or better, now you've gotta negotiate a deal from a position of weakness. Arb eligible and any deal greater than what like 2 years starts buying UFA years.

If there are still holes on the roster elsewhere are you in a position to pay him and the other moves you need? Feels unlikely, especially after factoring in the forwards in rochester and the totally made up city in washington.

- Michael Ghofrani


I don't think anyone is sure if he's a 2C or 3LW. Makes it really hard. With all these kids coming, how does this all fit together?

I know they like him, but something has to give soon.
Michael Ghofrani
Buffalo Sabres
Joined: 01.14.2020

Aug 17 @ 10:22 PM ET
He'll hit the near half a million for minutes played and 20 wins.

It's a matter of what others may he hit.

For fun, here's what Power would need to hit.

Four of the following for $850K:

Defensemen

-10 goals

-25 assists

-40 points

-Top four in Time on Ice among Defensemen (in total and/or per game) on team (minimum 42 games)

-Top three in +/- among defensemen on team (minimum 42 games)

-0.49 points per game (minimum 42 games)

-Top two among defensemen on team in blocked shocks

-End-of Season All Rookie Team

-All Star Selection

-All Star MVP

Any one of the following for an additional million:

Defensemen: Top Ten in NHL Defensemen Goals, Assists, points, ice time or points per game (min 42 GP) for Defensemen

- kingcong39


Genuinely out here hoping for the performance bonuses to eat our cap.
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