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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Development Cap Wrapup
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aightwebang17
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Typical Montreal, PA
Joined: 07.10.2008

Jul 3 @ 11:46 AM ET
16 even strength goals is absurd to think about from a Dman.
- ClaudeFather

yes, but how many were empty netters?

#atleasthalf
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 3 @ 11:51 AM ET
I'm not quite ready to lock up TK for 8 years, but I'd go as much as 6 years and 30 million, aav 5.0 million

There is no way you getting Provy that cheaply. He is already an established #1 Dman on a playoff team who plays nearly 25 minutes per game. 8 years at 65 million, aav 8.125 is probably what it will end up costing them and I think he's worth every penny.

- BiggE


I think they can get both players cheaper than that.
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

Jul 3 @ 11:54 AM ET
Just for discussion but would any of you have interest in Karlsson? With the prospect depth would you do something like Rubtsov, Sanheim, 2019 1st(top 5 protected), 2020 2nd rounder? Add in Laughton is needed?

Provorov, Karlsson and Gostisbehere is a pretty good top 3. I know you'll have to pay Karlsson and Provorov but wouldn't it be worth it for those two?

MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 3 @ 11:59 AM ET
I'm starting to think that some folks around here just do not understand how good IP is right now and that he's going to get even better.
- Scoob


I think he is really good for a 20 year old and no doubt is going to get even better. However, many have him overrated in terms of how he stacks up against the top defenseman in the league. He's not there yet.
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Jul 3 @ 12:03 PM ET
I think he is really good for a 20 year old and no doubt is going to get even better. However, many have him overrated in terms of how he stacks up against the top defenseman in the league. He's not there yet.
- MJL


For a 20 year old he's incredible. Not tops in the league yet, but getting there won't take long. Maybe this upcoming season, the following one at the latest.

imho
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 3 @ 12:03 PM ET
Hexy literal quote is he was done with free agent forwards and the only way one would come is through a trade or internally.
- Tfaehner


I read that he is continuing to monitor the market.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 3 @ 12:04 PM ET
For a 20 year old he's incredible. Not tops in the league yet, but getting there won't take long. Maybe this upcoming season, the following one at the latest.

imho

- Scoob


I would say a little longer. 3-4 years.
ravishingone
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, PA
Joined: 06.30.2007

Jul 3 @ 12:04 PM ET
Just for discussion but would any of you have interest in Karlsson? With the prospect depth would you do something like Rubtsov, Sanheim, 2019 1st(top 5 protected), 2020 2nd rounder? Add in Laughton is needed?

Provorov, Karlsson and Gostisbehere is a pretty good top 3. I know you'll have to pay Karlsson and Provorov but wouldn't it be worth it for those two?

- J35Bacher


The salary average or even those assets wouldn't bother it's the term, I would be concerned. In 2 years or less, Gudas, AMac, Lehtera, Elliott, Neuvy and Simmonds all off the books. I believe Karlsson has the ability to age gracefully like a Niedermeyer, but not 100 % certain.
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

Jul 3 @ 12:05 PM ET
I think he is really good for a 20 year old and no doubt is going to get even better. However, many have him overrated in terms of how he stacks up against the top defenseman in the league. He's not there yet.
- MJL



So you don't see any comparison in the deal Ekblad just signed? I just don't see any chance his next deal is lower then his AAV over 8 years.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 3 @ 12:07 PM ET
Just for discussion but would any of you have interest in Karlsson? With the prospect depth would you do something like Rubtsov, Sanheim, 2019 1st(top 5 protected), 2020 2nd rounder? Add in Laughton is needed?

Provorov, Karlsson and Gostisbehere is a pretty good top 3. I know you'll have to pay Karlsson and Provorov but wouldn't it be worth it for those two?

- J35Bacher


That wouldn't get it done in my opinion. Swap Konecny for Rubtsov and maybe that would start a conversation.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 3 @ 12:09 PM ET
So you don't see any comparison in the deal Ekblad just signed? I just don't see any chance his next deal is lower then his AAV over 8 years.
- J35Bacher


Here is the deal. They could get him cheaper on a shorter deal but the question remains should they? It might be smart to overpay now and gain on the backend while salaries continue to escalate. I think Provorov is a candidate for that kind of deal.
Pat MaGroin
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Kensington, PA
Joined: 06.03.2007

Jul 3 @ 12:10 PM ET
Not sure if posted already, but Broad Street Hockey did an in depth write up about Provorov upcoming contract.

https://www.broadstreetho...s-comparables-ron-hextall
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

Jul 3 @ 12:11 PM ET
That wouldn't get it done in my opinion. Swap Konecny for Rubtsov and maybe that would start a conversation.
- MJL



Would have to see what others are offering. I don't NEED him. I have pieces they would probably like. Depends on what others offer. But not sure a ton of teams have pieces to move plus fit the future contract.
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jul 3 @ 12:19 PM ET
I'm not Bill, but most hockey sites and publications have ranked the Flyers prospects among the top 5 groups in the league for a few years now.
- BiggE



agreed but curious how close it is or are other teams way behind in their depth.
ravishingone
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: United States, PA
Joined: 06.30.2007

Jul 3 @ 12:21 PM ET
Would have to see what others are offering. I don't NEED him. I have pieces they would probably like. Depends on what others offer. But not sure a ton of teams have pieces to move plus fit the future contract.
- J35Bacher


Plus, Karlsson does have some leverage, which can keep the assets needed to acquire down some what.
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jul 3 @ 12:25 PM ET
I'm starting to think that some folks around here just do not understand how good IP is right now and that he's going to get even better.
- Scoob



i think you can mirror Daughtery out in LA
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 3 @ 12:26 PM ET
i think you can mirror Daughtery out in LA
- wcorvette


Doughty was a couple of steps above what Provorov is now at the same experience level.
juiced
Joined: 06.13.2014

Jul 3 @ 12:30 PM ET
Doughty was a couple of steps above what Provorov is now at the same experience level.
- MJL


I love Provy as much as the next guy, but he has zero votes for Norris, zero all star games....lots of people speculating he should be paid like a top 5 D-man in the league is a little wishful thinking.

Do I think he'll get there...absolutely! But he doesn't have those accolades to demand top 5-7 type money.
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Jul 3 @ 12:34 PM ET
I love Provy as much as the next guy, but he has zero votes for Norris, zero all star games....lots of people speculating he should be paid like a top 5 D-man in the league is a little wishful thinking.

Do I think he'll get there...absolutely! But he doesn't have those accolades to demand top 5-7 type money.

- juiced


Imho that's a poor measuring stick as there is too much emphasis on points with that award. That Ghost got votes and Provorov didn't tells me all I need to know about those who vote on that award.

I don't care one iota how many AS games a player plays in. AS games are meaningless folly.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 3 @ 12:34 PM ET
I love Provy as much as the next guy, but he has zero votes for Norris, zero all star games....lots of people speculating he should be paid like a top 5 D-man in the league is a little wishful thinking.

Do I think he'll get there...absolutely! But he doesn't have those accolades to demand top 5-7 type money.

- juiced


I think the idea that most have is to sign him for a deal that overpays him now in order to save in later years.
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jul 3 @ 12:38 PM ET
For a 20 year old he's incredible. Not tops in the league yet, but getting there won't take long. Maybe this upcoming season, the following one at the latest.

imho

- Scoob


He is missing a successful playoff series on his resume, hurt or not the Pens worked the Flyers. I think he is great and will be better, I think inflation will get him closer to 8 but if he was smart he do a bridge and bet on himself.
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

Jul 3 @ 12:40 PM ET
I think the idea that most have is to sign him for a deal that overpays him now in order to save in later years.
- MJL



Pretty much. But is 8 years at 7.5 an overpay? to me he is worth that to the FLYERS.
opeth_pa
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: The Implication
Joined: 12.13.2011

Jul 3 @ 12:41 PM ET
i think you can mirror Daughtery out in LA
- wcorvette


Maybe someday but not yet.
As good as Provy is I dont think the words "mirror Daugherty" can be used .
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

Jul 3 @ 12:41 PM ET
He is missing a successful playoff series on his resume, hurt or not the Pens worked the Flyers. I think he is great and will be better, I think inflation will get him closer to 8 but if he was smart he do a bridge and bet on himself.
- wcorvette



He also plays a physical game that causes injuries. Sometimes players like that security. It only takes one freak injury to end a career.
juiced
Joined: 06.13.2014

Jul 3 @ 12:42 PM ET
I think the idea that most have is to sign him for a deal that overpays him now in order to save in later years.
- MJL


I get it but I dont think the overpayment needs to be $8mm....that seems too high.

My guess is you could get him at 7 for $7mm without much drama.....and if you did 6 years probably $6.5MM per.

and before everyone says it....yes, I believe he'll outplay those numbers, but that isnt a foundation for the demand of $8mm. Ekblad had 1st pick, calder and all star AND performance to warrant his money.
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