TK didn’t literally vanish he was usually the best player on the ice. When you have zero help it’s hard to do much.
Without a doubt TK and his speed helped G and Coots.
He is a very good player not a star.
- bird_dog_pa

When he didn't have other players to draw attention he vanished. Stats don't lie. Literally anyone on the wing with G and Coots had ridiculous stats. When playing with TK, G and Coots were more minus players, because TK can't defend. And paying star money suggests that the player can make others better. Put Simmer on a line: better. Put Jake on a line: better. Put Lindblom on a line: better. Put TK on a line: nope.

I totally copy and pasted it. I ain't writing that poop brand spankin new for hockeybuzz.

Also, I just wanted to impress PSG.
- Mononoke

Well now I’m embarrassed

Provorov did say that he was going to score 20 goals and I do believe him

Unless the Flyers sign Karlsson, Provy will be the Flyers #1 Dman for years to come. He is not running PP1 only because he is being blocked by an inferior player AND the fact that the Flyers need him to log heavy PK and 5v5 minutes which that other player is unsuited for. Unlike literally anyone else on the team, he can play 200ft., and when he has a solid partner, he is an offensive threat on every shift. The problem is that the Flyers have very few stable defenders.
- hockeyal

You mean the same inferior player who led all d-men in PP scoring?

Provorov was 2nd worst for d-men (ahead of Klefbom) in points/60 in equal or better PP minutes. Last season, he was 3rd worst. Do I think that's true talent? No. There are other factors at hand. But the idea he doesn't have something to prove about his PP work is crazy to me. The idea he should be gifted PP1 time (over Ghost or Voracek or whoever) is more crazy. Less crazy is Sanheim should play on the PP before him.

hockeyal, no.

For a guy who literally vanished when he wasn't on a line with G and Coots, that's a lot of money. That's Vinnie money. If you won't sign de Haan because he wants 4 years, no way you give TK 4 years. 3 years $2.35M. He is maybe worth Weise money. By the end of the year, he will be stuck on the third line, playing 10 minutes and a minus player.
- hockeyal

You crack me up. Should change your screen name to just al.

I totally copy and pasted it. I ain't writing that poop brand spankin new for hockeybuzz.

Also, I just wanted to impress PSG.
- Mononoke

Consider me thoroughly impressed

Unless the Flyers sign Karlsson, Provy will be the Flyers #1 Dman for years to come. He is not running PP1 only because he is being blocked by an inferior player AND the fact that the Flyers need him to log heavy PK and 5v5 minutes which that other player is unsuited for. Unlike literally anyone else on the team, he can play 200ft., and when he has a solid partner, he is an offensive threat on every shift. The problem is that the Flyers have very few stable defenders.
- hockeyal

Provorov is not being blocked by an inferior player on the PP. Gostisbehere is one of the top PP defenseman in the entire league. Provorov is not in Gostisbehere's class on the PP.

When he didn't have other players to draw attention he vanished. Stats don't lie. Literally anyone on the wing with G and Coots had ridiculous stats. When playing with TK, G and Coots were more minus players, because TK can't defend. And paying star money suggests that the player can make others better. Put Simmer on a line: better. Put Jake on a line: better. Put Lindblom on a line: better. Put TK on a line: nope.
- hockeyal

There is no question that Konecny provided a spark to that top line when he was moved there. Provided a nice element to it and that's exactly where he should be to start the season. Nobody has suggested that Konecny be paid star money.

I won't gripe if they sign Ivan to 8 years at $6.5 mil or something. But something not really considered is that would mean his 3rd contract starts at age 30 and go until age 38. We all know they will want him to sign another contract here.

Hextall has never signed a RFA, let alone off their ELC, to more than 6 years. If he did, I'm sure it would be for Ivan. But 6 years takes him to age 28-36 for his next one. Usually I like as much term as possible for your core, but 6 years is still long-term (and might lower the cap a bit in the years most likely to win). Who knows what happens in the next CBA too.

Also, I hope all the people who want Provorov to sign for $8 mil want Patrick to sign for $10 mil. Matthews and Eichel as comps.

For a guy who literally vanished when he wasn't on a line with G and Coots, that's a lot of money. That's Vinnie money. If you won't sign de Haan because he wants 4 years, no way you give TK 4 years. 3 years $2.35M. He is maybe worth Weise money. By the end of the year, he will be stuck on the third line, playing 10 minutes and a minus player.
- hockeyal

I don't care who he's playing with, he scored 24 goals this year as a 20 year old. He's going to/should play top 6 going forward. I'd prefer they go longer with him and try to keep the cap hit down.

I totally copy and pasted it. I ain't writing that poop brand spankin new for hockeybuzz.

Also, I just wanted to impress PSG.
- Mononoke

I think the numbers are close, but I do think Provy is better than that group was at the time they signed their 2nd contracts.

*year before contract signing

Provy – 24:09TOI, 2:50 SH/G, 1:42 PP/G….41P, 36ES
Jones– 22min, 2:03 SH/G, 2:33 PP/G….27P, 15 ES
Slavin –20:59 TOI/G, 3:07SH/G, 0:52 PP/G …….34P, 26 ES
Hamilton –21:20 TOI/G, 1:10 SH/G, 2:30 PP/G ….32P, 27 ES
Lindholm (holdout) – 22:00, 2:10 SH/G, 1:52 PP/G …………28P, 12 ES

I do agree about Provy being at his cap for ES points. I can't see him putting up much more than he did on a consistent basis.

I don't know about 3 million better, but I do think he's around 1.5 million better than that group. I wouldn't be upset with 8 years 56 million.....

But I'm terrible with contract assessment, trades etc. I really just like watching the best in the world play hockey.

Also, I hope all the people who want Provorov to sign for $8 mil want Patrick to sign for $10 mil. Kopitar and Eichel are good comps.
- Mononoke

Point production as rookies is not similar.

I won't gripe if they sign Ivan to 8 years at $6.5 mil or something. But something not really considered is that would mean his 3rd contract starts at age 30 and go until age 38. We all know they will want him to sign another contract here.

Hextall has never signed a RFA, let alone off their ELC, to more than 6 years. If he did, I'm sure it would be for Ivan. But 6 years takes him to age 28-36 for his next one. Usually I like as much term as possible for your core, but 6 years is still long-term (and might lower the cap a bit in the years most likely to win). Who knows what happens in the next CBA too.
- Mononoke

We have talked about this. I was initially all for a shorter deal at first but now I definitely want 8. I agree about the next CBA. That’s a good point, but it’ll still be an issue on a 6 year deal. I can’t imagine they will let deals go longer right now.

Lock him up! I think 2 more 8 year deals is perfect for him

I think the numbers are close, but I do think Provy is better than that group was at the time they signed their 2nd contracts.

*year before contract signing

Provy – 24:09TOI, 2:50 SH/G, 1:42 PP/G….41P, 36ES
Jones– 22min, 2:03 SH/G, 2:33 PP/G….27P, 15 ES
Slavin –20:59 TOI/G, 3:07SH/G, 0:52 PP/G …….34P, 26 ES
Hamilton –21:20 TOI/G, 1:10 SH/G, 2:30 PP/G ….32P, 27 ES
Lindholm (holdout) – 22:00, 2:10 SH/G, 1:52 PP/G …………28P, 12 ES

I do agree about Provy being at his cap for ES points. I can't see him putting up much more than he did on a consistent basis.

I don't know about 3 million better, but I do think he's around 1.5 million better than that group. I wouldn't be upset with 8 years 56 million.....

But I'm terrible with contract assessment, trades etc. I really just like watching the best in the world play hockey.
- VladDrag

I do think he has a bit more leverage in negotiations than them, due to usage and draft status combo. That's not saying he's better necessarily (Jones is the only one you can definitively say is better and could be long-term). But I think many of those players are who I'd compare him to from a talent/effectiveness perspective. His raw ES scoring is also higher than his point/60 scoring, due to sheer minutes, so that affects comparing raw numbers, though obviously his minutes will remain high. And in terms of 5v5 vs. ES, as I said he was 3rd in the NHL in non-5v5 ES scoring. Not sure that's not a bit inflated on a consistent level. My main point was he's pretty maxed at ES, so seeing a drop there, even slightly, is perhaps realistic. He doesn't have the PP potential to put him in that 50+ point range I'd agree to the numbers thrown around.

But none of them earned $6 mil even, and only Slavin signed for 7 years. So, if they signed him to 6x6 or 6.5x7/8, that's indeed more. 7 is pushing absolute upper range to me, let alone 8, and it would have to come with 8 years. I just don't like when contract numbers are thrown around based on emotion and hazy assumption.

I think the numbers are close, but I do think Provy is better than that group was at the time they signed their 2nd contracts.

*year before contract signing

Provy – 24:09TOI, 2:50 SH/G, 1:42 PP/G….41P, 36ES
Jones– 22min, 2:03 SH/G, 2:33 PP/G….27P, 15 ES
Slavin –20:59 TOI/G, 3:07SH/G, 0:52 PP/G …….34P, 26 ES
Hamilton –21:20 TOI/G, 1:10 SH/G, 2:30 PP/G ….32P, 27 ES
Lindholm (holdout) – 22:00, 2:10 SH/G, 1:52 PP/G …………28P, 12 ES

I do agree about Provy being at his cap for ES points. I can't see him putting up much more than he did on a consistent basis.

I don't know about 3 million better, but I do think he's around 1.5 million better than that group. I wouldn't be upset with 8 years 56 million.....

But I'm terrible with contract assessment, trades etc. I really just like watching the best in the world play hockey.
- VladDrag

Buying an extra year of free agency will cost more aav. None of those guys are signed for 8

I do think he has a bit more leverage in negotiations than them, due to usage and draft status combo. That's not saying he's better necessarily (Jones is the only one you can definitively say is better and could be long-term). But I think many of those players are who I'd compare him to from a talent/effectiveness perspective. His raw ES scoring is also higher than his point/60 scoring, due to sheer minutes, so that affects comparing raw numbers, though obviously his minutes will remain high. And in terms of 5v5 vs. ES, as I said he was 3rd in the NHL in non-5v5 ES scoring. Not sure that's not a bit inflated on a consistent level. My main point was he's pretty maxed at ES, so seeing a drop there, even slightly, is perhaps realistic. He doesn't have the PP potential to put him in that 50+ point range I'd agree to the numbers thrown around.

But none of them earned $6 mil even, and only Slavin signed for 7 years. So, if they signed him to 6x6 or 6.5x7/8, that's indeed more. 7 is pushing absolute upper range to me, let alone 8, and it would have to come with 8 years. I just don't like when contract numbers are thrown around based on emotion and hazy assumption.
- Mononoke

Comparing raw numbers are always tricky, because anyone can say, 'look at his p/60', and if that's off, someone else might say 'well usage is key here too'. (not to say these are advanced stats), but I am an advanced stats guy, I like to use them in assessments of players. But, when it comes to business, the simple numbers do all the talking for contract negotiations.

I don't think anyone of those players quite compare to what Provy brings to the table. I do think he's a unique player, even if his scoring is unsustainable. But at this stage, I do get 8x8 would be a huge contract for him.

Buying an extra year of free agency will cost more aav. None of those guys are signed for 8
- YuenglingJagr

Yeah, that makes sense, again, don't really care about contracts...mainly because I have no say on what the GM does....

Provorov is not being blocked by an inferior player on the PP. Gostisbehere is one of the top PP defenseman in the entire league. Provorov is not in Gostisbehere's class on the PP.
- MJL

In fairness, Provorov hasn’t been put in the same position on the top PP like Ghost has so it’s unfair to say he’s not in Ghosts class on the PP. Provorov is in much less of a talented PP that sees extensively lower minutes then Ghost. Scoring more goals then Ghost last year without top pairing minutes on the PP is impressive.

Concerning Provy: he's great, but I don't know how you have a reasonable conversation starting with (and it always does) counting how many future Norris trophies he'll win. I'd place my bet on zero right now. I'd bet on zero in the duration of his next contract at least. Doesn't mean he's not a very good player, but some people too easily ignore usage and overrate him relative to his peers.

Provorov won't play PP1 here. And he shouldn't. He put up 41 points playing top 10 ES d-man minutes, playing heavily with the top forwards on the team, all of whom had career years they are likely to not repeat. If you want to project PP2 improving and Ivan adding another 5-7 PP points (which would put him at 10-12 PP points; a good haul for PP2), we're still only talking ~45 points. And while it's easy to assume improvement, we're at the "show me" stage, and it's arguable if he's even the 2nd best PP QB defenseman. His time on PP2 has been rather poor, and I think Sanheim is a better PP QB anyway.

He's clearly a good ES scorer -- 17th in points/60 for >1000 minutes -- who also gets a lot of minutes, but the idea he could regress there, or have bad years, to even any possible PP increase isn't crazy talk to me. Better offensive d-men than him have had it happen. And he scored 9 non-5v5 ES points; also an incredible amount he might not repeat. I think that's 3rd highest behind Pietrangelo and Doughty. At the least, I don't see how he improves from that. My general point being he scored 41 points. How much more are we predicting? It's very likely 40-45 points is his usage ceiling.

I get he's our robotic dude, but he's not Doughty or Hedman (what did he sign for?) or XYZ superstar. Why he even gets compared to those players makes no sense to me, except in overhyping your own players. There is actual precedent: Slavin (7 years x $5.3 mil); Lindholm (6 years x $5.2 mil); Jones (6 years x $5.4 mil); Hamilton (6 years x $5.75 mil).....you get my point. He's not almost $3 mil better than all of them. And you don't pay Norris level money, at or near $8 mil, to an RFA off their ELC unless you feel confident he will blow past it within a few years. I think this is mostly what we get with Ivan, just improving within that in the metrics -- for which he was actually rather reliant on $4.5 mil Gostisbehere. I'd be very curious to see what Werenski gets because he's THE best comparable. And frankly, his scoring upside is probably higher, but if Seth Jones eats away his PP usage, like he did this year, than it gets even more interesting a comparison.
- Mononoke

I don’t think he gets 8 but ekblad is a pretty good comp right? Certainly his agent can point to that deal. That’s the one that scares me. I know #1 overall plays into it but it’s tough to gauge how much

In fairness, Provorov hasn’t been put in the same position on the top PP like Ghost has so it’s unfair to say he’s not in Ghosts class on the PP. Provorov is in much less of a talented PP that sees extensively lower minutes then Ghost. Scoring more goals then Ghost last year without top pairing minutes on the PP is impressive.
- Buzzo

I disagree. It's not at all unfair. You can see how they react and how they handle the puck and how they view the ice that there is a significant difference between the two on the PP. Gostisbehere has more of that kind if skill set. Provorov's goal scoring at Es comes from an ability to fill holes late on the rush and making good shots.

I have no doubt that Provorov's PP production would go up and that he would improve as a PP defenseman if he played on the top unit but it's clear that he does not at this point have the same skill level on the PP that Gostisbehere does.

It's ridiculous to me that people are talking about Provy and future Norris trophies.
Thankfully the last few pages have just been fapping and not that kind of talk.

just give the championship to the warriors
with boogie cousins no one can stop them

I disagree. It's not at all unfair. You can see how they react and how they handle the puck and how they view the ice that there is a significant difference between the two on the PP. Gostisbehere has more of that kind if skill set. Provorov's goal scoring at Es comes from an ability to fill holes late on the rush and making good shots.

I have no doubt that Provorov's PP production would go up and that he would improve as a PP defenseman if he played on the top unit but it's clear that he does not at this point have the same skill level on the PP that Gostisbehere does.
- MJL

Ghost is a top 5 arguably top 3 pp qb.

For a guy who literally vanished when he wasn't on a line with G and Coots, that's a lot of money. That's Vinnie money. If you won't sign de Haan because he wants 4 years, no way you give TK 4 years. 3 years $2.35M. He is maybe worth Weise money. By the end of the year, he will be stuck on the third line, playing 10 minutes and a minus player.
- hockeyal

We know Hakstol now posts on HB.

Ghost is a top 5 arguably top 3 pp qb.
- Tfaehner

Absolutely. Among the elite in the league at that role.