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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Development Cap Wrapup
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Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Jul 3 @ 6:26 PM ET
Bout to drop a Provorov truth bomb that's the end all be all of discussion. Could've saved y'all 7 pages.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 3 @ 6:26 PM ET

- Giroux_Is_God


Is that a young Dwyane Wade?
Dkos
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Gritty, PA
Joined: 01.15.2007

Jul 3 @ 6:27 PM ET
I'll repeat. Nobody, including TSN knows completely who is or isn't in on trade talks for a player. They are a reputable source but nobody can say with certainty based on their report who is or isn't involved.
- MJL

Thank god you cleared that up.
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Jul 3 @ 6:28 PM ET
Concerning Provy: he's great, but I don't know how you have a reasonable conversation starting with (and it always does) counting how many future Norris trophies he'll win. I'd place my bet on zero right now. I'd bet on zero in the duration of his next contract at least. Doesn't mean he's not a very good player, but some people too easily ignore usage and overrate him relative to his peers.

Provorov won't play PP1 here. And he shouldn't. He put up 41 points playing top 10 ES d-man minutes, playing heavily with the top forwards on the team, all of whom had career years they are likely to not repeat. If you want to project PP2 improving and Ivan adding another 5-7 PP points (which would put him at 10-12 PP points; a good haul for PP2), we're still only talking ~45 points. And while it's easy to assume improvement, we're at the "show me" stage, and it's arguable if he's even the 2nd best PP QB defenseman. His time on PP2 has been rather poor, and I think Sanheim is a better PP QB anyway.

He's clearly a good ES scorer -- 17th in points/60 for >1000 minutes -- who also gets a lot of minutes, but the idea he could regress there, or have bad years, to even any possible PP increase isn't crazy talk to me. Better offensive d-men than him have had it happen. And he scored 9 non-5v5 ES points; also an incredible amount he might not repeat. I think that's 3rd highest behind Pietrangelo and Doughty. At the least, I don't see how he improves from that. My general point being he scored 41 points. How much more are we predicting? It's very likely 40-45 points is his usage ceiling.

I get he's our robotic dude, but he's not Doughty or Hedman (what did he sign for?) or XYZ superstar. Why he even gets compared to those players makes no sense to me, except in overhyping your own players. There is actual precedent: Slavin (7 years x $5.3 mil); Lindholm (6 years x $5.2 mil); Jones (6 years x $5.4 mil); Hamilton (6 years x $5.75 mil).....you get my point. He's not almost $3 mil better than all of them. And you don't pay Norris level money, at or near $8 mil, to an RFA off their ELC unless you feel confident he will blow past it within a few years. I think this is mostly what we get with Ivan, just improving within that in the metrics -- for which he was actually rather reliant on $4.5 mil Gostisbehere. I'd be very curious to see what Werenski gets because he's THE best comparable. And frankly, his scoring upside is probably higher, but if Seth Jones eats away his PP usage, like he did this year, than it gets even more interesting a comparison.
Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

Jul 3 @ 6:29 PM ET
Is that a young Dwyane Wade?
- PhillySportsGuy

I believe it is
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 3 @ 6:33 PM ET
Concerning Provy: he's great, but I don't know how you have a reasonable conversation starting with (and it always does) counting how many future Norris trophies he'll win. I'd place my bet on zero right now. I'd bet on zero in the duration of his next contract at least. Doesn't mean he's not a very good player, but some people too easily ignore usage and overrate him relative to his peers.

Provorov won't play PP1 here. And he shouldn't. He put up 41 points playing top 10 ES d-man minutes, playing heavily with the top forwards on the team, all of whom had career years they are likely to not repeat. If you want to project PP2 improving and Ivan adding another 5-7 PP points (which would put him at 10-12 PP points; a good haul for PP2), we're still only talking ~45 points. And while it's easy to assume improvement, we're at the "show me" stage, and it's arguable if he's even the 2nd best PP QB defenseman. His time on PP2 has been rather poor, and I think Sanheim is a better PP QB anyway.

He's clearly a good ES scorer -- 17th in points/60 for >1000 minutes -- who also gets a lot of minutes, but the idea he could regress there, or have bad years, to even any possible PP increase isn't crazy talk to me. Better offensive d-men than him have had it happen. And he scored 9 non-5v5 ES points; also an incredible amount he might not repeat. I think that's 3rd highest behind Pietrangelo and Doughty. At the least, I don't see how he improves from that. My general point being he scored 41 points. How much more are we predicting? It's very likely 40-45 points is his usage ceiling.

I get he's our robotic dude, but he's not Doughty or Hedman (what did he sign for?) or XYZ superstar. Why he even gets compared to those players makes no sense to me, except in overhyping your own players. There is actual precedent: Slavin (7 years x $5.3 mil); Lindholm (6 years x $5.2 mil); Jones (6 years x $5.4 mil); Hamilton (6 years x $5.75 mil).....you get my point. He's not almost $3 mil better than all of them. And you don't pay Norris level money, at or near $8 mil, to an RFA off their ELC unless you feel confident he will blow past it within a few years. I think this is mostly what we get with Ivan, just improving within that in the metrics -- for which he was actually rather reliant on $4.5 mil Gostisbehere. I'd be very curious to see what Werenski gets because he's THE best comparable. And frankly, his scoring upside is probably higher, but if Seth Jones eats away his PP usage, like he did this year, than it gets even more interesting a comparison.

- Mononoke


If you didn’t hate the Flyers, you’d know he is the next Lidstrom
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Jul 3 @ 6:34 PM ET
Concerning Provy: he's great, but I don't know how you have a reasonable conversation starting with (and it always does) counting how many future Norris trophies he'll win. I'd place my bet on zero right now. I'd bet on zero in the duration of his next contract at least. Doesn't mean he's not a very good player, but some people too easily ignore usage and overrate him relative to his peers.

Provorov won't play PP1 here. And he shouldn't. He put up 41 points playing top 10 ES d-man minutes, playing heavily with the top forwards on the team, all of whom had career years they are likely to not repeat. If you want to project PP2 improving and Ivan adding another 5-7 PP points (which would put him at 10-12 PP points; a good haul for PP2), we're still only talking ~45 points. And while it's easy to assume improvement, we're at the "show me" stage, and it's arguable if he's even the 2nd best PP QB defenseman. His time on PP2 has been rather poor, and I think Sanheim is a better PP QB anyway.

He's clearly a good ES scorer -- 17th in points/60 for >1000 minutes -- who also gets a lot of minutes, but the idea he could regress there, or have bad years, to even any possible PP increase isn't crazy talk to me. Better offensive d-men than him have had it happen. And he scored 9 non-5v5 ES points; also an incredible amount he might not repeat. I think that's 3rd highest behind Pietrangelo and Doughty. At the least, I don't see how he improves from that. My general point being he scored 41 points. How much more are we predicting? It's very likely 40-45 points is his usage ceiling.

I get he's our robotic dude, but he's not Doughty or Hedman (what did he sign for?) or XYZ superstar. Why he even gets compared to those players makes no sense to me, except in overhyping your own players. There is actual precedent: Slavin (7 years x $5.3 mil); Lindholm (6 years x $5.2 mil); Jones (6 years x $5.4 mil); Hamilton (6 years x $5.75 mil).....you get my point. He's not almost $3 mil better than all of them. And you don't pay Norris level money, at or near $8 mil, to an RFA off their ELC unless you feel confident he will blow past it within a few years. I think this is mostly what we get with Ivan, just improving within that in the metrics -- for which he was actually rather reliant on $4.5 mil Gostisbehere. I'd be very curious to see what Werenski gets because he's THE best comparable. And frankly, his scoring upside is probably higher, but if Seth Jones eats away his PP usage, like he did this year, than it gets even more interesting a comparison.

- Mononoke

Too long; didn't fap.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 3 @ 6:34 PM ET
I believe it is
- Giroux_Is_God


Prime Dwyane was great
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 3 @ 6:35 PM ET
Concerning Provy: he's great, but I don't know how you have a reasonable conversation starting with (and it always does) counting how many future Norris trophies he'll win. I'd place my bet on zero right now. I'd bet on zero in the duration of his next contract at least. Doesn't mean he's not a very good player, but some people too easily ignore usage and overrate him relative to his peers.

Provorov won't play PP1 here. And he shouldn't. He put up 41 points playing top 10 ES d-man minutes, playing heavily with the top forwards on the team, all of whom had career years they are likely to not repeat. If you want to project PP2 improving and Ivan adding another 5-7 PP points (which would put him at 10-12 PP points; a good haul for PP2), we're still only talking ~45 points. And while it's easy to assume improvement, we're at the "show me" stage, and it's arguable if he's even the 2nd best PP QB defenseman. His time on PP2 has been rather poor, and I think Sanheim is a better PP QB anyway.

He's clearly a good ES scorer -- 17th in points/60 for >1000 minutes -- who also gets a lot of minutes, but the idea he could regress there, or have bad years, to even any possible PP increase isn't crazy talk to me. Better offensive d-men than him have had it happen. And he scored 9 non-5v5 ES points; also an incredible amount he might not repeat. I think that's 3rd highest behind Pietrangelo and Doughty. At the least, I don't see how he improves from that. My general point being he scored 41 points. How much more are we predicting? It's very likely 40-45 points is his usage ceiling.

I get he's our robotic dude, but he's not Doughty or Hedman (what did he sign for?) or XYZ superstar. Why he even gets compared to those players makes no sense to me, except in overhyping your own players. There is actual precedent: Slavin (7 years x $5.3 mil); Lindholm (6 years x $5.2 mil); Jones (6 years x $5.4 mil); Hamilton (6 years x $5.75 mil).....you get my point. He's not almost $3 mil better than all of them. And you don't pay Norris level money, at or near $8 mil, to an RFA off their ELC unless you feel confident he will blow past it within a few years. I think this is mostly what we get with Ivan, just improving within that in the metrics -- for which he was actually rather reliant on $4.5 mil Gostisbehere. I'd be very curious to see what Werenski gets because he's THE best comparable. And frankly, his scoring upside is probably higher, but if Seth Jones eats away his PP usage, like he did this year, than it gets even more interesting a comparison.

- Mononoke


Most of that is true. The point of signing him to an 8 year deal at around the 7-8M a year mark is to save down the line. It has merit. Provorov, if he doesn't eventually see PP1 time will never likely have enough sexy stats to appease the Norris trophy voters but he's very likely to become one of the best ES defenseman in the league.
I disagree however that he was reliant on Gostisbehere.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jul 3 @ 6:35 PM ET
I believe it is
- Giroux_Is_God

I’m fairly certain that’s either will smith or rihanna
THE EVIL WITHIN
Location: NJ
Joined: 11.20.2017

Jul 3 @ 6:38 PM ET

- Giroux_Is_God

Good luck in LA i guess you turned down the mansion in North Philly
Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

Jul 3 @ 6:40 PM ET
Concerning Provy: he's great, but I don't know how you have a reasonable conversation starting with (and it always does) counting how many future Norris trophies he'll win. I'd place my bet on zero right now. I'd bet on zero in the duration of his next contract at least. Doesn't mean he's not a very good player, but some people too easily ignore usage and overrate him relative to his peers.

Provorov won't play PP1 here. And he shouldn't. He put up 41 points playing top 10 ES d-man minutes, playing heavily with the top forwards on the team, all of whom had career years they are likely to not repeat. If you want to project PP2 improving and Ivan adding another 5-7 PP points (which would put him at 10-12 PP points; a good haul for PP2), we're still only talking ~45 points. And while it's easy to assume improvement, we're at the "show me" stage, and it's arguable if he's even the 2nd best PP QB defenseman. His time on PP2 has been rather poor, and I think Sanheim is a better PP QB anyway.

He's clearly a good ES scorer -- 17th in points/60 for >1000 minutes -- who also gets a lot of minutes, but the idea he could regress there, or have bad years, to even any possible PP increase isn't crazy talk to me. Better offensive d-men than him have had it happen. And he scored 9 non-5v5 ES points; also an incredible amount he might not repeat. I think that's 3rd highest behind Pietrangelo and Doughty. At the least, I don't see how he improves from that. My general point being he scored 41 points. How much more are we predicting? It's very likely 40-45 points is his usage ceiling.

I get he's our robotic dude, but he's not Doughty or Hedman (what did he sign for?) or XYZ superstar. Why he even gets compared to those players makes no sense to me, except in overhyping your own players. There is actual precedent: Slavin (7 years x $5.3 mil); Lindholm (6 years x $5.2 mil); Jones (6 years x $5.4 mil); Hamilton (6 years x $5.75 mil).....you get my point. He's not almost $3 mil better than all of them. And you don't pay Norris level money, at or near $8 mil, to an RFA off their ELC unless you feel confident he will blow past it within a few years. I think this is mostly what we get with Ivan, just improving within that in the metrics -- for which he was actually rather reliant on $4.5 mil Gostisbehere. I'd be very curious to see what Werenski gets because he's THE best comparable. And frankly, his scoring upside is probably higher, but if Seth Jones eats away his PP usage, like he did this year, than it gets even more interesting a comparison.

- Mononoke

I think Provorov is going to be a tier 1b dman at his best. Top notch D and good-great offense but not elite scoring but has the ability to control a game. And that is a ok with me.

As far as Norris trophies go he'll have trouble winning them as you pointed out because he doesn't/probably won't put up enough points or play on the PP. Again, does that mean he's bad? (frank) no. But we know how the Norris goes to the flashiest defenseman usually. I'm just trying to be realistic.

Sure glad the kid is a flyer. Definitely a gem.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jul 3 @ 6:41 PM ET
VGK, much more in need of Karlsson, declined a supposed Karlsson deal which was 2 1sts and Shea Theodore. And Ottawa is desperate to offload Ryan too, because Melnyk is a cheap (frank), which is killing return value.
- Mononoke

I heard they balked at Cody glass
VladDrag
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: West Chester, PA
Joined: 01.13.2009

Jul 3 @ 6:42 PM ET
Concerning Provy: he's great, but I don't know how you have a reasonable conversation starting with (and it always does) counting how many future Norris trophies he'll win. I'd place my bet on zero right now. I'd bet on zero in the duration of his next contract at least. Doesn't mean he's not a very good player, but some people too easily ignore usage and overrate him relative to his peers.

Provorov won't play PP1 here. And he shouldn't. He put up 41 points playing top 10 ES d-man minutes, playing heavily with the top forwards on the team, all of whom had career years they are likely to not repeat. If you want to project PP2 improving and Ivan adding another 5-7 PP points (which would put him at 10-12 PP points; a good haul for PP2), we're still only talking ~45 points. And while it's easy to assume improvement, we're at the "show me" stage, and it's arguable if he's even the 2nd best PP QB defenseman. His time on PP2 has been rather poor, and I think Sanheim is a better PP QB anyway.

He's clearly a good ES scorer -- 17th in points/60 for >1000 minutes -- who also gets a lot of minutes, but the idea he could regress there, or have bad years, to even any possible PP increase isn't crazy talk to me. Better offensive d-men than him have had it happen. And he scored 9 non-5v5 ES points; also an incredible amount he might not repeat. I think that's 3rd highest behind Pietrangelo and Doughty. At the least, I don't see how he improves from that. My general point being he scored 41 points. How much more are we predicting? It's very likely 40-45 points is his usage ceiling.

I get he's our robotic dude, but he's not Doughty or Hedman (what did he sign for?) or XYZ superstar. Why he even gets compared to those players makes no sense to me, except in overhyping your own players. There is actual precedent: Slavin (7 years x $5.3 mil); Lindholm (6 years x $5.2 mil); Jones (6 years x $5.4 mil); Hamilton (6 years x $5.75 mil).....you get my point. He's not almost $3 mil better than all of them. And you don't pay Norris level money, at or near $8 mil, to an RFA off their ELC unless you feel confident he will blow past it within a few years. I think this is mostly what we get with Ivan, just improving within that in the metrics -- for which he was actually rather reliant on $4.5 mil Gostisbehere. I'd be very curious to see what Werenski gets because he's THE best comparable. And frankly, his scoring upside is probably higher, but if Seth Jones eats away his PP usage, like he did this year, than it gets even more interesting a comparison.

- Mononoke


TL;DR, please.

Also -- Did you really write this in 2 mins, or is this a copy and paste from a previous post...
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Jul 3 @ 6:42 PM ET
I would do that, yes.
- bmeltzer

Agreed, works for me
THE EVIL WITHIN
Location: NJ
Joined: 11.20.2017

Jul 3 @ 6:44 PM ET
I think Provorov is going to be a tier 1b dman at his best. Top notch D and good-great offense but not elite scoring but has the ability to control a game. And that is a ok with me.

As far as Norris trophies go he'll have trouble winning them as you pointed out because he doesn't/probably won't put up enough points or play on the PP. Again, does that mean he's bad? (frank) no. But we know how the Norris goes to the flashiest defenseman usually. I'm just trying to be realistic.

Sure glad the kid is a flyer. Definitely a gem.

- Giroux_Is_God

That is why they are all in on Karlsson and it will happend when sens eat 2-3 mill of the RYAN cap hit
bird_dog_pa
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 07.05.2011

Jul 3 @ 7:03 PM ET
Concerning Provy: he's great, but I don't know how you have a reasonable conversation starting with (and it always does) counting how many future Norris trophies he'll win. I'd place my bet on zero right now. I'd bet on zero in the duration of his next contract at least. Doesn't mean he's not a very good player, but some people too easily ignore usage and overrate him relative to his peers.

Provorov won't play PP1 here. And he shouldn't. He put up 41 points playing top 10 ES d-man minutes, playing heavily with the top forwards on the team, all of whom had career years they are likely to not repeat. If you want to project PP2 improving and Ivan adding another 5-7 PP points (which would put him at 10-12 PP points; a good haul for PP2), we're still only talking ~45 points. And while it's easy to assume improvement, we're at the "show me" stage, and it's arguable if he's even the 2nd best PP QB defenseman. His time on PP2 has been rather poor, and I think Sanheim is a better PP QB anyway.

He's clearly a good ES scorer -- 17th in points/60 for >1000 minutes -- who also gets a lot of minutes, but the idea he could regress there, or have bad years, to even any possible PP increase isn't crazy talk to me. Better offensive d-men than him have had it happen. And he scored 9 non-5v5 ES points; also an incredible amount he might not repeat. I think that's 3rd highest behind Pietrangelo and Doughty. At the least, I don't see how he improves from that. My general point being he scored 41 points. How much more are we predicting? It's very likely 40-45 points is his usage ceiling.

I get he's our robotic dude, but he's not Doughty or Hedman (what did he sign for?) or XYZ superstar. Why he even gets compared to those players makes no sense to me, except in overhyping your own players. There is actual precedent: Slavin (7 years x $5.3 mil); Lindholm (6 years x $5.2 mil); Jones (6 years x $5.4 mil); Hamilton (6 years x $5.75 mil).....you get my point. He's not almost $3 mil better than all of them. And you don't pay Norris level money, at or near $8 mil, to an RFA off their ELC unless you feel confident he will blow past it within a few years. I think this is mostly what we get with Ivan, just improving within that in the metrics -- for which he was actually rather reliant on $4.5 mil Gostisbehere. I'd be very curious to see what Werenski gets because he's THE best comparable. And frankly, his scoring upside is probably higher, but if Seth Jones eats away his PP usage, like he did this year, than it gets even more interesting a comparison.

- Mononoke


Sadly the chance Provy wins a Norris isn’t that great for reasons you pointed out. I will say when Provy has his A game dialed in he crashes the net like a forward that’s impressive. He also has the ability to take over games similar to Doughty although not as frequent.
With his work ethic and offseason regime I wouldn’t rule him out of being one of the top d men in the league for years.
17 goals in his second years where many believe he could have been better is quite an achievement.
In regards to the Flyers I don’t see a need for EK and the money and assets needed to get him make it precariously bad in cap terms by he end of the contract.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jul 3 @ 7:04 PM ET
Concerning Provy: he's great, but I don't know how you have a reasonable conversation starting with (and it always does) counting how many future Norris trophies he'll win. I'd place my bet on zero right now. I'd bet on zero in the duration of his next contract at least. Doesn't mean he's not a very good player, but some people too easily ignore usage and overrate him relative to his peers.

Provorov won't play PP1 here. And he shouldn't. He put up 41 points playing top 10 ES d-man minutes, playing heavily with the top forwards on the team, all of whom had career years they are likely to not repeat. If you want to project PP2 improving and Ivan adding another 5-7 PP points (which would put him at 10-12 PP points; a good haul for PP2), we're still only talking ~45 points. And while it's easy to assume improvement, we're at the "show me" stage, and it's arguable if he's even the 2nd best PP QB defenseman. His time on PP2 has been rather poor, and I think Sanheim is a better PP QB anyway.

He's clearly a good ES scorer -- 17th in points/60 for >1000 minutes -- who also gets a lot of minutes, but the idea he could regress there, or have bad years, to even any possible PP increase isn't crazy talk to me. Better offensive d-men than him have had it happen. And he scored 9 non-5v5 ES points; also an incredible amount he might not repeat. I think that's 3rd highest behind Pietrangelo and Doughty. At the least, I don't see how he improves from that. My general point being he scored 41 points. How much more are we predicting? It's very likely 40-45 points is his usage ceiling.

I get he's our robotic dude, but he's not Doughty or Hedman (what did he sign for?) or XYZ superstar. Why he even gets compared to those players makes no sense to me, except in overhyping your own players. There is actual precedent: Slavin (7 years x $5.3 mil); Lindholm (6 years x $5.2 mil); Jones (6 years x $5.4 mil); Hamilton (6 years x $5.75 mil).....you get my point. He's not almost $3 mil better than all of them. And you don't pay Norris level money, at or near $8 mil, to an RFA off their ELC unless you feel confident he will blow past it within a few years. I think this is mostly what we get with Ivan, just improving within that in the metrics -- for which he was actually rather reliant on $4.5 mil Gostisbehere. I'd be very curious to see what Werenski gets because he's THE best comparable. And frankly, his scoring upside is probably higher, but if Seth Jones eats away his PP usage, like he did this year, than it gets even more interesting a comparison.

- Mononoke


I appreciate that you cared enough to write this.

Oh and I think they should sign Provy before Werenski. I think that might drive up the price
hockeyal
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.22.2017

Jul 3 @ 7:08 PM ET
I wouldn't go 8 years on Konecny.

5 at 5 seems like something that would be fair.

- J35Bacher


For a guy who literally vanished when he wasn't on a line with G and Coots, that's a lot of money. That's Vinnie money. If you won't sign de Haan because he wants 4 years, no way you give TK 4 years. 3 years $2.35M. He is maybe worth Weise money. By the end of the year, he will be stuck on the third line, playing 10 minutes and a minus player.
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Jul 3 @ 7:15 PM ET
Congrats to Simmer and his nuptuals this past weekend.....and his new deal in philly....7 million per...not sure of term.
hockeyal
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.22.2017

Jul 3 @ 7:16 PM ET
Concerning Provy: he's great, but I don't know how you have a reasonable conversation starting with (and it always does) counting how many future Norris trophies he'll win. I'd place my bet on zero right now. I'd bet on zero in the duration of his next contract at least. Doesn't mean he's not a very good player, but some people too easily ignore usage and overrate him relative to his peers.

Provorov won't play PP1 here. And he shouldn't. He put up 41 points playing top 10 ES d-man minutes, playing heavily with the top forwards on the team, all of whom had career years they are likely to not repeat. If you want to project PP2 improving and Ivan adding another 5-7 PP points (which would put him at 10-12 PP points; a good haul for PP2), we're still only talking ~45 points. And while it's easy to assume improvement, we're at the "show me" stage, and it's arguable if he's even the 2nd best PP QB defenseman. His time on PP2 has been rather poor, and I think Sanheim is a better PP QB anyway.

He's clearly a good ES scorer -- 17th in points/60 for >1000 minutes -- who also gets a lot of minutes, but the idea he could regress there, or have bad years, to even any possible PP increase isn't crazy talk to me. Better offensive d-men than him have had it happen. And he scored 9 non-5v5 ES points; also an incredible amount he might not repeat. I think that's 3rd highest behind Pietrangelo and Doughty. At the least, I don't see how he improves from that. My general point being he scored 41 points. How much more are we predicting? It's very likely 40-45 points is his usage ceiling.

I get he's our robotic dude, but he's not Doughty or Hedman (what did he sign for?) or XYZ superstar. Why he even gets compared to those players makes no sense to me, except in overhyping your own players. There is actual precedent: Slavin (7 years x $5.3 mil); Lindholm (6 years x $5.2 mil); Jones (6 years x $5.4 mil); Hamilton (6 years x $5.75 mil).....you get my point. He's not almost $3 mil better than all of them. And you don't pay Norris level money, at or near $8 mil, to an RFA off their ELC unless you feel confident he will blow past it within a few years. I think this is mostly what we get with Ivan, just improving within that in the metrics -- for which he was actually rather reliant on $4.5 mil Gostisbehere. I'd be very curious to see what Werenski gets because he's THE best comparable. And frankly, his scoring upside is probably higher, but if Seth Jones eats away his PP usage, like he did this year, than it gets even more interesting a comparison.

- Mononoke


Unless the Flyers sign Karlsson, Provy will be the Flyers #1 Dman for years to come. He is not running PP1 only because he is being blocked by an inferior player AND the fact that the Flyers need him to log heavy PK and 5v5 minutes which that other player is unsuited for. Unlike literally anyone else on the team, he can play 200ft., and when he has a solid partner, he is an offensive threat on every shift. The problem is that the Flyers have very few stable defenders.
bird_dog_pa
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 07.05.2011

Jul 3 @ 7:18 PM ET
For a guy who literally vanished when he wasn't on a line with G and Coots, that's a lot of money. That's Vinnie money. If you won't sign de Haan because he wants 4 years, no way you give TK 4 years. 3 years $2.35M. He is maybe worth Weise money. By the end of the year, he will be stuck on the third line, playing 10 minutes and a minus player.
- hockeyal


TK didn’t literally vanish he was usually the best player on the ice. When you have zero help it’s hard to do much.
Without a doubt TK and his speed helped G and Coots.
He is a very good player not a star.
hockeyal
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.22.2017

Jul 3 @ 7:18 PM ET
Since Karlsson is the best offensive defenseman in the NHL and the Flyers would still have Provorov and the still-developing Sanheim to provide offense from the back end, I would think that Ghost would a better trade fit. He's 3 years younger than Karlsson, far more established as an NHL offensive contributor than Sanheim, and would give Ottawa a "name" return along with whatever assets go along.

There aren't many players I'd consider Gostisbehere expendable to acquire but Karlsson would be one.

- bmeltzer


Spot on.
hockeyal
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.22.2017

Jul 3 @ 7:20 PM ET
I would do that, yes.
- bmeltzer


Ghost, TK, and a second.
Mononoke
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I'd do anything to get you humans out of my forest!
Joined: 07.19.2015

Jul 3 @ 7:22 PM ET
TL;DR, please.

Also -- Did you really write this in 2 mins, or is this a copy and paste from a previous post...

- VladDrag


I totally copy and pasted it. I ain't writing that poop brand spankin new for hockeybuzz.

Also, I just wanted to impress PSG.
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