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Forums :: Blog World :: Trevor Shackles: Sign and Trade for Karlsson?
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Maverick1818
Ottawa Senators
Location: PEI
Joined: 02.06.2015

Jul 4 @ 12:52 AM ET
A 30 year old forward who put up 19 points last year...when healthy just barely puts up 30 points making 3.25m a season who has terrible possession metrics but is labeled as a "character guy".

Please explain to me how a 3.5m aging bad production player isnt a cap dump when you can get that sort of production and more out of 20 and 21 year old ELC players.

You are so delusional when it comes to play analysis, stats exist for a reason and 3.5m border line 3rd line player is a cap dump. And before you say hes something more. He spent 45% of his time on the 3rd line and 38% of his time on the 4th line. And thats on a sens team that has no depth.

Its funny how usage stats track all that now and once again prove you wrong bc your Sens homer goggles refuse to see what the rest of the NHL sees

- DDM-Coga

I agree he isn't going to be a star scorer. But he certainly isn't a cap dump. If he was healthy and given 2nd line minutes, the guy could be a 15 - 20 goal scorer. Just look a few years ago when they put him on the second line with Stone and he netted 25 goals. On top of that he can kill penalties, fight and is one of the best leaders in the room.

I think he is a bit over paid but I wouldn't consider him a cap dump by any means. Yes 19 points last year isn't great but considering he played hurt most of the year, wasn't getting 2nd line minutes and the entire team was a dumpster fire, I'd say he did fine.
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Jul 4 @ 2:56 AM ET
A 30 year old forward who put up 19 points last year...when healthy just barely puts up 30 points making 3.25m a season who has terrible possession metrics but is labeled as a "character guy".

Please explain to me how a 3.5m aging bad production player isnt a cap dump when you can get that sort of production and more out of 20 and 21 year old ELC players.

You are so delusional when it comes to play analysis, stats exist for a reason and 3.5m border line 3rd line player is a cap dump. And before you say hes something more. He spent 45% of his time on the 3rd line and 38% of his time on the 4th line. And thats on a sens team that has no depth.

Its funny how usage stats track all that now and once again prove you wrong bc your Sens homer goggles refuse to see what the rest of the NHL sees

- DDM-Coga

First of all, for once in your life try to state an opinion without writing a backhanded insult somewhere in it (towards the end with yours)

Bobby Ryan isn't a 7+ million player. Everyone knows that. That said, just last year he was one of the best players when it mattered most. He showed up BIG time in the playoffs and proved he can still play hockey. I think if he's playing 2nd line in a depth role, play on the 2nd PP or even on 1st PP, the guy will get you 20g with 50p, I truly believe that. He's worth 4-5m in my books but is in a horrible spot. This all stems with having 1 hand, look at that injury history before you start going crazy over #s. See I don't watch Avs games but I do watch Sens games; that's why the eye test will always beat out stats.

Zack Smith is another guy who had a horrible year; it's not because he's lost his abilities or due to age. No doubt on a team like tampa he's thriving putting up 15-20g, PK / 3rd line checker.
Panzer_IVA
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 01.02.2018

Jul 4 @ 7:49 AM ET
Like I said, loyalty is a big thing with me. That's the reason I don't like Alfie anymore after he completely gave us on this team publicly twice. Karlsson is looking to have that same unloyal attitude.

If he resigns and proves me wrong, I'll be the first one cheering for him, but he's gotta prove it first.

- Maverick1818

Alfie left the first time because, on his last contract, we didn't offer him anything of substance after years of him loyally taking pay cuts and hometown discounts. He was making $1M on his last year with us. When Melnyk yanked his chain one last time, he walked away. I, for one, do not blame him at all for leaving. The Sens showed him great disrespect at that time.

He then left a second time under murky circumstances. It seems he wasn't keen on having his suggestions overridden by, you guessed it, EM. The problem is clearly at the top.

If OTT did indeed offer EK a 8 x 10M contract, then I think it's a fair offer right up to the point where Tavares and Doughty were given multiyear, $11M/year contracts. When those got signed, it showed a clear baseline of what that kind of talent was worth, and OTT should've readjusted their offer accordingly.

That being said, it's possible EK knew from the get-go he no longer wanted to stay here for whatever reason.
Bobby Ryan isn't a 7+ million player. Everyone knows that... ...He's worth 4-5m in my books but is in a horrible spot. This all stems with having 1 hand, look at that injury history before you start going crazy over #s.
- AlfieisKing

That guys is running out of fingers to break.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 4 @ 8:49 AM ET
Read the tweet by Stevenson suggesting Dallas was putting a push on for Karlsson. Dallas wants deal done within 24 hours. They suggest Honka as key piece in their offer. Dorion says Miro Heiskanen.

I think this is just a tease. Can’t see Dallas putting a package that can rival Yzerman’s options. Heiskanen might be equal to Sergachev or Foote but Tampa has more secondary prospects they can package.

The 24 hr time limit tells you that DALLAs is taking a shot in the dark.
Maverick1818
Ottawa Senators
Location: PEI
Joined: 02.06.2015

Jul 4 @ 9:32 AM ET
Alfie left the first time because, on his last contract, we didn't offer him anything of substance after years of him loyally taking pay cuts and hometown discounts. He was making $1M on his last year with us. When Melnyk yanked his chain one last time, he walked away. I, for one, do not blame him at all for leaving. The Sens showed him great disrespect at that time.

He then left a second time under murky circumstances. It seems he wasn't keen on having his suggestions overridden by, you guessed it, EM. The problem is clearly at the top.

If OTT did indeed offer EK a 8 x 10M contract, then I think it's a fair offer right up to the point where Tavares and Doughty were given multiyear, $11M/year contracts. When those got signed, it showed a clear baseline of what that kind of talent was worth, and OTT should've readjusted their offer accordingly.

That being said, it's possible EK knew from the get-go he no longer wanted to stay here for whatever reason.

That guys is running out of fingers to break.

- Panzer_IVA


First time he gave up on the Sens was in his last year with Ottawa in the playoffs when he was asked if the Sens could come back in their series and he said "Probably not".

Second was, Alfie's contracts were front end loaded. He certainly got paid a lot of money. But the thought was that he was going to retire. That's why he was paid one million in his last year. Then he told the team he was going to take the summer to decide if he wanted to retire or not. BM left a very clear time line in his press conference that year.
He called Alfie three times and all three times Alfie said he was thinking about retiring and wouldn't go anywhere but Ottawa. BM even said in his press conference that EM told him he had a "blank cheque" for Alfie and to spend whatever it took to get him signed. Then on BM's last call he again stated in his press conference that he heard a rumor of Alfie going to the Red Wings. He said he asked Alfie flat out and Alfie denied it, then offered a sign and trade if he didn't like how the team was turning out and Alfie again said he was thinking about retiring. Then without notice he took off to the Red Wings.

Third time was when he left his management roll without notice and unexpectedly.

I agree that was a bit merky, but he was still giving up on the team just the same.

So far, the best bit of leadership I've seen from him in a long time was an interview the other day where Alfie publicly said Karlsson belongs in Ottawa and he hopes he resigns. I bet he regrets what he did when he left. I've lost a lot of respect for Alfie over the last few years but that was a classy move IMO

Karlsson claimed at the end of the year that he loves Ottawa and wanted to be here his entire career and see us win a cup. I get that was likely just a bunch of BS and press talk to save face. But actions speak louder than words and the only actions I've seen is the Sens gave up Hoffman for basically nothing in return just to keep Karlsson happy and now Karlsson is screwing them over... Not very Loyal
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Jul 4 @ 9:44 AM ET
First of all, for once in your life try to state an opinion without writing a backhanded insult somewhere in it (towards the end with yours)

Bobby Ryan isn't a 7+ million player. Everyone knows that. That said, just last year he was one of the best players when it mattered most. He showed up BIG time in the playoffs and proved he can still play hockey. I think if he's playing 2nd line in a depth role, play on the 2nd PP or even on 1st PP, the guy will get you 20g with 50p, I truly believe that. He's worth 4-5m in my books but is in a horrible spot. This all stems with having 1 hand, look at that injury history before you start going crazy over #s. See I don't watch Avs games but I do watch Sens games; that's why the eye test will always beat out stats.

Zack Smith is another guy who had a horrible year; it's not because he's lost his abilities or due to age. No doubt on a team like tampa he's thriving putting up 15-20g, PK / 3rd line checker.

- AlfieisKing

Pretty sure the stats showed the likelihood of this season’s collapse, where Sens’ fans eye tests were showing a cup run.


Bobby Ryan isn’t a 50 point player, he’s a 100 point player... in that he’s probably got 100 points left in him before his contract and career are officially over.
Maverick1818
Ottawa Senators
Location: PEI
Joined: 02.06.2015

Jul 4 @ 9:56 AM ET
Pretty sure the stats showed the likelihood of this season’s collapse, where Sens’ fans eye tests were showing a cup run.


Bobby Ryan isn’t a 50 point player, he’s a 100 point player... in that he’s probably got 100 points left in him before his contract and career are officially over.

- Feeling Glucky?

That's not true at all. If you look at the Sens before the trip away to play the Avs twice. They were projected to be in the playoffs and were right in the mix. A lot of people not just Sens fans were projecting a cup run. Then the collapse happened. It had absolutely nothing to do with stats from the previous year or the start of the year, it had to do with team chemistry... Likely between Karlsson and Hoffman.
DDM-Coga
Colorado Avalanche
Location: If Chabot is not in the NHL, Ill revoke my account - AlfiesSald, AB
Joined: 07.24.2009

Jul 4 @ 10:09 AM ET
First of all, for once in your life try to state an opinion without writing a backhanded insult somewhere in it (towards the end with yours)

Bobby Ryan isn't a 7+ million player. Everyone knows that. That said, just last year he was one of the best players when it mattered most. He showed up BIG time in the playoffs and proved he can still play hockey. I think if he's playing 2nd line in a depth role, play on the 2nd PP or even on 1st PP, the guy will get you 20g with 50p, I truly believe that. He's worth 4-5m in my books but is in a horrible spot. This all stems with having 1 hand, look at that injury history before you start going crazy over #s. See I don't watch Avs games but I do watch Sens games; that's why the eye test will always beat out stats.

Zack Smith is another guy who had a horrible year; it's not because he's lost his abilities or due to age. No doubt on a team like tampa he's thriving putting up 15-20g, PK / 3rd line checker.

- AlfieisKing


When your owner is trying to move them bc of their contracts....that is the definition of a cap dump.

What else is there to say. Its as black and white as that. A player makes too much money for what their abilities are and are easily replaced by cheaper talent, a team does not want to pay them for that and want to get rid of them. Cap dump. Trying to sugar coat it with all these feel good hypothetical doesnt take away those facts. Call a spade a spade for once

Its a bad contract bc you paid Smith for his one season that he shot 20.7% and got grossly over paid bc of it when his career average has been bw 4-10%
Maverick1818
Ottawa Senators
Location: PEI
Joined: 02.06.2015

Jul 4 @ 10:14 AM ET
When your owner is trying to move them bc of their contracts....that is the definition of a cap dump.

What else is there to say. Its as black and white as that. A player makes too much money for what their abilities are and are easily replaced by cheaper talent, a team does not want to pay them for that and want to get rid of them. Cap dump. Trying to sugar coat it with all these feel good hypothetical doesnt take away those facts. Call a spade a spade for once

Its a bad contract bc you paid Smith for his one season that he shot 20.7% and got grossly over paid bc of it when his career average has been bw 4-10%

- DDM-Coga

I'll agree with you that Smith is a bit over paid, I said that when we gave him that deal.

However, I wouldn't view it at all as a cap dump. Technically we would be trading Karlsson for something cheaper so is Karlsson a cap dump? We traded Hoffman (a guy who was on an awesome contract) for something cheaper, was he a cap dump?

I view it as value added and Smith is certainly that. During the trade deadline there was reports that teams were calling about Smith... Not him being shopped but teams wanting him.

That shows he still has value.
DDM-Coga
Colorado Avalanche
Location: If Chabot is not in the NHL, Ill revoke my account - AlfiesSald, AB
Joined: 07.24.2009

Jul 4 @ 10:19 AM ET
I agree he isn't going to be a star scorer. But he certainly isn't a cap dump. If he was healthy and given 2nd line minutes, the guy could be a 15 - 20 goal scorer. Just look a few years ago when they put him on the second line with Stone and he netted 25 goals. On top of that he can kill penalties, fight and is one of the best leaders in the room.

I think he is a bit over paid but I wouldn't consider him a cap dump by any means. Yes 19 points last year isn't great but considering he played hurt most of the year, wasn't getting 2nd line minutes and the entire team was a dumpster fire, I'd say he did fine.

- Maverick1818


He hasnt done anything since his bloated outlier shooting percentage to justify those minutes

and a 3.5m 15-20pt PKer....almost every team has that doestn cost 3.5m. Thats the issue with him. He doesnt bring anything of value that teams desperately need so he would be considered a cap dump based on his contract. If he was making 2m...yeah he has a lot of value. His bloated contract skews any value. Look at guy like blake comeau, he puts up around 30 points, 3rd liner and a big time PKer. He just singed for 2.4m a season as UFA. Smith is 30, Comeau is 32 age wise they are reality the same.
Maverick1818
Ottawa Senators
Location: PEI
Joined: 02.06.2015

Jul 4 @ 10:23 AM ET
He hasnt done anything since his bloated outlier shooting percentage to justify those minutes

and a 3.5m 15-20pt PKer....almost every team has that doestn cost 3.5m. Thats the issue with him. He doesnt bring anything of value that teams desperately need so he would be considered a cap dump based on his contract. If he was making 2m...yeah he has a lot of value. His bloated contract skews any value. Look at guy like blake comeau, he puts up around 30 points, 3rd liner and a big time PKer. He just singed for 2.4m a season as UFA. Smith is 30, Comeau is 32 age wise they are reality the same.

- DDM-Coga

I'm not saying he isn't over paid. I'm agreeing with you on that, in fact I said that when we gave him the deal. But he certainly isn't a cap dump. Teams were calling about his at the trade deadline, meaning that his value is still there.
DDM-Coga
Colorado Avalanche
Location: If Chabot is not in the NHL, Ill revoke my account - AlfiesSald, AB
Joined: 07.24.2009

Jul 4 @ 10:31 AM ET
I'm not saying he isn't over paid. I'm agreeing with you on that, in fact I said that when we gave him the deal. But he certainly isn't a cap dump. Teams were calling about his at the trade deadline, meaning that his value is still there.
- Maverick1818


Teams will always call, who knows what the nature of that call is. For all we know...Smith has been made available and teams are calling to see what they can do to take that contract off the Sens hands

The talk going into this offseason is Sens are trying to get rid of that contract. A player can be one thing and a camp dump to another depending on the organizations sitaution.

Example....lets say Avs wanted him bc they wanted some more depth and have the cap room and finances so they dont care. They will offer x amount in a 4th round draft pick for Smith who the Sens dont care what they really get back just want him off the books. Its a cap dump for the Sens still.

This is exactly what happened to Colin Wilson and the Preds last year. Makes way too much money for what he brought to the Preds, was moved out for a low pick and its the same thing...makes too much money for the little production and injuries that he has. If the Avs moved him again I would be calling him a cap dump too
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Jul 4 @ 10:38 AM ET
That's not true at all. If you look at the Sens before the trip away to play the Avs twice. They were projected to be in the playoffs and were right in the mix. A lot of people not just Sens fans were projecting a cup run. Then the collapse happened. It had absolutely nothing to do with stats from the previous year or the start of the year, it had to do with team chemistry... Likely between Karlsson and Hoffman.
- Maverick1818

The Sens were losing more than they were winning to start the season, if I'm not mistaken, they were just buoyed by OTL points. Their underlying numbers were still as awful as the previous season.

The only people who thought they'd be a threat were the ones buying into the "one goal away from the finals" narrative. They had a lucky run, and let it get to their heads, and now are missing out on a shot at a franchise player because of it.


The "lets spend three quarters of the game in our zone and score off the rush" strategy never works for long.
Maverick1818
Ottawa Senators
Location: PEI
Joined: 02.06.2015

Jul 4 @ 10:38 AM ET
Teams will always call, who knows what the nature of that call is. For all we know...Smith has been made available and teams are calling to see what they can do to take that contract off the Sens hands

The talk going into this offseason is Sens are trying to get rid of that contract. A player can be one thing and a camp dump to another depending on the organizations sitaution.

Example....lets say Avs wanted him bc they wanted some more depth and have the cap room and finances so they dont care. They will offer x amount in a 4th round draft pick for Smith who the Sens dont care what they really get back just want him off the books. Its a cap dump for the Sens still.

This is exactly what happened to Colin Wilson and the Preds last year. Makes way too much money for what he brought to the Preds, was moved out for a low pick and its the same thing...makes too much money for the little production and injuries that he has. If the Avs moved him again I would be calling him a cap dump too

- DDM-Coga


From what I remember teams were calling because they wanted him and no trade was made because Ottawa didn't want to let him go.

That would mean that he wasn't available, and that teams were calling because he has value... again not a cap dump.

Cap dump would have been more like Burrows. Bobby Ryan will be a cap dump.

I just don't see Smith that way, yes I agree he is over paid, but he is more value added to a deal then a cap dump. IMO
DDM-Coga
Colorado Avalanche
Location: If Chabot is not in the NHL, Ill revoke my account - AlfiesSald, AB
Joined: 07.24.2009

Jul 4 @ 10:48 AM ET
From what I remember teams were calling because they wanted him and no trade was made because Ottawa didn't want to let him go.

That would mean that he wasn't available, and that teams were calling because he has value... again not a cap dump.

Cap dump would have been more like Burrows. Bobby Ryan will be a cap dump.

I just don't see Smith that way, yes I agree he is over paid, but he is more value added to a deal then a cap dump. IMO

- Maverick1818


agree to disagree
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 4 @ 11:26 AM ET
From what I remember teams were calling because they wanted him and no trade was made because Ottawa didn't want to let him go.

That would mean that he wasn't available, and that teams were calling because he has value... again not a cap dump.

Cap dump would have been more like Burrows. Bobby Ryan will be a cap dump.

I just don't see Smith that way, yes I agree he is over paid, but he is more value added to a deal then a cap dump. IMO

- Maverick1818



i thought the Sens should have put Hoffman on waivers. They moved quickly to remove him from their roster. But, perhaps not fast enough.
Maverick1818
Ottawa Senators
Location: PEI
Joined: 02.06.2015

Jul 4 @ 12:24 PM ET
agree to disagree
- DDM-Coga

Fair enough man hahaha
Maverick1818
Ottawa Senators
Location: PEI
Joined: 02.06.2015

Jul 4 @ 12:25 PM ET
i thought the Sens should have put Hoffman on waivers. They moved quickly to remove him from their roster. But, perhaps not fast enough.
- spatso

I thought they should have simply made a better trade or tell him to dump his gf and try to work it out with Karlsson like adults.

But it sucks now, because if we lose Karlsson we should have kept Hoffman
wilkobecks
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.07.2014

Jul 4 @ 12:29 PM ET
Hopefully PD has spent the last few days watching Draft Day and Moneyball to brush up on his trade skills a bit, I would rather flip EK and the deadline for whatever we can get than let some other team get him a full year early and not even expect to give up their best prospect, for one of the game's top players. If PD starts hanging up on people when they throw out crappy offers he'll be in a much better spot
DutchSenators
Location: Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Joined: 06.07.2015

Jul 4 @ 2:31 PM ET
We need more blogs so we can ventilate pains Trevor
DutchSenators
Location: Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Joined: 06.07.2015

Jul 4 @ 2:31 PM ET
I thought they should have simply made a better trade or tell him to dump his gf and try to work it out with Karlsson like adults.

But it sucks now, because if we lose Karlsson we should have kept Hoffman

- Maverick1818


False. While we are at it, why don't we add a guy like Voynov?

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