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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Defensemen dropping like flies, no news on Tavares
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Barx
Joined: 02.06.2007

Jun 29 @ 11:16 PM ET
no
- TrashPanda

..for guys on the last year or two of their deal, similar to the sheary/hunwick for a 4th deal?
I'd do it....carrick and mcelhinney for mason and myers
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Jun 29 @ 11:22 PM ET
..for guys on the last year or two of their deal, similar to the sheary/hunwick for a 4th deal?
I'd do it....carrick and mcelhinney for mason and myers

- Barx

Myers is a RHD. That would be a good trade for us.
TrashPanda
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Your Green Bin, ON
Joined: 03.29.2018

Jun 29 @ 11:23 PM ET
..for guys on the last year or two of their deal, similar to the sheary/hunwick for a 4th deal?
I'd do it....carrick and mcelhinney for mason and myers

- Barx


I'd trade those two for used cheeseburger wrappers, why bother taking back useless salary?
Barx
Joined: 02.06.2007

Jun 29 @ 11:25 PM ET
Myers is a RHD. That would be a good trade for us.
- PatC80

dump mason, bring up sparks, sign myers long term if hes a fit....
The leafs will have massive amounts of space this season before the matthews,marner,gardiner,nylander extensions start piling up.
Hell...whatabout gunning for trouba even?
Barx
Joined: 02.06.2007

Jun 29 @ 11:25 PM ET
I'd trade those two for used cheeseburger wrappers, why bother taking back useless salary?
- TrashPanda

eat mason to get myers
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Jun 29 @ 11:27 PM ET
dump mason, bring up sparks, sign myers long term if hes a fit....
The leafs will have massive amounts of space this season before the matthews,marner,gardiner,nylander extensions start piling up.
Hell...whatabout gunning for trouba even?

- Barx

Trouba would cost more than McElhinny and Carrick. We'd have to take on more cap dumps.
RafiDRW
Detroit Red Wings
Location: Bill Cosby’s Magic Wiener #FireBlashill, TN
Joined: 04.16.2016

Jun 29 @ 11:28 PM ET
Trouba would cost more than McElhinny and Carrick. We'd have to take on more cap dumps.
- PatC80

You’d have to trade away more as well.
Barx
Joined: 02.06.2007

Jun 29 @ 11:29 PM ET
Trouba would cost more than McElhinny and Carrick. We'd have to take on more cap dumps.
- PatC80

for sure....but the jets are a team thats gotta start dumping. On top of wanting to resign stastny, wheelers contract is coming up too

Also, LA, after signing kovalchuk and doughty....might need to move a guy like muzzin.
Tampa if they get JT will need to do some dumping...

As much as Id like JT, the leafs are sitting pretty to make some savvy moves if they dont get him.
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Jun 29 @ 11:32 PM ET
for sure....but the jets are a team thats gotta start dumping. On top of wanting to resign stastny, wheelers contract is coming up too

Also, LA, after signing kovalchuk and doughty....might need to move a guy like muzzin.
Tampa if they get JT will need to do some dumping...

As much as Id like JT, the leafs are sitting pretty to make some savvy moves if they dont get him.

- Barx

Muzzin would be interesting. Wonder if LA moves him.
RafiDRW
Detroit Red Wings
Location: Bill Cosby’s Magic Wiener #FireBlashill, TN
Joined: 04.16.2016

Jun 29 @ 11:33 PM ET
Muzzin would be interesting. Wonder if LA moves him.
- PatC80

What would be your offer? I’d think they’d want to inject some youth and top six or top four skill. They are definitely older, like San Jose old.
PatC80
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I would never let my children play hockey. The risk of getting drafted by Edmonton is too high", ON
Joined: 08.11.2011

Jun 29 @ 11:36 PM ET
What would be your offer? I’d think they’d want to inject some youth and top six or top four skill. They are definitely older, like San Jose old.
- RafiDRW

A package centered around Connor Brown and draft picks.
gravyface
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I wouldn't even trade [Marner] for McDavid -- UsernameUnknown
Joined: 02.19.2009

Jun 30 @ 12:10 AM ET
Gardiner was acquired in 2011. He played 75 games in 2012. It doesn't have to take forever.

And whether the Leafs want to or not, contending won't happen for a few more years anyway so better off saving the cap space and getting a guy who will be part of the future than risk losing Gardiner for nothing or overpaying him to stay.

- Unholy_Goalie


It's pretty simple:

If we land Tavares, we're contending next year.

If we don't land Tavares, we're still competing next year.
Unholy_Goalie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: usually UG offends everyone by telling the truth - dt99999, ON
Joined: 08.23.2006

Jun 30 @ 12:41 AM ET
It's pretty simple:

If we land Tavares, we're contending next year.

If we don't land Tavares, we're still competing next year.

- gravyface


Even with Tavares, the defense is a huge issue. Just because they get Tavares doesn't mean their ticket to the Conference or Cup Finals is punched. They still got a lot of work to do.
gravyface
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I wouldn't even trade [Marner] for McDavid -- UsernameUnknown
Joined: 02.19.2009

Jun 30 @ 12:58 AM ET
Even with Tavares, the defense is a huge issue. Just because they get Tavares doesn't mean their ticket to the Conference or Cup Finals is punched. They still got a lot of work to do.
- Unholy_Goalie


I think having three centers that can match-up against anyone in the league will do wonders for the team defense.

Just deleting Bozak and JVR improves our team defense in a measurable way.
Unholy_Goalie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: usually UG offends everyone by telling the truth - dt99999, ON
Joined: 08.23.2006

Jun 30 @ 1:01 AM ET
I think having three centers that can match-up against anyone in the league will do wonders for the team defense.

Just deleting Bozak and JVR improves our team defense in a measurable way.

- gravyface


Like I was saying the other day, JVR and Bozak, combined, accounted for 47 goals and 97 points. Tavares had 37 goals and 84 points (his 2nd best career total). Even if Tavares has exactly the same year and makes one of his linemates score an extra 13 goals, wins all the face-offs Bozak would win, the Leafs could still be exactly where they were last year.

And let's be clear; I think Tavares improves this Leafs team but by how much is up for debate. Tavares was on the ice for 121 goals for but he was also on the ice for 114 against. How many of those were his fault compared to his bad defense and bad goaltending? Who knows? But what we do know is that the Leafs defense isn't much better than the Islanders defense. The goaltending is much better but the GAA and the playoffs GAA would suggest that even if Tavares replaces the lost offense, the defense is still a major issue and probably still costs you a playoff series, albeit in the 2nd round instead of the 1st round perhaps.
gravyface
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I wouldn't even trade [Marner] for McDavid -- UsernameUnknown
Joined: 02.19.2009

Jun 30 @ 1:13 AM ET
Like I was saying the other day, JVR and Bozak, combined, accounted for 47 goals and 97 points. Tavares had 37 goals and 84 points (his 2nd best career total). Even if Tavares has exactly the same year and makes one of his linemates score an extra 13 goals, wins all the face-offs Bozak would win, the Leafs could still be exactly where they were last year.

And let's be clear; I think Tavares improves this Leafs team but by how much is up for debate. Tavares was on the ice for 121 goals for but he was also on the ice for 114 against. How many of those were his fault compared to his bad defense and bad goaltending? Who knows? But what we do know is that the Leafs defense isn't much better than the Islanders defense. The goaltending is much better but the GAA and the playoffs GAA would suggest that even if Tavares replaces the lost offense, the defense is still a major issue and probably still costs you a playoff series, albeit in the 2nd round instead of the 1st round perhaps.

- Unholy_Goalie


I think it changes the dimension of this team dramatically, down to breakouts, match-ups on the road, and being able to ice an actual shutdown 3rd line with a very good center in Kadri instead of a sheltered scoring line that Babcock couldn't trust in their own end, at home or on the road.

If we can roll 4 lines out the door, we'll be playing so much in the right end of the rink that our D will actually look and play above their pay grade or how they look on paper.

That and a backup that's going to knock on the door and challenge for 25-30 games a year (Sparks).
jribout
Season Ticket Holder
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 01.24.2011

Jun 30 @ 1:23 AM ET
Like I was saying the other day, JVR and Bozak, combined, accounted for 47 goals and 97 points. Tavares had 37 goals and 84 points (his 2nd best career total). Even if Tavares has exactly the same year and makes one of his linemates score an extra 13 goals, wins all the face-offs Bozak would win, the Leafs could still be exactly where they were last year.

And let's be clear; I think Tavares improves this Leafs team but by how much is up for debate. Tavares was on the ice for 121 goals for but he was also on the ice for 114 against. How many of those were his fault compared to his bad defense and bad goaltending? Who knows? But what we do know is that the Leafs defense isn't much better than the Islanders defense. The goaltending is much better but the GAA and the playoffs GAA would suggest that even if Tavares replaces the lost offense, the defense is still a major issue and probably still costs you a playoff series, albeit in the 2nd round instead of the 1st round perhaps.

- Unholy_Goalie


Even with your logic that would be 10 goals and 13 puts.
Unholy_Goalie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: usually UG offends everyone by telling the truth - dt99999, ON
Joined: 08.23.2006

Jun 30 @ 1:23 AM ET
I think it changes the dimension of this team dramatically, down to breakouts, match-ups on the road, and being able to ice an actual shutdown 3rd line with a very good center in Kadri instead of a sheltered scoring line that Babcock couldn't trust in their own end, at home or on the road.

If we can roll 4 lines out the door, we'll be playing so much in the right end of the rink that our D will actually look and play above their pay grade or how they look on paper.

That and a backup that's going to knock on the door and challenge for 25-30 games a year (Sparks).

- gravyface


It changes the team but the Leafs still gave up 28 goals in 7 games against the Bruins. Maybe Tavares is the difference maker and they beat the Bruins but then what about the Lightning with just as much scoring power but with a better goalie and better defense?

I don't see Sparks being that guy as a rookie. If the Leafs want a guaranteed 25-30 games from their back-up, they need to get a former starter or a back-up who has proven he can play 25-30 games effectively. Grubauer would have been nice, I think Lehner would be nice too.
Unholy_Goalie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: usually UG offends everyone by telling the truth - dt99999, ON
Joined: 08.23.2006

Jun 30 @ 1:24 AM ET
Even with your logic that would be 10 goals and 13 puts.
- jribout


What do you mean?
Thecakeisalie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Imagine something funny
Joined: 01.27.2010

Jun 30 @ 1:48 AM ET
What do you mean?
- Unholy_Goalie


Like I was saying the other day, JVR and Bozak, combined, accounted for 47 goals and 97 points. Tavares had 37 goals and 84 points (his 2nd best career total). Even if Tavares has exactly the same year and makes one of his linemates score an extra 13 goals, wins all the face-offs Bozak would win, the Leafs could still be exactly where they were last year.


He meant that your numbers were incorrect. A simple mistake. You mixed up goals and points.

47 goals - 37 goals = 10 goals.
97 points - 84 points = 13 points.

So if Tavares had a similar year as last year he would need to help a linemate produce at least 10 goals and 13 points total in order to break even with JVR and Bozak.

And lets be honest, do you really think whoever was playing on his wing wouldn't be capable of 10 goals and 13 points? If they aren't capable of that even without JT, then why are they even in the league? Matt (frank)ing Martin would do better than that playing with Tavares. Martin had 12 points in 50 games last year on the 4th line playing with much worse guys than Tavares.

That's the other problem with your thing about JVR and Bozak vs Tavares. Whoever takes the other spot from JVR needs their own totals factored in. And whoever it is should be capable of doing much more than 13 (frank)ing points even without JT, let alone with him.
Unholy_Goalie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: usually UG offends everyone by telling the truth - dt99999, ON
Joined: 08.23.2006

Jun 30 @ 2:00 AM ET
He meant that your numbers were incorrect. A simple mistake. You mixed up goals and points.

47 goals - 37 goals = 10 goals.
97 points - 84 points = 13 points.

So if Tavares had a similar year as last year he would need to help a linemate produce at least 10 goals and 13 points total in order to break even with JVR and Bozak.

And lets be honest, do you really think whoever was playing on his wing wouldn't be capable of 10 goals and 13 points? If they aren't capable of that even without JT, then why are they even in the league? Matt (frank)ing Martin would do better than that playing with Tavares. Martin had 12 points in 50 games last year on the 4th line playing with much worse guys than Tavares.

That's the other problem with your thing about JVR and Bozak vs Tavares. Whoever takes the other spot from JVR needs their own totals factored in. And whoever it is should be capable of doing much more than 13 (frank)ing points even without JT, let alone with him.

- Thecakeisalie


They weren't incorrect. I said help a linemate score 13 more goals than usual (like Kapanen scoring 20 instead of 7) which would bridge the gap in total points. It was easier to say than 10 goals and 3 assists for a total of 13 points.

I have no doubt that whoever is playing with Tavares will score more goals. What I'm saying is the defense is still garbage and ultimately it will still cause the Leafs to lose games and series. Tavares just spent the last 9 years on a bad defensive team and they hardly made the playoffs, much less succeeded in them.

The Leafs can score more goals all they want and find themselves in the same problem the Capitals had for 13 years; score all year long and still lose in the playoffs. Adding Tavares replaces and creates a lot of offense but it doesn't necessarily improve the defense. It's still an issue that will hold the Leafs back. It's not like Tavares is Bergeron where he'll be preventing goals all over the place. He was 2nd on the Islanders in giveaways and on the ice for 114 goals against (69 even strength). He's not a huge liability but he's not a Selke nominee either.

So again, the point is, signing Tavares replaces the lost offense and might even bring more offense but the fundamental problem with the Leafs is still shots against, chances against, goals against and overall team defense.

But, if they sign Tavares and trade Nylander for help on defense, now we can talk about significant improvement in two different areas and can talk about actually progressing.
Thecakeisalie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Imagine something funny
Joined: 01.27.2010

Jun 30 @ 2:12 AM ET
They weren't incorrect. I said help a linemate score 13 more goals than usual (like Kapanen scoring 20 instead of 7) which would bridge the gap in total points. It was easier to say than 10 goals and 3 assists for a total of 13 points.

I have no doubt that whoever is playing with Tavares will score more goals. What I'm saying is the defense is still garbage and ultimately it will still cause the Leafs to lose games and series. Tavares just spent the last 9 years on a bad defensive team and they hardly made the playoffs, much less succeeded in them.

The Leafs can score more goals all they want and find themselves in the same problem the Capitals had for 13 years; score all year long and still lose in the playoffs. Adding Tavares replaces and creates a lot of offense but it doesn't necessarily improve the defense. It's still an issue that will hold the Leafs back. It's not like Tavares is Bergeron where he'll be preventing goals all over the place. He was 2nd on the Islanders in giveaways. He's not a huge liability but he's not a Selke nominee either.

So again, the point is, signing Tavares replaces the lost offense and might even bring more offense but the fundamental problem with the Leafs is still goals against and team defense.

But, if they sign Tavares and trade Nylander for help on defense, now we can talk about significant improvement in two different areas and can talk about actually progressing.

- Unholy_Goalie


Dude, you said 13 goals. The difference you showed between JT and Bozak/JVR was 10 goals. 47-37 = 10. That was the mistake.

The other thing you don't seem to understand is that you are not factoring in that if we subtract 2 players, (Bozak and JVR), we would bring in 2 players, not just Tavares. This means you need to factor in the point totals of the other player too, not just compare JT points to Bozak and JVR. You're missing a player. They would score something even without JT. Understand?

Let me use an example.

We lose 2 guys, Bozak and JVR, which had 47 goals and 97 points between both players.

Say we don't get Tavares, say we somehow got Stastny and Rick Nash. I'm not saying I'd want these guys, this is just for your example.
So when we look at these guys, we wouldn't just look at Stastny's totals, would we? We'd also include Nash's.
Stastny had 16 goals and 53 points, while Nash had 21 goals and 34 points. So we add them together and say they have a total of 37 goals and 87 points.

Now what if instead of Stastny, we actually got Tavares? Then you throw in his 37 goals and 84 points.
It's not just his points you compare to Bozak and JVR, you also need to factor in Nash, so it's actually 47 goals and 97 points out and 58 goals and 111 points in. Then you consider whether they'd help each other to score even more and if Tavares would elevate Nash to a higher points total like you were suggesting he might do to some linemates.

The bottom line is you are not factoring in the fact that whoever took JVR's spot would get points even before Tavares "helps" them, so your whole, he'd need to help them increase their totals by 13 points just to break even thing is wrong. You'd hope they'd get more than 13 points even without Tavares elevating their game.
Unholy_Goalie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: usually UG offends everyone by telling the truth - dt99999, ON
Joined: 08.23.2006

Jun 30 @ 2:28 AM ET
Dude, you said 13 goals. The difference you showed between JT and Bozak/JVR was 10 goals. 47-37 = 10. That was the mistake.
- Thecakeisalie


97 - 84 = 13.

Like I already said, 13 extra goals or 10 extra goals and 3 assists, it's still 13 points. There was no mistake, you're just arguing semantics at this point.

The other thing you don't seem to understand is that you are not factoring in that if we subtract 2 players, (Bozak and JVR), we would bring in 2 players, not just Tavares. This means you need to factor in the point totals of the other player too, not just compare JT points to Bozak and JVR. You're missing a player. They would score something even without JT. Understand?


Kapanen gets more ice-time and his increase of goals playing beside Tavares would be the assists Tavares puts up such as the 13 extra goals Kapanen would score bringing him from 7 to 20 goals.

If you want to use just goals to keep it simple, JVR and Bozak scored 47 goals combined, Tavares scored 37 goals. Let's say Kapanen scores 17 goals (the 7 he already scored last year plus the 10 extra Tavares will help him score). We're still at 47 goals. Even if Tavares helps Kapanen score 27 goals and we're ahead by 10 goals, it still does nothing to address the issue I clearly outlined 5 times already; the defense still sucks.

My point was not to say Tavares can't replace JVR and Bozak. I never said that. My point is to say even if he does and even if he exceeds, the Leafs could find themselves beating Boston and still losing to Tampa Bay given their poopty defense because while Tavares is really good at creating offense, he's not like Bergeron in his ability to prevent it.

Let me use an example.

We lose 2 guys, Bozak and JVR, which had 47 goals and 97 points between both players.

Say we don't get Tavares, say we somehow got Stastny and Rick Nash. I'm not saying I'd want these guys, this is just for your example.
So when we look at these guys, we wouldn't just look at Stastny's totals, would we? We'd also include Nash's.
Stastny had 16 goals and 53 points, while Nash had 21 goals and 34 points. So we add them together and say they have a total of 37 goals and 87 points.

Now what if instead of Stastny, we actually got Tavares? Then you throw in his 37 goals and 84 points.
It's not just his points you compare to Bozak and JVR, you also need to factor in Nash, so it's actually 47 goals and 97 points out and 58 goals and 111 points in. Then you consider whether they'd help each other to score even more and if Tavares would elevate Nash to a higher points total like you were suggesting he might do to some linemates.


This entire piece was a waste of time and unnecessary.

The bottom line is you are not factoring in the fact that whoever took JVR's spot would get points even before Tavares "helps" them, so your whole, he'd need to help them increase their totals by 13 points just to break even thing is wrong. You'd hope they'd get more than 13 points even without Tavares elevating their game.


Tavares is replacing both JVR and Bozak in different respects. On the PP, Tavares is replacing JVR and most likely his PP goals too. In the face-off dot, Tavares is replacing Bozak. But all of this is besides the point. I'm not doubting that Tavares can replace the offense or even help produce more offense. I'm saying the defense is still the (frank)ing problem. Do you understand? The Islanders were not a bad offensive team. They only scored 9 fewer goals than the Leafs. The Islanders sucked defensively and in net. The Leafs could replace the offense they lost and then some but it still doesn't fix the problem of not being able to reduce shots, chances and goals against.
Thecakeisalie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Imagine something funny
Joined: 01.27.2010

Jun 30 @ 2:37 AM ET
97 - 84 = 13.

Like I already said, 13 extra goals or 10 extra goals and 3 assists, it's still 13 points. There was no mistake, you're just arguing semantics at this point.

- Unholy_Goalie

Now you get it at least. jribout was telling you it wasn't 13 goals, it was ten. I was trying to explain to you what he meant, since you seemed confused. The way you wrote seemed like were saying there was a 13 goal gap, instead of 10. I was trying to enlighten you.

Personally, I think when discussing who will replace JVR and teh Bozek, we should just talk about goals, rather than points. It's less confusing and more relevant. No one won a game because they had the most assists/points. It would also cause less confusion when mixing them up.


Kapanen gets more ice-time and his increase of goals playing beside Tavares would be the assists Tavares puts up such as the 13 extra goals Kapanen would score bringing him from 7 to 20 goals.

If you want to use just goals to keep it simple, JVR and Bozak scored 47 goals combined, Tavares scored 37 goals. Let's say Kapanen scores 17 goals (the 7 he already scored last year plus the 10 extra Tavares will help him score). We're still at 47 goals. Even if Tavares helps Kapanen score 27 goals and we're ahead by 10 goals, it still does nothing to address the issue I clearly outlined 5 times already; the defense still sucks.

My point was not to say Tavares can't replace JVR and Bozak. I never said that. My point is to say even if he does and even if he exceeds, the Leafs could find themselves beating Boston and still losing to Tampa Bay given their poopty defense because while Tavares is really good at creating offense, he's not like Bergeron in his ability to prevent it.



This entire piece was a waste of time and unnecessary.



Tavares is replacing both JVR and Bozak in different respects. On the PP, Tavares is replacing JVR and most likely his PP goals too. In the face-off dot, Tavares is replacing Bozak. But all of this is besides the point. I'm not doubting that Tavares can replace the offense or even help produce more offense. I'm saying the defense is still the (frank)ing problem. Do you understand? The Islanders were not a bad offensive team. They only scored 9 fewer goals than the Leafs. The Islanders sucked defensively and in net. The Leafs could replace the offense they lost and then some but it still doesn't fix the problem of not being able to reduce shots, chances and goals against.

- Unholy_Goalie


My explanation was necessary and you still don't seem to understand. Obviously you didn't properly think about it. If we take away two players from our roster, we need to add two players, not one. Otherwise we're playing with 11 forwards.

Kapanen was on the 4th line most of this year. If he moves into JVR's newly vacant spot and plays with Tavares and Brown, someone else needs to take Kapanen's spot. Then you need to factor in how many goals that person will get. Understand?
You can't take out two players and only add one. You wouldn't have a full roster. Then you need to factor in that new players points.

Whether Tavares is better defensively (and whoever else takes a roster spot) compared to JVR and Bozak is up for argument. Personally, I find it hard to accept JT is worse defensively than either Bozak or JVR.
Unholy_Goalie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: usually UG offends everyone by telling the truth - dt99999, ON
Joined: 08.23.2006

Jun 30 @ 3:15 AM ET

Personally, I think when discussing who will replace JVR and teh Bozek, we should just talk about goals, rather than points. It's less confusing and more relevant. No one won a game because they had the most assists/points. It would also cause less confusion when mixing them up.

My explanation was necessary and you still don't seem to understand. Obviously you didn't properly think about it. If we take away two players from our roster, we need to add two players, not one. Otherwise we're playing with 11 forwards.

Kapanen was on the 4th line most of this year. If he moves into JVR's newly vacant spot and plays with Tavares and Brown, someone else needs to take Kapanen's spot. Then you need to factor in how many goals that person will get. Understand?
You can't take out two players and only add one. You wouldn't have a full roster. Then you need to factor in that new players points.

Whether Tavares is better defensively (and whoever else takes a roster spot) compared to JVR and Bozak is up for argument. Personally, I find it hard to accept JT is worse defensively than either Bozak or JVR.

- Thecakeisalie


No problem.

JVR scored 36 goals. Bozak scored 11. Combined they scored 47.
Tavares scored 37 goals. Tavares is a very capable playmaker. Let's say he helps another player score 11 more goals than they normally would (Kapanen scores 18 goals instead of 7) thus equaling both JVR and Bozak in goal production. Let's say Tavares goes above and beyond and helps Marner score 10 more goals too and the player that replaces Kapanen scores 5 goals. That's 15 more total goals than last year.

Are we on the same page yet?

Now, take into account that Tavares was on the ice for 114 goals against (69 even strength). Bozak and JVR were on the ice for 43 and 48. We could add those two numbers together but it wouldn't be accurate because they were on the ice together 85% of the time so we'd be counting a lot of those goals twice. But let's say it's 39, just for the hell of it. That's still a -30 goals against difference.

And Tavares, with Bailey and Lee, were 31 goals for and 39 goals against as a line 5 on 5. And Tavares was 2nd on the Islanders in giveaways with 78 (Bozak and JVR combined for 80 giveaways).

But the Islanders goalies sucked and not every goal is Tavares' fault so let's say half of that -30 goal difference (-15) is the fault of bad goaltending (which the Leafs don't have).

Where are we? Right back where we started. The goals replaced (or maybe even a bit more) but the defense still unimproved and the team, overall, only slightly better than before. Why? Because the offense was replaced but the defense is the same.

Am I saying Tavares is bad defensively or a bad signing? Absolutely not. I'm just saying, he's not Bergeron in his ability to prevent goals even though his ability to create goals is very strong. The issue still remains that while Tavares may replace and even exceed the goal totals of the departing players, the Leafs, as a team, still will most likely give up a lot of shots, chances and goals against and thus, may be only slightly further ahead (beat Boston but lose to Tampa Bay for example) as a team unless they improve the defense.
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