Goalies are inconsistent. That is a known fact.
- sditulli

Maybe, maybe not.

for 1500 shots (a slightly high season load but sort of round number) the random variation using the expectation of poisson arrivals is an 11 goals standard deviation.
If all goalies in the NHL were identical 0.92 save machines, we would expect to see about 5 with a SP >= 0.927 and 5 with a SP <= 0.913


A lot of the perceived variability in NHL caliber goalies is just random bounces, direction, or screens of the puck.

Marc-Andre Fleury never saw this version of team defense and team speed all playing a 200' game

12 goals == 4 pts in the standings, nice but underwhelming.

My regression analysis says that the going rate is 3 goals differential for each standings point. Vegas was comfortably a playoff team without Fleury. With league average goal tending Vegas probably wins the division comfortably.

Their shooting % has probably been a bigger factor and a bigger fluke.

BTW, it couldn't happen to a better guy, I'm rooting for Fleury! Take that 4th cup!
- TartanBill

Fail

Can we get a chart showing how bad gallant is screwing the knights over by playing reaves over Tatar now please.... haha just think how much better they would be if they made this change.

Seems like the players love playing with 2 of the players that the penguins “CANT” win with on the ice... Reaves and Engelland

Big Buff said about reaves... he’s a force you can’t put numbers to. You have to move the puck quicker and it forces you to make mistakes. Even when he isn’t out there you still feel the effects of what he did the shift prior from his hits.

Can we get a chart showing how bad gallant is screwing the knights over by playing reaves over Tatar now please.... haha just think how much better they would be if they made this change.

Seems like the players love playing with 2 of the players that the penguins “CANT” win with on the ice... Reaves and Engelland

Big Buff said about reaves... he’s a force you can’t put numbers to. You have to move the puck quicker and it forces you to make mistakes. Even when he isn’t out there you still feel the effects of what he did the shift prior from his hits.
- pens4life-66

Excuse me, but I think a hockey blogger on an internet rumor site would know a little more about hockey than a 4-time NHL All Star with a Stanley Cup ring.

Can we get a chart showing how bad gallant is screwing the knights over by playing reaves over Tatar now please.... haha just think how much better they would be if they made this change.

Seems like the players love playing with 2 of the players that the penguins “CANT” win with on the ice... Reaves and Engelland

Big Buff said about reaves... he’s a force you can’t put numbers to. You have to move the puck quicker and it forces you to make mistakes. Even when he isn’t out there you still feel the effects of what he did the shift prior from his hits.
- pens4life-66

Can't tell if serious or not.

They gave up a 2nd in 2020 to guarantee VGK took MAF because they needed the cap relief.
- Feds91Stammer

This is the truth, cap relief/salary dump whatever you want to call it. Point is you need two solid goalies for the season and especially the playoffs.

This is the truth, cap relief/salary dump whatever you want to call it. Point is you need two solid goalies for the season and especially the playoffs.
- CappyJr.

Pens didn't get bounced because of Murray, Pens got bounced because no one other than Sid and Guentzel scored. Not really sure why this is so difficult to grasp.

Here, let Mr. Fleury explain it himself:


- usmcaaron

This is from the New York Times Best Seller "Things Marc Andre Fleury Never Said: A Book of Misinformation". What a classic. I can tell you are a very well read individual.

The 'Ryan Reaves game winning, series winning WCF winning goal' blog must be tomorrow's topic. I mean how can anyone let an opportunity like that go by without discussing???

MAF must be the luckiest son of female dog on this planet (it's all luck for goalies after all )

Marc-Andre Fleury is a very good goalie. Aside from 2 bad playoff runs, he generally gave the Penguins a good chance to win games more often than not.

That being said, he looks like a different goalie. In Pittsburgh, he was not very technically sound and relied more on his raw athleticism, which is up there with Quick as the best in the game, in order to make the save. He's very quick, has great flexibility even by goalie standards, and scrambles better than anyone since Hasek.

In Vegas, he plays more of a technical style. He still scrambles when he has to, but more often than not this season, he's been tracking the puck well and getting set. I don't know if it's a different goalie coach or a different system that allows him to play that way, but I just see a difference in his style.

I've always thought that MAF was overrated. Very good, but seldom great. However, if Vegas wins a Cup, especially with MAF winning the Conn Smythe, I think he has to get serious contention, even if he was a bit-part player in the 2016 Cup.
- jmatchett383

I said in the last thread Fleury started to find another level once they fired his long-time goaltending coach in Meloche. He always had great raw athletic talent, but his positioning was always suspect. Mike Bales did a great job with him and that seems to have continued on Vegas.

Can't tell if serious or not.
- Feds91Stammer

Well, we had numerous numerous blogs wrote this season showing how incredibly bad Reaves held the penguins down from winning from being in the lineup. If needed I can go reference those blogs and reference the comments after to show these.

So what I’m saying is let’s see how terrible Of a job Gallant is doing by putting a player this bad into the lineup that literally was said to be sinking the pens and making them lose over putting domenick Simon in the lineup. Gallant is putting reaves in over a player like Tatar that seems to hold his own relative to teammates and puts up 30-50 points of there last 5 years.

Well, we had numerous numerous blogs wrote this season showing how incredibly bad Reaves held the penguins down from winning from being in the lineup. If needed I can go reference those blogs and reference the comments after to show these.

So what I’m saying is let’s see how terrible Of a job Gallant is doing by putting a player this bad into the lineup that literally was said to be sinking the pens and making them lose over putting domenick Simon in the lineup. Gallant is putting reaves in over a player like Tatar that seems to hold his own relative to teammates and puts up 30-50 points of there last 5 years.
- pens4life-66

Well generally speaking giving Reaves ice time is usually a complete waste.

This is only partly true. They also did it to prevent a cole or rust from being taken and leaving them with ten mil in goalie cost. But truish

Excuse me, but I think a hockey blogger on an internet rumor site would know a little more about hockey than a 4-time NHL All Star with a Stanley Cup ring.
- jmatchett383

I see you picked up what I was putting down. Do analytics help a team out? 100% they do. Do they tell the entire story... well I Sure as h.e.l.l hope not or what in the world are teams spending 5 million a season on scouting for!???? Don’t you think if scouting and game film didn’t matter they would cut out spending millions of dollars and thousands of hours watching and just use analytics!!!??? Would be a major waste of money when commenters in here have the analytics covered with charts daily.

Like Byfuglien said about Reaves, even when he isn’t on the ice it’s still in your head from the last time he hit you. That’s from one of the biggest physically players to ever play the game! Imagine how it feels for average players taking those hits over 4-7 games... it hurts. Those kind of mental things don’t show up on stats. Never will. From hearing Vegas and jets players talk especially Vegas players they had high praise for leaders such as engelland and reaves. Do you want them in your top 9 and top 4 respectively??? No. Can you win with them in your bottom of your lineup? Clearly yes and the players playing are endorsing this 100% clearly.

I see you picked up what I was putting down. Do analytics help a team out? 100% they do. Do they tell the entire story... well I Sure as h.e.l.l hope not or what in the world are teams spending 5 million a season on scouting for!???? Don’t you think if scouting and game film didn’t matter they would cut out spending millions of dollars and thousands of hours watching and just use analytics!!!??? Would be a major waste of money when commenters in here have the analytics covered with charts daily.

Like Byfuglien said about Reaves, even when he isn’t on the ice it’s still in your head from the last time he hit you. That’s from one of the biggest physically players to ever play the game! Imagine how it feels for average players taking those hits over 4-7 games... it hurts. Those kind of mental things don’t show up on stats. Never will. From hearing Vegas and jets players talk especially Vegas players they had high praise for leaders such as engelland and reaves. Do you want them in your top 9 and top 4 respectively??? No. Can you win with them in your bottom of your lineup? Clearly yes and the players playing are endorsing this 100% clearly.
- pens4life-66

I wouldn't mind betting a fair few analytics guys have never played a near serious game of anything & just don't get what Buff has said. Guys that have played a pro sports team game know the numbers aren't anything to hold onto as there are much more important things to be looking at. It's funny that Tatar is talked about so fondly by some, but Reaves is hammered by the same.

Well generally speaking giving Reaves ice time is usually a complete waste.
- Feds91Stammer

Because you can’t package what he does into a nice little chart that in your mind makes you feel like you know what you’re talking about? In reality you’re just basing your opinion off someone else’s tedious work that has very little value and can usually be seen by people with actual hockey minds. Like myself.

Because you can’t package what he does into a nice little chart that in your mind makes you feel like you know what you’re talking about? In reality you’re just basing your opinion off someone else’s tedious work that has very little value and can usually be seen by people with actual hockey minds. Like myself.
- Grinder47

Four Ring Fluery.

This is but shouldn’t be totally about Reaves alone. The only excuse I’ve heard so far is fleury is unbeatable right now. Ok fine and dandy to say that. But when you look at the final 4 teams which is pretty damn good to make it to, name 1 4th line that is good in the analytics stats!?

We got Tampa with Kunitz, paquette, Callahan
Washington with DSP, beagle, chiasson
Jets with tanev, Lowry, armia
Knights with nosek, bellemare, reaves

So does this mean all 4 of these final teams are running on luck!? Or all are getting “unbeatable” goaltending!? Or is it teams clearly can have a he.ll of a season with “analytically poor” 4th lines.

It’s literally on repeat in this forum the pens only lose cuz of our 4th line or only because Reaves was on it or rowney or kuhnhackl etc.... seems these last 4 teams have AT LEAST 1 weak analytics player on there 4th
Line and 1 of those teams might have 3 bad players on there’s and have had a good winning season still.

Pens didn't get bounced because of Murray, Pens got bounced because no one other than Sid and Guentzel scored. Not really sure why this is so difficult to grasp.
- j.boyd919

That's probably the biggest reason, but IMO it was a cumulative thing. No depth scoring, sketchy defense, Murray gave up a few softies. Murray also didn't make enough "big saves". In the two cup runs, Murray bailed them out routinely. He didn't do that this year.

- j.boyd919

Vegas is laughing to the finals. I cannot respect a “hockey person” that sees zero value in Reaves. It baffles me.

Vegas is laughing to the finals. I cannot respect a “hockey person” that sees zero value in Reaves. It baffles me.
- Grinder47

If you're referring to not respecting me, I don't really give a (frank). Hahahaha

I wouldn't mind betting a fair few analytics guys have never played a near serious game of anything & just don't get what Buff has said. Guys that have played a pro sports team game know the numbers aren't anything to hold onto as there are much more important things to be looking at. It's funny that Tatar is talked about so fondly by some, but Reaves is hammered by the same.

- Aussiepenguin

I'm an "analytics guy" and play pretty competitive hockey.

Have you ever played hockey?

I'm an "analytics guy" and play pretty competitive hockey.

Have you ever played hockey?
- Blackstrom2

Ok well done you're 1. And you know what, I don't remember you saying anything stupid about stats recently - coincidence?

Never hockey but earnt a living playing rugby league.