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Forums :: Blog World :: Jared Crozier: First look to the future - the eve of the draft lottery
Author Message
Raven33
Ottawa Senators
Location: Jenn, stop copying me as I copy Garth myself! - Andrew S.
Joined: 11.12.2008

Apr 28 @ 7:53 PM ET
So much for that possibility now. But hey, 4th is better than 5th!
- sportsdataguy


NHL back to their ol' fixing tricks! what BS...
david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Apr 28 @ 7:54 PM ET
NHL back to their ol' fixing tricks! what BS...
- Raven33


Buffalo and carolina dont scream fixing to me.
sportsdataguy
Ottawa Senators
Location: NS
Joined: 11.24.2014

Apr 28 @ 7:55 PM ET
NHL back to their ol' fixing tricks! what BS...
- Raven33


I think this will almost certainly lock us into picking Tkachuk now. Which is also good in that it takes pressure off PD I'm guessing.
DDM-Coga
Colorado Avalanche
Location: If Chabot is not in the NHL, Ill revoke my account - AlfiesSald, AB
Joined: 07.24.2009

Apr 28 @ 7:56 PM ET
sportsdataguy
Ottawa Senators
Location: NS
Joined: 11.24.2014

Apr 28 @ 7:58 PM ET

- DDM-Coga


Sorry, you still can't have it.
david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Apr 28 @ 8:00 PM ET
Oh well, so tkachuck is the most likely camdidate.

If hes anything like his brother thatd be sick. He was drafted similarly but turned into one of the better players in that draft.
DDM-Coga
Colorado Avalanche
Location: If Chabot is not in the NHL, Ill revoke my account - AlfiesSald, AB
Joined: 07.24.2009

Apr 28 @ 8:00 PM ET
Sorry, you still can't have it.
- sportsdataguy


Its just such an interesting pick

You won't move it, but if you take Brady Tkachuk at 4 (a fine pick)....he isnt coming into the fold next season as hes BU committed already.

If they top 3 goes as they should, and Sens take Brady Tkachuk at 4...there is no help coming in next season to help make sure the 2019 pick isnt a Jack Hughes lottery pick
Raven33
Ottawa Senators
Location: Jenn, stop copying me as I copy Garth myself! - Andrew S.
Joined: 11.12.2008

Apr 28 @ 8:05 PM ET
Buffalo and carolina dont scream fixing to me.
- david22


Carolina was part of the new owner deal...
Habs..nuff said...
Buffalo was just due after being screwed for years...

tongue in cheek but still pissed...no Dahlin, no Karlsson, no 1st round next year...
sportsdataguy
Ottawa Senators
Location: NS
Joined: 11.24.2014

Apr 28 @ 8:10 PM ET
Oh well, so tkachuck is the most likely camdidate.

If hes anything like his brother thatd be sick. He was drafted similarly but turned into one of the better players in that draft.

- david22


Exactly, it may be very fortunate that we're forced into selecting him. Sounds like he's built for the playoffs too, in the mould of a Lucic.
sportsdataguy
Ottawa Senators
Location: NS
Joined: 11.24.2014

Apr 28 @ 8:12 PM ET
Its just such an interesting pick

You won't move it, but if you take Brady Tkachuk at 4 (a fine pick)....he isnt coming into the fold next season as hes BU committed already.

If they top 3 goes as they should, and Sens take Brady Tkachuk at 4...there is no help coming in next season to help make sure the 2019 pick isnt a Jack Hughes lottery pick

- DDM-Coga


Oh well, we'll just have to deal with it. All that's left for us is hope.
sportsdataguy
Ottawa Senators
Location: NS
Joined: 11.24.2014

Apr 28 @ 8:15 PM ET
Carolina was part of the new owner deal...
Habs..nuff said...
Buffalo was just due after being screwed for years...

tongue in cheek but still pissed...no Dahlin, no Karlsson, no 1st round next year...

- Raven33


Well that's the glass-half-empty look at it. No 1st rounder next year UNLESS we acquire one. Karlsson is the next HUGE decision, at least this year's selection should now be simpler for PD. Poor guy has enough to juggle, so that can only be a good thing?

My own hope is that Melnyk sees the value in keeping Karlsson around for ticket sales if nothing else. Ideally he'd only be traded IF he gets a substantial offer which is worthy of a franchise player. Otherwise, bring out the pitchforks!
SensFan25
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 08.24.2006

Apr 28 @ 8:15 PM ET
Exactly, it may be very fortunate that we're forced into selecting him. Sounds like he's built for the playoffs too, in the mould of a Lucic.
- sportsdataguy

Carolina is looking to add more edge / nastiness to their forward corps... who knows, maybe they grab Tkachuk if they are third.
Buffalo - Dahlin
Montreal - Svechnikov (they love their Russians)
Carolina - Tkachuk

I'm fine with either of the three forwards.
DDM-Coga
Colorado Avalanche
Location: If Chabot is not in the NHL, Ill revoke my account - AlfiesSald, AB
Joined: 07.24.2009

Apr 28 @ 8:16 PM ET
Oh well, we'll just have to deal with it. All that's left for us is hope.
- sportsdataguy


im legit curious about the sens offseason, that 2019 pick and the EK situation is such a dark cloud.

I have no idea what you guys are going to do, and it just feels like whatever they do, it could set up success or failure for the next 5+ years for this franchise.

You go Brady Tkachuk no matter what.....but bc hes already committed to BU, are they interested in trying to get a guy to help them next year? Or stay the course and deal with the 2019 chips as they may fall?
david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Apr 28 @ 8:20 PM ET
Carolina is looking to add more edge / nastiness to their forward corps... who knows, maybe they grab Tkachuk if they are third.
Buffalo - Dahlin
Montreal - Svechnikov (they love their Russians)
Carolina - Tkachuk

I'm fine with either of the three forwards.

- SensFan25


Dont see svech or zadina dropping to 4
DDM-Coga
Colorado Avalanche
Location: If Chabot is not in the NHL, Ill revoke my account - AlfiesSald, AB
Joined: 07.24.2009

Apr 28 @ 8:22 PM ET
Dont see svech or zadina dropping to 4
- david22


if you listen to the Elliot Freedman 31 thoughts podcast (you should if you dont its awesome)...he mentions that the owner basically says Aho is the only guy that they love.

They are moving in a brand new direction and I dont think they will the typical Canes we are used to at drafts. If they are 2-3...they go with one of the Euro fwds
sportsdataguy
Ottawa Senators
Location: NS
Joined: 11.24.2014

Apr 28 @ 8:22 PM ET
Carolina is looking to add more edge / nastiness to their forward corps... who knows, maybe they grab Tkachuk if they are third.
Buffalo - Dahlin
Montreal - Svechnikov (they love their Russians)
Carolina - Tkachuk

I'm fine with either of the three forwards.

- SensFan25


Yeah, that'd definitely make it a little more interesting!
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Apr 28 @ 8:24 PM ET
NHL back to their ol' fixing tricks! what BS...
- Raven33

You mean they got the pick they were statistically the most likely to get? What a crazy idea.

Picking at #4 assures them one of the high-end wingers, or their choice of any non-Dahlin defenceman. The really interesting scenario would be if Svechnikov was the winger who fell to #4, because I really don't think they'd pick a Russian with the most important draft pick in recent franchise history. That might even lead to the possibility of trading down a few spots in the draft if there was a team that was especially keen on Svechnikov (eg. Detroit at #6?).
Raven33
Ottawa Senators
Location: Jenn, stop copying me as I copy Garth myself! - Andrew S.
Joined: 11.12.2008

Apr 28 @ 8:25 PM ET
Well that's the glass-half-empty look at it. No 1st rounder next year UNLESS we acquire one. Karlsson is the next HUGE decision, at least this year's selection should now be simpler for PD. Poor guy has enough to juggle, so that can only be a good thing?

My own hope is that Melnyk sees the value in keeping Karlsson around for ticket sales if nothing else. Ideally he'd only be traded IF he gets a substantial offer which is worthy of a franchise player. Otherwise, bring out the pitchforks!

- sportsdataguy



oh my glass has been pretty much empty since the end of 2017...i was hoping for either the lottery draft or Karlsson re-signing to fill it back up (or melnyk to get the hell out)...suspected to be disappointed on both fronts and one has now been officially confirmed...the other is pretty much UN-officially confirmed...
Raven33
Ottawa Senators
Location: Jenn, stop copying me as I copy Garth myself! - Andrew S.
Joined: 11.12.2008

Apr 28 @ 8:27 PM ET
You mean they got the pick they were statistically the most likely to get? What a crazy idea.

Picking at #4 assures them one of the high-end wingers, or their choice of any non-Dahlin defenceman. The really interesting scenario would be if Svechnikov was the winger who fell to #4, because I really don't think they'd pick a Russian with the most important draft pick in recent franchise history. That might even lead to the possibility of trading down a few spots in the draft if there was a team that was really keen on Svechnikov (eg. Detroit at #6?).

- khawk


was tongue in cheek but tell those statistics for Carolina or mtl...
sportsdataguy
Ottawa Senators
Location: NS
Joined: 11.24.2014

Apr 28 @ 8:31 PM ET
oh my glass has been pretty much empty since the end of 2017...i was hoping for either the lottery draft or Karlsson re-signing to fill it back up (or melnyk to get the hell out)...suspected to be disappointed on both fronts and one has now been officially confirmed...the other is pretty much UN-officially confirmed...
- Raven33


If Karlsson is traded for an underwhelming return (esp. b/c Bobby Ryan is included) then I'll be joining you. But I'm still holding out hope that this can be turned around a bit. There's a whole set of dominoes which all hinge on Karlsson ... Stone and Duchene are watching I'm sure.
Raven33
Ottawa Senators
Location: Jenn, stop copying me as I copy Garth myself! - Andrew S.
Joined: 11.12.2008

Apr 28 @ 8:41 PM ET
If Karlsson is traded for an underwhelming return (esp. b/c Bobby Ryan is included) then I'll be joining you. But I'm still holding out hope that this can be turned around a bit. There's a whole set of dominoes which all hinge on Karlsson ... Stone and Duchene are watching I'm sure.
- sportsdataguy


yeah...I was SO close to not renew my Sens season tix last month...Waited to the very last day of renewal, I usually renew on the first possible day. Will know on July 1st (or before) if this is my last year after 12 years of being a STH...
I know a bunch who didn't renew including the guy sitting next to me who has been a STH since the start!
Just getting tired of this BS with Melnyk screwing everything all the time... from Alfie to Karlsson to apparently now quitting on Lebreton Flatts project...Always screaming poor and meddling in hockey things...
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Apr 28 @ 8:47 PM ET
was tongue in cheek but tell those statistics for Carolina or mtl...
- Raven33

Right, but it was roughly just as likely for any number of other combination of teams to find their way into the top-3 ahead of Ottawa, and this is the 2nd straight year where a team that finished outside the bottom-10 nabbed a top-3 pick. In fact, the #10-#15 ranked teams had the same combined chance of winning the draft lottery that Ottawa had at #2. Which specific teams got lucky in the draft lottery is less relevant than the fact that Ottawa was quite a bit more likely to pick at 4-5 than 1-3.

Either way, it's still the highest pick they've had in a very long time, so hopefully they pull a solid building block for the team going forward.

Here's an update of some of the #4 picks from several mock drafts...
draftsite - Tkachuk
mynhldraft - Bouchard
tankathon - Tkachuk
bleacherreport - Wahlstrom
sportingnews - Tkachuk
draftanalyst - Tkachuk
david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Apr 28 @ 9:04 PM ET
Right, but it was roughly just as likely for any number of other combination of teams to find their way into the top-3 ahead of Ottawa, and this is the 2nd straight year where a team that finished outside the bottom-10 nabbed a top-3 pick. In fact, the #10-#15 ranked teams had the same combined chance of winning the draft lottery that Ottawa had at #2. Which specific teams got lucky in the draft lottery is less relevant than the fact that Ottawa was quite a bit more likely to pick at 4-5 than 1-3.

Either way, it's still the highest pick they've had in a very long time, so hopefully they pull a solid building block for the team going forward.

Here's an update of some of the #4 picks from several mock drafts...
draftsite - Tkachuk
mynhldraft - Bouchard
tankathon - Tkachuk
bleacherreport - Wahlstrom
sportingnews - Tkachuk
draftanalyst - Tkachuk

- khawk


Bouchards gained a lot of ground recently.

Its him or tkachuck it seems. Although i think most feel tkachuck is 4.
Confidenceking77
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Confidence Capital, BC
Joined: 12.24.2017

Apr 28 @ 9:27 PM ET
thanks?
- AlfieisKing

Raven33
Ottawa Senators
Location: Jenn, stop copying me as I copy Garth myself! - Andrew S.
Joined: 11.12.2008

Apr 28 @ 10:13 PM ET



at least not the habs!
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