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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: A loss from the jaws of victory
Author Message
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Mar 16 @ 6:57 PM ET
I only skipped through his links below but already a huge difference for me was the toi players faced against the opposition top guys.

Rust hasn't any where near the toi against Kucherov, Barzal, McDavid, Stamkos, Tavares Eichel - I stopped looking.

So the main players for an opposition team are the ones that will score the most you would think. Knuckles on the ice môre than Rust for example - some double the time according to the links when you play with the formulae. Coincidence? Maybe, or the coach puts the better attacker on the ice against the weaker PP unit. Rust is by far a better player than Knuckles in that respect - no stats to back my opinion up, sorry.

Also, if Crosby is getting scored on a lot because he is on the ice more than most, We accept that as he doesn't a lot of great things. But he is still getting scored on! The PK isn't a place where coaches are looking to score, if they can that's great. If they can spend the time in the O zone great - I doubt any coach wants to risk breakaways 4 on 5 though so defending is a major factor on the PK.

I'm not saying Knuckles is great, but people getting paid a lot of $$$$$ has the 2 time Cup winner doing it. It's people like boyd that think he knows more! (like shots on goal are a garbage stat ).

- Aussiepenguin


Dude... you ever heard of brevity?
Aussiepenguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Sydney
Joined: 08.02.2014

Mar 16 @ 7:25 PM ET
Dude... you ever heard of brevity?
- Rinosaur




Is that movie with George Clooney & Sandra Bullock?

My iPad writes words on its own, & on top of that I write In French sometimes so it throws accents onto letters.

Now (frank) off. Just stick to ignoring me & be a good fella. Connard.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Mar 16 @ 8:14 PM ET
I only skipped through his links below but already a huge difference for me was the toi players faced against the opposition top guys.

Rust hasn't any where near the toi against Kucherov, Barzal, McDavid, Stamkos, Tavares Eichel - I stopped looking.

So the main players for an opposition team are the ones that will score the most you would think. Knuckles on the ice môre than Rust for example - some double the time according to the links when you play with the formulae. Coincidence? Maybe, or the coach puts the better attacker on the ice against the weaker PP unit. Rust is by far a better player than Knuckles in that respect - no stats to back my opinion up, sorry.

Also, if Crosby is getting scored on a lot because he is on the ice more than most, We accept that as he doesn't a lot of great things. But he is still getting scored on! The PK isn't a place where coaches are looking to score, if they can that's great. If they can spend the time in the O zone great - I doubt any coach wants to risk breakaways 4 on 5 though so defending is a major factor on the PK.

I'm not saying Knuckles is great, but people getting paid a lot of $$$$$ has the 2 time Cup winner doing it. It's people like boyd that think he knows more! (like shots on goal are a garbage stat ).

- Aussiepenguin


No.
Aussiepenguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Sydney
Joined: 08.02.2014

Mar 16 @ 8:26 PM ET
No.
- j.boyd919


Love your work.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Mar 16 @ 8:50 PM ET


Is that movie with George Clooney & Sandra Bullock?

My iPad writes words on its own, & on top of that I write In French sometimes so it throws accents onto letters.

Now (frank) off. Just stick to ignoring me & be a good fella. Connard.

- Aussiepenguin


"nah" - j.boyd919
Aussiepenguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Sydney
Joined: 08.02.2014

Mar 16 @ 9:20 PM ET
"nah" - j.boyd919
- Rinosaur


To quote me, just (frank) off!

No seriously, just (frank) off!

Ok ok ok, now, just (frank) off!

No, no, I'm only joking, just (frank) off!

Didn't see any comparable Knuckles statistics from previous years, & your sample size story - well it's just that, a story.

Do you actually know how Sully plays his PK & which players he picks to mark which opposition players? Are there stats for that or do you just read & Not think? That is a question, but it's not rhetorical & does place onus on you as someone who supports stats to actually know what is going on.

Again my comments will get the classic 1 word response because you are unable to discuss what the topic is as statistics don't give you any reason or any information on how to justify them. So go ahead punk, make my day........

Oh yeah, just (frank) off!

Edit: that was for Boydy.

You, well you can just (frank) off as well.

I'm under pressure here, it's 35*C & im knocking down brick walls in my home!
DeflatedPucks
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: NYC, NY
Joined: 04.29.2016

Mar 16 @ 10:17 PM ET
To quote me, just (frank) off!

No seriously, just (frank) off!

Ok ok ok, now, just (frank) off!

No, no, I'm only joking, just (frank) off!

Didn't see any comparable Knuckles statistics from previous years, & your sample size story - well it's just that, a story.

Do you actually know how Sully plays his PK & which players he picks to mark which opposition players? Are there stats for that or do you just read & Not think? That is a question, but it's not rhetorical & does place onus on you as someone who supports stats to actually know what is going on.

Again my comments will get the classic 1 word response because you are unable to discuss what the topic is as statistics don't give you any reason or any information on how to justify them. So go ahead punk, make my day........

Oh yeah, just (frank) off!

Edit: that was for Boydy.

You, well you can just (frank) off as well.

I'm under pressure here, it's 35*C & im knocking down brick walls in my home
!

- Aussiepenguin

I feel ya man. You also gotta watch out for dem dingos running with ya baby.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Mar 16 @ 10:24 PM ET
I feel ya man. You also gotta watch out for dem dingos running with ya baby.
- DeflatedPucks


I legitimately laughed out loud hard... like a serious chortle.
Aussiepenguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Sydney
Joined: 08.02.2014

Mar 16 @ 10:30 PM ET
I feel ya man. You also gotta watch out for dem dingos running with ya baby.
- DeflatedPucks


Brown snakes or the red bellies on the way down to Yarra bay, or the great whites when you actually get wet. Dingos?

It's fun when you're surfing late in the afternoon which I've been doing lately, you start to look down a bit hoping not to see a dark shadow................

Unless it's seeweed!
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Mar 16 @ 10:32 PM ET
To quote me, just (frank) off!

No seriously, just (frank) off!

Ok ok ok, now, just (frank) off!

No, no, I'm only joking, just (frank) off!

Didn't see any comparable Knuckles statistics from previous years, & your sample size story - well it's just that, a story.

Do you actually know how Sully plays his PK & which players he picks to mark which opposition players? Are there stats for that or do you just read & Not think? That is a question, but it's not rhetorical & does place onus on you as someone who supports stats to actually know what is going on.

Again my comments will get the classic 1 word response because you are unable to discuss what the topic is as statistics don't give you any reason or any information on how to justify them. So go ahead punk, make my day........

Oh yeah, just (frank) off!

Edit: that was for Boydy.

You, well you can just (frank) off as well.

I'm under pressure here, it's 35*C & im knocking down brick walls in my home!

- Aussiepenguin


Broseph, I don't even know the topic is.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Mar 16 @ 10:48 PM ET
Broseph, I don't even know the topic is.
- Rinosaur


Hahahahah.
Aussiepenguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Sydney
Joined: 08.02.2014

Mar 16 @ 11:59 PM ET
I'm not taking it personally, we're just having a discussion.

What stat would you have liked to see for objectivity?

Eye test is subjective which is why I use stats as well. My eye test says Kuhnhackl is a very brave penalty killer for how he blocks shots, yet due to his lack of footspeed he doesn't get where he needs to fast enough to pressure the PP leading to a lot of controlled zone time against. So I don't think he's a particularly good penalty killer despite his reputation as one.

But then if your eye test says he is, what do we have to discuss? So I point out he is on the ice for 9.92 goals against per 60 (note only used 4v5 data because I thought that was more fair). Contrasted against Sheahan 5.66 and Hagelin 5.77 (theirs rose slightly last night) and I don't see a guy earning his spot based on his penalty killing prowess. Especially since he usually goes against 2nd units while Sheahan and Hagelin usually go first.

- Tojo.


Note to Boydy. Don't read the below, as therè are questions.

Firstly the PK is not an individual sport, it's a team that is killing penalties. So how is the Pens PK with Knuckles on it?

Does anyone know how the PK is implemented, how does Sully rotate his players & are there specific players or groups that's he wants to target with certain players?

The Pk pairs? WoWY stats may be helpful when summarising a players performance, also recent data showing how they went previously & are the same players PK the same way?

I've got to go, the beach is calling. But to justify any opinion there must be comparables not just specific data identifying 'certain' things.

Also, who else is going to kill penalties & what is the data on those players?
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Mar 17 @ 8:41 AM ET
Note to Boydy. Don't read the below, as therè are questions.

Firstly the PK is not an individual sport, it's a team that is killing penalties. So how is the Pens PK with Knuckles on it?

Does anyone know how the PK is implemented, how does Sully rotate his players & are there specific players or groups that's he wants to target with certain players?

The Pk pairs? WoWY stats may be helpful when summarising a players performance, also recent data showing how they went previously & are the same players PK the same way?

I've got to go, the beach is calling. But to justify any opinion there must be comparables not just specific data identifying 'certain' things.

Also, who else is going to kill penalties & what is the data on those players?

- Aussiepenguin

The PK is bad with TK on it. While it is a team activity as Feds pointed out his rates for corsi, shots against, scoring chances against, and goals against are among the worst in the league. The one area he performs well is preventing high danger chances.

He is worst on the team among their 11 PKers with 50 minutes in goals, SA, and corsi, and 2nd worst in SCA, often by significant margins then most players. Below is the link to the chart if you want to check yourself as I am not typing out all the numbers.

The current groups are Sheahan-Hagelin-Letang-Dumo and Kuhnhackl-Rowney-Maatta-Oleksiak. Over a season these groups are fluid and players tend to play with lots of different combos. That's why I'd argue looking at rates is the most important data. It's hard to say his teammates are dragging him down since everyone else has better rates.

As for who I'd use instead and their data. Rust is the proven answer. His CA60 is 19 better, SA60 is 12 better, GA60 is 2 better, SCA60 11.5 better, and HDCA only .16 worse. I'd play Rowney over Kuhnhackl if forced to choose between the 2 for a proven PK specialist.

Whay I'd like to see is some guys with small sample sizes get a larger chance to prove themselves. I won't list their rates because they're all ridiculously low and would have to go up with more ice time but Guentzel 18 minutes ZAR 6 minutes and Brassard 4 minutes all have great rates, look good to me as far as eye test, and none have been on for a goal against. I most liked what I saw watching ZAR and think he has the makings of a really strong penalty killer so he'd be my first choice, but Jake has a larger sample to look at while still having great rates. That he has yet to let up a goal in 18 minutes while Kuhnhackl lets up one every 10 minutes makes me say he deserves a chance.

As you often say about the 4th liners, give them the ice time to prove if they can do the job. We know Kuhnhackl is bad. Maybe these guys would be to if given more time, but so far all they've shown is they could be better.
Aussiepenguin
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Sydney
Joined: 08.02.2014

Mar 17 @ 9:12 AM ET
The PK is bad with TK on it. While it is a team activity as Feds pointed out his rates for corsi, shots against, scoring chances against, and goals against are among the worst in the league. The one area he performs well is preventing high danger chances.

He is worst on the team among their 11 PKers with 50 minutes in goals, SA, and corsi, and 2nd worst in SCA, often by significant margins then most players. Below is the link to the chart if you want to check yourself as I am not typing out all the numbers.

The current groups are Sheahan-Hagelin-Letang-Dumo and Kuhnhackl-Rowney-Maatta-Oleksiak. Over a season these groups are fluid and players tend to play with lots of different combos. That's why I'd argue looking at rates is the most important data. It's hard to say his teammates are dragging him down since everyone else has better rates.

As for who I'd use instead and their data. Rust is the proven answer. His CA60 is 19 better, SA60 is 12 better, GA60 is 2 better, SCA60 11.5 better, and HDCA only .16 worse. I'd play Rowney over Kuhnhackl if forced to choose between the 2 for a proven PK specialist.

Whay I'd like to see is some guys with small sample sizes get a larger chance to prove themselves. I won't list their rates because they're all ridiculously low and would have to go up with more ice time but Guentzel 18 minutes ZAR 6 minutes and Brassard 4 minutes all have great rates, look good to me as far as eye test, and none have been on for a goal against. I most liked what I saw watching ZAR and think he has the makings of a really strong penalty killer so he'd be my first choice, but Jake has a larger sample to look at while still having great rates. That he has yet to let up a goal in 18 minutes while Kuhnhackl lets up one every 10 minutes makes me say he deserves a chance.

As you often say about the 4th liners, give them the ice time to prove if they can do the job. We know Kuhnhackl is bad. Maybe these guys would be to if given more time, but so far all they've shown is they could be better.

- Tojo.


If you look at TOI against players on 1 of the links (you have to change a setting), Knuckles has big times against a lot of the top guys being McD, Tavares, Kucherov, Eichel, Barzal & a few others. That cannot be ignored & it would be interesting to see how many goals those guys scored against Knuckles. Rust is significantly less against those top guys, my guess is Sully wants Rust attacking the weaker PP guys & hopefully picking off the occasional shorty. You say goals against, who was he playing with - maybe I'm missing something there. How can you single out 1 player unless you total up all GA which I imagine how it's calculated. Corsi for me is not a stat that has any credit as +- hasn't with analytics guys. So who was on the ice for his GA is something i would want to know.

Again Im not saying Knuckles is good, but a coach who just took the Pens to consecutive cups plays him for some reason.

I'm just lost at people throwing numbers around on here Dilly Dilly & saying player X is poop when he just won 2 cups. If you cannot nominate a player to replace Knuckles it's all useless anyway - only good for chitter chatter with & about various different numbers. Hell FedsSteamer couldn't keep track of what he was saying.

It's an interesting topic especially seeing as though a few people say anyone can PK. I'd love some type of info from the coaches & what their thought process is on PK. That's where numbers would be less important in my mind, & structure more important.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Mar 17 @ 9:57 AM ET
If you look at TOI against players on 1 of the links (you have to change a setting), Knuckles has big times against a lot of the top guys being McD, Tavares, Kucherov, Eichel, Barzal & a few others. That cannot be ignored & it would be interesting to see how many goals those guys scored against Knuckles. Rust is significantly less against those top guys, my guess is Sully wants Rust attacking the weaker PP guys & hopefully picking off the occasional shorty. You say goals against, who was he playing with - maybe I'm missing something there. How can you single out 1 player unless you total up all GA which I imagine how it's calculated. Corsi for me is not a stat that has any credit as +- hasn't with analytics guys. So who was on the ice for his GA is something i would want to know.

Again Im not saying Knuckles is good, but a coach who just took the Pens to consecutive cups plays him for some reason.

I'm just lost at people throwing numbers around on here Dilly Dilly & saying player X is poop when he just won 2 cups. If you cannot nominate a player to replace Knuckles it's all useless anyway - only good for chitter chatter with & about various different numbers. Hell FedsSteamer couldn't keep track of what he was saying.

It's an interesting topic especially seeing as though a few people say anyone can PK. I'd love some type of info from the coaches & what their thought process is on PK. That's where numbers would be less important in my mind, & structure more important.

- Aussiepenguin

I don't believe just anyone can PK, so I agree with you there.

I nominated 4 guys: Rust, ZAR, Guentzel and Brassard. They have not seen the time Kuhnhackl has, so they would need to be given that opportunity first. Sheahan and Hagelin are the guys I'd use against the other team's best.

Kuhnhackl is not the only player who sees time against top guys, yet he has significantly worse rates. So those guys are doing a better job than him.

Again I'll point out the same coach scratched him for 14 of the 25 playoff games last year so he didn't see him as a necessity as recently as last playoffs.

If you want to comb through every goal against be my guest. I use rates because it averages out everything including who you've played with and against. I feel you're using it as a straw man argument by saying if you looked at each individual goal against you MIGHT show Kuhnhackl is a victim of circumstances.

That he's giving up more goals on average than any other Pen, backed up by he's giving up high numbers of shots and scoring chances, is enough to say he's not an ace penalty killer. That is supposedly his main reason for being in the line-up.

So I would try giving other guys some more PK time to see if they could do the job. If ZAR, Guentzel, and Brassard all wilt under greater minutes, I'd still bench Kuhnhackl and go with Sheahan, Hagelin, Rust, and Rowney as my 4 PKers. If one of them succeeds, I'd also bench Rowney.
Grinder47
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somerset, PA
Joined: 10.20.2013

Mar 17 @ 10:04 AM ET
I'm not sure if you realize this, but the people who create these stats watch more hockey than probably anyone (aside from coaches/players/etc.). This whole "watch the game, nerd" thing with stat people is so far off base it's not even funny. Some of the guys who create these databases create them solely from watching the game and manually tracking events. Watching game tape over and over. (specifically @shutdownline and his 3-zone project.)
- j.boyd919

Yes they watch a poop ton of hockey, they are not dissecting it the same way a coach would though. They are simply recording data. I can’t count how many times the word f**k appears in a movie without undstandibg what’s going on. If that’s how you choose to enjoy a sport that has a lot of raw emotion and borderline violence, amazing blocked shots, fights, devestating hits and skill that’s up to you. However hockey never was a clean cut, packaged up, family friendly American “don’t hit to hurt” sport. Quit trying to act like it should be. It’s Canadian as (frank) and has already had way to much American influence on it.
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

Mar 17 @ 11:21 AM ET
Full practice for MM today
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Mar 17 @ 11:21 AM ET
Also forgot Jooris who is a known PKer.

I do expect Sulky to stay mostly with the guys he knows and choose between Rowney or Kuhnhackl for one roster spot. There just aren't enough games and they lack the ability to healthy scratch a forward without using a recall (and there isn't much left especially if they need to replace Rowney anyways). I'd be giving Guentzel more PK time but that's just me.
Guile
Joined: 03.04.2014

Mar 17 @ 11:31 AM ET
Wow you guys post long messages that I have no desire to read... but I saw Jooris brought up somewhere. I hope he plays some. Otherwise its just a wasted trade for no real reason.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Mar 17 @ 11:45 AM ET
Wow you guys post long messages that I have no desire to read... but I saw Jooris brought up somewhere. I hope he plays some. Otherwise its just a wasted trade for no real reason.
- Guile


That’s why I made the brevity comment to
Mr. Australian Cliffs Notes earlier.

And yes, I’m officially a fan of Jooris.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Mar 17 @ 12:50 PM ET
Wow you guys post long messages that I have no desire to read... but I saw Jooris brought up somewhere. I hope he plays some. Otherwise its just a wasted trade for no real reason.
- Guile

Yeah, it's pretty much a 2 person convo at this point.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Mar 17 @ 1:21 PM ET
Yeah, it's pretty much a 2 person convo at this point.
- Tojo.


You guys are writing novels lol
willi
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Canada
Joined: 01.30.2015

Mar 17 @ 1:29 PM ET
I don't believe just anyone can PK, so I agree with you there.

I nominated 4 guys: Rust, ZAR, Guentzel and Brassard. They have not seen the time Kuhnhackl has, so they would need to be given that opportunity first. Sheahan and Hagelin are the guys I'd use against the other team's best.

Kuhnhackl is not the only player who sees time against top guys, yet he has significantly worse rates. So those guys are doing a better job than him.

Again I'll point out the same coach scratched him for 14 of the 25 playoff games last year so he didn't see him as a necessity as recently as last playoffs.

If you want to comb through every goal against be my guest. I use rates because it averages out everything including who you've played with and against. I feel you're using it as a straw man argument by saying if you looked at each individual goal against you MIGHT show Kuhnhackl is a victim of circumstances.

That he's giving up more goals on average than any other Pen, backed up by he's giving up high numbers of shots and scoring chances, is enough to say he's not an ace penalty killer. That is supposedly his main reason for being in the line-up.

So I would try giving other guys some more PK time to see if they could do the job. If ZAR, Guentzel, and Brassard all wilt under greater minutes, I'd still bench Kuhnhackl and go with Sheahan, Hagelin, Rust, and Rowney as my 4 PKers. If one of them succeeds, I'd also bench Rowney.

- Tojo.


Was Kuhnhackl a healthy scratch for all 14 playoff games he didn't play? I thought it was due to injury
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Mar 17 @ 2:06 PM ET
Yes they watch a poop ton of hockey, they are not dissecting it the same way a coach would though. They are simply recording data. I can’t count how many times the word f**k appears in a movie without undstandibg what’s going on. If that’s how you choose to enjoy a sport that has a lot of raw emotion and borderline violence, amazing blocked shots, fights, devestating hits and skill that’s up to you. However hockey never was a clean cut, packaged up, family friendly American “don’t hit to hurt” sport. Quit trying to act like it should be. It’s Canadian as (frank) and has already had way to much American influence on it.
- Grinder47


Wut? Hahahaha I never once said that. I enjoy everything that you stated. That poop and stats don't have to be mutually exclusive. I can enjoy ALL of that as well as enjoy the numbers. I'm not really sure where the one or the other idea came from? I've been watching hockey since I was like 5, so I get all of the poop you're talking about, but again, that doesn't mean that stats are meaningless. And no they aren't "just recording data." Most of the guys that make those stats, play hockey, have played hockey, and study hockey (systems, styles, etc.) so no, they aren't "just recording data." That's a really bad misconception.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Mar 17 @ 2:07 PM ET
Wow you guys post long messages that I have no desire to read... but I saw Jooris brought up somewhere. I hope he plays some. Otherwise its just a wasted trade for no real reason.
- Guile


Depth. In case someone gets hurt. That's the real reason.
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