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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: A loss from the jaws of victory
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Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Mar 16 @ 9:57 AM ET
Per natural stat trick there are 84 forwards with at least 100 mins at 4v5.

Kuhnackl has:

the 5th worst REL CA60

the 3rd worst REL FA60

the 5th worst REL SA60

the 14th worst REL SCA60

the 9th best REL HDCA60

the 6th worst REL GA60

the 12th worst oiSV%

What does this mean? It would appear that while the team bleeds more shots when he is on the ice they do not give up as many high danger chances or goals. To confirm this you would need to do a deeper analysis on the PK system and usage of other players in conjunction with Kuhnackl.

EDIT: He sucks at goals against too. Looks like he sucks at the PK. I need more caffeine.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

Mar 16 @ 9:57 AM ET
Is that why they call him 'big boyd'?
- DeflatedPucks


Oh I'm big alright. Dcoms knows how big I am. He choked on it a few times.
madmike71
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 12.21.2006

Mar 16 @ 10:06 AM ET
I kinda feel bad for Jarry. MTL only registered 20 shots, but two of those goals were DEFINITELY not on him. The third? Ehhh, you could argue he could have had that, but it was such a bad breakdown by Letang.

Gotta love the RBK line. Rust definitely a good fit and you can see Brassard getting way more comfortable.

- Rinosaur


Malkin is playing like he wants to win some of the individual awards. He's dynamic every time he hits the ice. We just need to get Sid's line going. They were better last night, but not quite there yet. Hopefully Simon and/or ZAR come back soon to give them options. Yohe said they expect ZAR back for playoffs. Not sure how effective he'll be if he's not even skating.

Yeah, Rust has been a God Send for the 3rd line.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Mar 16 @ 10:09 AM ET
Malkin is playing like he wants to win some of the individual awards. He's dynamic every time he hits the ice. We just need to get Sid's line going. They were better last night, but not quite there yet. Hopefully Simon and/or ZAR come back soon to give them options. Yohe said they expect ZAR back for playoffs. Not sure how effective he'll be if he's not even skating.

Yeah, Rust has been a God Send for the 3rd line.

- madmike71


Even before Rust was added to that line you could see Brass getting more and more comfortable.

As far as Sid's line? Look, Sid has probably had his weakest year, but he's still got it. That line will take off when Sid gets out of his own head. I think he's just been in some kind of weird mind space this year.
DeflatedPucks
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: NYC, NY
Joined: 04.29.2016

Mar 16 @ 10:10 AM ET
I kinda feel bad for Jarry. MTL only registered 20 shots, but two of those goals were DEFINITELY not on him. The third? Ehhh, you could argue he could have had that, but it was such a bad breakdown by Letang.

Gotta love the RBK line. Rust definitely a good fit and you can see Brassard getting way more comfortable.

- Rinosaur


Oh please. I remember prior to the trade deadline when half this thread was "trade rust/sheary/guentzel." And now everybody loves him. Lol
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Mar 16 @ 10:15 AM ET
Even before Rust was added to that line you could see Brass getting more and more comfortable.

As far as Sid's line? Look, Sid has probably had his weakest year, but he's still got it. That line will take off when Sid gets out of his own head. I think he's just been in some kind of weird mind space this year.

- Rinosaur

Crosby is all related to the random variability of shooting percentage. Both individually and on ice.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Mar 16 @ 10:19 AM ET
Has there been any change in 4v5 CA60 SCA60 or HDCA60 though?
- Feds91Stammer

CA60 is down 11.53%
SCA60 is down 2.93%

HDCA is up 6.75%
GA60 is up 6.99% (more than double from 6.25 to 13.24)

Probably a combination of bad luck and giving up more high quality chances then. Of note 6 of the 10 goals have come against the second unit when Cole would have played. It's an early but troubling sign to me.
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Mar 16 @ 10:20 AM ET
CA60 is down 11.53%
SCA60 is down 2.93%

HDCA is up 6.75%
GA60 is up 6.99% (more than double from 6.25 to 13.24)

Probably a combination of bad luck and giving up more high quality chances then. Of note 6 of the 10 goals have come against the second unit when Cole would have played. It's an early but troubling sign to me.

- Tojo.

Who took Cole's spot on the PK?
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Mar 16 @ 10:22 AM ET
Oh please. I remember prior to the trade deadline when half this thread was "trade rust/sheary/guentzel." And now everybody loves him. Lol
- DeflatedPucks

I really don't recall why people wanted to trade Rust or Guentzel. Sheary I get.
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

Mar 16 @ 10:22 AM ET
CA60 is down 11.53%
SCA60 is down 2.93%

HDCA is up 6.75%
GA60 is up 6.99% (more than double from 6.25 to 13.24)

Probably a combination of bad luck and giving up more high quality chances then. Of note 6 of the 10 goals have come against the second unit when Cole would have played. It's an early but troubling sign to me.

- Tojo.



There's a Murray factor in all of this too. There have been a lot of goals the past few weeks I think he would of stopped. He also has a cool calm collected swagger that rubs off.

Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Mar 16 @ 10:24 AM ET
There's a Murray factor in all of this too. There have been a lot of goals the past few weeks I think he would of stopped. He also has a cool calm collected swagger that rubs off.
- MattStrat

5 game rolling average of 4v5 sv% would be good to look at
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Mar 16 @ 10:24 AM ET
Per natural stat trick there are 84 forwards with at least 100 mins at 4v5.

Kuhnackl has:

the 5th worst REL CA60

the 3rd worst REL FA60

the 5th worst REL SA60

the 14th worst REL SCA60

the 9th best REL HDCA60

the 6th best REL GA60

the 12th worst oiSV%

What does this mean? It would appear that while the team bleeds more shots when he is on the ice they do not give up as many high danger chances or goals. To confirm this you would need to do a deeper analysis on the PK system and usage of other players in conjunction with Kuhnackl.

- Feds91Stammer

How does REL GA60 work because he has a high GA60? I can't understand how that would be low but his actual GA60 is so high.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Mar 16 @ 10:26 AM ET
There's a Murray factor in all of this too. There have been a lot of goals the past few weeks I think he would of stopped. He also has a cool calm collected swagger that rubs off.
- MattStrat

That's a good point.
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Mar 16 @ 10:28 AM ET
How does REL GA60 work because he has a high GA60? I can't understand how that would be low but his actual GA60 is so high.
- Tojo.

Whoops I got that one backwards
madmike71
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 12.21.2006

Mar 16 @ 10:33 AM ET
I really don't recall why people wanted to trade Rust or Guentzel. Sheary I get.
- Tojo.


I don't remember anybody wanting to trade them. People were just guessing it would take players like that to get somebody good. If you believe the rumors, Ott didn't want Sheary or he would have been gone.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Mar 16 @ 10:35 AM ET
Oh please. I remember prior to the trade deadline when half this thread was "trade rust/sheary/guentzel." And now everybody loves him. Lol
- DeflatedPucks


For the record, I never wanted any of them traded. I’m not saying rust hasn’t had an impact on that line, I’m just saying don’t overlook that for Brassard is getting more comfortable
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Mar 16 @ 10:35 AM ET
I don't remember anybody wanting to trade them. People were just guessing it would take players like that to get somebody good. If you believe the rumors, Ott didn't want Sheary or he would have been gone.
- madmike71

Doubt that is the case. The good GMs make deadline deals where they don't have to move roster players.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Mar 16 @ 10:35 AM ET
Who took Cole's spot on the PK?
- Feds91Stammer

If they all played, Dumo-Letang and Cole-Hunwick were the pairings. Maatta when one was out which was pretty frequent. Oleksiak is the one who's playing a lot more lately with Cole gone and Hunwick being scratched.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Mar 16 @ 10:37 AM ET
Doubt that is the case. The good GMs make deadline deals where they don't have to move roster players.
- Feds91Stammer

Maybe Sheary would have gone in place of Cole.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Mar 16 @ 10:38 AM ET
Whoops I got that one backwards
- Feds91Stammer

OK, that makes more sense. So he's 6th worst there as well? So there's something to be said for limiting UFC while Kuhnhackl is killing penalties, but everywhere else he really struggles.
Thorny87
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Calgary, AB
Joined: 10.17.2014

Mar 16 @ 10:41 AM ET
I've just never really liked Rusty with Sid. I can't remember anyone saying lets get rid of him. He's one of the few guys that brings it every game.
madmike71
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 12.21.2006

Mar 16 @ 10:43 AM ET
Maybe Sheary would have gone in place of Cole.
- Tojo.


That's my thinking. We needed cap space and it's hard to imagine Rutherford wanting to weaken his D.
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Mar 16 @ 10:45 AM ET
If they all played, Dumo-Letang and Cole-Hunwick were the pairings. Maatta when one was out which was pretty frequent. Oleksiak is the one who's playing a lot more lately with Cole gone and Hunwick being scratched.
- Tojo.

Looking at the rates of the 7 D with at least 10 mins 4v5 with PIT this season Ruhwedel is the only one that looks bad compared to the others. I would guess any struggles since the Cole departure is forward or goalie related.
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Mar 16 @ 10:46 AM ET
Maybe Sheary would have gone in place of Cole.
- Tojo.

Meh Cole had been scratched way before the deadline and cleary wasn't part of the teams long term plans.
Tojo.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Aliquippa, PA
Joined: 11.11.2014

Mar 16 @ 10:52 AM ET
Meh Cole had been scratched way before the deadline and cleary wasn't part of the teams long term plans.
- Feds91Stammer

He hadn't been scratched for a while and his line-up spot seemed safe. He and Oleksiak had formed a nice pairing combined with Hunwick's struggles. Agree he wasn't in their long-term plans, but he was solid as a #6 and PK guy.
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