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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Pachla: Less than 20 games to go, Sabres fans. Buffalo at Tampa tonight.
Author Message
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Feb 28 @ 6:00 PM ET
5v5 numbers are bogus
I get what you’re trying to say with them
But comparing the 5v5 stats from a good team & a bad team aren’t valid

Take a look at 5v5 stats and you’ll find many many examples that make no sense

It’s not that they’re “outliers”
It’s that there’s a bunch of factors that go into a player’s production
And those factors are greatly helped when you’re on a good team,
VS when you’re on a bad team

- jdfitz77



i meant comparing myers' 5v5 stats from his days here
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Feb 28 @ 6:00 PM ET
id wager his 5v5 numbers look very similar to myers. Risto is trending in the wrong direction in both categories, i dont know how thats up for debate anymore.

The risto analytics debate was en fuego last year, now it's like "yeah whatever can we just be good again? "

- Sabresfan-365

Myers was a better 5 on 5 scorer, with worse teammates
jochfr
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Nashville , TN
Joined: 07.11.2009

Feb 28 @ 6:00 PM ET
5v5 doesn't matter or 5v5 is the only stat that matters?


Discuss.
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Feb 28 @ 6:01 PM ET
Yes
- SABRES 89


I won’t believe it till it happens
And it better not be some BS like Montreal winning it either, or Ottawa, or NrR, etc
F that noise

It’s our time!
(Hopefully)
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Feb 28 @ 6:01 PM ET
Maybe ROR fits here, I dont see how Risto does outside of pp specialist and defensive turnstile

Edit: ROR has fewer points 5v5 than Reinhart does

- Sabresfan-365


O'reilly's points go from 15 at 5v5 to 27 at even strength.
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Feb 28 @ 6:01 PM ET
Myers was a better 5 on 5 scorer, with worse teammates
- sbroads24



yea he didn't have eichel when he was here
Wetbandit1
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Unpopular opinion (i think): The best Die Hard movie is the 4th one- Live free or Die Hard -jdfitz7, NY
Joined: 10.07.2010

Feb 28 @ 6:02 PM ET
id wager his 5v5 numbers look very similar to myers. Risto is trending in the wrong direction in both categories, i dont know how thats up for debate anymore.

The risto analytics debate was en fuego last year, now it's like "yeah whatever can we just be good again? "

- Sabresfan-365


Risto's EV stats are about equal to last year, he has already matched his EV goal output from last year and only needs 4 EV assists to meet last year's output. His EV ppg is at .27 this year and .24 last year.

And yeah, I know he's played more this year. But it's not 48 points in year one to ~16(extrapolated, because he couldn't stay on the ice) in year 4 dropping every year that Myers did.
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Feb 28 @ 6:03 PM ET
i meant comparing myers' 5v5 stats from his days here
- Sabresfan-365


Even still
Different teammates
Different usage
Different opposition
And on & on

I get what u mean
But comparing players on different teams is really almost impossible unless u can somehow figure in ALL these factors
Not just the 5v5 pts one gets
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Feb 28 @ 6:04 PM ET
Risto's EV stas are about equal to last year, he has already matched his EV goal output from last year and only needs 4 EV assists to meet last year's output. His EV ppg is at .27 this year and .24 last year.

And yeah, I know he's played more this year. But it's not 48 points in year one to ~16(extrapolated, because he couldn't stay on the ice) in year 4 dropping every year that Myers did.

- Wetbandit1


but his bottomed out stats from when the sabres were at their worst are pretty comparable to risto's, major difference being sans eichel
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Feb 28 @ 6:05 PM ET
5v5 numbers are bogus
I get what you’re trying to say with them
But comparing the 5v5 stats from a good team & a bad team aren’t valid

Take a look at 5v5 stats and you’ll find many many examples that make no sense

It’s not that they’re “outliers”
It’s that there’s a bunch of factors that go into a player’s production
And those factors are greatly helped when you’re on a good team,
VS when you’re on a bad team

- jdfitz77

Us not being able to score 5 on 5 is the reason we aren’t a good team....
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Feb 28 @ 6:05 PM ET
Even still
Different teammates
Different usage
Different opposition
And on & on

I get what u mean
But comparing players on different teams is really almost impossible unless u can somehow figure in ALL these factors
Not just the 5v5 pts one gets

- jdfitz77


Myers had worse teammates
Myers actually received tougher zone starts in 13-14 than Risto is receiving this year
I dont see how opposition plays a factor. Both guys played against good and bad teams

I figured in the factors
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Feb 28 @ 6:06 PM ET
5v5 doesn't matter or 5v5 is the only stat that matters?


Discuss.

- jochfr

5 on 7 is more important
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Feb 28 @ 6:07 PM ET
Myers had worse teammates
Myers actually received tougher zone starts in 13-14 than Risto is receiving this year
I dont see how opposition plays a factor. Both guys played against good and bad teams

I figured in the factors

- Sabresfan-365


In an extremely general fashion
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Feb 28 @ 6:07 PM ET
Myers had worse teammates
Myers actually received tougher zone starts in 13-14 than Risto is receiving this year
I dont see how opposition plays a factor. Both guys played against good and bad teams

I figured in the factors

- Sabresfan-365

Myers p/60 was actually still top 50 among regular D men for a stretch of 3 years that included the 13-14 year
jochfr
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Nashville , TN
Joined: 07.11.2009

Feb 28 @ 6:08 PM ET
5 on 7 is more important
- sbroads24

Do Curlers play as the 7th guy?
Wetbandit1
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Unpopular opinion (i think): The best Die Hard movie is the 4th one- Live free or Die Hard -jdfitz7, NY
Joined: 10.07.2010

Feb 28 @ 6:08 PM ET
but his bottomed out stats from when the sabres were at their worst are pretty comparable to risto's, major difference being sans eichel
- Sabresfan-365


I'm also not trying to say he's a #1.

I was just saying that Myers went in the wrong direction both in his points and his on ice play.

Risto has gotten better in points. He seems more engaged, especially in front of the net, and he's not afraid to take the puck and skate with it like Myers was.
Wetbandit1
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Unpopular opinion (i think): The best Die Hard movie is the 4th one- Live free or Die Hard -jdfitz7, NY
Joined: 10.07.2010

Feb 28 @ 6:10 PM ET
Myers p/60 was actually still top 50 among regular D men for a stretch of 3 years that included the 13-14 year
- sbroads24


Yeah, but when you're not on the ice you can't score. Isn't that the exact thing you bashed Kane on?
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Feb 28 @ 6:10 PM ET
Us not being able to score 5 on 5 is the reason we aren’t a good team....
- sbroads24


Sure...
but WHY can’t we score 5v5?

Didn’t u say earlier that Armia has only 1 less goal than Kane at 5v5?

Is your hate on Kane so strong that u really believe their goal scoring abilities to be essentially equal?

Come on man

And there’s many many other examples that don’t make sense as well when u look at the raw 5v5 numbers

U call them “outliers”
But when there’s so many, it really just shows it’s a flawed stat
Wetbandit1
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Unpopular opinion (i think): The best Die Hard movie is the 4th one- Live free or Die Hard -jdfitz7, NY
Joined: 10.07.2010

Feb 28 @ 6:11 PM ET
Yeah, but when you're not on the ice you can't score. Isn't that the exact thing you bashed Kane on?
- Wetbandit1


Look, we get it, you hate the trade.

The fact that you think you don't exercise confirmation bias just like everyone else is the funny part.

Edit: Yes. I quoted myself.
Irish 14
Location: South Buffalo
Joined: 01.25.2007

Feb 28 @ 6:11 PM ET
67.7% on face offs

5/5 his % is bullish!t

Bla bla freaking bla

Get good players and you will start winning!

And a goalie......
jochfr
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Nashville , TN
Joined: 07.11.2009

Feb 28 @ 6:12 PM ET
Look, we get it, you hate the trade.

The fact that you think you don't exercise confirmation bias just like everyone else is the funny part.

- Wetbandit1

You hating on yourself?
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Feb 28 @ 6:14 PM ET
Look, we get it, you hate the trade.

The fact that you think you don't exercise confirmation bias just like everyone else is the funny part.

Edit: Yes. I quoted myself.

- Wetbandit1



Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Feb 28 @ 6:14 PM ET
In an extremely general fashion
- jdfitz77


idk i thought it was fairly specific
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Feb 28 @ 6:16 PM ET
Sure...
but WHY can’t we score 5v5?

Didn’t u say earlier that Armia has only 1 less goal than Kane at 5v5?

Is your hate on Kane so strong that u really believe their goal scoring abilities to be essentially equal?

Come on man

And there’s many many other examples that don’t make sense as well when u look at the raw 5v5 numbers

U call them “outliers”
But when there’s so many, it really just shows it’s a flawed stat

- jdfitz77

I don’t think they are that far off from each other, at all.

Armia’s shooting % has gotten better each three years he’s been in the league.

He’s not better than Kane, but really not a ton worse.

Kane plays a ton and shoots a ton, that’s why he scores. Really good goal scorers don’t shoot 9%
Wetbandit1
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Unpopular opinion (i think): The best Die Hard movie is the 4th one- Live free or Die Hard -jdfitz7, NY
Joined: 10.07.2010

Feb 28 @ 6:20 PM ET
You hating on yourself?
- jochfr


It was just an addendum to my original post. I didn't feel like going back and finding one of Broads posts.
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