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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Pachla: Sabres power past Edmonton. Is this the new reality?
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jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Jan 25 @ 6:07 PM ET
Could also be a sign that he can't get to the play in time.

Again, not saying it is that, but like everything, the truth is likely somewhere in the middle.

- Wetbandit1


Even though the PP has been brutal (until recently) this year,
and he’s been playing with mediocre linemates for a good part of the season...

He’s still on pace for the same amount of goals as his first 2 years with us

Assists are down to 31, from 35 & 39 his past 2 seasons
Again, I’d point to linemates & PP suckage


I do understand concern he could drop off at some point
But at only 26,
I just don’t see it coming soon

He’s got 6 years left with us, right?
That puts him at 33 when it expires
I’m good with that
I certainly wouldn’t sign him to a big$$$, long term deal after that though
GERBE!!!75PTS
San Jose Sharks
Location: Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser." - Jack Eichel-, CA
Joined: 02.11.2009

Jan 25 @ 6:08 PM ET
6-2 Sabres
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Jan 25 @ 6:09 PM ET
I don't bet on anyone staying healthy for 5 years, so I guess it was a trick question. I don't think anyone feels he's going to be the next Moulson/Leino, but that he's already not quite worth the $ and trending down. If he stays, he's probably going to be pushed off the first PP at some point and that will crush his points.
- Lunaion



Not for a few years, considering he's currently our 3rd best offensive forward, and will be our second best when Kane is traded.

If he keeps doing his 20g-55p thing, in 3 years, the contract will look good. Everyone is banking on him taking a sh*t. I don't see it
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Jan 25 @ 6:09 PM ET
This, this, this.
- sbroads24



I have an issue with judging his defensive impact on team oriented stats though
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Jan 25 @ 6:10 PM ET
Even though the PP has been brutal (until recently) this year,
and he’s been playing with mediocre linemates for a good part of the season...

He’s still on pace for the same amount of goals as his first 2 years with us

Assists are down to 31, from 35 & 39 his past 2 seasons
Again, I’d point to linemates & PP suckage


I do understand concern he could drop off at some point
But at only 26,
I just don’t see it coming soon

He’s got 6 years left with us, right?
That puts him at 33 when it expires
I’m good with that
I certainly wouldn’t sign him to a big$$$, long term deal after that though

- jdfitz77



5 more after this year
GERBE!!!75PTS
San Jose Sharks
Location: Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser." - Jack Eichel-, CA
Joined: 02.11.2009

Jan 25 @ 6:10 PM ET
Dont run your mouth at me you don't know me.

(Less than three pages)

- Der Kaiser


Eat a sprit
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Jan 25 @ 6:13 PM ET
Don’t all those stats go up as your team gets better though?

Those seem more team oriented (like Corsi) than player oriented

For example:
Winnipeg is better this year
Are Armia’s stats better than last year?
What about the other guys in defensive roles for them?

What do those type stats look like for guys like Bozak & Kadri for these past 2 years (when the Leafs were good) vs the couple years before (when the team was bad)?


Those were just some ones that first came to mind
I’m sure there’s many other examples u could check too

- jdfitz77



They normally would go up as the team gets better, but the fact that he hasnt really had an impact on it is the bigger issue.

When eichel is on the ice, the sabres are offensively competent. when he's not, they're not.

ROR's impact hasn't been the same. Whether he's on or off the ice, the sabres can't defend. It's not to say that he's bad defensively, he may well be above average. But he got 7.5 mil on the basis that he could be a shut down guy and chip in offensively. He hasn't really done much of either (the offence being an issue at 5v5)
GERBE!!!75PTS
San Jose Sharks
Location: Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser." - Jack Eichel-, CA
Joined: 02.11.2009

Jan 25 @ 6:13 PM ET
Grigorenko made the Russian Olympic Team

Good for him

Anyone know if the rosters are out for all the teams?


Has Mittelstadt officially been named to TeamUSA?

- jdfitz77



If they want gold hopefully
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Jan 25 @ 6:14 PM ET
I don't bet on anyone staying healthy for 5 years, so I guess it was a trick question. I don't think anyone feels he's going to be the next Moulson/Leino, but that he's already not quite worth the $ and trending down. If he stays, he's probably going to be pushed off the first PP at some point and that will crush his points.
- Lunaion



Also look at Eichel's PP overtime winner. It's directly caused by ROR's F/O win. He'll be on PP1 for a long while yet
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Jan 25 @ 6:14 PM ET
Also look at Eichel's PP overtime winner. It's directly caused by ROR's F/O win. He'll be on PP1 for a long while yet
- jcragcrumple



That circles us back to the question of whether it's wise to keep a 7.5 million dollar faceoff and PP specialist on the payroll?
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Jan 25 @ 6:16 PM ET
They normally would go up as the team gets better, but the fact that he hasnt really had an impact on it is the bigger issue.

When eichel is on the ice, the sabres are offensively competent. when he's not, they're not.

ROR's impact hasn't been the same. Whether he's on or off the ice, the sabres can't defend. It's not to say that he's bad defensively, he may well be above average. But he got 7.5 mil on the basis that he could be a shut down guy and chip in offensively. He hasn't really done much of either (the offence being an issue at 5v5)

- Sabresfan-365


It is as simple as this: O'Reilly is a supporting player to a team, and not a core player.

Unfortunately, supporting players frequently (often) get paid like core players, and it is not easy to avoid all of those players. The key is doing your best to avoid most of those players.
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Jan 25 @ 6:18 PM ET
That circles us back to the question of whether it's wise to keep a 7.5 million dollar faceoff and PP specialist on the payroll?
- Sabresfan-365



If he were scoring 40p a year, I would say no. But his points are good for a 2nd line center, and really, 7.5 isn't that much. 10 mil coming off with 29 and 26 next year, 9 mil with gorges/Kane this year. If you're gonna spend 7.5 mil, you can do a lot worse than ROR. It's worth it to spend on good players, which I think he is. YMMV
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Jan 25 @ 6:18 PM ET
Im still of the opinion that the "ROR conundrum" could be solved internally.

Move him to Jack's wing and try Reinhart between Benoit and Okposo.


I know the last Reinhart at centre experiment didn't work out but his line generated a lot of zone time and was on most nights our best puck possession line. They didn't produce, but a good amount of that can be blamed on the fact that he played with Girgensons and Griffith.

They're not going anywhere, it's worth a shot. It may not make ROR a 7.5 mil guy, but he produced his best on the wing some few years back in Colorado and it means you don't have to go out and spend assets to find a LW to replace Kanes truculence.
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Jan 25 @ 6:20 PM ET
If he were scoring 40p a year, I would say no. But his points are good for a 2nd line center, and really, 7.5 isn't that much. 10 mil coming off with 29 and 26 next year, 9 mil with gorges/Kane this year. If you're gonna spend 7.5 mil, you can do a lot worse than ROR. It's worth it to spend on good players, which I think he is. YMMV
- jcragcrumple


That's the rate he's scoring at 5v5, basically high end 3rd line level. You could do worse, but if you could do better, wouldn't you want to? Thats why I think it's worth exploring trade talks.
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

Jan 25 @ 6:21 PM ET
Not for a few years, considering he's currently our 3rd best offensive forward, and will be our second best when Kane is traded.

If he keeps doing his 20g-55p thing, in 3 years, the contract will look good. Everyone is banking on him taking a sh*t. I don't see it

- jcragcrumple


Or Mittlestadt pushes him next season. I've never seen him play down low, so there's plenty of good competition coming for that right slot.

I don't think 55 points is 7.5m good to begin with.
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Jan 25 @ 6:22 PM ET
That's the rate he's scoring at 5v5, basically high end 3rd line level. You could do worse, but if you could do better, wouldn't you want to? Thats why I think it's worth exploring trade talks.
- Sabresfan-365



I get what you're saying, but you're excluding his PP production from the equation.

Anyway, we're going in circles. I respect your opinion, I would personally wait to see if Mittelstadt can be a 2C before I entertain offers on ROR
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Jan 25 @ 6:28 PM ET
I get what you're saying, but you're excluding his PP production from the equation.

Anyway, we're going in circles. I respect your opinion, I would personally wait to see if Mittelstadt can be a 2C before I entertain offers on ROR

- jcragcrumple



i exclude it because it shouldn't be weighted equally. That power play when its clicking is Risto and Eichel. The others are just along for the ride. There were times where ROR was solely responsible for it's failures. The cross ice passes when he thought he was eichel...the rushes up ice when he thought he was eichel.
cabin
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We need a You're an Ass button, NY
Joined: 09.07.2006

Jan 25 @ 6:28 PM ET
That circles us back to the question of whether it's wise to keep a 7.5 million dollar faceoff and PP specialist on the payroll?
- Sabresfan-365

If he contributes in a way that we win games ?

Good money spent .
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Jan 25 @ 6:32 PM ET
If he contributes in a way that we win games ?

Good money spent .

- cabin


Well that'd be another point. How many wins above replacement is he actually getting us? I don't know if you've noticed but we don't win a lot
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Jan 25 @ 6:35 PM ET
5 more after this year
- jcragcrumple


So then he’s only 32 when his contract ends

I guess I’d listen to offers,
But I’m not worried he will drop off before then
Lunaion
Joined: 05.23.2016

Jan 25 @ 6:35 PM ET
I get what you're saying, but you're excluding his PP production from the equation.

Anyway, we're going in circles. I respect your opinion, I would personally wait to see if Mittelstadt can be a 2C before I entertain offers on ROR

- jcragcrumple


It's a very hard contract to move. If JB shares any of the concerns you've seen here, he might jump at a chance to move it.
cabin
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We need a You're an Ass button, NY
Joined: 09.07.2006

Jan 25 @ 6:38 PM ET
Well that'd be another point. How many wins above replacement is he actually getting us? I don't know if you've noticed but we don't win a lot
- Sabresfan-365

Haven't really paid much attention.
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Jan 25 @ 6:40 PM ET
It's a very hard contract to move. If JB shares any of the concerns you've seen here, he might jump at a chance to move it.
- Lunaion



I wouldn't worry about him. There's plenty of salary that will be shed in the next 48 months through contracts ending (over 20 mil in 4 players alone). If it all turns to crap with him - which I don't think it will - he'll be an expensive LW with good faceoff ability
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Jan 25 @ 6:42 PM ET
They normally would go up as the team gets better, but the fact that he hasnt really had an impact on it is the bigger issue.

When eichel is on the ice, the sabres are offensively competent. when he's not, they're not.

ROR's impact hasn't been the same. Whether he's on or off the ice, the sabres can't defend. It's not to say that he's bad defensively, he may well be above average. But he got 7.5 mil on the basis that he could be a shut down guy and chip in offensively. He hasn't really done much of either (the offence being an issue at 5v5)

- Sabresfan-365


No one is saying ROR is Eichel though

As our team gets better,
I have no doubt his number will as well

For example:
Haven’t u been on here saying that offense will improve as we get defensemen who can clear the zone & get the puck up ice?

And won’t that affect RORs offensive numbers (in a good way) even more than most bc of all the def zone starts he gets?


Again...
no one is saying ROR is Malkin, etc
But he’s a good player
And i think the judging of him based off of “team stats” isn’t that accurate
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Jan 25 @ 6:44 PM ET


If they want gold hopefully

- GERBE!!!75PTS


Bellows-Mittelstadt-Tkachuk
could be a really nice line for USA

Bellows is the sniper
Mittelstadt is great overall talent
Tkachuk is a b!tch to play against
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