Bingo! This is why I hate stats as the be-all, end-all. Enzo explained what he saw looking at the game, how 19 played. He gave anecdotal evidence, he pointed out the flaws in 19's game. Either Enzo is FOS and these things did not happen or he's right and Toews had many failings last night.

And then someone is going to argue, NOOO...he actually played good, check out my stats. In short, Toews stunk last night. Anyone promoting STATS to argue Toews in fact DID PLAY well last night places their own credibility in peril.

This does NOT MEAN we hate Tazer or think he's a loser. It just means we believe he can be better. My son returned to Ice Hockey last week after a 2 month wrist injury against a team he should have had all kinds of room against, yet he was pulling up, firing low percentage shots, avoiding the slot, etc...in short, HE SUCKED. I know it was his first game back from injury so I get it that he's gonna be slow to get going, but the fact his line was +4 means NOTHING to me...he didn't play well. But he's a good player and I love him still.
- kwolf68

It is very clear to me from your last two sentences (hope they come out bolded like I intended) that you get it. It is okay to be critical of the team or players even if you like them; liking them does not make them immune to criticism. No one should accept poopy play from these players; when they don’t perform they are open to criticism just like anyone else. And I am pretty sure you would agree with me that criticism — with appropriate corrective action when warranted — can be used to make something much better than it was before.

Yes. I didn't single out D-Cat in my Top 10. But, he has been good since the start of the season. Even the biggest doubters coming into the season have to be impressed by his first 20 games.
- hawk35

The kid is a hockey player. I see him throwing his little bulldog sized body around for puck battles, being reliable as the forward covering the point for a pinching d-man, and he simply makes plays with the puck on his stick. The kid is a sniper and has that uncanny ability to find open ice, and he puts the puck past the keeper more often than most.

Everyone can see the blazing speed, puck control and playmaking ability of Schmaltz and he is the closest thing the Hawks have to Panarin as far as Right Shot with high end offensive skill. Anismov doing what he did the last two years with 72+88 but now with 8+88...going to the dirty areas, establishing residency in the blue paint, and I think the new faceoff rules have helped him to increase his F/O %. That line should NOT be broken up anytime soon, but I still think that Debrincat should be playing with Saad-Toews as Panik has been slumping a bit.

Murphy played a steady game and seems to have shaken off some of the early season jitters the last week. He seems more poised and comfortable with the puck on his blade, as does Forsling. I really like the potential chemistry of Forsling-Rutta as two guys who can move the puck and contribute offensively, but have the active sticks and skating ability to matchup against the top lines of opponents. Forsling and Rutta have been key cogs on the VASTLY improved Penalty Kill this year. Another great Euro UFA signing by StanBo (which has been one of his biggest strengths as GM).

If Sharpie can start converting some of his opportunities, he can be a nice depth scorer on line 3. Hayden brings the effort, physicality, and net front presence every night and should not be scratched. I have been very disapointed in Hartman's play since game 2 of the season. This guy scored almost 20 goals as a rookie, but seems to be fighting the puck and lacking confidence right now. If Hartman and Sharp can get going on line 3, the Hawks forward depth looks a lot better.


Additions to this team are necessary to have a chance at getting out of the Central Division and qualifying for the postseason, but despite the massive choke job against NJ, I've been impressed by the improved team play (especially the offense) the last few games.

I didn't watch the whole game but we gave up way to many oddman rushes and
breakaways, team's are focusing on Seabs for sure in that regard. And this is happening after dump ins, TOs and just ordinary breakouts, this is a trend that has
to stop.

PK was pretty good but I think we got lucky in the first with some good sticks.

We are in need of a #rd line C, we have options in the Rock, Kampf,/Dauphin and my
Cuz. One of these in between Sharp/Cat might work with Hartman/Wingels/Hayden
being a pretty good 4th

Seabs wasn't so bad from what I gather cuz he didn't play much, Q must be reading
this thread. Forsling improving and becoming pretty good, playing might help, see
Kempny/Rutta/ Murphy.

Toews earlier in his was career was the best player in Hockey, sorry Sid the simple
truth is he was. Today he no longer is but he isn't terrible either, Everyone can have an off night, maybe he did, but then did the King/Shattenkirk/Keith and many of the Rag's.

Heck they had so many odd man rushes without getting a shot on net
- gazza53

Toews has never been the best player on the Hawks, let alone the league. Sorry

Im thinking:

Schmaltz = much more less aggressive Jeremy Roenick
Vinnie = 1960's Lou Angotti
- Hawkytalk

I can see the comparison,
Anybody remember Angotti being checked through the glass next to the visitors bench by iirc Brad Gasoff of the Blues? He wound up in the third row. Funny as hell until we realized a couple of women in the first row had bits of the tempered glass inbedded in their faces. Took the funny out of it immediately.

I think we can agree that stats are a tool to use for team management and coaches but not their only determinant. (That is unless you recently worked for the Arizona Coyotes or Florida Panthers and look where that got them).

If someone goes to the racetrack on a regular basis they don't make all of their betting decisions based solely on past performance charts and workout speeds listed in the Daily Racing Form. - They take a look at the horse in the paddock, consider his post position, who the rider is, condition of the track etc.

In hockey, good coaches look for matchups that favour their players in specific circumstances. I don't think Q needs to look at any stats to know having Franson on the ice vs McDavid is a very bad idea or that the opposing coach is trying to expose his team's weaknesses. But what can he do if his best players aren't performing at their best, possibly due to factors we don't know anything about.

If Toews was a thoroughbred horse, maybe he has a quarter crack or bucked shin problems and a bad wager this race. But since he isn't, we don't really know. However I do agree that he ain't running at his best.
- RickJ

I had a friend who thought it was important to watch the horses as they paraded from the paddock to the track and through the tunnel. He watched for and then bet on the horse that took a number 2 in the theory that he was running lighter than the other horses.

Sure remember that guy. I was happy when we got him because he could stick handle and fly but he never could put everything together.

However, whenever I see that name, one vision (nightmare) comes to mind. I don't remember the team or the year. I just remember Lou dangling with the puck along the blueline (last man back), coughing up the puck, and the opponent scoring a game changing goal on us.

And, yes, Vinnie is an excellent comparison.
- 67hawks

Two nights ago I was going through some storage boxes that hadn’t been open in two decades or so. Found an old piece of paper my uncle came over to our house with one night many, years ago that had Bobby hull’s and Pat Stapleton’s signature. My uncle was doing some carpentry at the old stadium and met the players while he was there one day.

The kid is a hockey player. I see him throwing his little bulldog sized body around for puck battles, being reliable as the forward covering the point for a pinching d-man, and he simply makes plays with the puck on his stick. The kid is a sniper and has that uncanny ability to find open ice, and he puts the puck past the keeper more often than most.

Everyone can see the blazing speed, puck control and playmaking ability of Schmaltz and he is the closest thing the Hawks have to Panarin as far as Right Shot with high end offensive skill. Anismov doing what he did the last two years with 72+88 but now with 8+88...going to the dirty areas, establishing residency in the blue paint, and I think the new faceoff rules have helped him to increase his F/O %. That line should NOT be broken up anytime soon, but I still think that Debrincat should be playing with Saad-Toews as Panik has been slumping a bit.

Murphy played a steady game and seems to have shaken off some of the early season jitters the last week. He seems more poised and comfortable with the puck on his blade, as does Forsling. I really like the potential chemistry of Forsling-Rutta as two guys who can move the puck and contribute offensively, but have the active sticks and skating ability to matchup against the top lines of opponents. Forsling and Rutta have been key cogs on the VASTLY improved Penalty Kill this year. Another great Euro UFA signing by StanBo (which has been one of his biggest strengths as GM).

If Sharpie can start converting some of his opportunities, he can be a nice depth scorer on line 3. Hayden brings the effort, physicality, and net front presence every night and should not be scratched. I have been very disapointed in Hartman's play since game 2 of the season. This guy scored almost 20 goals as a rookie, but seems to be fighting the puck and lacking confidence right now. If Hartman and Sharp can get going on line 3, the Hawks forward depth looks a lot better.


Additions to this team are necessary to have a chance at getting out of the Central Division and qualifying for the postseason, but despite the massive choke job against NJ, I've been impressed by the improved team play (especially the offense) the last few games.
- EnzoD

I personally wouldn’t characterize it as a “choke job” as much as it looked like they simply reverted at the start of the second period to they way they had been playing recently - not gonna no to the net, sloppy back checking and lack of effort.

Results were excellent yesterday when they started going to the net and get shots from close in.

I know it’s tome to tune the team out when they make the goalie look like a bullpen catcher warming up a reliever. Just can’t understand when they start taking gm the long shots that the goalie can see the entire way......that effort is going nowhere!

THE CAT!!!

Always been a big fan of JJ, but love the info u give out justin!! Keep up good work.
- MIKEMANENG

Agreed 100%.

http://www.tsn.ca/young-l...under-24-ranking-1.917336

TSN did a recent story on the top 4 under-24 players for each team which they call the Core Four. The Hawks were ranked 27th with Schmaltz, DeBrincat, Hartman, and Sikura as the top 4.

I personally would replace Hartman with Forsling (who is 21). Although Hartman can play a valuable role if he can find consistency and build off of his strong first full season last year, but Forsling has more upside. Hayden gets an honorable mention as well at age 22.

A couple of observations.

1) Debrincat can play. Kid sees and understands the game well. Might be the 2nd best passer on the team after Kane. Each game he is gaining confidence and making less mistakes. Several times last night, including the goal, he made the simple correct play, and it paid off. He could have just dumped the puck he scored on. the rest of the team was changing. No harm in throwing it on net. Smile on his face showed that even he didn't expect it to go in.

2) Defensive gap control was better last night. Lots of broken up plays at both blue lines.

3) When they play the simpler game with no extra passes or fancy play attempts they are much more successful. Get it in, get it on net, crash the net. Nothing wrong with the cycle play, but at some point you need to throw something at the net. Much better at that the last few games.

4) If Schmaltz can stay healthy he can be a game changer. Much quicker than given credit for, and can play the game at a high speed. Made some nice plays on the back-check and taking pucks away.

5) Anisimov has nice hands down low and in traffic. He flashes them with some subtle nice plays around the net.

6) Keith needs to think less and just react. When he doubles back, or tries to walk the blue line, or attempts to make fancy little saucer passes is when he f's up. When he is playing at speed and making the simple, correct, play he is still very good. Someone also needs to tell him its OK to throw a quick wrist or snap shot at the net instead of always having to take the slapper (which he fails to get off or thru)

7) Hawks biggest issue in playing with the big lead is that not only do they seem to take the foot off the gas, by doing so they get caught flat-footed. Last night, once they grabbed a 4-1 lead they stopped pressing the play, sent less forcheckers and let the Rangers come at them. Problem is, too many of the Forwards and D-men were standing still/flat footed, allowing the Rangers to beat them around the edges and create chances at the net. Get the lead and keep your skate on their throat.

8) Crawford has been great. The Nash goal was probably one her would like back, but to the same extent, Nash missed at least 3 or 4 other prime chances wide or high because Crows angles were spot on.

9) Love the way that Hayden plays. Kid is always hustling and making stuff happen. Would like to see him get 12mins or so a night. Im sure the 4 min penalty took away some of his ice time as did the 5 PP's

10) Hartman has not been great, but he needs to stay in the lineup. Would rather see Kero at center over Wingels, or better yet see Kero playing instead of Bouma.

I can see the comparison,
Anybody remember Angotti being checked through the glass next to the visitors bench by iirc Brad Gasoff of the Blues? He wound up in the third row. Funny as hell until we realized a couple of women in the first row had bits of the tempered glass inbedded in their faces. Took the funny out of it immediately.
- 6628

Prior to the goal being easily knocked off the moorings, I remember Lou sliding on his belly along the ice head first into the goalpost and getting knocked out.

3) When they play the simpler game with no extra passes or fancy play attempts they are much more successful. Get it in, get it on net, crash the net. Nothing wrong with the cycle play, but at some point you need to throw something at the net. Much better at that the last few games.

6) Keith needs to think less and just react. When he doubles back, or tries to walk the blue line, or attempts to make fancy little saucer passes is when he f's up. When he is playing at speed and making the simple, correct, play he is still very good. Someone also needs to tell him its OK to throw a quick wrist or snap shot at the net instead of always having to take the slapper (which he fails to get off or thru)

- TheTrob

Agree with both of these observations. Another poster said something similar earlier in the thread (or maybe the last thread). One critical problem is the team over thinking things and slowing the play down way too much. When they do that it allows the other team to make changes, set up, and read the play which makes the Hawks easy to defend.

Then when you add in the predictability of how the Hawks play offense and defense, then that's a recipe for lots of turnovers especially in dangerous areas.

The unnecessary drop pass by Franson that Hayes easily picked off is a good example. Other teams know the Hawks do the drop pass and particularly to certain players like Kane and Keith. Even the drop pass slows the game down just enough for the opponent to stifle the rush attempt. Just please, stop doing the drop pass. It fools no one.

Late to the party - however from an untrained eye my 10 are:

1. Great Job Justin!
2. Can we do away with Porn Stashes for Movember - I am sure we can represent in better ways??
3. The D is growing on me. They may be a year or so away from turning the corner - however on the right track
4. If 19 is playing with an injury - sit him until healed. There are too many years at 10.5 to make it worse. Don't need or want Dustin Brown II
5. Same goes for Seabs - and send him to skating camp, look how it helped 8
6. Hard question coming up - Plan A: trade some of the minimal assets for a rental only to get bounced in round 1 or 2 - OR Plan B: stand pat, miss the playoffs and build for next year? I vote B
7. Give Cro a few more games rest this year. He is destine for a Seabs collapse if his workload exceeds 60 games
8. The collar on the new uni's suck
9. Big John Stud Hayden is becoming a favorite. The guy has a second set... coach this kid up to the point he EARNS a bigger role.
10. Whats with Pierre complementing King Hank for NOT throwing a hissey fit when he was pulled chalking it up to AV.

Late to the party - however from an untrained eye my 10 are:

1. Great Job Justin!
2. Can we do away with Porn Stashes for Movember - I am sure we can represent in better ways??
3. The D is growing on me. They may be a year or so away from turning the corner - however on the right track
4. If 19 is playing with an injury - sit him until healed. There are too many years at 10.5 to make it worse. Don't need or want Dustin Brown II
5. Same goes for Seabs - and send him to skating camp, look how it helped 8
6. Hard question coming up - Plan A: trade some of the minimal assets for a rental only to get bounced in round 1 or 2 - OR Plan B: stand pat, miss the playoffs and build for next year? I vote B
7. Give Cro a few more games rest this year. He is destine for a Seabs collapse if his workload exceeds 60 games
8. The collar on the new uni's suck
9. Big John Stud Hayden is becoming a favorite. The guy has a second set... coach this kid up to the point he EARNS a bigger role.
10. Whats with Pierre complementing King Hank for NOT throwing a hissey fit when he was pulled chalking it up to AV.
- riozzo

Couple of things about your Toews stats:

First, you should not look at all situations stats in general, but especially at per 60, because special teams are much more variable and the sample is small enough that it skews all stats disproportionately (more time impacts this negatively, for ex). For a better look at how a player is performing on an individual level, looking at 5v5 is how it should go because it's provides the most reliable sample and that's where a majority of the game is played.

Second, if you look at 5v5 play, Toews HDCF/60 is actually up from last year (3.31 v 2.72), though both those numbers are pretty in line with his HDCF/60 over recent years. Most of Toews 5v5 numbers have improved over the last two years (below are Toews per 60 shot metric numbers this year and over the last 3 seasons). These numbers could come down to closer to the previous years as the season progresses but there's nothing in Toews 5v5 shot metric numbers to suggest he's not playing well.



Edit to add: ftr, I don't think Toews had a good game last night but I still don't get people ragging on his play for the season.
- L_B_R

Ehhhhhhhhhh. Eye test bad.

Shooting percentage bad. Actual points per 60 not good. On pace for 12ish even strength goals, woof. Shots against per 60 is a biiiiiig number. Shot share as a percentage is under 50. CF over 60 isn't abhorrent but FF for over 60 is about as bad as its been the last 3 years.

Either way, while his stats aren't terrible - his play + his stat line show an OK or good player rather than a dominating one. You pay a dude like him to clown the other team and make them look stupid. He's not doing that on paper or on television and that is a problem. Because the dollars are allocated. And because they don't have anyone other than AA who can reliably play up the middle.

And individual stats are fine except there are 4 other dudes on the ice and you'd think a player of that calibre would be boosting guys up. Cheque out some of the numbers away from Saad. Woof.

Ehhhhhhhhhh. Eye test bad.

Shooting percentage bad. Actual points per 60 not good. On pace for 12ish even strength goals, woof. Shots against per 60 is a biiiiiig number. Shot share as a percentage is under 50. CF over 60 isn't abhorrent but FF for over 60 is about as bad as its been the last 3 years.

Either way, while his stats aren't terrible - his play + his stat line show an OK or good player rather than a dominating one. You pay a dude like him to clown the other team and make them look stupid. He's not doing that on paper or on television and that is a problem. Because the dollars are allocated. And because they don't have anyone other than AA who can reliably play up the middle.
- fattybeef

You can cherry pick advanced stats to paint whatever narrative you desire. If you have never played the game then I guess that's a way for some people to feel like "experts" bc you can find some obscure possession stat to support nearly any hypothesis.

I've played AAA/AA hockey my entire youth in Chicago, have been an IHOA referee since age 12 and I coach the young kids now. I watch Toews and every high salary Hawk player very closely and regardless of your Corsi BS, Toews is NOT an elite player right now. Slow feet/legs and unable to create separation from defenders with speed or dangles with the puck. Falling all over the ice losing puck battles to 5'7" 170 pounders, and last night he was chasing the play in the defensive zone and pretty much coasting. He has two of the fastest skaters in the NHL in 14 and 20 on his wings and that line has been producing crap lately. Jonathan Toews is the 2nd highest paid player in the league, but looks like he should be the 200th.
- EnzoD

The Corsi numbers aren't BS. They show a pretty good player. Just not an excellent one. I'd expect this level from a Kyle Turris or RNH. Solid secondary players but not necessarily THE guy. I feel like his advanced stats and the eye test both show about the same thing. And neither is blowing anyone's skirt up.

Who is playing to their salary on the Hawks right now? Crawford and some of the young guys. AA....and that is about it.

They test is one thing, but it is also subjective. Guys lose battles, bobble pucks, fall down, and that is part of the game. Good games, bad games, but you can't measure a lot of those things. You might see Toews lose a puck battle to a smaller player, but it happened in his "glory days" too. The stats help tie it all together because unless you are going back and re-watching random regular season games, good luck making a fair comparison.

Even this season, during the first 8-10 games, that Toews-Saad-Panik line was playing great. Better than the other lines, but that gets forgotten.
- breadbag

Kane has had a lot of jump the last few games. With AA and Schmaltz having their way with the other teams he's going to get some space and do some damage soon.

You can cherry pick advanced stats to paint whatever narrative you desire. If you have never played the game then I guess that's a way for some people to feel like "experts" bc you can find some obscure possession stat to support nearly any hypothesis.

I've played AAA/AA hockey my entire youth in Chicago, have been an IHOA referee since age 12 and I coach the young kids now. I watch Toews and every high salary Hawk player very closely and regardless of your Corsi BS, Toews is NOT an elite player right now. Slow feet/legs and unable to create separation from defenders with speed or dangles with the puck. Falling all over the ice losing puck battles to 5'7" 170 pounders, and last night he was chasing the play in the defensive zone and pretty much coasting. He has two of the fastest skaters in the NHL in 14 and 20 on his wings and that line has been producing crap lately. Jonathan Toews is the 2nd highest paid player in the league, but looks like he should be the 200th.
- EnzoD

Completely condescending....AAA in your youth???? Ooooooooo, impressive, your parents had money. AA? I head coached a AA team to NIHL championship....big deal..doesn't qualify me to talk down to others cause they haven't coached or played....before you ask, yes, I played too.
IHOA ref....explains the condescending attitude
All your glorious background qualifies you for......???? Stock boy at the local Jewels

Prior to the goal being easily knocked off the moorings, I remember Lou sliding on his belly along the ice head first into the goalpost and getting knocked out.
- HawkintheD

Louie had a bar in Pompano Beach after he retired called Pickles Pub. I stumbled out of there a few times like I hit my head on the post.

THE CAT!!!
- EnzoD

Where is JJ? I thought he was going to stop in and blog a bit. I really want to here his take on D-Cat. He bashed the kid since he was drafted. He had nothing but praise for Fortin who finally scored a goal the other day. He said the NHL is for big boys and D-Cats stats are against kids, he said remember Kyle Beach? Well JJ, Kyle Beach had one good season and D-Cat had an excellent three years in junior and his stats grew every year even without the great McDavid.

D-Cat won't be affective in the NHL because his defensive game won't cut it in the NHL against big strong men. I have been a D-Cat fan since he started in the OHL. I know it is hard to say junior success will translate into success at the NHL level, but when you dominate a game at the junior level every year and the play of the game is always around certain players, those players make it to the show. D-Cat has been a winner since he was an undrafted walk on for the Erie Otters.

End of rant

Completely condescending....AAA in your youth???? Ooooooooo, impressive, your parents had money. AA? I head coached a AA team to NIHL championship....big deal..doesn't qualify me to talk down to others cause they haven't coached or played....before you ask, yes, I played too.
IHOA ref....explains the condescending attitude
All your glorious background qualifies you for......???? Stock boy at the local Jewels
- dpard

LOL your posts are always a treat. If you had better reading ability, you would have seen my follow-up comment addressing your "condescension" concerns and the overall point of the comment being that the eye test is, IMO, a better way to assess a hockey player. I actually sell Solar Energy in Denver, CO. Come out here and say hello, big guy. I'll PM you my address. BTW, for someone so concerned with "condescending" posts, you sure as hell love to throw out nonsensical personal attacks towards other contributors on the blog.

Where is JJ? I thought he was going to stop in and blog a bit. I really want to here his take on D-Cat. He bashed the kid since he was drafted. He had nothing but praise for Fortin who finally scored a goal the other day. He said the NHL is for big boys and D-Cats stats are against kids, he said remember Kyle Beach? Well JJ, Kyle Beach had one good season and D-Cat had an excellent three years in junior and his stats grew every year even without the great McDavid.

D-Cat won't be affective in the NHL because his defensive game won't cut it in the NHL against big strong men. I have been a D-Cat fan since he started in the OHL. I know it is hard to say junior success will translate into success at the NHL level, but when you dominate a game at the junior level every year and the play of the game is always around certain players, those players make it to the show. D-Cat has been a winner since he was an undrafted walk on for the Erie Otters.

End of rant
- scott.jackson

Don't you realize that if DeBrincat is not effective, then this kid has the wherewithal to figure out what he can do to be a contributing factor. It is a process that may evolve any number of ways. His health largely depends if he is willing to pick his battles and I don't know if it is sooner than later - or the reverse - when he might study how M St Louis lasted as long as he did. The linmates for him also may help him remain moving among the cows, so to speak.5

Can we please allow Sharpie to relax and take in the remainder of the season from the press box? ‘Cause he’s not contributing anything down there on the ice. Perhaps he can be replaced by a faster, younger, hungrier Ice Hog?