Possibly...they didn't. Kane hit the pipe earlier in the game. That doesn't count either but still would have had the Hawks up by 1.

I also thought that third goal was a bit on the softish side given up by Crow.
- HawkintheD

Crow's goal was terrible. But he has made so few of those it really doesn't matter, the dude can't be perfect. Though his last two games have not been sparkling. I hope he brings it Saturday night.

Couple of things about your Toews stats:

First, you should not look at all situations stats in general, but especially at per 60, because special teams are much more variable and the sample is small enough that it skews all stats disproportionately (more time impacts this negatively, for ex). For a better look at how a player is performing on an individual level, looking at 5v5 is how it should go because it's provides the most reliable sample and that's where a majority of the game is played.

Second, if you look at 5v5 play, Toews HDCF/60 is actually up from last year (3.31 v 2.72), though both those numbers are pretty in line with his HDCF/60 over recent years. Most of Toews 5v5 numbers have improved over the last two years (below are Toews per 60 shot metric numbers this year and over the last 3 seasons). These numbers could come down to closer to the previous years as the season progresses but there's nothing in Toews 5v5 shot metric numbers to suggest he's not playing well.



Edit to add: ftr, I don't think Toews had a good game last night but I still don't get people ragging on his play for the season.

Couple of things about your Toews stats:

First, you should not look at all situations stats in general, but especially at per 60, because special teams are much more variable and the sample is small enough that it skews all stats disproportionately (more time impacts this negatively, for ex). For a better look at how a player is performing on an individual level, looking at 5v5 is how it should go because it's provides the most reliable sample and that's where a majority of the game is played.

Second, if you look at 5v5 play, Toews HDCF/60 is actually up from last year (3.31 v 2.72), though both those numbers are pretty in line with his HDCF/60 over recent years. Most of Toews 5v5 numbers have improved over the last two years (below are Toews per 60 shot metric numbers this year and over the last 3 seasons). These numbers could come down to closer to the previous years as the season progresses but there's nothing in Toews 5v5 shot metric numbers to suggest he's not playing well.


- L_B_R

Cue the guys coming in to tell you that you're using "garbage" stats.

Still got back and made the play. His game was outstanding last night. He must have broken up half a dozen zone entries. His gap control is excellent and his instincts in reading the attack are impressive. He had a TO, who the hell doesn't? Instead of falling down, or not hustling back, he kept working. 21 year old D-men aren't infallible.
- kwolf68

Not disagreeing kwolf, just pointing it out. Kinda like an outfielder that mis-judges a ball and makes a diving catch on a routine fly. Forsling had one of his better games of the year last night, as long as he keeps getting better thats all you can ask for.

Cue the guys coming in to tell you that you're using "garbage" stats.
- JRoenick97

Haha.

Don't make me start the analytics vs. 'gut feeling' discussion...

There's a place for both (balanced), but I think sports relies a little too much on the numbers these days.

Hey Justin, nice write up and have been enjoying your work since coming on board.

10 thoughts is a lot...how about let's say I agree with most of yours but have a few questions.

Toews didn't look great last night but I think he's been off to a bit better start than the last few seasons. The numbers you posted, are the previous year's representative of a full season or just the first quarter which is about where we're at now?

Also, on center depth, is there a possible bottom 6 solution from within? Dolphin?

On AA...could be wrong but I think I saw the injury from last season was a high ankle sprain which can take pretty long to heal. Any chance that was still bothering him to start the season?
- HawkintheD

Agreed. Justin has been doing some great work!

I wouldn't mind seeing Dauphin or Vinnie get a chance. Not that I expect them to be the magic bullet, but it could give Q some options.

Agreed. Justin has been doing some great work!

I wouldn't mind seeing Dauphin or Vinnie get a chance. Not that I expect them to be the magic bullet, but it could give Q some options.
- DarthKane

Vinnie with the wheels. He can put defenses on their heels a bit and he has good vision.

he reminds me of a less aggressive JR.

I think potentially Forsling is better than Hammer. He is already better in the offensive zone. Hammer was one dimensional. It was a good dimension, but he can't skate, pass or shoot the puck like Gus. Yes, in the D-zone, Hammer is much better, but Forsling is showing great strides there. Hammer never got the offensive side of the game down (though the Hawks honestly didn't need that from him).

Toews was awful last night. I love the guy and I know the apologists will be coming hard and fast with garbage stats like QOC bla bla. But the eye test is clear, he played a poor game last night. Certainly not like a first line center who EXPECTS to play high QOC. The fact is the guy has been very inconsistent at best for going on 3 years now. Concerns about him are LEGIT.

Trying to figure out why people here are female doging about the refs. Did the Hawks even get called for a penalty in the last two periods?
- kwolf68

Forsling has been impressive and I like that his game continues to grow each night. I know we all want these guys to step up and replace the likes of Oduya and Hjalmarsson instantly, but they need time to develop. Forsling appears to be well on his way to solidifying himself at a legit top 4 d-man (thanks Vancouver!).

Another guy that's been steadily improving is Murphy. Q can keep giving him 3rd pairing minutes but he needs to keep playing.

I think the top 5 D are Keith, Seabrook, Forsling, Murphy and Rutta. Kempny and Franson can rotate for the 6D spot.

Seabrooks decline in ice time is pretty representative of him being taken off the PP. He loses a good 2-4 minutes a nihgt right there. He's still logging good PK time and his stats are better being used less.

So now Toews is the most popular guy to rag doll and he has been far from great for sure but to say everything is weak and bad is ridiculous. Sit him out and put Hinostroza or Kero in his place and then you will see what your missing.

And how about that play last night when he and Saad were breaking over Ranger blue line 2 on 1 and #20 inexplicably dumped the puck to Toews as they crossed the line totally ruining the chance. What was he supposed to do with that, get himself an assist or score a goal?

No doubt he can play better but he's not the only one - you and I can name quite a few more who haven't been too terrific either.
- RickJ

Threw him a (frank)ing grenade

Haha.

Don't make me start the analytics vs. 'gut feeling' discussion...

There's a place for both (balanced), but I think sports relies a little too much on the numbers these days.
- Hank3Henshaw

Her example works though because his HD shots were being called out, but incorrectly. The difference is in special teams play, and the whole team is struggling there. 5v5 he's actually doing better.

Threw him a (frank)ing grenade
- 6628

Said this on page one, but wanted to say again...

Hawks are notorious for terrible passing decisions and trying to be cute and force it all the time.

However...

Eddie had an interesting point about plays like this when Franson had the turnover on the PP early in the game. He said that guys need to just trust themselves and make the play. Sometimes they see 19 or 88 and feel they HAVE to get the puck to them, rather than make the play/do the work on their own.

Thought that was an interesting angle.

Great blog Justin! And I agree on all 10 points. With regards to Toews, I have always been a huge fan and supporter of Toews but his play during this slump has been awful. Like you, I am most alarmed with his defensive play as of late. Offense is often a question of confidence and I know from my own experience, when I lack confidence in my offensesive play, I try and crank up my defensive play to help my teammates. He does not appear to be doing that anymore which is alarming. I suspect one of four things:
1) He has lost that hunger to be the leader and best all around player he was in the past in which case we can only hope he gets it back
2) He can't handle the total lack of team defensive structure the team is currently going through with breakdowns everywhere (like three Hawks going after one guy with the puck leaving huge gaps in overall defensive zone coverage) resulting in him losing focus on what he needs to be doing
3) just total lack of confidence in his overall game, or
4) all of the above.
Perhaps Seab's can give Toews a good talking to like he did in game 5 of the playoffs against the Dead Wings in the 2013 playoffs. And then maybe Toews will reciprocate with Seabs.

Seabrooks decline in ice time is pretty representative of him being taken off the PP. He loses a good 2-4 minutes a nihgt right there. He's still logging good PK time and his stats are better being used less.
- JRoenick97

If playing 16 minutes a night makes Seabrook a more effective defenseman then I'm all for it.

Is Toews still taking that Onnit crap?

He looks weak on the puck and either avoids puck battles at all costs or loses them easily.

if he is protecting a bad back, how bad is it? Should he be shut down to have surgery?

If playing 16 minutes a night makes Seabrook a more effective defenseman then I'm all for it.
- DarthKane

Absolutely. He had a great game last night.

Won't get to 10, but here are a couple:

(1) Very lucky to get both whistle calls last night: they easily could have gone against the Hawks.

(2) In the last 10 games, only AA (5), ADB (4), Kane (3), and Hayden (2) have crooked figure number of non-empty-net goals. Top-6 players are mostly missing from that list - no Toews, Panik, Saad, Schmaltz. 10 players have 1 each.

(3) Last 3 games - 14 goals with an opposing goalie in net - AdB (4), AA (4), Forsling, Saad, Rutta, Kane, Hayden, Kero with 1 each. Again, not much top-6 representation there (no Toews, Panik, Schmaltz)

(4) 8 Hawks (including Saad, in CBJ, and Hartman, I'll include at 19) scored 20+ goals last year. Two are gone (Hossa and Panarin), and only 6 Hawks are on pace for 20 this year (Anisimov, AdB, Saad, Kane, Panik (barely), Toews (barely).

(5) But - seeing how much better the net front presence has been the last 3 games - perhaps things change going forward.

(6) Actually, pretty good depth scoring the last 10 games - time to get the skaters who should be scoring goals to actually score goals - the likes of Toews, Panik, Saad, Schmaltz (just shoot some more) - add in Keith and Seabrook from the blue line.

Said this on page one, but wanted to say again...

Hawks are notorious for terrible passing decisions and trying to be cute and force it all the time.

However...

Eddie had an interesting point about plays like this when Franson had the turnover on the PP early in the game. He said that guys need to just trust themselves and make the play. Sometimes they see 19 or 88 and feel they HAVE to get the puck to them, rather than make the play/do the work on their own.

Thought that was an interesting angle.
- Hank3Henshaw

Good point by Eddie. Franson has probably been victimized by 19 & 88 a bunch of times playing for other teams so he defers to them automatically. You see that all the time coaching kids. You also see kids learning to shoot being real impressed with themselves when they start to master the slapshot. At some point they realize that getting it through is more important than taking a full windup. Duncan Keith has yet to realize this, but Franson does. So do Forsling and Seabrook. DK has no business on the PP.

Couple of things about your Toews stats:

First, you should not look at all situations stats in general, but especially at per 60, because special teams are much more variable and the sample is small enough that it skews all stats disproportionately (more time impacts this negatively, for ex). For a better look at how a player is performing on an individual level, looking at 5v5 is how it should go because it's provides the most reliable sample and that's where a majority of the game is played.

Second, if you look at 5v5 play, Toews HDCF/60 is actually up from last year (3.31 v 2.72), though both those numbers are pretty in line with his HDCF/60 over recent years. Most of Toews 5v5 numbers have improved over the last two years (below are Toews per 60 shot metric numbers this year and over the last 3 seasons). These numbers could come down to closer to the previous years as the season progresses but there's nothing in Toews 5v5 shot metric numbers to suggest he's not playing well.



Edit to add: ftr, I don't think Toews had a good game last night but I still don't get people ragging on his play for the season.
- L_B_R

I won't say they are "garbage stats", as JRoenixk97 says down the line, but there is one glaring stat: in the last 10 games, he has only 1 goal with an opposing goalie in the net.

At some point, top six players have to score goals.

I think they should start taking Toews off of either the PP or PK. Maybe that will help him

The Hawks scored more goals than the other guys!!!


- DarthKane

Is this the scene right after Rick ' s wife was shot by his son

I think they should start taking Toews off of either the PP or PK. Maybe that will help him
- PatShart

I think a little "wake up" call would be a good thing. Take him off PP/PK, maybe drop him down to the second line or something.

I think he should be held to the same standards as the other players who are penalized for poor/underperforming play.

Vinnie with the wheels. He can put defenses on their heels a bit and he has good vision.

he reminds me of a less aggressive JR.
- Hank3Henshaw

Im thinking:

Schmaltz = much more less aggressive Jeremy Roenick
Vinnie = 1960's Lou Angotti

Won't get to 10, but here are a couple:

(1) Very lucky to get both whistle calls last night: they easily could have gone against the Hawks.

(2) In the last 10 games, only AA (5), ADB (4), Kane (3), and Hayden (2) have crooked figure number of non-empty-net goals. Top-6 players are mostly missing from that list - no Toews, Panik, Saad, Schmaltz. 10 players have 1 each.

(3) Last 3 games - 14 goals with an opposing goalie in net - AdB (4), AA (4), Forsling, Saad, Rutta, Kane, Hayden, Kero with 1 each. Again, not much top-6 representation there (no Toews, Panik, Schmaltz)

(4) 8 Hawks (including Saad, in CBJ, and Hartman, I'll include at 19) scored 20+ goals last year. Two are gone (Hossa and Panarin), and only 6 Hawks are on pace for 20 this year (Anisimov, AdB, Saad, Kane, Panik (barely), Toews (barely).

(5) But - seeing how much better the net front presence has been the last 3 games - perhaps things change going forward.

(6) Actually, pretty good depth scoring the last 10 games - time to get the skaters who should be scoring goals to actually score goals - the likes of Toews, Panik, Saad, Schmaltz (just shoot some more) - add in Keith and Seabrook from the blue line.
- StLBravesFan

Toews and Saad are poised to breakout if they continue their general play from the last 10 or so games. Panik too but not to the same degree. In 145 minutes so far this season, Saad-Toews-Panik are at about 55% CF and 52% SCF, so they're really good over all statistically as a line. Schmaltz needs to shoot more if he wants his goals to pick up, but I'm okay with his setting up Anisimov ad Kane a lot as well. That line has only played 31 minutes so the sample is way too low to really suggest anything about their continued play but they're at 59% CF and 64% SCF - that'll come down, but it's a good start.

This is around the time the Hawks picked it up in 2014-15 after a similar lackluster start - went on an 8 game winning streak, the second longest not included the lockout season obvs. I don't know if this current team can string together some wins here (doesn't need to be 8 in a row either, though that would be nice) but those saying the season is over need to just calm down and let the games play out.

I will say - Toews does need to stop taking so many penalties.

I won't say they are "garbage stats", as JRoenixk97 says down the line, but there is one glaring stat: in the last 10 games, he has only 1 goal with an opposing goalie in the net.

At some point, top six players have to score goals.
- StLBravesFan

Yeah, goals and wins are the ultimate numbers, but we're talking about the stats that are indicative of performance (at least we are if the blog is going to quote them in a flawed manner). Last year anyone looking at the progression of shot metrics over the season knew Toews was likely to break out and then he did. Same with Hossa between 2015-16 to 2016-17. Cause hey, shots metrics typically are good as predicting things, who knew? It's not like a crystal ball or some poop but they're pretty good for that kind of thing.

If shots lead to goals, then more shots and higher quality ones give them more of a chance. Not you STL, but I feel like sometimes people have such a bad reaction to "stats" that they forget that it's really as simple as that.