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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Wrap: Fast Start, Top Line, Big PK & Elliott Key 3-1 Win vs. Chicago
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rinaldo
Joined: 05.10.2011

Nov 10 @ 10:10 AM ET
I don't know. If Manning can continue to play at the level he has been playing, even with the ups and downs, I see no reason not to keep him as a depth defenseman. never know how long before his play drops off. Sometimes players like that have a brief career of being able to play at the NHL level, but right now, no reason to move a player like Manning. As long as he is cost controlled.
- MJL

what kind of deal do you think he gets in free agency? 2 years 3 mill total? more?
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Nov 10 @ 10:15 AM ET
Odds are against every Flyers defense prospect panning out and I don't see the Flyers wanting to keep a youngster in a 7th defenseman slot for long. if the former happens, good solid young defenseman make excellent trade chips.
- MJL

I have heard this multiple times.. Why are the odds against the Flyers d-men panning out.

By my count, right now we have 4 up. They all look great so far. We still have Morin on the cusp.. odds are with him.

Myers playing down in LHV has had a heck of a start to his pro career. Odds are not against him.

Theres 6 right there.

Then there are a handful of other guys still developing. If statistics are what we are going by... at least one of those guys will make it to the NHL.

So why do people keep on insisting that the odds are against us?
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Nov 10 @ 10:17 AM ET
I have heard this multiple times.. Why are the odds against the Flyers d-men panning out.

By my count, right now we have 4 up. They all look great so far. We still have Morin on the cusp.. odds are with him.

Myers playing down in LHV has had a heck of a start to his pro career. Odds are not against him.

Theres 6 right there.

Then there are a handful of other guys still developing. If statistics are what we are going by... at least one of those guys will make it to the NHL.

So why do people keep on insisting that the odds are against us?

- jak521



EDIT: I rescind this post. Missed the "EVERY" part of the previous post.

Yes.. thats far fetched.. but having 7 guys make it seems more than likely..
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Nov 10 @ 10:19 AM ET
I have heard this multiple times.. Why are the odds against the Flyers d-men panning out.

By my count, right now we have 4 up. They all look great so far. We still have Morin on the cusp.. odds are with him.

Myers playing down in LHV has had a heck of a start to his pro career. Odds are not against him.

Theres 6 right there.

Then there are a handful of other guys still developing. If statistics are what we are going by... at least one of those guys will make it to the NHL.

So why do people keep on insisting that the odds are against us?

- jak521


History.
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Nov 10 @ 10:28 AM ET
Who sits when AMAC returns. Manning I assume?
- hockeylover




hope you are right but I think it moves between Manning and Sanheim, game specific will be the excuse
ggunky
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I like cold beverages, NJ
Joined: 04.09.2008

Nov 10 @ 10:39 AM ET
What do you do if Morin, Myers and Friedman all become NHL ready in the next 3 years? Carry 8 D for a short time until they prove it then you move someone...It's a great problem to have and one the Flyers probably never have had with developing defensemen.
- dragonoffrost


You look at what the Preds have done.

They had guys like Weber, Suter and the kid they just traded(Samuel Girard) in the Turris deal.

You turn you assets into proven, cost controlled NHL players.

ggunky
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I like cold beverages, NJ
Joined: 04.09.2008

Nov 10 @ 10:41 AM ET
I have heard this multiple times.. Why are the odds against the Flyers d-men panning out.

By my count, right now we have 4 up. They all look great so far. We still have Morin on the cusp.. odds are with him.

Myers playing down in LHV has had a heck of a start to his pro career. Odds are not against him.

Theres 6 right there.

Then there are a handful of other guys still developing. If statistics are what we are going by... at least one of those guys will make it to the NHL.

So why do people keep on insisting that the odds are against us?

- jak521


I say, statistics tell us the Flyers still have many more defensemen that will pan out. I say this because of how few have panned out over the last 50 years!


ggunky
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I like cold beverages, NJ
Joined: 04.09.2008

Nov 10 @ 10:42 AM ET
You look at what the Preds have done.

They had guys like Weber, Suter and the kid they just traded(Samuel Girard) in the Turris deal.

You turn you assets into proven, cost controlled NHL players.

- ggunky


Edit: yes i know they lost Suter to free agency, but i also think they learned from that situation.
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

Nov 10 @ 10:43 AM ET
you think Montreal does that deal 1 for 1
- rinaldo



I don't know right now.

Galchenyuks value is low. Maybe you have to add but shouldn't be much. I guess it depends on how bad they want a top 4 dman. It's not like they come cheap.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Nov 10 @ 10:44 AM ET
I have heard this multiple times.. Why are the odds against the Flyers d-men panning out.

By my count, right now we have 4 up. They all look great so far. We still have Morin on the cusp.. odds are with him.

Myers playing down in LHV has had a heck of a start to his pro career. Odds are not against him.

Theres 6 right there.

Then there are a handful of other guys still developing. If statistics are what we are going by... at least one of those guys will make it to the NHL.

So why do people keep on insisting that the odds are against us?

- jak521


In general, odds of every hot shot prospect panning out as an NHL regular (at least more than a journeyman type) are against you. However, you have to look at each player individually as well. I don't think that all of Sanheim, Morin, Hagg, and Myers will be top-3 or top-4 caliber players; most likely, one of them won't pass the test. I do think, however, that they can all be key parts of a top NHL blueline, and have seen nothing so far that leads me to believe otherwise apart from Myers' injury history (although nothing has been chronic, yet).
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Nov 10 @ 10:45 AM ET
History.
- MJL

History has nothing to do with now.

Right now we have 4 currently on the roster. One that will be, and some may argue should have been since game one this year (Morin). Then you have Myers who is having a fantastic start to his pro career, and many pundits thinking he could be the second best of the bunch.

Statistics like that dont measure variables.

So looking at what the Flyers have TODAY.. do you still honestly think the odds are stacked against us seeing two more of the 7 defensive prospects currently not playing in the NHL landing an NHL job in the future?
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

Nov 10 @ 10:46 AM ET
Edit: yes i know they lost Suter to free agency, but i also think they learned from that situation.
- ggunky



If push comes to shove you make a deal like Nashville did for Johannson. Moved a talented young defender to get a young number 1 center.

If all the dmen turn out great then Maybe you move one for a young talent upfront. A young sniper to pair with Patrick for the future
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Nov 10 @ 10:50 AM ET
I don't know right now.

Galchenyuks value is low. Maybe you have to add but shouldn't be much. I guess it depends on how bad they want a top 4 dman. It's not like they come cheap.

- J35Bacher


I think they could get better than Gudas 1-for-1 if they actively shopped Galchenyuk. I think it would be Gudas and one of our center prospects, likely either Martel (from Quebec) or Vorobyov, and likely a mid-round pick. I wouldn't give up Rubstov or Frost, none of the young D, and no 1st/2nd rounders. So if you could get him for Gudas, Vorobyov, and a 4th, I'd be very tempted.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Nov 10 @ 10:53 AM ET
History has nothing to do with now.

Right now we have 4 currently on the roster. One that will be, and some may argue should have been since game one this year (Morin). Then you have Myers who is having a fantastic start to his pro career, and many pundits thinking he could be the second best of the bunch.

Statistics like that dont measure variables.

So looking at what the Flyers have TODAY.. do you still honestly think the odds are stacked against us seeing two more of the 7 defensive prospects currently not playing in the NHL landing an NHL job in the future?

- jak521


He said, "Odds are against every Flyers defense prospect panning out." Also, what do you consider them to be? If you think that you're gonna have 6-7 prospects that are top-3 defenders, then yes, I think the odds are against you. If you want 3 of 7/8 prospects to become legit top-6 players, then the odds are much better.
ggunky
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I like cold beverages, NJ
Joined: 04.09.2008

Nov 10 @ 10:53 AM ET
If push comes to shove you make a deal like Nashville did for Johannson. Moved a talented young defender to get a young number 1 center.

If all the dmen turn out great then Maybe you move one for a young talent upfront. A young sniper to pair with Patrick for the future

- J35Bacher



Exactly.

You turn your young asset into a cost controlled prove NHL player.

jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Nov 10 @ 10:55 AM ET
He said, "Odds are against every Flyers defense prospect panning out." Also, what do you consider them to be? If you think that you're gonna have 6-7 prospects that are top-3 defenders, then yes, I think the odds are against you. If you want 3 of 7/8 prospects to become legit top-6 players, then the odds are much better.
- jmatchett383

I already addressed that. I misread and acknowledged that I agree that not every single drafted d-prospect will make it.

I do think the odds of having a top 6 of drafted D-men is IN our favor (looking at each player independently and not at some hypothetical historical account of drafted players reaching the NHL).

I never said they would all be top pairing or top 4. I do think we will have an all drafted and homegrown top 6 in the very near future though.
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

Nov 10 @ 10:56 AM ET
I think they could get better than Gudas 1-for-1 if they actively shopped Galchenyuk. I think it would be Gudas and one of our center prospects, likely either Martel (from Quebec) or Vorobyov, and likely a mid-round pick. I wouldn't give up Rubstov or Frost, none of the young D, and no 1st/2nd rounders. So if you could get him for Gudas, Vorobyov, and a 4th, I'd be very tempted.
- jmatchett383



I would rather insert Martel before Vorobyov. I think he'll be a sleeper moving forward.

Yeah. It's tough. I agree they maybe could get more 1 for 1 but it's tough for teams to move top 4 guys.

It was just a thought.
VladDrag
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: West Chester, PA
Joined: 01.13.2009

Nov 10 @ 10:57 AM ET
If push comes to shove you make a deal like Nashville did for Johannson. Moved a talented young defender to get a young number 1 center.

If all the dmen turn out great then Maybe you move one for a young talent upfront. A young sniper to pair with Patrick for the future

- J35Bacher


I have a strong feeling that a dman will be moved in 2 years to bring in an established goal scorer.

Just a hunch.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Nov 10 @ 10:58 AM ET
I already addressed that. I misread and acknowledged that I agree that not every single drafted d-prospect will make it.

I do think the odds of having a top 6 of drafted D-men is IN our favor (looking at each player independently and not at some hypothetical historical account of drafted players reaching the NHL).

I never said they would all be top pairing or top 4. I do think we will have an all drafted and homegrown top 6 in the very near future though.

- jak521


I'm a big fan of underlined and italicized posts. But strikethrough is best.

That said, I think they have the ability to ice a top-6 of homegrown (Myers was not drafted) players. Nothing guaranteed with Morin/Myers/etc, but having 2 pan out as legit top-6 players seems favorable.
rinaldo
Joined: 05.10.2011

Nov 10 @ 11:00 AM ET
I don't know right now.

Galchenyuks value is low. Maybe you have to add but shouldn't be much. I guess it depends on how bad they want a top 4 dman. It's not like they come cheap.

- J35Bacher

imo still selling his potential. think a nice add would need to be included.
Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

Nov 10 @ 11:08 AM ET
How bout this Shipachyov dbag that just retired
jak521
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Buckle Up.
Joined: 02.19.2008

Nov 10 @ 11:12 AM ET
I'm a big fan of underlined and italicized posts. But strikethrough is best.

That said, I think they have the ability to ice a top-6 of homegrown (Myers was not drafted) players. Nothing guaranteed with Morin/Myers/etc, but having 2 pan out as legit top-6 players seems favorable.

- jmatchett383

Which was exactly my point. I dont see it as having the odds stacked against you at all at this point. if anything it looks to be closer to the opposite. Kudos to Ron and the scouts.
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

Nov 10 @ 11:16 AM ET
imo still selling his potential. think a nice add would need to be included.
- rinaldo



Agree.

It was just a thought since they want a top 4 dman and Gudas would probably be one of the easiest to move based on the direction of the Flyers compared to other teams.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Nov 10 @ 11:16 AM ET
How bout this Shipachyov dbag that just retired
- Giroux_Is_God


On the one hand, I feel bad for him because he was signed with the understanding of being in the NHL. On the other hand, refusing to play in the AHL having never played on a NA rink before isn't fair to the rest of the players in league. I doubt his name will ever pop up in North America again.
J35Bacher
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 04.03.2014

Nov 10 @ 11:16 AM ET
Which was exactly my point. I dont see it as having the odds stacked against you at all at this point. if anything it looks to be closer to the opposite. Kudos to Ron and the scouts.
- jak521



If Carolina can get a top 6 of all homegrown defenders then so can the Flyers.
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