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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Wrap: Flyers Prey on Panthers, 5-1
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YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Oct 18 @ 11:25 AM ET
I’m not a stats guy but these are eye opening.

Love the behind the net plays I’m seeing so far. Using on the PP to switch things up a bit has been good to see. The new assistant coach’s influence, you think?

- Marc D

From what I have heard, I would suspect he has had some influence in creating the types of plays that have a higher % of scoring
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Oct 18 @ 11:26 AM ET
Florida was dominant at times. The opening 5-6 minutes was all Florida. Their top line is very very good. Dadanov is a legit player. Hadn’t seen him play much before.
- Marc D


He played for them in the early 2010's, went to the KHL for a few years, and came back this season. Dude always seemed like a decent player.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Oct 18 @ 11:30 AM ET
Columbus is still good.

I don't think Detroit should be good. They confuse me right now.

Washington is going to have to deal with the lack of depth from their moves.

Our lucky shooting stats are bettered by NJD's lucky shooting stats.

MTL can't buy a goal, but their offense is weak IMO. I think they had a horrible offseason, and are going to need Price to steal a playoff spot.

- YuenglingJagr


When I watched Montreal, I wasn't sure how they were trying to play. I've seen Claude Julien teams for years, and that was the most lost I've seen one of his teams look on offense. I don't watch them all the time, but they just looked really...it was just really odd. Like they have some talent, not an excessive amount, but the talent they have just isn't playing with the right guys. They just looked really off, and their defense can't help them in transition
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Oct 18 @ 11:31 AM ET
That's the thing about the numbers, though -- yeah, we'll see some normalization. Like I said, it's almost impossible for Neuvirth to be as bad as he was last year, and he probably wasn't as good as he was that one year, so I get what you're saying.

And by now, most of us know that the season gets harder in 10-game increments.

But at the same time, what I am talking about as far as the good things are not necessarily going to show up in the stats but are obvious.

Yeah, Couts is shooting a high percentage. But for the first time in his life, he has honest-to-God true NHL offensive talent on both of his wings and is expected to score.

Are his percentages gonna last? No. I understand statistics and math.

Do I think he's gonna pot 25 goals? Yup. By virtue of who he's playing with and the role he's slotted in.

I believe in the method, but sometimes the method can't supersede when guys are playing in different roles

- AllInForFlyers


The points are fun. I am not going to act like I am mad about it. I love it. I just focus more on the process, and I don't think all 4 lines are there yet. That has not shown up yet on the box score though so the Flyers have a .667 pts percentage. That is 109 points on the season (Columbus finished with 108 last year)
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Oct 18 @ 11:34 AM ET
The points are fun. I am not going to act like I am mad about it. I love it. I just focus more on the process, and I don't think all 4 lines are there yet. That has not shown up yet on the box score though so the Flyers have a .667 pts percentage. That is 109 points on the season (Columbus finished with 108 last year)
- YuenglingJagr


Agreed -- I thought 94-96 points, and I do kinda think they make it

I mean, yeah. I don't think Filppula's gonna score 50-plus goals, you know? But it's a walk year. Maybe he does give them 20?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Oct 18 @ 11:35 AM ET
I find it funny that Hakstol can't be criticized because certain players are scoring points.

Flyers are 3-0 when Brandon Manning is playing, so obviously that is the right decision? We can all agree to that right?

There are good things happening so far, but the season is 6 games old. Giroux is shooting 36%, Coots has a ridiculous 20% on-ice shooting percentage (25% himself). His PDO is 116. Nolan Patrick has a 40% Corsi, but has yet to be on the ice for a goal against. Filppula is shooting 40%. Provorov and Gudas lead the team in giveaways.

They have the 4th highest team shooting percentage in the league. Last year they finished 24th. I don't suspect they will stay 4th.

They are a different team in the offensive zone. The behind the net plays are very fun to watch and they are getting to the net much easier. The speed at which the team is able to move up the ice has been a breath of fresh air. They are absolutely a better hockey team than last year, and they are seeing that plus some luck (which didn't exist last year).

As some of the unsustainable percentages from guys like Giroux, Coots, and Filppula come back to earth, hopefully it will pick up for the other guys like Jake, Weal, and Sanheim.

- YuenglingJagr



Nobody has stated that Hakstol can't be criticized.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Oct 18 @ 11:40 AM ET
That guy was key to the team's success. Didn't necessarily put up sexy numbers for them, but was just a very good player who did everything well. They should have tried to move Hagelin to keep him.
- jmatchett383


Yeah. Something like that. They're missing what he gave them. I think Hagelin's good for them, too, but you watch them more than me, so I defer to you on that assessment
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Oct 18 @ 11:40 AM ET
Agreed -- I thought 94-96 points, and I do kinda think they make it

I mean, yeah. I don't think Filppula's gonna score 50-plus goals, you know? But it's a walk year. Maybe he does give them 20?

- AllInForFlyers

Maybe if he stays on the top PP. If he gets close to 45 points I will be happy as long as he doesn't give up too much.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Oct 18 @ 11:42 AM ET
Maybe if he stays on the top PP. If he gets close to 45 points I will be happy as long as he doesn't give up too much.
- YuenglingJagr


Absolutely -- I was thinking 8-10 goals and 25-30 points, as well as basically no real impact at ES

I will gladly take 40-plus points. Gladly
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Oct 18 @ 11:43 AM ET
But players decline, though -- I understand criticism. I really do. But at what point does it become excessive?

I read and watch a lot of other teams, and while there are always exceptions, it's rare when you just see other fanbases just turn on the good players who have performed for you like Philadelphia does

The Sedins are a perfect example. They are shadows of what they once were, and Vancouver is not very good. They make a lot of money as well. They haven't won a Cup, and they've been to one Cup final, just like Giroux

How they're treated is totally different than how some -- not all -- in this fanbase treat players who, again, were drafted by you and excelled for you

No one is calling for Henrik Sedin to be stripped of the C. They understand that they are moving down the lineup, are situational players now, but they are appreciative of what they did for the team over the course of their careers

At what point does someone like Claude Giroux get that?

- AllInForFlyers


Giroux experienced a sharp decline through what was supposed to be his peak career years. H. Sedin was potting 90-100 pts consistently up to 32 years old. They came on a little later in their careers but maintained longer.

So if G rebounds this year and has another 2 or 3 years of solid 1st line numbers on a playoff team...he'll get it. I'm hoping for it.
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Oct 18 @ 11:43 AM ET
Absolutely -- I was thinking 8-10 goals and 25-30 points, as well as basically no real impact at ES

I will gladly take 40-plus points. Gladly

- AllInForFlyers

I think he needs to get 40 if hes on the top PP unit
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Oct 18 @ 11:44 AM ET
Yeah. Something like that. They're missing what he gave them. I think Hagelin's good for them, too, but you watch them more than me, so I defer to you on that assessment
- AllInForFlyers


I don't watch them nearly as much as I used to (damn kids). But Hagelin doesn't offer the same tools that Bonino did. He's fast and...well, he's fast. He has a role, but he was under contract and Bonino wasn't. Either way, everyone knew changes were coming to them this past offseason.
VladDrag
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: West Chester, PA
Joined: 01.13.2009

Oct 18 @ 11:45 AM ET
That's the thing about the numbers, though -- yeah, we'll see some normalization. Like I said, it's almost impossible for Neuvirth to be as bad as he was last year, and he probably wasn't as good as he was that one year, so I get what you're saying.

And by now, most of us know that the season gets harder in 10-game increments.

But at the same time, what I am talking about as far as the good things are not necessarily going to show up in the stats but are obvious.

Yeah, Couts is shooting a high percentage. But for the first time in his life, he has honest-to-God true NHL offensive talent on both of his wings and is expected to score.

Are his percentages gonna last? No. I understand statistics and math.

Do I think he's gonna pot 25 goals? Yup. By virtue of who he's playing with and the role he's slotted in.

I believe in the method, but sometimes the method can't supersede when guys are playing in different roles

- AllInForFlyers


Just nitpicking, but I think that number is a bit high. He shoots around 10% for his career. That means he'll have to shoot the puck about 250 times throughout the season. Even right now, he's shooting about 2.6 shots per game which only leads to about 213 shots thru 82 games. He's never shot more than 165 times in a season (he was close in 15-16, if he stayed healthy he would have shot 200 shots).

I think a better number is 20, 22 max.

Having said all of this, it's only stats based, and doesn't mean much in the real world.

jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Oct 18 @ 11:47 AM ET
Just nitpicking, but I think that number is a bit high. He shoots around 10% for his career. That means he'll have to shoot the puck about 250 times throughout the season. Even right now, he's shooting about 2.6 shots per game which only leads to about 213 shots thru 82 games. He's never shot more than 165 times in a season (he was close in 15-16, if he stayed healthy he would have shot 200 shots).

I think a better number is 20, 22 max.

Having said all of this, it's only stats based, and doesn't mean much in the real world.

- VladDrag


He's also surrounded (at ES) by arguably the best 2 playmakers on the team, meaning that he should be getting better shots. Maybe not 40%, but probably closer to 12-13%.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Oct 18 @ 11:48 AM ET
hopefully we are not saying this about the Flyers and Wayne Train in 2 years
- Marc D


For the record, and I understand every single reason why they shouldn't, but...I'd probably pay him and keep him

Yeah, that could bite you in the arse. I could easily be wrong about that, if that's what they decide to do

But sometimes, I do think you take the risk on guys you know and just try to make it work if he maintains, what, 20-plus goals and 45-50 points over the next couple of years

Can't project what that contract would look like, and I know that's gonna be a brutal test for Hextall, but I'd probably do it

I can understand why some wouldn't and if Hextall doesn't, though. Won't criticize it, because there's reasons to not
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Oct 18 @ 11:49 AM ET
For the record, and I understand every single reason why they shouldn't, but...I'd probably pay him and keep him

Yeah, that could bite you in the arse. I could easily be wrong about that, if that's what they decide to do

But sometimes, I do think you take the risk on guys you know and just try to make it work if he maintains, what, 20-plus goals and 45-50 points over the next couple of years

Can't project what that contract would look like, and I know that's gonna be a brutal test for Hextall, but I'd probably do it

I can understand why some wouldn't and if Hextall doesn't, though. Won't criticize it, because there's reasons to not

- AllInForFlyers


This one we might have to take up to UFA. He's going to command a bundle. Have to be careful here. I'm leaning towards signing the player, with everything he does bring
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Oct 18 @ 11:49 AM ET
For the record, and I understand every single reason why they shouldn't, but...I'd probably pay him and keep him

Yeah, that could bite you in the arse. I could easily be wrong about that, if that's what they decide to do

But sometimes, I do think you take the risk on guys you know and just try to make it work if he maintains, what, 20-plus goals and 45-50 points over the next couple of years

Can't project what that contract would look like, and I know that's gonna be a brutal test for Hextall, but I'd probably do it

I can understand why some wouldn't and if Hextall doesn't, though. Won't criticize it, because there's reasons to not

- AllInForFlyers


It's a contract that you're not going to like the last 2 or so years. But right now, this team should go all in within the next 2-3 years, and that means keeping Simmonds. He'll probably want 6 years, so I'd keep him, knowing that you're really only getting 4 years of him, which should be your window.

If they win one Cup in the next 4-5 years, I'll live with the consequences afterwards and be content. Not necessarily happy, but content. I just want 1 before I die, as it's the last current item on my bucket list.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Oct 18 @ 11:53 AM ET
I think he needs to get 40 if hes on the top PP unit
- YuenglingJagr


That's fair. I don't expect him to do what Schenn did, but you gotta find a way to pop 10 from that slot on the PP

I know 40 isn't an easy number to get, because you do have to get some work done at ES and your wingers play a role.

I didn't expect much from him, tbh. If he gets the 10 goals on the PP and the 30 points I thought he'd max out at and doesn't get caved in at ES, that's a win for me
YuenglingJagr
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: under the bridge
Joined: 10.05.2015

Oct 18 @ 11:54 AM ET
It's a contract that you're not going to like the last 2 or so years. But right now, this team should go all in within the next 2-3 years, and that means keeping Simmonds. He'll probably want 6 years, so I'd keep him, knowing that you're really only getting 4 years of him, which should be your window.

If they win one Cup in the next 4-5 years, I'll live with the consequences afterwards and be content. Not necessarily happy, but content. I just want 1 before I die, as it's the last current item on my bucket list.

- jmatchett383

What if that contract puts in jeopardy the contracts of all the prospects they've been drafting for the last 4 years?
VladDrag
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: West Chester, PA
Joined: 01.13.2009

Oct 18 @ 11:55 AM ET
He's also surrounded (at ES) by arguably the best 2 playmakers on the team, meaning that he should be getting better shots. Maybe not 40%, but probably closer to 12-13%.
- jmatchett383


Absolutely, he should be, and he is getting more shots and converting more of them. I just think asking him to shoot at 12-13% is unlikely, statistically speaking.

At this point (until he proves he can keep a shooting % above 12% for 20+ games) I think he gets about 200 shots per game, which puts him around 20 goals at his current career shooting %.

I reserve the right to change, should the stats tell me otherwise. I don't want to put huge expectations on a player only to have him not live up to them.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Oct 18 @ 11:55 AM ET
This one we might have to take up to UFA. He's going to command a bundle. Have to be careful here. I'm leaning towards signing the player, with everything he does bring
- Just5


That is a tough one. Because I think he's getting 25 or so goals all the way to his walk year, and the goals he scores are goals not everybody is tough enough to get
VladDrag
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: West Chester, PA
Joined: 01.13.2009

Oct 18 @ 11:57 AM ET
It's a contract that you're not going to like the last 2 or so years. But right now, this team should go all in within the next 2-3 years, and that means keeping Simmonds. He'll probably want 6 years, so I'd keep him, knowing that you're really only getting 4 years of him, which should be your window.

If they win one Cup in the next 4-5 years, I'll live with the consequences afterwards and be content. Not necessarily happy, but content. I just want 1 before I die, as it's the last current item on my bucket list.

- jmatchett383


I agree. Sure, try to sign him to 5 years or less, but it's not going to happen.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Oct 18 @ 11:58 AM ET
It's a contract that you're not going to like the last 2 or so years. But right now, this team should go all in within the next 2-3 years, and that means keeping Simmonds. He'll probably want 6 years, so I'd keep him, knowing that you're really only getting 4 years of him, which should be your window.

If they win one Cup in the next 4-5 years, I'll live with the consequences afterwards and be content. Not necessarily happy, but content. I just want 1 before I die, as it's the last current item on my bucket list.

- jmatchett383


They have to go all in while Giroux, Voracek and Simmonds still are projectable and Patrick is on his ELC

They have to find a way to get this done over the next three years, if they do keep Simmonds. Because as much as I respect the guy, Giroux's decline will be in full effect then and while I think Voracek might age well, I could be wrong about that, too
ggunky
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I like cold beverages, NJ
Joined: 04.09.2008

Oct 18 @ 11:59 AM ET
The Sharks were perennial underachieving, choking dogs....big difference
- KINGKENZO



Agreed.

Someone has to take the fall for never living up to expectations.

G hasn't had the teams around his, as Captain, that Marleau did.

ggunky
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: I like cold beverages, NJ
Joined: 04.09.2008

Oct 18 @ 12:01 PM ET
Columbus is still good.

I don't think Detroit should be good. They confuse me right now.

Washington is going to have to deal with the lack of depth from their moves.

Our lucky shooting stats are bettered by NJD's lucky shooting stats.

MTL can't buy a goal, but their offense is weak IMO. I think they had a horrible offseason, and are going to need Price to steal a playoff spot.

- YuenglingJagr


I don't see the Habs making the playoffs. The only way they do make the playoffs is going full Guy Boucher and playing no offense and trying to win 1-0 every night.

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