Not sure why people think 4 years at 4.5m for a ~30 point Dman stings.. thats better value than the Dumoulin, Larsson contracts where you don't even get 20 points and you're over 4mil.
- j.boyd919

You're drastically underestimating the value of Larsson's ability as a shut down defender. How much PP time does Larson get versus Demers?

You're drastically underestimating the value of Larsson's ability as a shut down defender. How much PP time does Larson get versus Demers?
- MJL

How are you measuring his "shut down ability"?

He doesn't get much PP time at all, because he isn't that skilled offensively. 13 minutes vs Demers 131 minutes. Which is part of my point, that he isn't that skilled, therefore he isn't given PP opportunity, because he's not as good of a hockey player.

There is no place for Jagr (unless you take away ice time from the youngsters).

Domi - Stepan - Keller
Duclair - Dvorak - Fischer
Perlini - Strome - Rieder
Martinook - Cousins - Richardson
Crouse
- DutchSenators

Jagr is a huge upgrade on Rieder, who is terrible.

You're completely wasting your time talking to that guy.
- wreckage

At least someone gets it.

How are you measuring his "shut down ability"?

He doesn't get much PP time at all, because he isn't that skilled offensively. 13 minutes vs Demers 131 minutes. Which is part of my point, that he isn't that skilled, therefore he isn't given PP opportunity, because he's not as good of a hockey player.
- j.boyd919

He's not give PP time because he's not a good hockey player...that's great!!!!

At least someone gets it.
- James_Tanner

No..he was talking about you.

No..he was talking about you.
- Garnie

Exactly. And it is a waste of time. I don't know how much more clear I can make that.

He's not give PP time because he's not a good hockey player...that's great!!!!


- Garnie

So you actually can't provide any type of actual analysis, data, or argument huh? Yeah. You are a waste of time.

Not sure why people think 4 years at 4.5m for a ~30 point Dman stings.. thats better value than the Dumoulin, Larsson contracts where you don't even get 20 points and you're over 4mil.
- j.boyd919

Yeah thats a fair point even if he is on the wrong side of 30.

Yeah thats a fair point even if he is on the wrong side of 30.
- Cloud

Demers is 29, and will be 33 when his contract is up. For a Dman that plays his style of hockey, his production shouldn't drop to much.

So you actually can't provide any type of actual analysis, data, or argument huh? Yeah. You are a waste of time.
- j.boyd919

It's really hard to compare them fairly because one of them played the majority of his minutes with Klefbom and McDavid, two of the best players in the NHL.

Even if Larsson is better, it's not by much, and it certainly doesn't make the Taylor Hall trade look any less like the worst trade of all time.

Demers is 29, and will be 33 when his contract is up. For a Dman that plays his style of hockey, his production shouldn't drop to much.
- j.boyd919

Well now youre just being rude, shooting me down again (even tho you are right once more).

It's really hard to compare them fairly because one of them played the majority of his minutes with Klefbom and McDavid, two of the best players in the NHL.

Even if Larsson is better, it's not by much, and it certainly doesn't make the Taylor Hall trade look any less like the worst trade of all time.
- James_Tanner

Larsson is a decent 2nd pairing defenseman. He's not terrible, but he's not this amazing shutdown defenseman that everyone thinks he is.

There's only like 3 or 4 true shutdown defensemen. Vlasic, Tanev, HJammer come to mind. Then there's the next tier of guys like Dumoulin, Larsson, Martin, Manson, etc.. that are good, but not the great shutdown guys that people think they are.

Well now youre just being rude, shooting me down again (even tho you are right once more).
- Cloud

I tried to let you land on a pillow! Didn't want to hurt your fall!

How are you measuring his "shut down ability"?

He doesn't get much PP time at all, because he isn't that skilled offensively. 13 minutes vs Demers 131 minutes. Which is part of my point, that he isn't that skilled, therefore he isn't given PP opportunity, because he's not as good of a hockey player.
- j.boyd919

That's complete bull. There are players in the league with varying specialties especially with defenseman. The very best are skilled and can play at a high level in all situations and all manpower. The rest have varying skill sets that are better in one area versus another. So lets make a fair comparison. No doubt that Demers is the better offensive talent. Let's compare points scored at 5 on 5 play. So what do you prefer, a defenseman who is very good at playing against top lines in defensive situations, and on the PK or a puck mover who can play on the PP? Which has more value? The best way to answer that is what does a team need, what makes them a better team and which player suits their needs. People keep wanting to compare players thinking it's an apples to apples comparison and it's not.

It's really hard to compare them fairly because one of them played the majority of his minutes with Klefbom and McDavid, two of the best players in the NHL.

Even if Larsson is better, it's not by much, and it certainly doesn't make the Taylor Hall trade look any less like the worst trade of all time.
- James_Tanner

Ultimately, what is a GM's job?

That's complete bull. There are players in the league with varying specialties especially with defenseman. The very best are skilled and can play at a high level in all situations and all manpower. The rest have varying skill sets that are better in one area versus another. So lets make a fair comparison. No doubt that Demers is the better offensive talent. Let's compare points scored at 5 on 5 play. So what do you prefer, a defenseman who is very good at playing against top lines in defensive situations, and on the PK or a puck mover who can play on the PP? Which has more value? The best way to answer that is what does a team need, what makes them a better team and which player suits their needs. People keep wanting to compare players thinking it's an apples to apples comparison and it's not.
- MJL

Do you want to compare 1 year, 3 years, 5 years? Are we only comparing points? Are we comparing individual points or team points at 5v5 when each player is on the ice? Or are we comparing shot metrics? Scoring chances/high danger?

Do you want to compare 1 year, 3 years, 5 years? Are we only comparing points? Are we comparing individual points or team points at 5v5 when each player is on the ice? Or are we comparing shot metrics? Scoring chances/high danger?
- j.boyd919

You didn't address any of the points I've made. So now you want to compare a 24 year old player to a 29 year old over multiple season. Players which play in different situations, on different teams, with different linemates and opponents. The moral is comparing them statistically as the only method is simply not viable and not realistic.

That's complete bull. There are players in the league with varying specialties especially with defenseman.
- MJL

I agree, there are varying specialties. Some players are more well rounded than others.

The very best are skilled and can play at a high level in all situations and all manpower. The rest have varying skill sets that are better in one area versus another.
- MJL

This is also true, while Demers and Larsson play similar levels of competition (because data has proven that Quality of Competition evens itself out over a large sample size such as 82 games) Demers gets PP AND PK time, whereas Larson gets PK time, making Demers more versatile.

So lets make a fair comparison. No doubt that Demers is the better offensive talent. Let's compare points scored at 5 on 5 play. So what do you prefer, a defenseman who is very good at playing against top lines in defensive situations, and on the PK or a puck mover who can play on the PP? Which has more value?
- MJL

Do you want to compare 1 year, 3 years, 5 years? Are we only comparing points? Are we comparing individual points or team points at 5v5 when each player is on the ice? Or are we comparing shot metrics? Scoring chances/high danger?

The best way to answer that is what does a team need, what makes them a better team and which player suits their needs. People keep wanting to compare players thinking it's an apples to apples comparison and it's not.
- MJL

It actually is comparing apples to apples, because you're comparing 2 players of the same position and you're goal is to make the team better.

Would you like Player A (contributes on PP and PK, puts up ~30 points a season, while playing vs. top 6 competition)?

or

Would you like player B (contributes on PK, puts up ~20 points a season, while playing vs. top 6 competition)?

You didn't address any of the points I've made. So now you want to compare a 24 year old player to a 29 year old over multiple season. Players which play in different situations, on different teams, with different linemates and opponents. The moral is comparing them statistically as the only method is simply not viable and not realistic.
- MJL

Age means nothing if we are comparing who is the better hockey player RIGHT NOW. Comparing previous seasons (regardless of age) gives you insight on how the players have performed in recent years, giving you a larger sample size and more data to evaluate players. They players don't really play in different situations, aside from Demers playing on the PP and Larsson not. Their QoC is pretty similar. Larsson actually plays on a better team because it has McDavid and his goalie was far more consistent than Demers's (who also played on an injury ravaged FLA).


That better? I've addressed your entire post.

This is also true, while Demers and Larsson play similar levels of competition (because data has proven that Quality of Competition evens itself out over a large sample size such as 82 games) Demers gets PP AND PK time, whereas Larson gets PK time, making Demers more versatile.


- j.boyd919

I don't believe they play similar levels of competition. All special team ice time is not equal either. Quality of competition is a poor stat. It doesn't even out a large sample size at all. Roles that defenseman play such as Larsson tend to stay the same over a season. Big difference between the levels of competition game in and game out for various players. One of the fallacies of analytics. Sometimes a player doesn't play in a situation such as the PP because the coach makes different choices and not because the player isn't capable.

Do you want to compare 1 year, 3 years, 5 years? Are we only comparing points? Are we comparing individual points or team points at 5v5 when each player is on the ice? Or are we comparing shot metrics? Scoring chances/high danger?


- j.boyd919

Can't be done. Apples to oranges.

It actually is comparing apples to apples, because you're comparing 2 players of the same position and you're goal is to make the team better.

Would you like Player A (contributes on PP and PK, puts up ~30 points a season, while playing vs. top 6 competition)?

or

Would you like player B (contributes on PK, puts up ~20 points a season, while playing vs. top 6 competition)?


- j.boyd919

I discussed this in my previous post. Depends on what the team needs are. Edmonton in 15/16 was a poor defensive team and missed the playoffs. In 16/17 they trade Hall for Larsson, become a better offensive team and a top 10 team defensively and make the playoffs. The latter due in large part to adding Larsson. Seems as though he made a significant impact in making the team better.

Age means nothing if we are comparing who is the better hockey player RIGHT NOW. Comparing previous seasons (regardless of age) gives you insight on how the players have performed in recent years, giving you a larger sample size and more data to evaluate players. They players don't really play in different situations, aside from Demers playing on the PP and Larsson not. Their QoC is pretty similar. Larsson actually plays on a better team because it has McDavid and his goalie was far more consistent than Demers's (who also played on an injury ravaged FLA).


That better? I've addressed your entire post.
- j.boyd919

You asked if you wanted to compare players over a number of years. Age does matter. Players in the NHL play in drastically different situations comparatively.

He's not give PP time because he's not a good hockey player...that's great!!!!


- Garnie

Smokes, man. Learn to read. He said he's not "as good"

I don't believe they play similar levels of competition. All special team ice time is not equal either. Quality of competition is a poor stat. It doesn't even out a large sample size at all. Roles that defenseman play such as Larsson tend to stay the same over a season. Big difference between the levels of competition game in and game out for various players. One of the fallacies of analytics. Sometimes a player doesn't play in a situation such as the PP because the coach makes different choices and not because the player isn't capable.
- MJL

Larsson top 5 forwards he was on the ice vs:

Rackell
Getzlaf
H. Sedin
D. Sedin
Pavelski

Demers top 5 forwards he was on the ice vs:

Kadri
Kucherov
Komarov
Killorn
Marchand

Who had the tougher opponents? I would say they are fairly even. Given by point totals you've got (Larsson's opponents) 286 vs (Demers opponents) 299, I would assume that if we went down the list, you would see a trend where the players each of them played had around the same amount of points... thus making the Quality of Competition fairly even.

Can't be done. Apples to oranges.
- MJL

This was in response to you asking to compare scoring at 5v5, now all of a sudden you claim it can't be done? You said " Let's compare points scored at 5 on 5 play. So what do you prefer, a defenseman who is very good at playing against top lines in defensive situations, and on the PK or a puck mover who can play on the PP? Which has more value?" And I responded with what are we comparing? Because it absolutely can be done.

I discussed this in my previous post. Depends on what the team needs are. Edmonton in 15/16 was a poor defensive team and missed the playoffs. In 16/17 they trade Hall for Larsson, become a better offensive team and a top 10 team defensively and make the playoffs. The latter due in large part to adding Larsson. Seems as though he made a significant impact in making the team better.
- MJL

Yes, Larsson is a solid player (again, he's a decent middle pairing guy, with no offensive upside.) But I would attribute their success to a healthy McDavid, an awesome year from Draisaitl, and above average play from Cam Talbot. When you've got one of the best players in the world on your team, it can mask a ton of deficiencies.

You asked if you wanted to compare players over a number of years. Age does matter. Players in the NHL play in drastically different situations comparatively.
- MJL

Not really, hockey is not drastically different. It's a pretty simple game to understand. It's not nearly as meticulous as say baseball or football. Comparing 2 players over previous years helps give an idea on what the player is going to do the next season, age doesn't really matter. I doubt Larsson explodes for 60 points just because he's 25 next season and I doubt Demers drops to below 10 points because he's 29 next season. If I'm going to make an evaluation on who is the better hockey player TODAY, then using past results is exactly what someone should do to try and make an educated guess. Do you play the stock market without following trends? Or do you blindly throw money at the screen and hope to hit big?

Larsson top 5 forwards he was on the ice vs:

Rackell
Getzlaf
H. Sedin
D. Sedin
Pavelski

Demers top 5 forwards he was on the ice vs:

Kadri
Kucherov
Komarov
Killorn
Marchand

Who had the tougher opponents? I would say they are fairly even. Given by point totals you've got (Larsson's opponents) 286 vs (Demers opponents) 299, I would assume that if we went down the list, you would see a trend where the players each of them played had around the same amount of points... thus making the Quality of Competition fairly even.


- j.boyd919

Game situations, time place score.

This was in response to you asking to compare scoring at 5v5, now all of a sudden you claim it can't be done? You said " Let's compare points scored at 5 on 5 play. So what do you prefer, a defenseman who is very good at playing against top lines in defensive situations, and on the PK or a puck mover who can play on the PP? Which has more value?" And I responded with what are we comparing? Because it absolutely can be done.


- j.boyd919

Overall, it can't be done. Not well any way. You're confusing things.I suggested simply looking at 5 on 5 point totals simply because Larsson doesn't play on the PP.

Yes, Larsson is a solid player (again, he's a decent middle pairing guy, with no offensive upside.) But I would attribute their success to a healthy McDavid, an awesome year from Draisaitl, and above average play from Cam Talbot. When you've got one of the best players in the world on your team, it can mask a ton of deficiencies.


- j.boyd919

You're underrating Larsson. He's one of the better defensive defenseman in the league. Certainly all of those other factors were a big part of it, but adding Larsson to improve the team defensively was a big part of it.

Not really, hockey is not drastically different. It's a pretty simple game to understand. It's not nearly as meticulous as say baseball or football. Comparing 2 players over previous years helps give an idea on what the player is going to do the next season, age doesn't really matter. I doubt Larsson explodes for 60 points just because he's 25 next season and I doubt Demers drops to below 10 points because he's 29 next season. If I'm going to make an evaluation on who is the better hockey player TODAY, then using past results is exactly what someone should do to try and make an educated guess. Do you play the stock market without following trends? Or do you blindly throw money at the screen and hope to hit big?
- j.boyd919

Equating the stock market is a ridiculous comparison. Young players develop over time and become better players as they enter their prime. Not sure why you think it's fair to compare players without considering age and where they are as players. That's pretty silly. You're far too focused on points which is another way in which you are making poor comparisons. In my opinion Larsson is a better player than Demers is.

You're underrating Larsson. He's one of the better defensive defenseman in the league. Certainly all of those other factors were a big part of it, but adding Larsson to improve the team defensively was a big part of it.





Equating the stock market is a ridiculous comparison. Young players develop over time and become better players as they enter their prime. Not sure why you think it's fair to compare players without considering age and where they are as players. That's pretty silly. You're far too focused on points which is another way in which you are making poor comparisons. In my opinion Larsson is a better player than Demers is.
- MJL

Nah. I'm out. Pointless to run in circles. Agree to disagree.

Nah. I'm out. Pointless to run in circles. Agree to disagree.
- j.boyd919

Agreed. Good convo.