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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Pachla: A look back at the 2016-17 Buffalo Sabres season--April
Author Message
Michael Pachla
Buffalo Sabres
Location: solid!!!
Joined: 09.05.2007

Aug 17 @ 12:23 PM ET
im so glad i made this a thing here
- Sabresfan-365

Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Aug 17 @ 12:24 PM ET
If I'm reading this correctly we were worse offensively?
- sbroads24



we had fewer attempts on goal factoring in score changes (eg. down by one up by one etc.)
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Aug 17 @ 12:25 PM ET

- Michael Pachla



the one good thing to come out of the bylsma era
chilliard77
Location: NY
Joined: 08.23.2011

Aug 17 @ 12:25 PM ET
For old times sake

jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Aug 17 @ 12:25 PM ET
I do, and every single NHL team "parks the bus" at times when defending a lead.
- sbroads24



This strategy is best deployed when you have more than 3 NHL-caliber defensemen
Michael Pachla
Buffalo Sabres
Location: solid!!!
Joined: 09.05.2007

Aug 17 @ 12:27 PM ET
the one good thing to come out of the bylsma era
- Sabresfan-365

I really thought he'd be a good hire...

*shrugs*

Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Aug 17 @ 12:28 PM ET
This strategy is best deployed when you have more than 3 NHL-caliber defensemen
- jcragcrumple


actually if anything this strategy makes more sense when you have no worthy defenders.

in the traditional park the bus defenders collapse and forwards are pulled back. This concedes possession but is designed to limit the amount of quality passes and chances that can be created.

Where it went wrong for bylsma is that he felt this was the optimal strategy to win games. Its optimal use is when you are already winning and need to hold the line for the last bit of the game.
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Aug 17 @ 12:29 PM ET
I really thought he'd be a good hire...

*shrugs*


- Michael Pachla



I'm wrong a lot like really wrong but this one to me seemed so bad from the get go. Just even how it unfolded it felt like he was hired for all the wrong reasons. Was never a good fit.

I dont know the first thing about housley as a coach but at least is resume seems to line up with where this team is at
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Aug 17 @ 12:29 PM ET
For those who missed it in the last blog...


Not that we really care what ESPN says. But here is the top 100 prospects from the insider. I'll only put the Sabres players in here.

http://www.espn.com/nhl/i...co-hischier-mathew-barzal

7. Alexander Nylander, RW, Buffalo Sabres
DOB: 3/02/98 | Ht: 6' 1" | Wt: 181
2016-17 stats, Rochester (AHL): 65 GP | 10 G | 18 A
Projected 2017-18 team: Rochester (AHL)

Nylander had an up-and-down season. He was great at the World Juniors versus his peers yet again. In the pro levels, he struggled to earn the trust of his coaching staff and was sheltered from tough situations, although he was still a top power-play option. His skill is fantastic, as he makes high-level plays seem routine and is quite creative. I wish he was a little quicker, and his off-the-puck game needs a lot of work, but his offensive upside is NHL top-six level.

10. Casey Mittelstadt, C, Buffalo Sabres
DOB: 11/22/98 | Ht: 6' 0.75" | Wt: 201
2016-17 stats, Eden Praire (HS MN): 25 GP | 21 G | 43 A
Projected 2017-18 team: Minnesota (Big Ten)

Mittelstadt has been a highly touted player for the past few years, and was a top player in the USHL this past season along with a stint with his high school team. Mittelstadt is a dynamic playmaker who can generate scoring chances in bunches. He can dangle in open ice with the best of them, and can make a highlight happen at any moment. Mittelstadt sees the ice well, often executing on high-difficulty feeds and being a primary starting point of offense. His skating isn't as dynamic as his hands, but he skates well and has a separation gear in his feet. He isn't as great off the puck; despite a strong frame, he loses more battles than he should. He is committed to the University of Minnesota.

98. Cliff Pu, RW, Buffalo Sabres
DOB: 6/03/98 | Ht: 6' 2" | Wt: 192
2016-17 stats, London (OHL): 63 GP | 35 G | 51 A
Projected 2017-18 team: London (OHL)

Cliff Pu came out of the gates flying this season but cooled down in the second half. All in all, he had an impressive breakout campaign for London, serving as their No. 1 center. He's a great skater with good puck skills and IQ. He doesn't make dominant offensive plays, but he puts the puck in good spots and can create chances from the perimeter. On top of that, he's a reliable defensive player and a shorthanded scoring threat.

100. Rasmus Asplund, C, Buffalo Sabres
DOB: 12/03/97 | Ht: 5' 11" | Wt: 183
2016-17 stats, Farjestad (SHL): 39 GP | 6 G | 13 A
Projected 2017-18 team: Farjestad (SHL)

Rasmus Asplund doesn't wow you on a given shift, but upon careful observation, you see a smart all-around forward who can make plays and be a positive difference-maker every shift. His best trait is his IQ, particularly his vision, as he can make quick reads on the power play. He's not exceptionally quick for a player his size, but he skates fine and competes well at both ends.

The rest:

Brendan Guhle, Buffalo Sabres

Goalies:

18. Ukko-Pekka Luukonen, Buffalo Sabres
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Aug 17 @ 12:30 PM ET

Today @ 10:38 AM ET
Here is what they have as the top 10 per team. Again.. Buffalo only.

http://www.espn.com/nhl/i...luding-2017-18-impact#BUF

Buffalo Sabres


Pipeline rank: 11
Prospects in top 100, top 10 goalies: 4
2017 NHL draft grade: B


PLAYER, POSITION,
OVERALL RANK DOB HT. WT. 2017-18
TEAM
1. Alexander Nylander RW (7) 3/02/98 6' 1" 181 Rochester (AHL)
2. Casey Mittelstadt C (10) 11/22/98 6' 0.75" 201 Minnesota (Big Ten)
3. Cliff Pu RW (98) 6/03/98 6' 2" 192 London (OHL)
4. Rasmus Asplund C (100) 12/03/97 5' 11" 183 Farjestad (SHL)
5. Brendan Guhle D (HM) 7/29/97 6' 3" 192 Rochester (AHL)
6. Casey Fitzgerald D (N/A) 2/25/97 5' 11" 187 Boston College (Hockey East)
7. Viktor Antipin D (N/A) 12/06/92 5' 11" 179 Buffalo (NHL)
8. Nick Baptiste RW (N/A) 8/04/95 6' 1" 205 Buffalo (NHL)
9. Marcus Davidsson C (N/A) 11/18/98 6' 0" 191 Djurgarden (SHL)
10. Ukko-Pekka Luukonen G (G18) 3/09/99 6' 4" 196 HPK (Liiga)
Team overview: The Sabres have picked in the top 10 for two straight drafts, bringing in a pair of quality prospects in Alexander Nylander and Casey Mittelstadt. Later picks like Cliff Pu, Rasmus Asplund and Brendan Guhle also had strong 2016-17 seasons. The system is a little thin after the top names, with their AHL affiliate lacking in potential contributors.

Prospects outside top 100, top 10 goalies: Buffalo is high on Brendan Guhle. I'm not as enthusiastic about him, but I see things to like. He's a fantastic skater, particularly for his size, who can lead an attack well and close his gaps efficiently. I worry that his offensive skills aren't as developed; while he's fine handling the puck, he can be rather ordinary, moving it with his vision rather than his feet.

After a successful few years in the KHL, including being named a first-team All-Star and a leading scorer in last season's playoffs, Antipin looks ready to be a useful NHL player. He's a skilled puck-mover with good mobility. He's small and doesn't play a physical game, but his defense is passable given his gap control and reads.

Nick Baptiste had a solid second pro season. He's a good skater who plays a simple yet effective game. He's not a pure dangler, but he's smart enough to go to the right spots to get his scoring chances.

Scouts I talk to overseas have one common description of Marcus Davidsson: smart. He's a versatile player who can play center or the wing effectively and play a role on both special teams. Davidsson skates at an above-average level, sometimes flashing at a higher level. He can make some offensive plays, works hard to win pucks and projects to have value defensively as a pro.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is a physically towering netminder, and he takes away a lot of net before we even get into his skill set. He's not a super-athletic goalie but rather gets his stops by taking away space, being economical with his movements and reading the play well. He can get across the crease when he needs to, with solid power from his legs, and can make the occasional highlight-reel type of play.

I'm losing patience on Hudson Fasching (No. 11). I see a big man with decent tools and the ability to make plays at both ends, but it just seems like he's never going to develop the offensive instincts to be an important player at the NHL level.

Noteworthy prospect: Casey Fitzgerald is a great skater who can make standout offensive plays. I've always been troubled by his defensive coverage and risk management, but he's at least shown some progress on both fronts. In the end, he's still a work in progress.

2017-18 impact: The Sabres' system isn't ready to graduate too many players, though KHL import Antipin will be an NHL regular and potentially useful on Buffalo's power play. Guhle should get a long look at camp but could probably use some AHL time. Baptiste and Fasching could also contend for a depth role.
jcragcrumple
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Reluctant bridge jumper; 6th round OHL draft pick, YT
Joined: 04.04.2016

Aug 17 @ 12:32 PM ET
actually if anything this strategy makes more sense when you have no worthy defenders.

in the traditional park the bus defenders collapse and forwards are pulled back. This concedes possession but is designed to limit the amount of quality passes and chances that can be created.

- Sabresfan-365



Deploying the forwards to create scoring chances while conceding chances against makes more sense imo. Our d-men would turn average plays into absolute flustercucks. May as well let the forwards try to get another goal to cover up the inevitable collapse. Every time we collapsed in our zone it turned into a shooting gallery
Michael Pachla
Buffalo Sabres
Location: solid!!!
Joined: 09.05.2007

Aug 17 @ 12:32 PM ET
For those who missed it in the last blog...


Not that we really care what ESPN says. But here is the top 100 prospects from the insider. I'll only put the Sabres players in here.

http://www.espn.com/nhl/i...co-hischier-mathew-barzal

7. Alexander Nylander, RW, Buffalo Sabres
DOB: 3/02/98 | Ht: 6' 1" | Wt: 181
2016-17 stats, Rochester (AHL): 65 GP | 10 G | 18 A
Projected 2017-18 team: Rochester (AHL)

Nylander had an up-and-down season. He was great at the World Juniors versus his peers yet again. In the pro levels, he struggled to earn the trust of his coaching staff and was sheltered from tough situations, although he was still a top power-play option. His skill is fantastic, as he makes high-level plays seem routine and is quite creative. I wish he was a little quicker, and his off-the-puck game needs a lot of work, but his offensive upside is NHL top-six level.

10. Casey Mittelstadt, C, Buffalo Sabres
DOB: 11/22/98 | Ht: 6' 0.75" | Wt: 201
2016-17 stats, Eden Praire (HS MN): 25 GP | 21 G | 43 A
Projected 2017-18 team: Minnesota (Big Ten)

Mittelstadt has been a highly touted player for the past few years, and was a top player in the USHL this past season along with a stint with his high school team. Mittelstadt is a dynamic playmaker who can generate scoring chances in bunches. He can dangle in open ice with the best of them, and can make a highlight happen at any moment. Mittelstadt sees the ice well, often executing on high-difficulty feeds and being a primary starting point of offense. His skating isn't as dynamic as his hands, but he skates well and has a separation gear in his feet. He isn't as great off the puck; despite a strong frame, he loses more battles than he should. He is committed to the University of Minnesota.

98. Cliff Pu, RW, Buffalo Sabres
DOB: 6/03/98 | Ht: 6' 2" | Wt: 192
2016-17 stats, London (OHL): 63 GP | 35 G | 51 A
Projected 2017-18 team: London (OHL)

Cliff Pu came out of the gates flying this season but cooled down in the second half. All in all, he had an impressive breakout campaign for London, serving as their No. 1 center. He's a great skater with good puck skills and IQ. He doesn't make dominant offensive plays, but he puts the puck in good spots and can create chances from the perimeter. On top of that, he's a reliable defensive player and a shorthanded scoring threat.

100. Rasmus Asplund, C, Buffalo Sabres
DOB: 12/03/97 | Ht: 5' 11" | Wt: 183
2016-17 stats, Farjestad (SHL): 39 GP | 6 G | 13 A
Projected 2017-18 team: Farjestad (SHL)

Rasmus Asplund doesn't wow you on a given shift, but upon careful observation, you see a smart all-around forward who can make plays and be a positive difference-maker every shift. His best trait is his IQ, particularly his vision, as he can make quick reads on the power play. He's not exceptionally quick for a player his size, but he skates fine and competes well at both ends.

The rest:

Brendan Guhle, Buffalo Sabres

Goalies:

18. Ukko-Pekka Luukonen, Buffalo Sabres

- jdfitz77


thx, fitz...i'm not an insider...and btw, mittlestadt has a helluva shot
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Aug 17 @ 12:32 PM ET
we had fewer attempts on goal factoring in score changes (eg. down by one up by one etc.)
- Sabresfan-365

% of attempts on goal though? Not totals.

It's possible that we had more attempts post Nov., but let up even more due to the D.

I wonder how our goalies Sv% changed, if at all
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Aug 17 @ 12:33 PM ET
Pretty decent imo

Notable that Bailey isn't on there,
unless they consider him "graduated" bc of games played last year

I think most of us would have Guhle 3rd on our top10 list
And I think Fitzgerald is too high...
Personally, I think Borgen should be ahead of him

Pretty good overall though
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Aug 17 @ 12:33 PM ET
Deploying the forwards to create scoring chances while conceding chances against makes more sense imo. Our d-men would turn average plays into absolute flustercucks. May as well let the forwards try to get another goal to cover up the inevitable collapse. Every time we collapsed in our zone it turned into a shooting gallery
- jcragcrumple



it made more sense for team development to do this. bylsma was trying to keep his job. He felt this was the best way to cover up the deep flaws of this team. Its what worries me regarding lehner.
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Aug 17 @ 12:34 PM ET
thx, fitz...i'm not an insider...and btw, mittlestadt has a helluva shot
- Michael Pachla



No worries
I'm anxious to see him play
Minnesota will be televised this year a decent amount
Espn has some games & the Big10 network as well

I'll try to keep everyone updated
Michael Pachla
Buffalo Sabres
Location: solid!!!
Joined: 09.05.2007

Aug 17 @ 12:36 PM ET
Today @ 10:38 AM ET
Here is what they have as the top 10 per team. Again.. Buffalo only.

http://www.espn.com/nhl/i...luding-2017-18-impact#BUF

Buffalo Sabres


Pipeline rank: 11
Prospects in top 100, top 10 goalies: 4
2017 NHL draft grade: B


PLAYER, POSITION,
OVERALL RANK DOB HT. WT. 2017-18
TEAM
1. Alexander Nylander RW (7) 3/02/98 6' 1" 181 Rochester (AHL)
2. Casey Mittelstadt C (10) 11/22/98 6' 0.75" 201 Minnesota (Big Ten)
3. Cliff Pu RW (98) 6/03/98 6' 2" 192 London (OHL)
4. Rasmus Asplund C (100) 12/03/97 5' 11" 183 Farjestad (SHL)
5. Brendan Guhle D (HM) 7/29/97 6' 3" 192 Rochester (AHL)
6. Casey Fitzgerald D (N/A) 2/25/97 5' 11" 187 Boston College (Hockey East)
7. Viktor Antipin D (N/A) 12/06/92 5' 11" 179 Buffalo (NHL)
8. Nick Baptiste RW (N/A) 8/04/95 6' 1" 205 Buffalo (NHL)
9. Marcus Davidsson C (N/A) 11/18/98 6' 0" 191 Djurgarden (SHL)
10. Ukko-Pekka Luukonen G (G18) 3/09/99 6' 4" 196 HPK (Liiga)
Team overview: The Sabres have picked in the top 10 for two straight drafts, bringing in a pair of quality prospects in Alexander Nylander and Casey Mittelstadt. Later picks like Cliff Pu, Rasmus Asplund and Brendan Guhle also had strong 2016-17 seasons. The system is a little thin after the top names, with their AHL affiliate lacking in potential contributors.

Prospects outside top 100, top 10 goalies: Buffalo is high on Brendan Guhle. I'm not as enthusiastic about him, but I see things to like. He's a fantastic skater, particularly for his size, who can lead an attack well and close his gaps efficiently. I worry that his offensive skills aren't as developed; while he's fine handling the puck, he can be rather ordinary, moving it with his vision rather than his feet.

After a successful few years in the KHL, including being named a first-team All-Star and a leading scorer in last season's playoffs, Antipin looks ready to be a useful NHL player. He's a skilled puck-mover with good mobility. He's small and doesn't play a physical game, but his defense is passable given his gap control and reads.

Nick Baptiste had a solid second pro season. He's a good skater who plays a simple yet effective game. He's not a pure dangler, but he's smart enough to go to the right spots to get his scoring chances.

Scouts I talk to overseas have one common description of Marcus Davidsson: smart. He's a versatile player who can play center or the wing effectively and play a role on both special teams. Davidsson skates at an above-average level, sometimes flashing at a higher level. He can make some offensive plays, works hard to win pucks and projects to have value defensively as a pro.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is a physically towering netminder, and he takes away a lot of net before we even get into his skill set. He's not a super-athletic goalie but rather gets his stops by taking away space, being economical with his movements and reading the play well. He can get across the crease when he needs to, with solid power from his legs, and can make the occasional highlight-reel type of play.

I'm losing patience on Hudson Fasching (No. 11). I see a big man with decent tools and the ability to make plays at both ends, but it just seems like he's never going to develop the offensive instincts to be an important player at the NHL level.

Noteworthy prospect: Casey Fitzgerald is a great skater who can make standout offensive plays. I've always been troubled by his defensive coverage and risk management, but he's at least shown some progress on both fronts. In the end, he's still a work in progress.

2017-18 impact: The Sabres' system isn't ready to graduate too many players, though KHL import Antipin will be an NHL regular and potentially useful on Buffalo's power play. Guhle should get a long look at camp but could probably use some AHL time. Baptiste and Fasching could also contend for a depth role.

- jdfitz77


interesting, no mention of will borgen
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Aug 17 @ 12:36 PM ET
it made more sense for team development to do this. bylsma was trying to keep his job. He felt this was the best way to cover up the deep flaws of this team. Its what worries me regarding lehner.
- Sabresfan-365



Makes sense
Lehner's numbers definitely weren't as good in the 2nd half when we "opened it up" with Jack & others healthy
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Aug 17 @ 12:39 PM ET
% of attempts on goal though? Not totals.

It's possible that we had more attempts post Nov., but let up even more due to the D.

I wonder how our goalies Sv% changed, if at all

- sbroads24


ill work on finding totals but for goalie sv%

lehner during eichels absence: 92.19 adjusted save percentage

Nilsson during eichels absence: 96.08 adjusted save percentage


Lehner with eichel back: 91.59

Nilsson with eichel back: 92.84
Michael Pachla
Buffalo Sabres
Location: solid!!!
Joined: 09.05.2007

Aug 17 @ 12:42 PM ET
Makes sense
Lehner's numbers definitely weren't as good in the 2nd half when we "opened it up" with Jack & others healthy

- jdfitz77


here's lehners month by month stat-line:

--October: 2-2-1; 2.61 GAA; .913 Sv%; 0 shutouts
--November: 5-7-3; 2.40; .921; 0
--December: 8-12-5; 2.51; .921; 0
--January: 12-13-5; 2.64; .918; 0
--February: 17-18-7; 2.63; .922; 2
--March: 22-23-8; 2.63; .922; 2
--Final: 23-26-8; 2.68; .920; 2


edit:
He played four games in April, went 1-3-0 and allowed 11 goals on 100 shots for a .890 sv%
jdfitz77
Buffalo Sabres
Location: buffalo, NY
Joined: 05.21.2007

Aug 17 @ 12:43 PM ET
interesting, no mention of will borgen
- Michael Pachla



My top 10 would be

1 Nylander
2 Mittelstadt
3 Guhle
4 Baptiste
5 Bailey
6 Pu
7 Borgen
8 Asplund
9 Fasching
10 Luukkonnen
GERBE!!!75PTS
San Jose Sharks
Location: Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser." - Jack Eichel-, CA
Joined: 02.11.2009

Aug 17 @ 12:44 PM ET
Jicama
- Der Kaiser

Lol what
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Aug 17 @ 12:44 PM ET
ill work on finding totals but for goalie sv%

lehner during eichels absence: 92.19 adjusted save percentage

Nilsson during eichels absence: 96.08 adjusted save percentage


Lehner with eichel back: 91.59

Nilsson with eichel back: 92.84

- Sabresfan-365

So combined was definitely higher pre Eichel return

Good to see Lehner didn't have a huge drop off
Sabresfan-365
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Lockport, NY
Joined: 12.09.2012

Aug 17 @ 12:45 PM ET
So combined was definitely higher pre Eichel return

Good to see Lehner didn't have a huge drop off

- sbroads24



early indications would suggest this is because bylsma didnt really change all that much.

The first 20-25 games of this upcoming season will be more revealing.
Michael Pachla
Buffalo Sabres
Location: solid!!!
Joined: 09.05.2007

Aug 17 @ 12:46 PM ET
My top 10 would be

1 Nylander
2 Mittelstadt
3 Guhle
4 Baptiste
5 Bailey
6 Pu
7 Borgen
8 Asplund
9 Fasching
10 Luukkonnen

- jdfitz77


that's a good list
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