Right, as long as Malkin and Sid are healthy. Staal is Two headed monster insurance. Kessel isnt going to be worth a damn playing with Carter Rowney.

You dont have to agree with the trade but you have to see the value in Staal. PK, shutdown center, faceoffs (4th best in the league), Sid and Geno insurance, can elevate lesser wings, etc.
- YouMeAndDupuis9

This. Center > Winger.

Anyone who wants to trade Kessel for Staal while Toronto is footing a significant portion of Kessel's salary is not thinking clearly.

10th among RWs in the last 3 years at even strength
37th among all forwards in the last 3 years at even strength.
- j.boyd919

Is that per 60? He has played in every game over that 3 year span - most other players have not. So he's #10 out of 30 and #37 out of 90.

How many shutdown centers playing are there in the game? Fewer than 10. Bergeron, Kesler, Koivu, Kopitar, Toews, and, um, ...

Anyone who wants to trade Kessel for Staal while Toronto is footing a significant portion of Kessel's salary is not thinking clearly.
- powerhouse

The only relevant salary number is what the Pens are paying Kessel, which is more than Staal is making. Is Kessel overpaid? Is Staal underpaid?

The only relevant salary number is what the Pens are paying Kessel, which is more than Staal is making. Is Kessel overpaid? Is Staal underpaid?
- T-Train

Pretty moot point. 90% chance Carolina doesnt trade Staal and if they did, it would be a cost cutting move.

But, yeah, Staal making too much money and Kessel being a bargain is an exaggeration.

How is 5v5 GF/GA a useful stat given that there are 5 other teammates involved, including a goalie? Not to mention matchups, zone starts, etc. Hardly better than +/-. Are we to conclude that Kessel is a better defender than Staal?
- T-Train

Actually it's a much better stat than +/- because it doesn't factor in arbitrary things like PK/PP/EN.

I don't find matchups important because in my opinion (and many others) QoC evens out over an 82 gamer sample size. Matchups are really ONLY important in the playoffs over a consistent sample size (but Sully doesn't really match lines anyways. He generally just rolls them. Again, he's said that in interviews and it's evident on the ice/stat sheet.)

Zone starts are mostly meaningless because of course Kessel is going to get O-zone starts and Staal is going to get more D-zone starts. Kessel is better at offense then Staal and Staal is better at defense than Kessel. That's pretty easy to see.

The purpose of 5v5 goal differential is to show that Kessel (despite his 'defensive deficiencies') puts up 15 more goals than his opposition at even strength over the course of a season, where Jordan Stall puts up 2 more goals than is opposition, despite being a "shut down" center, it's not really shutting down when you nearly break even on goals.

EDIT: Also Zone starts only count as roughly 40-50% given a lot of changes happen on the fly.

Right, as long as Malkin and Sid are healthy. Staal is Two headed monster insurance. Kessel isnt going to be worth a damn playing with Carter Rowney.

You dont have to agree with the trade but you have to see the value in Staal. PK, shutdown center, faceoffs (4th best in the league), Sid and Geno insurance, can elevate lesser wings, etc.
- YouMeAndDupuis9

I do see the appeal for Staal but not at the expense of Kessel. It's funny that you say that he's not going to do anything without Sid/Geno... but people tend to forget he played for the Leafs for most of his career and put up points with Tyler Bozak...

This. Center > Winger.
- T-Train

Yes if they are equal in ability. But they aren't.

3C is not more valuable than a top winger in the EC.

Making moves as "insurance" is bad player management. If you're moving Kessel for Geno/Sid insurance, what happens when Guentzel who needs to put on muscle, but doesn't, goes out for extended time... now you've got Rust playing on the top line with Sid and Horny playing with Geno? Now you're RW is (frank)ed. And Staal gets to play with who? Scott Wilson? Kuhnackl? Ryan (frank)ing Reaves?

Center is not ALWAYS more valuable than a Winger.

This. Center > Winger.
- T-Train

I largely agree with this. In the abstract, I probably would swap Kessel for Staal. We have some high level prospects that are pretty close to being ready at RW.

That being said, I see no way we trade Kessel and get Staal. Either in the same deal or different deals. Kessel is still pretty great even though you don't always get a committed player every night.

Is that per 60? He has played in every game over that 3 year span - most other players have not. So he's #10 out of 30 and #37 out of 90.

How many shutdown centers playing are there in the game? Fewer than 10. Bergeron, Kesler, Koivu, Kopitar, Toews, and, um, ...
- T-Train

Honest question.. how do you rate "shutdown centers?" What stats do you look at to know if they've done their job efficiently? I'm not even being a Richard, I'm asking an honest question.

In my opinion, the goal is to outscore the other team. I don't really care if its 3-2 or 7-5. If a team puts up significantly more points with a certain player over the opposition, that is the player I want on my team. Breaking even for 6m just doesn't even worth it. And Playing the PK doesn't happen nearly enough to make up for the difference IMO.

Yes if they are equal in ability. But they aren't.

3C is not more valuable than a top winger in the EC.

Making moves as "insurance" is bad player management. If you're moving Kessel for Geno/Sid insurance, what happens when Guentzel who needs to put on muscle, but doesn't, goes out for extended time... now you've got Rust playing on the top line with Sid and Horny playing with Geno? Now you're RW is (frank)ed. And Staal gets to play with who? Scott Wilson? Kuhnackl? Ryan (frank)ing Reaves?

Center is not ALWAYS more valuable than a Winger.
- j.boyd919

I think it's largely assumed centers are better because the best players get out there. Certain wings can make lines work the same way a center does like ovechkin or Kane.

I think it's largely assumed centers are better because the best players get out there. Certain wings can make lines work the same way a center does like ovechkin or Kane.
- sditulli

If we're talking top tier center? Like Sid/Geno/McDavid/Seguin/Backstrom/etc... then... yes.. they are more valuable than Kessel. But Jordan Staal isn't even a top 30 center in the league. Maybe not even top 50. Kessel is still a top 10, top 20 RW at the most.

I do see the appeal for Staal but not at the expense of Kessel. It's funny that you say that he's not going to do anything without Sid/Geno... but people tend to forget he played for the Leafs for most of his career and put up points with Tyler Bozak...
- j.boyd919

Come on now, I said Carter Rowney.... and Bozak is a pretty underrated player

Yes if they are equal in ability. But they aren't.

3C is not more valuable than a top winger in the EC.


- j.boyd919

Thats pretty selective statement because right now Kessel is a 3rd line RW and Staal is a 1st line center lol.

Thats pretty selective statement because right now Kessel is a 3rd line RW and Staal is a 1st line center lol.
- YouMeAndDupuis9

In the entire NHL, Production wise Kessel is a 10 RW, and Staal is a top 60 C, so it's not selective at all.

In the entire NHL, Production wise Kessel is a 10 RW, and Staal is a top 60 C, so it's not selective at all.
- j.boyd919

Not even strength.

Last season:

Kessel 58th in the league with 39 even strength points
Staal had 36 even strength points

If we're talking top tier center? Like Sid/Geno/McDavid/Seguin/Backstrom/etc... then... yes.. they are more valuable than Kessel. But Jordan Staal isn't even a top 30 center in the league. Maybe not even top 50. Kessel is still a top 10, top 20 RW at the most.
- j.boyd919

Ma nigga.

Not even strength.

Last season:

Kessel 58th in the league with 39 even strength points
Staal had 36 even strength points
- YouMeAndDupuis9

And at even strength Kessel's lines are a +15 goal differential while Staal's are a +2.

Honest question.. how do you rate "shutdown centers?" What stats do you look at to know if they've done their job efficiently? I'm not even being a Richard, I'm asking an honest question.

In my opinion, the goal is to outscore the other team. I don't really care if its 3-2 or 7-5. If a team puts up significantly more points with a certain player over the opposition, that is the player I want on my team. Breaking even for 6m just doesn't even worth it. And Playing the PK doesn't happen nearly enough to make up for the difference IMO.
- j.boyd919

No problem, valid question. There are shot suppression stats, which Staal ranks about as highly as one can. Beyond stats, you can look at the Selke Award finalists and deduce that those are the generally agreed upon best defensive forwards in the game. Then you can just watch hours and hours of hockey and notice when a player is stuck to the best player on the opposition and not letting him do anything.

Yes, there is no clear delineation between a "shutdown center" and a non-shutdown center and there are no shutdown stats, per se. For the purposes of this discussion, it is generally accepted that Staal is a shutdown center with a defensive prowess that few other centers can match. There is nothing to disprove this assertion. 5v5 GA is irrelevant. You can try to say that Staal is not an elite defensive center, but you will be pretty lonely on that island.

This deal will likely never happen, but I would do it, not without hesitation, though. I can understand the argument against. I think things like defense, penalty killing, and winning faceoffs are extremely important, especially for this current Pens team. Throw in the lack of center depth and health issues with the two top centers, and I think it makes a lot of sense from the Pens perspective.

I get the whole "score more than the other team" and try to assemble the most firepower possible, regardless of any other considerations. I don't agree with this approach.

Like I said before, I will be perfectly happy with a poor man's Staal and keeping Kessel.

And at even strength Kessel's lines are a +15 goal differential while Staal's are a +2.
- j.boyd919

Kessel plays on a two-time Stanley Cup champion team and Staal plays on a cellar dweller team. There are 5 other players on each player's respective "line" (including dmen and goalie), not to mention different opposition lines, so how much stock do you want to put in this stat? Put garbage on Crosby's wings, garbage on defense and in goal behind Crosby, and watch Crosby's 5v5 GF/GA differential drop like a rock. Again, I think it's almost as useless as +/-.

I can't even tell you who Staal's linemates have been, but I know they aren't very good. Then you had Ron f'ing Hainsey and a bunch of rookies on defense and Cam Ward in goal. Put any center in that position and tell me how good his 5v5 GF/GA stats are going to look.

I'm not a stat devotee like you are, but I will pay attention to and put stock into a lot of stats before I give this one any credence. There are just too many other variables, namely a lot of different players, which have a direct affect on this number. There are so many scenarios that would turn this stat on its head.

Honest question.. how do you rate "shutdown centers?" What stats do you look at to know if they've done their job efficiently? I'm not even being a Richard, I'm asking an honest question.

In my opinion, the goal is to outscore the other team. I don't really care if its 3-2 or 7-5. If a team puts up significantly more points with a certain player over the opposition, that is the player I want on my team. Breaking even for 6m just doesn't even worth it. And Playing the PK doesn't happen nearly enough to make up for the difference IMO.
- j.boyd919

I think that while advanced stats have come a long way in helping us evaluate players, there are still alot of aspects we can't measure yet. I'd say that case for quality of competition and linemate. I've found that anything that is difficult to quantify tends to get thrown out.

As far as shutdown centers, I guess the best way to evaluate them is against each other although that doesn't tame into account teammates. It obviously helps you prevent goals if your goalie is Carey Price instead of Cam Ward, but that doesn't factor into the stats. So you can take what the stats tell you as a starting point, but you have to think a little afterwards.

I'd also.say with QoC that while all teams don't use a shutdown center, most have a top defense pairing that goes against tbe other teams best lines. That's why I'd never do a straight comparison of Crosby and Malkin because Malkin receives more favorable matchups then Crosby and really most elite centers. For Kessel, he is in the rare situation where he is among the game's best wings and playing with one of the game's best centers yet doesn't play against the top defense pairs. I can't imagine there are 5 players who fit that description. I'd like to see a stat similar to a handicap for quality of competition, but honestly wouldn't know where to start.

And at even strength Kessel's lines are a +15 goal differential while Staal's are a +2.
- j.boyd919

Are those numbers correct? I found Kessel was a +2 and Staal was a -1 at even strength.....I believe it was hockey reference I got numbers from

Are those numbers correct? I found Kessel was a +2 and Staal was a -1 at even strength.....I believe it was hockey reference I got numbers from
- willi

Whoops, that was at 5v5, not even strength. My bad.

Per Naturalstattrick.com Kessel is a +7 at ES and Staal is a -2 last season.
Also the Pens (229) have just one less goal against than the Canes (230) in the reg season.

I think that while advanced stats have come a long way in helping us evaluate players, there are still alot of aspects we can't measure yet. I'd say that case for quality of competition and linemate. I've found that anything that is difficult to quantify tends to get thrown out.

As far as shutdown centers, I guess the best way to evaluate them is against each other although that doesn't tame into account teammates. It obviously helps you prevent goals if your goalie is Carey Price instead of Cam Ward, but that doesn't factor into the stats. So you can take what the stats tell you as a starting point, but you have to think a little afterwards.

I'd also.say with QoC that while all teams don't use a shutdown center, most have a top defense pairing that goes against tbe other teams best lines. That's why I'd never do a straight comparison of Crosby and Malkin because Malkin receives more favorable matchups then Crosby and really most elite centers. For Kessel, he is in the rare situation where he is among the game's best wings and playing with one of the game's best centers yet doesn't play against the top defense pairs. I can't imagine there are 5 players who fit that description. I'd like to see a stat similar to a handicap for quality of competition, but honestly wouldn't know where to start.
- Tojo.

I believe with the bolded that is true with every stat I post. Advanced stats are bad, they're just numbers... it's how you (or anyone) analyze them and come to a conclusion that can be good or bad, strong or weak, etc.

I don't post them because I believe they are the end all be all. I post them because they are more data than just G, A, PTS to give a glimpse of a player in evaluation. I look at a LOT of numbers to come to any conclusion.

In regards to your last paragraph... I personally don't believe QoC is a "thing" because it tends to even out over 82 games. I've used Sid and Geno as an example here.. I have their top TOI opposition over last season at 5v5...



Do either one of them REALLY stick out as having played better competition? I think when you look at the numbers vs. players... it's VERY similar, not enough to make a difference in my opinion. Throughout a game, Sid and Geno are going to see all 3 pairings, not JUST the 1st pairing. Too many changes and variables to think that they ONLY see top pair D or not, etc.

https://hockey-graphs.com...ot-much-its-all-relative/

https://hockey-graphs.com...to-maple-leafs-d-edition/

Here's a couple articles on Qoc if you're interested. I've posted them before.

Kessel plays on a two-time Stanley Cup champion team and Staal plays on a cellar dweller team. There are 5 other players on each player's respective "line" (including dmen and goalie), not to mention different opposition lines, so how much stock do you want to put in this stat? Put garbage on Crosby's wings, garbage on defense and in goal behind Crosby, and watch Crosby's 5v5 GF/GA differential drop like a rock. Again, I think it's almost as useless as +/-.

I can't even tell you who Staal's linemates have been, but I know they aren't very good. Then you had Ron f'ing Hainsey and a bunch of rookies on defense and Cam Ward in goal. Put any center in that position and tell me how good his 5v5 GF/GA stats are going to look.

I'm not a stat devotee like you are, but I will pay attention to and put stock into a lot of stats before I give this one any credence. There are just too many other variables, namely a lot of different players, which have a direct affect on this number. There are so many scenarios that would turn this stat on its head.
- T-Train

Naturalstattrick.com has what you're asking for.

Aho put up 49 points
Lindholm put up 45 points

They're both pretty good.

Justin Faulk and Jaccob Slavin are no slouches either...

You think there are scenarios that turn stats on its head. There isn't. They are numbers. That's it. Can't really prove numbers wrong. The only thing you can change is how you value them. I simply post numbers. The numbers themselves aren't flawed. How you or I perceive them might be.