Staal had 49 points twice with Cooke and Kennedy.

Somebody would pick up Kessel's PP time and probably gets about 20 points there. The gap between Staal and Kessel at even strength isn't great, it's the PP numbers that really separate them. The Pens would be taking a risk that Guentzel, Sprong, or Sheary could pick up enough of that slack on the PP to

I also think Sprong or whomever plays with Malkin gets at least 40 (probably Hornqvist to start the year who still scored at a 50 point pace last year). Since I see Kessel closer to the 60ish point guy he was the previous 2 years I don't think they would lose much offense. You'd alo be able to use Staal against top lines and be able to use Crosby in more favorable matchups. So as a theory I could see it working out well.

You're also saving not only 800k in salary difference, but the Pens can fill the wing cheaply intermally verses a 3C in a trade prbably costing a few million. That's emough to add a little elsewhere.

But while it might be the smart play, I don't really want to test a smart theory againdt a formula that has worked so well the last 2 years with Phil being such a huge playoff point scorer. Also don't see it making sense for Carolina.
- Tojo.

Yeah, I just don't agree. Phil was 5th in the league on the PP with 30 points, I don't think you can just put any RH player there and expect 20 points. Kessel's value on the PP is that teams have to respect his shot AND his underrated but top notch passing. The 2 full years before his 60 point seasons, he put up 80 points.. so there's that too. Also, I doubt Sprong/Staal/etc. are going to put up nearly a PPG in the playoffs like Kessel does too. Pens game hinges on putting up a lot of points and I don't see it as a smart move trading a top 5 winger in the eastern conf in regards to points and a top scorer in the playoffs 2 years in a row.

3C isn't THAT important that the Pens should be sacrificing so many points and consistent production for unknown (only unknown because they aren't on the Pens or in their system, not talking about prior production.) commodities. We know Kessel works, we know he puts up points, and we know he can pick up his play when it matters most, the playoffs. I see moving that as foolish.

Just playing devils advocate. At even strength, Kessel playing on a third line against 3rd pair D men vs Staal against top pair D men and the production gap isnt that big. Phil is averaging about 17 EV goals per year the last few years vs. Staals 13.

Plus Staal obviously does a lot more than produce. PK ace, shutdown forward, possession monster....flanked with good skilled players....its tantalizing.

It's not ludicrous. But ultimately, ya probably shouldnt mess with the current formula too much. Phil is a playoff beast. I would want to see more of a sample size from Guentzy, Sheary, Sprong, and ZAR before we trade away the Thrill.
- YouMeAndDupuis9

Quality of competition evens out over the course of an 82 game schedule so I don't find that argument to hold weight.

At 5v5:

Staal's most common D opps have been Morgan Reilly, Nikita Zaitsev, Ben Lovejoy, Calvin de Haan, Ian Cole, Seth Jones, Karl Alzner, etc...

Kessel's have been Radko Gudas, Brett Pesce, Marc Staal, Dan Girardi, Nick Holden, Nick Leddy, Mark Borowiecki, etc...

Out of that list I wouldn't say any of those guys except for Morgan Reilly (even then, some argue against him) are stand out top pairing Dmen. The quality of competition really isn't THAT different.


EDIT:

Kessel - All situations goal differential: 104 goals for, 54 against
Staal - All situations goal differential: 71 goals for, 60 against.

Yeah, I just don't agree. Phil was 5th in the league on the PP with 30 points, I don't think you can just put any RH player there and expect 20 points. Kessel's value on the PP is that teams have to respect his shot AND his underrated but top notch passing. The 2 full years before his 60 point seasons, he put up 80 points.. so there's that too. Also, I doubt Sprong/Staal/etc. are going to put up nearly a PPG in the playoffs like Kessel does too. Pens game hinges on putting up a lot of points and I don't see it as a smart move trading a top 5 winger in the eastern conf in regards to points and a top scorer in the playoffs 2 years in a row.

3C isn't THAT important that the Pens should be sacrificing so many points and consistent production for unknown (only unknown because they aren't on the Pens or in their system, not talking about prior production.) commodities. We know Kessel works, we know he puts up points, and we know he can pick up his play when it matters most, the playoffs. I see moving that as foolish.
- j.boyd919

The 9th ranked active playoff PPG leader. Why trade him?

The 9th ranked active playoff PPG leader. Why trade him?
- DeflatedPucks

Exactly. I'm not trading that. Not for a (frank)ing 3C lol

Quality of competition evens out over the course of an 82 game schedule so I don't find that argument to hold weight.

At 5v5:

Staal's most common D opps have been Morgan Reilly, Nikita Zaitsev, Ben Lovejoy, Calvin de Haan, Ian Cole, Seth Jones, Karl Alzner, etc...

Kessel's have been Radko Gudas, Brett Pesce, Marc Staal, Dan Girardi, Nick Holden, Nick Leddy, Mark Borowiecki, etc...

Out of that list I wouldn't say any of those guys except for Morgan Reilly (even then, some argue against him) are stand out top pairing Dmen. The quality of competition really isn't THAT different.


EDIT:

Kessel - All situations goal differential: 104 goals for, 54 against
Staal - All situations goal differential: 71 goals for, 60 against.
- j.boyd919

Fair enough. It all would depend on what our 3C options are. If we find another Bonino like player on a good contract without sacrificing Sprong or ZAR....that's the best course of action.

That combined with the fact that we still have a ton of firepower assures me the PP would still be ok without Phil. Overall PP numbers dont show a drastic correlation pre/post Phil. They were 3rd in the league last year on the PP but 16th in the league the year before that. Before Phil they were 10th in the league.

I still think its a pretty fair swap, they just bring different elements and a case could be made either way. I still lean towards keeping Phil, just an interesting convo.

Fair enough. It all would depend on what our 3C options are. If we find another Bonino like player on a good contract without sacrificing Sprong or ZAR....that's the best course of action.

That combined with the fact that we still have a ton of firepower assures me the PP would still be ok without Phil. Overall PP numbers dont show a drastic correlation pre/post Phil. They were 3rd in the league last year on the PP but 16th in the league the year before that. Before Phil they were 10th in the league.

I still think its a pretty fair swap, they just bring different elements and a case could be made either way. I still lean towards keeping Phil, just an interesting convo.
- YouMeAndDupuis9

Don't get me wrong I totally get the appeal for Staal, I just feel that with the way the Pens are currently constructed in Sully's system, Phil is more valuable to the Pens than Staal.

Don't get me wrong I totally get the appeal for Staal, I just feel that with the way the Pens are currently constructed in Sully's system, Phil is more valuable to the Pens than Staal.
- j.boyd919

Preach dog boy. Giving up an all-star caliber winger who is capable of delivering 65-75 pts and a couple of odd soundbites per year, who is a pp threat, whose game should age gracefully (with his beautiful passing) and who is still considered a threat (outside of BIG 2) regardless of what line he is on, is ludicrous unless the return is a much, much better younger centreman.

If anything, the Pens have shown that as long as Sid and Geno are still on skates, they can still win by committee for the rest of the spots down the middle.

I honestly don't get the appeal for Staal.

Preach dog boy. Giving up an all-star caliber winger who is capable of delivering 65-75 pts and a couple of odd soundbites per year, who is a pp threat, whose game should age gracefully (with his beautiful passing) and who is still considered a threat (outside of BIG 2) regardless of what line he is on, is ludicrous unless the return is a much, much better younger centreman.

If anything, the Pens have shown that as long as Sid and Geno are still on skates, they can still win by committee for the rest of the spots down the middle.

I honestly don't get the appeal for Staal.
- DeflatedPucks

I preach enough around here, makes me feel like the Westboro Baptist Church.

Phil Kessel has been one of the top even strength point producers of the past decade. The gap between Kessel and Staal's even strength production is great. At only .8 mil extra, Kessel is a lot more valuable than Staal. I love Staal and wish we could get him back somehow, but this would be a bad trade for Pit.
- Victoro311

Kessel if the past 3 years isn't the same ES point producer he was in his best years. In his best years, he got about 60 ES PPG which he did exactly in 2014. His last 3 years: 36, 42, 40. Staal's last 2 years (was hurt 3 years ago) he had 36 ES points both years. So there isn't a big difference.

On the PP, big difference. That's why Kessel gets 20+ points more.

Kessel - All situations goal differential: 104 goals for, 54 against
Staal - All situations goal differential: 71 goals for, 60 against.
- j.boyd919

Are you measuring a guy who is a PP specialist v a guy who is a PK specialist in all situations? Of course the PP guy look better. The fact that a 40ish point scorer who goes against top lines and top PPs is positive is a huge accomplishment.

Kessel if the past 3 years isn't the same ES point producer he was in his best years. In his best years, he got about 60 ES PPG which he did exactly in 2014. His last 3 years: 36, 42, 40. Staal's last 2 years (was hurt 3 years ago) he had 36 ES points both years. So there isn't a big difference.

On the PP, big difference. That's why Kessel gets 20+ points more.
- Tojo.

10th among RWs in the last 3 years at even strength
37th among all forwards in the last 3 years at even strength.

Are you measuring a guy who is a PP specialist v a guy who is a PK specialist in all situations? Of course the PP guy look better. The fact that a 40ish point scorer who goes against top lines and top PPs is positive is a huge accomplishment.
- Tojo.

At 5v5 last season:

Kessel - 52 goals for, 37 goals against
Staal - 44 goals for, 42 goals against


that more what you're lookin for?

Are you measuring a guy who is a PP specialist v a guy who is a PK specialist in all situations? Of course the PP guy look better. The fact that a 40ish point scorer who goes against top lines and top PPs is positive is a huge accomplishment.
- Tojo.

Also, Sully doesn't do much line matching. He's said that in interviews and it's evident on the ice. He just rolls lines more often than not.

Yeah, I just don't agree. Phil was 5th in the league on the PP with 30 points, I don't think you can just put any RH player there and expect 20 points. Kessel's value on the PP is that teams have to respect his shot AND his underrated but top notch passing. The 2 full years before his 60 point seasons, he put up 80 points.. so there's that too. Also, I doubt Sprong/Staal/etc. are going to put up nearly a PPG in the playoffs like Kessel does too. Pens game hinges on putting up a lot of points and I don't see it as a smart move trading a top 5 winger in the eastern conf in regards to points and a top scorer in the playoffs 2 years in a row.

3C isn't THAT important that the Pens should be sacrificing so many points and consistent production for unknown (only unknown because they aren't on the Pens or in their system, not talking about prior production.) commodities. We know Kessel works, we know he puts up points, and we know he can pick up his play when it matters most, the playoffs. I see moving that as foolish.
- j.boyd919

We actually do agree because I said I wouldn't make the trade. I just see the logic behind it.

Just about anyone on a top PP can get 15. Playing on ours, I'd hope one of those 3 are capable of 20, but it's not a guarantee.

I also doubt anyone else can repeat Kessel's playoff numbers, which is what I said when I said why I wouldn't do this trade.

I however don't expect Phil to get 70 points or 30 PP points again this season. I certainly don't see him at 80 again. Just think he's lost a bit as most scorers his age do. Still a very good player, but he's lost sime of that top end speed that at one point had him among the game's best.

He'll outscore Staal by 20-25 points, but a good chunk of that would be made up by another guy getting his PP minutes. But again, I have no stomache for messing with what's working right now.

We actually do agree because I said I wouldn't make the trade. I just see the logic behind it.

Just about anyone on a top PP can get 15. Playing on ours, I'd hope one of those 3 are capable of 20, but it's not a guarantee.

I also doubt anyone else can repeat Kessel's playoff numbers, which is what I said when I said why I wouldn't do this trade.

I however don't expect Phil to get 70 points or 30 PP points again this season. I certainly don't see him at 80 again. Just think he's lost a bit as most scorers his age do. Still a very good player, but he's lost sime of that top end speed that at one point had him among the game's best.

He'll outscore Staal by 20-25 points, but a good chunk of that would be made up by another guy getting his PP minutes. But again, I have no stomache for messing with what's working right now.
- Tojo.

Oh I was just disagreeing with the top 2 paragraphs lol sorry should have bolded it.

But Kessel did have a significantly better goal differential at 5v5 than Staal.

At 5v5 last season:

Kessel - 52 goals for, 37 goals against
Staal - 44 goals for, 42 goals against


that more what you're lookin for?
- j.boyd919

That's a much better stat for this discussion, thanks. Much closer as well. And Staal I'm fairly certain plays against better scoring line.

Oh I was just disagreeing with the top 2 paragraphs lol sorry should have bolded it.

But Kessel did have a significantly better goal differential at 5v5 than Staal.
- j.boyd919

Ok. Staal just brings a different dynamic that I think would change alot of things, and I do think the Pens have some wings who might be able to step into Phil's minutes and replace some of what we'd lose offensively. But we just won back to back Cups and Phil was a huge part, so I'm not changing what's working.

That's a much better stat for this discussion, thanks. Much closer as well. And Staal I'm fairly certain plays against better scoring line.
- Tojo.

Eh, that's a whole different discussion. I personally believe QoC evens out over an 82 game sample size, so I don't find the talent either played against to be THAT significant in a discussion like that.

Some top TOI of forwards each faced

Staal - Lee, Bailey, Tavares, Sid, Saad, Wennberg, Schenn, Couturier, Gallagher, Voracek

Kessel - Couturier, Zuccarello, Voracek, Rask, Wennberg, Schenn, Zacha, Stepan, Matthews, Saad


They pretty much play similar QoC.

Ok. Staal just brings a different dynamic that I think would change alot of things, and I do think the Pens have some wings who might be able to step into Phil's minutes and replace some of what we'd lose offensively. But we just won back to back Cups and Phil was a huge part, so I'm not changing what's working.
- Tojo.

yeah no worries, I get it. I do think he brings a different dynamic for sure. It would give Sully flexibility to try and deploy different lines vs different lines, but I haven't really seen his desire to do that in his tenure.

I think the lack of 3-peat talk is disgusting! Take that you sunburnt Australian POS.
- DeflatedPucks

I'm currently in the throes of a cold winter with dark mornings & early sunsets, so in the words of Russell Peters - "be a man", & in the words of an old barman in the south of France - "fa koff"!

Eh, that's a whole different discussion. I personally believe QoC evens out over an 82 game sample size, so I don't find the talent either played against to be THAT significant in a discussion like that.

Some top TOI of forwards each faced

Staal - Lee, Bailey, Tavares, Sid, Saad, Wennberg, Schenn, Couturier, Gallagher, Voracek

Kessel - Couturier, Zuccarello, Voracek, Rask, Wennberg, Schenn, Zacha, Stepan, Matthews, Saad


They pretty much play similar QoC.
- j.boyd919

Staal plays against GOAT Bailey. Edge: Staal.

Staal plays against GOAT Bailey. Edge: Staal.
- Victoro311

I dunno... Kessel played against Girardi...

Preach dog boy. Giving up an all-star caliber winger who is capable of delivering 65-75 pts and a couple of odd soundbites per year, who is a pp threat, whose game should age gracefully (with his beautiful passing) and who is still considered a threat (outside of BIG 2) regardless of what line he is on, is ludicrous unless the return is a much, much better younger centreman.

If anything, the Pens have shown that as long as Sid and Geno are still on skates, they can still win by committee for the rest of the spots down the middle.

I honestly don't get the appeal for Staal.
- DeflatedPucks

Right, as long as Malkin and Sid are healthy. Staal is Two headed monster insurance. Kessel isnt going to be worth a damn playing with Carter Rowney.

You dont have to agree with the trade but you have to see the value in Staal. PK, shutdown center, faceoffs (4th best in the league), Sid and Geno insurance, can elevate lesser wings, etc.

Staal plays against GOAT Bailey. Edge: Staal.
- Victoro311

What about most common linemates for each? I cant pretend to know much about Carolinas line combos.

At 5v5 last season:

Kessel - 52 goals for, 37 goals against
Staal - 44 goals for, 42 goals against


that more what you're lookin for?
- j.boyd919

How is 5v5 GF/GA a useful stat given that there are 5 other teammates involved, including a goalie? Not to mention matchups, zone starts, etc. Hardly better than +/-. Are we to conclude that Kessel is a better defender than Staal?