I'd be more worried if he isn't signed for a similar contract. That'd be an overpay. As good as Provorov is, you don't want to overpay for the true value he brings. People are so happy he's here they want to give him the world, but league precedent says he's not close to an $8 mil d-man. And he likely never becomes one on his next big contract.

He is a Slavin/Jones/Lindholm type d-man, and that's the contract type he should get (I'd prefer Slavin's term). He will not be an annual 50+ point everything d-man on this team. He shouldn't be paid to be such. We want to keep all these kids together; not overpaying is an important step.
- Mononoke

Not sure he will make the jump from year one to year two like Doughty did but I think Doughty is a comparable to Provorov. Doughty went from his ELC to 7 million AAV.

I can see Provorov producing more offense this season. It would not suprise me to see him around 7 million over 8 years.

Maybe I'm being daft, but I'm still confused what this all means
- Mononoke

Not sure he will make the jump from year one to year two like Doughty did but I think Doughty is a comparable to Provorov. Doughty went from his ELC to 7 million AAV.

I can see Provorov producing more offense this season. It would not suprise me to see him around 7 million over 8 years.
- J35Bacher

I can see a decent size jump too. Last year he had 34 points, and only 6 on the pp. With the additions of Patrick and Lindblom and another's years experience for Konecny, they should be a better offensive team at ES and be able to ice a better 2nd pp unit as well. I don't think it would be a reach to expect his ES output to increase from 28 to 35-38 points and his pp point total to increase to 10-12. Throw in a possible point or 2 shorthanded and that would have Provorov finishing with somewhere between 45 and 52 points.

If he puts up numbers like that the next 2 years while playing on the top pair and top Pk unit and averages near 25 minutes of ice time, he could absolutely see an 8 year deal with an aav somewhere around 7 million.

Yeah, that CSN article was talking about him being a 50+ guy soon. I just don't see it. He's probably not better than the 3rd best option for the PP in the near future, maybe 4th. I don't see him getting past PP2, unless they force it to give him points and put someone like Ghost/Sanheim in a lesser PP role they don't deserve. He's probably better off in a Vlasic/Lindholm/Slavin/Jones role on THIS team. That's a Flyers luxury, not an indictment of him league wide.

Fact is his scoring might be capped at ~35. As valuable as he is and can be otherwise, that should cap his $$ too. If he's not on PP1, he will never be a true "top 10" Norris guy. Even $8 mil sounds ridiculous to me. I look at that Slavin contract (maybe Seth Jones), and that's what I want him signed to next summer, or thereabouts.
- Mononoke

Semantics, but I think that 35 is slightly low, maybe around 40 is the cap. He shot at 3.7%, which is slightly below average for a D-man. He also only had 5 PP points. If he's on PP2, which I expect him to be, as it gets better (hopefully) his points should go up as well.

I do agree with your overall point, however.

Can training camp get here please..been watching the Peter Forsberg highlight video for weeks now.

Can training camp get here please..been watching the Peter Forsberg highlight video for weeks now.
- opeth_pa

Not sure he will make the jump from year one to year two like Doughty did but I think Doughty is a comparable to Provorov. Doughty went from his ELC to 7 million AAV.

I can see Provorov producing more offense this season. It would not suprise me to see him around 7 million over 8 years.
- J35Bacher

Yeah, that was a huge jump. He went from 27 to 59 points from year 1 to year 2. He had a huge year in terms of PP scoring too, as 31 of those 59 points were scored on the PP.

Provy is not going to play enough (barring injury) on the PP to score close to that.

Yeah, that was a huge jump. He went from 27 to 59 points from year 1 to year 2. He had a huge year in terms of PP scoring too, as 31 of those 59 points were scored on the PP.

Provy is not going to play enough (barring injury) on the PP to score close to that.
- VladDrag

I'll wait to see what the new coach has planned for the PP. I could see a little change with Gostisbehere on the half wall where Voracek was and Provorov at the top of the umbrella. Gostisbehere seemed to get a little more room and was able to crank some shots from there with the goalie moving side to side.

Yeah, that was a huge jump. He went from 27 to 59 points from year 1 to year 2. He had a huge year in terms of PP scoring too, as 31 of those 59 points were scored on the PP.

Provy is not going to play enough (barring injury) on the PP to score close to that.
- VladDrag

I think he'll see a healthy dose of PP time. Would not be surprised to see a 3F/2D approach to the top unit.

Ghost is so good at sliding down that you could have Simmonds moving from slot/net front where you might not need a full time slot player (Schenn/Hartnell).

I am optimistic they will be able to keep the Provy deal under 6.5

I think he'll see a healthy dose of PP time. Would not be surprised to see a 3F/2D approach to the top unit.

Ghost is so good at sliding down that you could have Simmonds moving from slot/net front where you might not need a full time slot player (Schenn/Hartnell).
- jmatchett383

I wonder if you'll see a little more movement this year. Seems like a lot of teams have more movement and not as stagnate.

If Ghostisbehere slides to that half wall he can unleash a one times while the goalie is trying to slide side to side. I think he is more a threat there then Voracek.

I think he'll see a healthy dose of PP time. Would not be surprised to see a 3F/2D approach to the top unit.

Ghost is so good at sliding down that you could have Simmonds moving from slot/net front where you might not need a full time slot player (Schenn/Hartnell).
- jmatchett383

I could see it but I still think they'll do a similar setup to last year...personnel wise.

I know last year they removed Jake and put Streit? over there...that was terrible.

I am optimistic they will be able to keep the Provy deal under 6.5
- YuenglingJagr

I am not. But i think he is worth it. I know it's early but watching him play at the end of the year he just reminds me of Doughty. He can control the game when he has the puck and it seems the game slows down.

I also think you'll see more of an edge in his game this year too with another year of confidence.

I am not. But i think he is worth it. I know it's early but watching him play at the end of the year he just reminds me of Doughty. He can control the game when he has the puck and it seems the game slows down.

I also think you'll see more of an edge in his game this year too with another year of confidence.
- J35Bacher

You're forgetting about the sophomore slump

I could see it but I still think they'll do a similar setup to last year...personnel wise.

I know last year they removed Jake and put Streit? over there...that was terrible.
- YuenglingJagr

Should be interesting. They need to fill Schenn's spot on the first unit and come up with a more effective 2nd unit. Have to think the new pp coach is going shake things up a bit, but I can't see any scenario where Giroux, Ghost and Simmonds aren't on the first unit. That would leave 7 spots to fill with the likely candidates being Provorov, Voracek, Konecny, Patrick, Lindblom, Couturier, Weal, and perhaps Filppula or a 3rd Dman.

I wonder if you'll see a little more movement this year. Seems like a lot of teams have more movement and not as stagnate.

If Ghostisbehere slides to that half wall he can unleash a one times while the goalie is trying to slide side to side. I think he is more a threat there then Voracek.
- J35Bacher

More of a scoring threat, maybe, but I do like Voracek distributing from that area. I also think he needs to shoot more on the PP.

I am not. But i think he is worth it. I know it's early but watching him play at the end of the year he just reminds me of Doughty. He can control the game when he has the puck and it seems the game slows down.

I also think you'll see more of an edge in his game this year too with another year of confidence.
- J35Bacher

I don't see Provorov putting up the offensive numbers that Doughty did early in his career. Provorov isn't going to get the PP time to do that.

Should be interesting. They need to fill Schenn's spot on the first unit and come up with a more effective 2nd unit. Have to think the new pp coach is going shake things up a bit, but I can't see any scenario where Giroux, Ghost and Simmonds aren't on the first unit. That would leave 7 spots to fill with the likely candidates being Provorov, Voracek, Konecny, Patrick, Lindblom, Couturier, Weal, and perhaps Filppula or a 3rd Dman.
- BiggE

I'd go with this, personally

1st unit
Giroux-Simmonds-Voracek-Ghost-Provorov

2nd unit
Patrick-Konecny-Lindblom-Couturier-Sanheim (if he makes the team)/Gudas

I'd go with this, personally

1st unit
Giroux-Simmonds-Voracek-Ghost-Provorov

2nd unit
Patrick-Konecny-Lindblom-Couturier-Sanheim (if he makes the team)/Gudas
- jmatchett383

I really don't like a 2nd unit with one Dman, they can caught, especially in the 2nd period, stuck on the ice in a 5 on 5 situation and that can quickly get ugly. I don't think that Sanheim will be up at the start of the season, so I would try:

1st Unit
Giroux-Simmonds-Lindblom-Konecny-Ghost*

2nd unit
Weal-Patrick-Voracek-Provorov-Gudas*

*since he doesn't play on the PK, I would look to doubleshift Ghost and just get Gudas on for him towards the end of the pp.

I don't see Provorov putting up the offensive numbers that Doughty did early in his career. Provorov isn't going to get the PP time to do that.
- MJL

Maybe not.

BUt I do think there will be an offensive uptick from him. Maybe he doesn't get to where Doughty was but i do think Provorov's next deal will see a similar jump like his.

Maybe not.

BUt I do think there will be an offensive uptick from him. Maybe he doesn't get to where Doughty was but i do think Provorov's next deal will see a similar jump like his.
- J35Bacher

Doughty put up 59 points and was a Norris trophy finalist in his 2nd season. I don't see that happening with Provorov. Doughty signed for 7M in 2011.

Doughty put up 59 points and was a Norris trophy finalist in his 2nd season. I don't see that happening with Provorov. Doughty signed for 7M in 2011.
- MJL

Doughty went from 6 goals and 21 assists to 16 and 43.

Provorov had 6 and 24. I don't think it would be hard for him to put up 10 and 40.

I expect he'll see a little more PP and with a better 2nd unit, if he is on it, should increase his point total.

Doughty went from 6 goals and 21 assists to 16 and 43.

Provorov had 6 and 24. I don't think it would be hard for him to put up 10 and 40.

I expect he'll see a little more PP and with a better 2nd unit, if he is on it, should increase his point total.
- J35Bacher

There were 9 defenseman in the entire league last year who scored 50 points or more. Unless he is a regular on the first PP unit, that will be hard to do. He had 5 PP assists last season. On the 2nd unit that total won't go up a whole lot. His 5 on 5 scoring output was outstanding for a rookie on a team that was poor in 5 on 5 scoring. Not a lot of room to add 20 points to his scoring total.

Doughty went from 6 goals and 21 assists to 16 and 43.

Provorov had 6 and 24. I don't think it would be hard for him to put up 10 and 40.

I expect he'll see a little more PP and with a better 2nd unit, if he is on it, should increase his point total.
- J35Bacher

I forecast 16 goals 42 assist (better team shooting %).
He will score at least seven similar to the game winner he had v shiiiitCago.
Also throw in 2 EN.

There were 9 defenseman in the entire league last year who scored 50 points or more. Unless he is a regular on the first PP unit, that will be hard to do.
- MJL

Well we will have to see what happens with the PP. I expect some changes.

But I think Provorov will put up 45-50 points this year.