Are you using Norwegian math to calculate this?
- rangerdanger94

yes

I feel people must misunderstand something when they vote.
Hard to believe that 71 says 1 year and 59 says 3, 4 or 5 years...?

Edit: Read the damn blog properly; 2 different polls - that's why

I would say guys start declining depending on the player around 30, 28 is still considered prime years.
- nyrangers9479

You might be right but still at 24 a 5 year deal locks him in to age 29. Why extend past that?

How do NHL players age? When do they peak? How quickly do they decline? Questions about player aging in the NHL have been debated for years, and an incredible amount of research has already been done trying to answer these questions. Within the past 3 years, however, it seems a general consensus has been reached. Rob Vollman summarizes this quite well in his book Stat Shot: The Ultimate Guide to Hockey Analytics: “Most players hit their peak age by age 24 or 25 then decline gradually until age 30, at which point their performance can begin to tumble more noticeably with the risk of absolute collapse by age 34 or 35.”

A 1 year deal would be silly but:

A player may only declare himself to be an unrestricted free agent if he is over the age of 27 or has played in the league for a minimum of 7 years.

I believe his 9 games in 2011-12 do not count in this regard. A 2 year deal gets him to UFA quickest if I understand things correctly.
- Feds91Stammer

You might be right could be 2 years to UFA

You might be right but still at 24 a 5 year deal locks him in to age 29. Why extend past that?
- Feds91Stammer

Bc then at 29 you have to either be done with him or give him a contract you'll regret.

You might be right but still at 24 a 5 year deal locks him in to age 29. Why extend past that?
- Feds91Stammer

To bring cap hit down

Bc then at 29 you have to either be done with him or give him a contract you'll regret.
- nyrangers9479

I don't see much issue there.

To bring cap hit down
- rangerdanger94

In theory yes this can help but wouldn't you be potentially creating a bigger cap issue down the road signing such long deals?

In theory yes this can help but wouldn't you be potentially creating a bigger cap issue down the road signing such long deals?
- Feds91Stammer

Potentially. You also potentially create an even bigger cap issue if he's a UFA at 28/29 and is a key player on the team. I.e Lundqvist where you lock him up at 28 because you have to knowing you'll likely regret the deal at age 37

You might be right could be 2 years to UFA
- nyrangers9479

If Zib signs for two years, he becomes a free agent at the end of that deal.

Potentially. You also potentially create an even bigger cap issue if he's a UFA at 28/29 and is a key player on the team. I.e Lundqvist where you lock him up at 28 because you have to knowing you'll likely regret the deal at age 37
- rangerdanger94

Exactly

If Zib signs for two years, he becomes a free agent at the end of that deal.
- airjan23

Thanks

Potentially. You also potentially create an even bigger cap issue if he's a UFA at 28/29 and is a key player on the team. I.e Lundqvist where you lock him up at 28 because you have to knowing you'll likely regret the deal at age 37
- rangerdanger94

I get that but in this case we are talking about MZ. He is at best what a 50 point center. Wouldn't it be pretty unlikely he is never anything more than that? Wouldn't aging curves suggest at 28/29 he is probably a 30-40 point guy? And at 30/31 probably a 25-35 point guy?

I get that but in this case we are talking about MZ. He is at best what a 50 point center. Wouldn't it be pretty unlikely he is never anything more than that? Wouldn't aging curves suggest at 28/29 he is probably a 30-40 point guy? And at 30/31 probably a 25-35 point guy?
- Feds91Stammer

We're hoping Zib can be a 70 point guy for us next year

Look at you...


- mdw7413

Just came back from the town. Throwing money around

We're hoping Zib can be a 70 point guy for us next year
- rangerdanger94

Using his ~p60 of 2.3 last season.

MZ needs an average of ~22.2 mins a night for 82 games to hit 70 points.

Good arbitration info from Cap Friendly: https://www.capfriendly.com/arbitration

This is a key one:
The party (Player or Club) who did not elect for Arbitration decides on the awarded term (meaning years) [CBA 12.10(a)&(b)]

Since Mike Zibanejad is the one who elected arbitration, the Rangers get to decide on the number of years, so look for them to elect for one year, if it reaches an arbitrator's decision.

Using his ~p60 of 2.3 last season.

MZ needs an average of ~22.2 mins a night for 82 games to hit 70 points.
- Feds91Stammer

Well for one, that stat is likely off from what his true ability is since he broke his leg. It took him a while to get back to game shape and scoring form after returning, which likely puts a significant drag on that number.

i think Zib hasn't reached his ceiling yet. Still a young kid and has already accomplished a lot. Check out Brassard's career trajectory.

Well for one, that stat is likely off from what his true ability is since he broke his leg. It took him a while to get back to game shape and scoring form after returning, which likely puts a significant drag on that number.

i think Zib hasn't reached his ceiling yet. Still a young kid and has already accomplished a lot. Check out Brassard's career trajectory.
- rangerdanger94

The Brassard guy that saw his production dip to 39 points at age 29?

Well for one, that stat is likely off from what his true ability is since he broke his leg. It took him a while to get back to game shape and scoring form after returning, which likely puts a significant drag on that number.

i think Zib hasn't reached his ceiling yet. Still a young kid and has already accomplished a lot. Check out Brassard's career trajectory.
- rangerdanger94

His p60 the year before was ~2.1

The Brassard guy that saw his production dip to 39 points at age 29?
- Feds91Stammer

He had a bad year but he had the 2 best years of his career before that at ages 27 and 28. Zibby is 24 and is certainly not in his peak.

His p60 the year before was ~2.1
- Feds91Stammer

What about last season but only up until his injury?

I get that but in this case we are talking about MZ. He is at best what a 50 point center. Wouldn't it be pretty unlikely he is never anything more than that? Wouldn't aging curves suggest at 28/29 he is probably a 30-40 point guy? And at 30/31 probably a 25-35 point guy?
- Feds91Stammer

I think he's a 60 point guy, ceiling of 70. He had a great start to the season before he got hurt, has the size, 6'2 225 and speed to be a very good player.

What about last season but only up until his injury?
- rangerdanger94

Dunno.

But only 16 Fs had 70+ points last year. You really think MZ is on that level?

What about last season but only up until his injury?
- rangerdanger94

19 GP 5 G 10 A

Over 82 games that's 22 G 43 A for 65 PTS. Not saying he could have sustained that but I don't think 60 points is out of question for him.

He returned played 37 games and had 9 G 13 A for 22 PTS. That's a pace of 20 G 29 A for 49 points. Anyone that watched him before and after saw a completely different player. I think he's the one closer to before the injury, took him a looong time to get back to form.

19 GP 5 G 10 A

Over 82 games that's 22 G 43 A for 65 PTS. Not saying he could have sustained that but I don't think 60 points is out of question for him.

He returned played 37 games and had 9 G 13 A for 22 PTS. That's a pace of 20 G 29 A for 49 points. Anyone that watched him before and after saw a completely different player. I think he's the one closer to before the injury, took him a looong time to get back to form.
- nyrangers9479

Maybe he never gets to 70, but hopefully he can be around 65.