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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: The Ballad of Igor Makarov
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Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Jul 20 @ 2:17 PM ET
Second video:

https://twitter.com/BySco...status/888095257765826561

He looks decent coming off surgery.

- JRoenick97

Great to see Sharp working with the scouting coach now in addition to whatever private workouts he does on his own. Must be a nice treat for the prospects as well to see a Hawks veteran and leader at camp.
Antilles
St Louis Blues
Joined: 10.17.2008

Jul 20 @ 2:19 PM ET
I believe the cap was in existence since 2005. The greatest change in spending for the Hawks occurred after Dollar Bill Wirtz died (2007) and Rocky Wirtz took over. Rocky hired McDonough almost right away to increase revenue streams through marketing and changing the organizational culture. It also changed when the Hawks had players worth paying/signing. Toews drafted in 2006, Kane 2007, Hossa 2009.

Although you could be correct in questioning whether in a non-salary cap environment the Hawks would have been able to win 3 Stanley Cups and land some free agents or retain some of their own free agents bidding against other teams with deep pockets like Toronto, NY, Det, Montreal, etc....

Conversely it could be argued in a non-salary cap environment the Hawks could out bid 75% of the teams in the league that are in small markets or are under funded for the services of elite free agents.

The general consensus is that the salary cap has worked against the Hawks instead of in their favor in recent years. The same intellectuals would have to say the salary cap benefits small market teams like St. Louis which has allowed them to win so many Stanley Cups recently. Oh wait.......

- -Doh-


Blackhawks actually started spending significantly more right after the lockout, while still under Bill. They made Khabibulin the highest paid goaltender in the league in 05. They outbid other teams for (at the time) all-star defenseman Aucoin in 05. And took on more salary in trades for guys like Havlat in 06. Blackhawks change in spending coincides with the advent of the salary cap just as it does with Rocky taking over for Bill. That just doesn't get mentioned because Hawks fans still justifiably hate Dollar Bill for everything prior to the 04/05 lockout.

The idea that Blackhawks could outbid 75% of teams in a non-salary cap world does seem likely. At the same time, JJ suggested this year that the Blackhawks budget is reliant on deep playoff runs, which is actually the exact same as the Blues. And it's impossible to know whether Rocky Wirtz's willingness to spend on the team was a result of the salary cap, like his dad, or would have happened regardless.

Don't get me wrong, Blackhawk fans are completely correct that Hawks may have been even more dominant the last 7 years if not for the salary cap. I'm just saying don't hate on the Cap too much, because there is also a chance the opposite would be true, and no one has had it better than Hawks fans since the salary cap came into existence.
blackhawk24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Lake in the Hills, IL
Joined: 06.06.2009

Jul 20 @ 2:35 PM ET
I'm happy nobody has Hammer's #4 yet. I'm not ready to see that number on any other Hawk yet.
- Mr Ricochet

That's cuz they'll re-acquire him hrs before the '19 TDL.
tredbrta
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.30.2012

Jul 20 @ 2:40 PM ET
There is no way to know if the 2010 Hawks would have even existed if not for the salary cap. Blackhawks didn't start investing into the team until after they had the cost certainty of a cap in place. And without the salary cap hindrance, Hawks might have been able to keep their team together better; but they also might have done worse without the cap stopping teams like Toronto from being able to through 20m a year contracts around at guys like Kane and Toews.
- Antilles


Complete supposition. Rocky appeared to be committed to taking a different approach to his father. I doubt that would have changed whether the cap was in place or not.

Interesting, how your cap free scenario also required zero restrictions on free agency to make it negative for the Hawks. That type of assumption seems to be necessary to all of your posts here? Reason? Oh well, anyways. A cap free, total free agent market would still leave the Blues without a Cup so all is well.

Cmonalready
Joined: 07.02.2012

Jul 20 @ 2:47 PM ET
I think that they do a better job in baseball predicting success with prospects. And with the amount of stupid talent the Sox have, there should be some nice pieces there.

I love what the Sox are doing but I don't think the Hawks could do the same. They couldn't just move Kane or Toews' 10.5 million for picks and prospects. Same for Seabs too. I think something comes back the other way. And Hockey is kind of a weird sport with prospects and even some younger players.

Unfortunately, I see them going the path of Detroit and withering away in 3 or 4 years. I think the way money is moved around in baseball and how attendance means little its easier to be terrible for 3 or 4 years while rebuilding.

With door sales still playing a big part in hockey I think that would be a difficult thing to do in Chicago. Especially with how they have done things ticket wise and just the cost of everything in the stadium in general.

- fattybeef


Couldn't be further from the truth. Look up the success rate of 1st round baseball picks getting to a meaningful professional career. "meaningful" to me means something like 5+ years as a starter in the league. Against other sports.

My guesses:
Football: 70%
Basketball: 80% (looking at top 1/2 of 1st round only, as roster size is 12)
Hockey: 50%+
Baseball: less than 50%
tredbrta
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.30.2012

Jul 20 @ 2:48 PM ET
Blackhawks actually started spending significantly more right after the lockout, while still under Bill. They made Khabibulin the highest paid goaltender in the league in 05. They outbid other teams for (at the time) all-star defenseman Aucoin in 05. And took on more salary in trades for guys like Havlat in 06. Blackhawks change in spending coincides with the advent of the salary cap just as it does with Rocky taking over for Bill. That just doesn't get mentioned because Hawks fans still justifiably hate Dollar Bill for everything prior to the 04/05 lockout.

The idea that Blackhawks could outbid 75% of teams in a non-salary cap world does seem likely. At the same time, JJ suggested this year that the Blackhawks budget is reliant on deep playoff runs, which is actually the exact same as the Blues. And it's impossible to know whether Rocky Wirtz's willingness to spend on the team was a result of the salary cap, like his dad, or would have happened regardless.

Don't get me wrong, Blackhawk fans are completely correct that Hawks may have been even more dominant the last 7 years if not for the salary cap. I'm just saying don't hate on the Cap too much, because there is also a chance the opposite would be true, and no one has had it better than Hawks fans since the salary cap came into existence.

- Antilles



blackhawk24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Lake in the Hills, IL
Joined: 06.06.2009

Jul 20 @ 2:52 PM ET
Curious what you Chicago baseball fans think about what the White Sox are doing.

As a Sox fan, I am both excited/scared. 5-6 prospects in the overall top 30 in baseball, 2-3 awesome power arms and lots of overall pitching quality depth.

But it's also all sunshine and roses with prospects, no guarantees of success.

As a HAWK fan, honestly, this is the kind of rebuild I would like to see the Hawks do in 3-5 years. Tear the whole thing down, stock up on HIGH quality prospects and high picks—not the best of the scratch and dent bin and a slow slide to mediocrity like Detroit has.

Really tank for 3 years or so, then come back like the team did from 07-10.

Thoughts?

- John Jaeckel

Depends on if they rebuilt the minor league system. Better prospects are one thing. A system to fit them into is a whole other ball of wax.

One can debate the "return" they received in recent trades.....until the cows come home, or 3-5 yrs, whichever is first. But can they draft their own kids.

StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 20 @ 2:52 PM ET
Complete supposition. Rocky appeared to be committed to taking a different approach to his father. I doubt that would have changed whether the cap was in place or not.

Interesting, how your cap free scenario also required zero restrictions on free agency to make it negative for the Hawks. That type of assumption seems to be necessary to all of your posts here? Reason? Oh well, anyways. A cap free, total free agent market would still leave the Blues without a Cup so all is well.


- tredbrta


A different approach, but that would not necessarily have led to a "free-spending" continuation of the 2010 team at ever-increasing salaries.

If the CBA "gave" 50% of league HRR to the players - and the cap is based on that number, plus a factor (which is why there is the escrow on player pay) - say the cap is at 55% - the Hawks, with high revenues, are paying (and are limited to paying) much less of Blackhawk revenues than 50% - a profitable "cost certainty" better than most other NHL franchises.

We haven't heard anything about Rocky/McD advocating for a higher player split, or a higher cap, or even complaining about the retroactive recapture on the Hossa-type contracts.

I'm not sure Rocky fell that far from his father's tree - he just better understood modern revenue generation, and has operated the franchise in a more favorable time for controlling player costs - he's let the CBA agreement do it instead of how his father did it.

Both father and son got rid of players because of money - Dad because they demanded too much money, and Son because the cap limited how much players could get.
blackhawk24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Lake in the Hills, IL
Joined: 06.06.2009

Jul 20 @ 3:01 PM ET
Blackhawks actually started spending significantly more right after the lockout, while still under Bill. They made Khabibulin the highest paid goaltender in the league in 05. They outbid other teams for (at the time) all-star defenseman Aucoin in 05. And took on more salary in trades for guys like Havlat in 06. Blackhawks change in spending coincides with the advent of the salary cap just as it does with Rocky taking over for Bill. That just doesn't get mentioned because Hawks fans still justifiably hate Dollar Bill for everything prior to the 04/05 lockout.

The idea that Blackhawks could outbid 75% of teams in a non-salary cap world does seem likely. At the same time, JJ suggested this year that the Blackhawks budget is reliant on deep playoff runs, which is actually the exact same as the Blues. And it's impossible to know whether Rocky Wirtz's willingness to spend on the team was a result of the salary cap, like his dad, or would have happened regardless.

Don't get me wrong, Blackhawk fans are completely correct that Hawks may have been even more dominant the last 7 years if not for the salary cap. I'm just saying don't hate on the Cap too much, because there is also a chance the opposite would be true, and no one has had it better than Hawks fans since the salary cap came into existence.

- Antilles

Don't confuse the cap with Rocky. If Dollar Bill were alive or if son Peter took over, we have none of this and the chants of "1961" would be louder than NYR's 1940. On 9/26/07 the culture changed at 1901 W. Madison. I am still waiting for culture change at Halas Hall.
tredbrta
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.30.2012

Jul 20 @ 3:11 PM ET
A different approach, but that would not necessarily have led to a "free-spending" continuation of the 2010 team at ever-increasing salaries.

If the CBA "gave" 50% of league HRR to the players - and the cap is based on that number, plus a factor (which is why there is the escrow on player pay) - say the cap is at 55% - the Hawks, with high revenues, are paying (and are limited to paying) much less of Blackhawk revenues than 50% - a profitable "cost certainty" better than most other NHL franchises.

We haven't heard anything about Rocky/McD advocating for a higher player split, or a higher cap, or even complaining about the retroactive recapture on the Hossa-type contracts.

I'm not sure Rocky fell that far from his father's tree - he just better understood modern revenue generation, and has operated the franchise in a more favorable time for controlling player costs - he's let the CBA agreement do it instead of how his father did it.

Both father and son got rid of players because of money - Dad because they demanded too much money, and Son because the cap limited how much players could get.

- StLBravesFan


He fell far enough. You can see that in the spending on college free agents, development at the AHL and NCAA levels etc....

Although Antille's re-telling of the final years may be convenient for his narrative it is actually untrue. Yes, there were a few high profile free agent signings in Bill's final years but he was in ill health even before the cancer diagnosis and was less involved in decisions. Peter was siding with the GMs on those high profile signings (probably as a headline grabber) but development and other important facets to becoming a top franchise were still being all but ignored. Spending was nowhere near the other top franchises - particularly on development. When Bill croaked and Rocky grabbed the reins from Peter - the shift was significant at all levels.

And I'm not saying those Wirtz genes aren't thankful for the salary cap. Just that he is running the sports franchise more as a business with goals. Bill treated the Hawks more like a write off. Peter looked like he was going to be slightly better but more like dad than Rocky.

Perhaps he may revert but I doubt it. I believe they have seen the upside to winning.

And, unlike the Blues, spending to the cap will never require measures like sharing their AHL affiliate with another organization (as the Blues are with LVK).
tredbrta
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.30.2012

Jul 20 @ 3:17 PM ET
Don't confuse the cap with Rocky. If Dollar Bill were alive or if son Peter took over, we have none of this and the chants of "1961" would be louder than NYR's 1940. On 9/26/07 the culture changed at 1901 W. Madison. I am still waiting for culture change at Halas Hall.
- blackhawk24


Exactly.

Antilles narratives always require reality to be tweaked a tad.

Why?

Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jul 20 @ 3:18 PM ET
This is the concern, This kind of deal. They are not gonna stop.
I guess I will be very happy because as they continue these signings, these deals will they will break the current agreement with the Cap as it is...
Colton Parayko
They drafted the kid out of the AJHL he goes to college, signs his first entry level deal and after two NHL seasons he gets a THIRD yr deal at 5.5 million.
He always had the shot, but now has scored 13 nhl goals and 4 post season goals.

again no bridge deal,

More than Hammer, almost as much as Keith's deal.

I am not trying to downplay the position he will be asked to play, just the fact that his third NHl is a 5.5 mil figure.

- wiz1901


I like this deal for both sides. Been a fan of this beast since I saw him live his rookie yr. An elite skater IMO with a lot of size, booming shot and if he wasn't stuck behind Pietroangelo and Shattenkirk the last two yrs he may be getting more.
93Joe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.09.2015

Jul 20 @ 3:19 PM ET
Great to see Sharp working with the scouting coach now in addition to whatever private workouts he does on his own. Must be a nice treat for the prospects as well to see a Hawks veteran and leader at camp.
- AEL_Fox

Another workout fiend. Him and Keith are at the top.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 20 @ 3:23 PM ET
Pittsburgh
- kwolf68

Pittsburgh no longer has a proven 3C or 4C, they lost a good vet in Kunitz, and their goalie backup is Niemi. Depending on other moves they make, they could definitely be at a loss if one of their top 6 or Murray goes down.

Their defense is a little more stable, though imo.
CanOCorn
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: The OP, IL
Joined: 04.03.2013

Jul 20 @ 3:27 PM ET
Couldn't be further from the truth. Look up the success rate of 1st round baseball picks getting to a meaningful professional career. "meaningful" to me means something like 5+ years as a starter in the league. Against other sports.

My guesses:
Football: 70%
Basketball: 80% (looking at top 1/2 of 1st round only, as roster size is 12)
Hockey: 50%+
Baseball: less than 50%

- Cmonalready


This is true, but don't forget the sheer mass of players in a farm system but only 25 big league roster spots. I would go further with your numbers saying there are more CAPABLE players that don't get spots on the big league team. Either they are blocked or traded or injured or whatever.

Football doesn't have a minor league system (unless you count college football, heh)
Basketball really just has the D-League and it's not used to its potential, yet.
Hockey is mostly the AHL, but you can include the ECHL and other developmental leagues, if you wish.
JRoenick97
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Spokane, WA
Joined: 07.20.2012

Jul 20 @ 3:33 PM ET
Chester Bennington of Linkin Park committed suicide. Bummer.
Hossa1881
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 07.01.2011

Jul 20 @ 3:39 PM ET
Chester Bennington of Linkin Park committed suicide. Bummer.
- JRoenick97


Saw that. Totally sucks. People will say what they will about Linkin Park's music but it's always awful to hear that kind of news. They say he was very close friends with Chris Cornell, and it would've been Chris's birthday today.
onehundredlevel
Joined: 10.27.2015

Jul 20 @ 3:40 PM ET
I think it's the right move. And Sox fans are excited about the future. Moncada has already been called up to Chicago and I suspect some more kids will get a look and then next year I think Rodon, Giolitto and Lopez may well be in the rotation next season.

The Sox are absolutely LOADED with pitchers in the system, I have no less than 10 with starting rotation potential, with 3 or 4 having elite status. A few of those guys won't pan out, a few others will be destined for the pen, but the amount of pitching depth is extensive.

The Sox have a terrific looking group of outfielders in the system, most in Higher A, with prospects like Rutherford, Eloys and Robert head line this group. The Sox have some depth too, Basabe (part of the Sale deal) has very high upside (though not as blue chip as Eloys). The Sox still have some decent depth behind those guys. So Pitcher and OF look great.

Corners look OK, maybe good. Burger, Sheets, DelMonico, even Davidson promise to compete at the corner. Collins, a top catching prospect is not a guarantee to make it in MLB as catcher, but he should hit, so I could see him at 1 or DH in 2 years.

Sox ONLY weakness is at C and MI depth. Moncada and Anderson are terrific up the middle, but after that nothing, though Hahn did grab former Rangers SS spec Yeyson Yrizarri. He has tons of tools, a + arm, but questions about his range at SS and the fact he swings at literally EVERYTHING may limit his potential upside. Though he's got talent.

I'd like to see Hahn bring in one more MI prospect and would love to see them land a defensive minded catcher who can handle pitchers well, especially as the Sox enter this era where they will have a full rotation of under 25 year old players.

They still have a couple guys they could trade and what likely will be a Top 3 draft pick next season to continue adding young talent.

Next year the team should pretty well stink again, but I think the 2nd half of the season you could see some signs. Then they should be competitive and fun by 2019 with 2020 being their ETA to really compete.

- kwolf68


This is really well thought out. It's how I feel too. Very good SP depth. Good OF. Collins should DH. Young defensive Catcher. Good up the middle. Maybe a 3B in the kid they drafted this year.

If I were Sox...I would deal Abreu as well. I know he is there for the Cuban kids. But now is the time to strike on him. He is already 30. If you old him to long he will be out of his prime and the Sox won't get what they can get for him right now. Maybe bring back a young 1B in return....who knows.
onehundredlevel
Joined: 10.27.2015

Jul 20 @ 3:43 PM ET
I think the Sox are in good shape. Will all the guys live up to their ranking? Doesn't matter.....they are in good shape with as many guys as they have.

What will be interesting to watch is they will be bad.....very bad next year and possibly the year after. The huge thing is can Reinsdorf stomach that type of financial loss when you are looking at sparsely filled crowds and a plumment in season ticket renewals? Cubs survived because Wrigley is/was/still is an event......Comiskey isn't.

I think in 2021 they are knocking on the door of being a contender assuming Hahn stays the course and spends where he needs to.

- SteveRain


I agree here too...but their payroll will really be low next season...like maybe only $50million. Melky is free agent after season, so only contract guys are Abreu and Robertson really.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 20 @ 3:44 PM ET
If anyone is interested in where Murphy falls in with the other Hawks defenders when it comes to protecting the blue-line, here it is (click to make bigger):



Notes:
Last year was Seabrook's worst year at zone breakups - he's usually a bit closer to Hjammer. Rozsival's sample size is really really skewing his results. Keith is the unmarked Indianhead.
Hank_Greenberg
Joined: 09.30.2015

Jul 20 @ 3:44 PM ET
They had one guy who could play and fight, albeit on the back end of his career. But he had a few good years in Chicago.

#24.

- John Jaeckel


Loved Probie, even when he was on Detroit. What a monster. Met him a few times at my friends restaurant near the Stadium/UC during his stint with the Hawks (the Palace, for those keeping score at home), and he couldn't have been a nicer guy.

CanOCorn
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: The OP, IL
Joined: 04.03.2013

Jul 20 @ 3:45 PM ET
This is really well thought out. It's how I feel too. Very good SP depth. Good OF. Collins should DH. Young defensive Catcher. Good up the middle. Maybe a 3B in the kid they drafted this year.

If I were Sox...I would deal Abreu as well. I know he is there for the Cuban kids. But now is the time to strike on him. He is already 30. If you old him to long he will be out of his prime and the Sox won't get what they can get for him right now. Maybe bring back a young 1B in return....who knows.

- onehundredlevel


Nah, keep him. He'll be off the books by the time the Sox will truly be competing (hopefully). If you are going to deal anyone, deal Avi. Strike while the iron is hot.
JRoenick97
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Spokane, WA
Joined: 07.20.2012

Jul 20 @ 3:46 PM ET
Saw that. Totally sucks. People will say what they will about Linkin Park's music but it's always awful to hear that kind of news. They say he was very close friends with Chris Cornell, and it would've been Chris's birthday today.
- Hossa1881

He gave Cornell's eulogy.
onehundredlevel
Joined: 10.27.2015

Jul 20 @ 3:48 PM ET
See, this is what the cap does. It causes good teams to be bad.
How far would the 2010 hocks have gone if THEY could pay their players and not have to trade them so the players could get the money they earned? Nobody knows. So now it's this. Draft or find diamonds in the rough and hope to build a team with a "core " of highly skilled players.

There needs to be cap relief for players you draft and bring up through your system. Some way to keep the talent that you helped to nurture.

The fact that you have to ask the question, stinks.

....

- hocktock


We can't have this both ways, guys. Hawks used Cap to their advantage by signing Campbell and Hossa....while Toews and Kane were on very low contracts. So everyone was fine then when the cap worked in our favor. Now the bill comes due and we have to deal with it. I just don't think people think that part through...they just blame the cap for us not being able to keep our team together. We won three cups...what more can we possibly ask for on how we worked the cap for the first five years or so of the cap era???
Hank_Greenberg
Joined: 09.30.2015

Jul 20 @ 3:57 PM ET
Went to the downtown store Tuesday. They are still doing 2:1 on all Reenok jerseys. All home jerseys are gone. They have away and St Paddy's and some very large black.
- pdx2ord


Great tip! I'm at our downtown officer today, and I might just pop by the store ....

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