I call BULLSH!T



And yeah... their predictions are great...
had 2 teams in the Cup that MISSED the playoffs altogether
- jdfitz77

im talking about the advanced stats guys prediction not ryan kennedy or whomever.


i distinctly remember this place bursting into flames when that article came out having the leafs ahead of the sabres and why ristolainen's wins above replacement was so low. dont you?

Did I die and go back to 2014?
- chilliard77

Don't know what u mean?
Those were reasonable predictions based on the previous year

My point was...
no one is really good at projections league wide

For the most part,
We all thought we'd either just make the playoffs or just miss
Sabres had A LOT go wrong for them,
causing us to disappoint from what most thought we'd do

It was a bummer

Some health & improved defense will put us as a borderline playoff team

Don't know what u mean?
Those were reasonable predictions based on the previous year

My point was...
no one is really good at projections league wide

For the most part,
We all thought we'd either just make the playoffs or just miss
Sabres had A LOT go wrong for them,
causing us to disappoint from what most thought we'd do

It was a bummer

Some health & improved defense will put us as a borderline playoff team
- jdfitz77

I'm just talking about their predictions. And I also thought they were for next season

This is an accurate assessment
- chilliard77

try bumble, jochfr approves

im talking about the advanced stats guys prediction not ryan kennedy or whomever.


i distinctly remember this place bursting into flames when that article came out having the leafs ahead of the sabres and why ristolainen's wins above replacement was so low. dont you?
- Sabresfan-365

I don't really... but it sounds kinda familiar
Like u probably got from my posts already...
I don't put much stock in nation publications predictions

You & I know the Sabres better than they do


If u can find a link to what you're talking about,
post it up
I'd like to see just how accurate the fancy stats guys actually were

I bet they were just as off as any of the other predictions

I'm just talking about their predictions. And I also thought they were for next season
- chilliard77

No no no...
they were for last year sir

- Sabresfan-365

Do u have a link to the complete predictions?

Also,
I've heard guys who subscribe to fancy stats (specifically talking about Marek & Wyshynski) that have said if the Leafs got hit by the injuries Buffalo did, & we stayed healthy, that the fortunes of our teams could've easily switched

No no no...
they were for last year sir
- jdfitz77

I realized that now

Do u have a link to the complete predictions?
- jdfitz77

dont have one single link but if you google the team name+16-17 for THN the blurb at the end of each teams prediction is the one by Dom Luszczyszyn, hes their adv stats guy you'll find his point projecting thing there.


point of my original post wasnt that it should be treated as the superior prediction or anything just that when those articles come out you'll see the activity pick up here cause every year people lose their minds over it.


Edit: if matthews misses as many games as eichel they probably finish with the 84 pts Dom has projected there.

Our biggest problem wasnt eichels injury. its that the majority of the defence was basically one large blob of suck

dont have one single link but if you google the team name+16-17 for THN the blurb at the end of each teams prediction is the one by Dom Luszczyszyn, hes their adv stats guy you'll find his point projecting thing there.


point of my original post wasnt that it should be treated as the superior prediction or anything just that when those articles come out you'll see the activity pick up here cause every year people lose their minds over it.


Edit: if matthews misses as many games as eichel they probably finish with the 84 pts Dom has projected there.

Our biggest problem wasnt eichels injury. its that the majority of the defence was basically one large blob of suck
- Sabresfan-365

He also had LA at 102pts, ahead of Chicago
And I'm sure I could find a bunch more predictions that were way off

He also had LA at 102pts, ahead of Chicago
And I'm sure I could find a bunch more predictions that were way off



- jdfitz77

right, my original post wasnt to say that this stuff is amazing, just that it tends to have more value than the average prediction and that any time they come out and are even slightly different than what the average fan thinks or wants to believe you'll see a the activity here pick up like it did last year.

He did NOT have the Oilers in the playoffs like u said





He had Cbus & Ottawa out, Tampa & Dallas in, etc etc etc


Doesn't look to me that he was really better than anyone else
- jdfitz77

Thank you for ignoring the middle paragraph

also,



The Oilers might become a borderline playoff team on the addition of Versteeg alone. Add McDavid’s ascension on top of that and the team could jump to third best in the Pacific, edging out the Ducks. And that ignores any potential changes for the rest of the team. Maybe Leon Draisatl takes a big step in year two

best case scenario=95 pts=playoffs

right, my original post wasnt to say that this stuff is amazing, just that it tends to have more value than the average prediction and that any time they come out and are even slightly different than what the average fan thinks or wants to believe you'll see a the activity here pick up like it did last year.
- Sabresfan-365

Damn it
Not letting me put up the Oilers for some reason

Anyways...

He had Edmonton & Ottawa out, Tampa & Dallas in

Pretty much looks the same as all the other predictions to me
Not sure how he is more accurate as u say

Damn it
Not letting me put up the Oilers for some reason

Anyways...

He had Edmonton & Ottawa out, Tampa & Dallas in

Pretty much looks the same as all the other predictions to me
Not sure how he is more accurate as u say
- jdfitz77

In recent years, the Metro has been a gauntlet, but it’s softened to the point where the only real certainties are Pittsburgh and Washington. If the blue-collar forward group stays solid, the defence matures, and Bobrovsky bounces back, the Blue Jackets could fulfill on the promise they showed prior to last season.

Blue jackets best case aka bobrovsky bouncing back=96 pts=playoffs

best case scenario=95 pts=playoffs
- Sabresfan-365

Are you for real?

If u hedge your bets by 16points with every team,
of course u can be a predicting genius

That's a joke

Are you for real?

If u hedge your bets by 16points with every team,
of course u can be a predicting genius

That's a joke
- jdfitz77

no im actually low key a bot generated by eklund and co.

The best case for the sabres still had them out of a playoff spot

In recent years, the Metro has been a gauntlet, but it’s softened to the point where the only real certainties are Pittsburgh and Washington. If the blue-collar forward group stays solid, the defence matures, and Bobrovsky bounces back, the Blue Jackets could fulfill on the promise they showed prior to last season.

Blue jackets best case aka bobrovsky bouncing back=96 pts=playoffs
- Sabresfan-365

Yeah... and why if that stuff doesn't happen?
He isn't giving accurate predictions

He's hedging his bets & giving best/worst scenarios

Literally ANYONE can do that & be reasonable accurate

Yeah... and why if that stuff doesn't happen?
He isn't giving accurate predictions

He's hedging his bets & giving best/worst scenarios

Literally ANYONE can do that & be reasonable accurate
- jdfitz77

The projections are less about place in the standings and more about what kind of team they're expected to be

the range given to the sabres is non playoff team

the range given to the leafs is playoff team if everything goes right (which sadly it did)

no im actually low key a bot generated by eklund and co.

The best case for the sabres still had them out of a playoff spot
- Sabresfan-365

Tell ya what...

Bills will finish
If everything goes right... 10-6
If everything goes wrong... 4-12

That's not predicting
It's playing both sides

The only way to accurately judge what he says is by the actual projected points... which he appears to have as screwed up as anyone else

The projections are less about place in the standings and more about what kind of team they're expected to be

the range given to the sabres is non playoff team

the range given to the leafs is playoff team if everything goes right (which sadly it did)
- Sabresfan-365

At that range...
he had how many possible playoff teams?

24?

That's NOT impressive predicting

At that range...
he had how many possible playoff teams?

24?

That's NOT impressive predicting
- jdfitz77

i suppose it depends what you consider the cut off for playoffs (pts wise). think its less than 24 though.


its not perfect, its just better than blind predictions and results in a lot of conversation....like this one?

i suppose it depends what you consider the cut off for playoffs (pts wise). think its less than 24 though.


its not perfect, its just better than blind predictions and results in a lot of conversation....like this one?
- Sabresfan-365

It's not blind predictions

He got as much wrong in his actual predictions as anyone else
Of course someone who'd predict Montreal to make the playoffs would also say, worst case Price gets hurt & they miss
But they just give lists... u don't see their best & worse case

His predictions aren't more accurate
Just more thorough in that they allow for best case & worst case

Again...
his actual predictions were pretty much right in line with everyone elses

It's not blind predictions

He got as much wrong in his actual predictions as anyone else
Of course someone who'd predict Montreal to make the playoffs would also say, worst case Price gets hurt & they miss
But they just give lists... u don't see their best & worse case

His predictions aren't more accurate
Just more thorough in that they allow for best case & worst case

Again...
his actual predictions were pretty much right in line with everyone elses
- jdfitz77

just one example but how many people had the leafs ahead of the sabres after last off season?