1) yeah, it appears that Lupul is on LTIR (There were reports that the Leafs had him take a medical in June which he failed, I assume this was to be able to use him on LTIR before the UFA period opened, but regardless they have a little more cap space than previously thought).

If not Lupul it's Horton. I think the NHL doesn't like teams using LTIR in the summer but to be honest, when it comes to a guy like Horton, who is all but retired but won't retire because he's still under contract, I assume they let teams have a break to sign players and I don't think the PA would argue otherwise.

2) Jared is 100% correct. I don't see Rosen or Borgman making an immediate impact anywhere other than the Marlies at least to start.

Look at it this way; assuming Carrick and Hainsey are locks (which is a safe assumption) and assuming there are no trades made that subtract from the back end, it means Rosen and Borgman have to beat out Marincin, Marchenko, Dermott and Nielsen. Possibly Valiev as well. They're going to be in tough to come out on top of guys already in place. Same would go with Liljegren.

I assume the defence is pretty well exactly what they had last year, with only Hainsey as an addition. Marincin on the bottom pair with Hainsey, Marchenko in the pressbox, everyone else in the AHL until an injury or trade opens up a spot.
- bobinson

I think Marincin and Marchenko are the guys that need to beat everyone else

But your point stands - there are plenty of internal options that should be able to improve last year's bottom pairing.

I think Marincin and Marchenko are the guys that need to beat everyone else

But your point stands - there are plenty of internal options that should be able to improve last year's bottom pairing.
- Feeling Glucky?

They might sign Polak back for 6 months should he pass a medical

JGP

Who cares about the Leafs?

Sens just signed Pageau to a 3yr $9.3 million deal.

Who cares about the Leafs?

Sens just signed Pageau to a 3yr $9.3 million deal.
- Stalemate

There is no doubt that the Leafs will be very good in the future.

As for next season, I think the jury is still out.

They could easily win the division and just as esily miss the playoffs. They have alot of sophomores and we all know how many 2nd ye players seem to struggle. They also had basically zero injuries last year which contributed to their playoff spot. Finally, based on Leaf fans' comments, there are some big expectations next year. If the Leafs have a few injuries and a few slumps, they could be in for a rough year.

On the other hand, if they stay healthy and everyone continues to improve, they could dominate.

With most of the Atlantic div, what you see is what you will get. The Leafs are the one exception.

Still scratching by head with the Marleau signing. Not really sure what the point of it was.

Who cares about the Leafs?

Sens just signed Pageau to a 3yr $9.3 million deal.
- Stalemate

Good signing.
He'll earn his $3.1M easily.

There is no doubt that the Leafs will be very good in the future.

As for next season, I think the jury is still out.

They could easily win the division and just as esily miss the playoffs. They have alot of sophomores and we all know how many 2nd ye players seem to struggle. They also had basically zero injuries last year which contributed to their playoff spot. Finally, based on Leaf fans' comments, there are some big expectations next year. If the Leafs have a few injuries and a few slumps, they could be in for a rough year.

On the other hand, if they stay healthy and everyone continues to improve, they could dominate.

With most of the Atlantic div, what you see is what you will get. The Leafs are the one exception.

Still scratching by head with the Marleau signing. Not really sure what the point of it was.
- Charliebox

It's not as common for elite players to have the sophomore slump. They may not markedly improve, but I doubt there will be a major slump(though if any of them go more than a game without a point, you'll hear about it). Brown I can see slumping. Hyman had a brutal sh%, so he might actually see an improvement. Zaitsev isn't a real rookie either, if he was going to struggle, it would have been last year.

Marleau should replace Hyman on the top line. Hyman was near the top of the league in high danger scoring chances, but had the aforementioned brutal sh%. Marleau kills it infront of the net. He should have good chemistry with Matthews, and has the wheels to keep up with that top line. IMO it's as good a signing as you can hope for.

Im curious to see how florida does this year with a healthy roster.

Bufalo does seem like theyre a step behind, but eichal will bestarting he season on the team and not the ir this year.
- david22

Eichel is a douchebag, but he is actually an underrated player at this point.

Eichel is the new GM, but he is actually an underrated player at this point.
- Aetherial

fixed

There is no doubt that the Leafs will be very good in the future.

As for next season, I think the jury is still out.

They could easily win the division and just as esily miss the playoffs. They have alot of sophomores and we all know how many 2nd ye players seem to struggle. They also had basically zero injuries last year which contributed to their playoff spot. Finally, based on Leaf fans' comments, there are some big expectations next year. If the Leafs have a few injuries and a few slumps, they could be in for a rough year.

On the other hand, if they stay healthy and everyone continues to improve, they could dominate.

With most of the Atlantic div, what you see is what you will get. The Leafs are the one exception.

Still scratching by head with the Marleau signing. Not really sure what the point of it was.
- Charliebox

To free up a valuable piece, to put in a trade for a top 4 defenseman. JVR or Bozak, with an expired contract, at years end. Marleau signed for the kind of money that JVR was going to ask for, so swap out Marleau for JVR and move him in a deal, with extra's, for a need going forward.

The Leafs will be dog crap next year and will miss the playoffs, and for the 10th time in 12 years will finish behind the Sens. I don't care if you don't believe me, it will happen.

A significant portion of their offense relies on 3-4 good rookies who will all face potential sophomore slumps. While it is not necessarily a given, there is a small regression in points totals for players in their second year compared to their rookie seasons, or nil to very marginal improvement in most cases, even for elite players.

Despite what the cherry picked comparable analysis in the article below tells you, for most of the players listed there was either no change at all, or significant declines in their output, with some extreme outliers of improvement like Kovalchuk and Kopitar bringing up the averages significantly (it's not the cherry picked variables, but the numbers behind the numbers, that matter in analytics like this).

The Leafs should expect similar output from Matthews, Marner and Nylander (60-65 points each) as what they got last season, if it all falls into place and the team stays injury free, but to expect Matthews and Marner to turn into the second comings of Crosby and Kane in their sophomore seasons is just plain homerism, nothing more.

https://www.pensionplanpu...erience-a-sophomore-slump

They'll be a bubble team again, finish anywhere between 9th and 12th in the conference, but the status quo or regression in offensive output for their rookie scorers (plus given how they've done nothing to upgrade their weakest position with their defense) will be their undoing. They'll still be a fun exciting team to watch, but don't expect division title challenges or even a second round appearance until they can figure out how to play team defense, which they haven't yet.

The Leafs will be dog crap next year and will miss the playoffs, and for the 10th time in 12 years will finish behind the Sens. I don't care if you don't believe me, it will happen.

A significant portion of their offense relies on 3-4 good rookies who will all face potential sophomore slumps. While it is not necessarily a given, there is a small regression in points totals for players in their second year compared to their rookie seasons, or nil to very marginal improvement in most cases, even for elite players.

Despite what the cherry picked comparable analysis in the article below tells you, for most of the players listed there was either no change at all, or significant declines in their output, with some extreme outliers of improvement like Kovalchuk and Kopitar bringing up the averages significantly (it's not the cherry picked variables, but the numbers behind the numbers, that matter in analytics like this).

The Leafs should expect similar output from Matthews, Marner and Nylander (60-65 points each) as what they got last season, if it all falls into place and the team stays injury free, but to expect Matthews and Marner to turn into the second comings of Crosby and Kane in their sophomore seasons is just plain homerism, nothing more.

https://www.pensionplanpu...erience-a-sophomore-slump

They'll be a bubble team again, finish anywhere between 9th and 12th in the conference, but the regression in the offensive output for their rookie scorers (plus given how they've done nothing to upgrade their weakest position with their defense) will be their undoing. They'll still be a fun exciting team to watch, but don't expect division title challenges or even a second round appearance until they can figure out how to play team defense, which they haven't yet.
- ahjnkn

I think that's why they want to keep Kadri, JVR and Bozak around. And added Marleau. Takes the pressure off the kids should they slump

To free up a valuable piece, to put in a trade for a top 4 defenseman. JVR or Bozak, with an expired contract, at years end. Marleau signed for the kind of money that JVR was going to ask for, so swap out Marleau for JVR and move him in a deal, with extra's, for a need going forward.
- PrinceLH

Then why not sign the MUCH younger JVR?
JVR has been very good for the Leafs since they acquired him.

Then why not sign the MUCH younger JVR?
JVR has been very good for the Leafs since they acquired him.
- mlindsay

Probably because it's another step in a new direction and out with the old guard. Also they get a good player and can now trade JVR for picks or help on D. Win win scenario, sort of. We're also assuming JVR doesn't choose to test the market and perhaps take an offer elsewhere. Lots of variables.

fixed
- mlindsay

The Leafs will be dog crap next year and will miss the playoffs, and for the 10th time in 12 years will finish behind the Sens. I don't care if you don't believe me, it will happen.

A significant portion of their offense relies on 3-4 good rookies who will all face potential sophomore slumps. While it is not necessarily a given, there is a small regression in points totals for players in their second year compared to their rookie seasons, or nil to very marginal improvement in most cases, even for elite players.

Despite what the cherry picked comparable analysis in the article below tells you, for most of the players listed there was either no change at all, or significant declines in their output, with some extreme outliers of improvement like Kovalchuk and Kopitar bringing up the averages significantly (it's not the cherry picked variables, but the numbers behind the numbers, that matter in analytics like this).

The Leafs should expect similar output from Matthews, Marner and Nylander (60-65 points each) as what they got last season, if it all falls into place and the team stays injury free, but to expect Matthews and Marner to turn into the second comings of Crosby and Kane in their sophomore seasons is just plain homerism, nothing more.

https://www.pensionplanpu...erience-a-sophomore-slump

They'll be a bubble team again, finish anywhere between 9th and 12th in the conference, but the regression in the offensive output for their rookie scorers (plus given how they've done nothing to upgrade their weakest position with their defense) will be their undoing. They'll still be a fun exciting team to watch, but don't expect division title challenges or even a second round appearance until they can figure out how to play team defense, which they haven't yet.
- ahjnkn

so salty.

so salty.
- prock

Pot calling the kettle black.

Pot calling the kettle black.
- forbetterorWORSE

I'm salty about having one of the best young teams in the league? the leafs are davourites to win the division, and are set up to be a powerhouse for years. nothibg to be salty about.

comprising a massive long post using an article that says the sophomore slump is greatly exaggerated and generally players remain static to back up a statement that the Leafs will fall in a big way in the standings is pretty much completely absent of logic. they had a pretty good goal differential and a horrible record in the shootout. if the sophomore slump is overblown, those two things will likely lead to a better points total, even without player improvement. on top of that, their record over the last 60 games or so was top 3 or 4 in the east.

so yep, it's salt. grasping for something. you can try to rationalize it all you want. the Leafs and the bolts are the teams to beat in the division this year.

I'm salty about having one of the best young teams in the league? the leafs are davourites to win the division, and are set up to be a powerhouse for years. nothibg to be salty about.

comprising a massive long post using an article that says the sophomore slump is greatly exaggerated and generally players remain static to back up a statement that the Leafs will fall in a big way in the standings is pretty much completely absent of logic. they had a pretty good goal differential and a horrible record in the shootout. if the sophomore slump is overblown, those two things will likely lead to a better points total, even without player improvement. on top of that, their record over the last 60 games or so was top 3 or 4 in the east.

so yep, it's salt. grasping for something. you can try to rationalize it all you want. the Leafs and the bolts are the teams to beat in the division this year.
- prock

Favorites to win the division is pushing it, and I would say any bad luck they had in lost shootout points was offset by their extraordinary injury luck..

Favorites to win the division is pushing it, and I would say any bad luck they had in lost shootout points was offset by their extraordinary injury luck..
- wilkobecks

now here is a question for you. Craig Anderson had a career year (for playing 35+ games). if he doesn't replicate that, and say, falls back to his career average of .916, how many games do you think that will cost the turds? he's got a long history of being a streaky goalie. not only is it possible. its likely, at the age of 37 or whatever.

over 40 games, that's 10 to 15 goals. I'd say that's FAR more likely to lead to a regression than a supposed sophomore slump which barely exists, if at all. especially for a team that had such trouble with goal differential. and pretty fortunate skills competition results. oh and just lost the defensive side of their first pairing.

The Leafs will be dog crap next year and will miss the playoffs, and for the 10th time in 12 years will finish behind the Sens. I don't care if you don't believe me, it will happen.

A significant portion of their offense relies on 3-4 good rookies who will all face potential sophomore slumps. While it is not necessarily a given, there is a small regression in points totals for players in their second year compared to their rookie seasons, or nil to very marginal improvement in most cases, even for elite players.

Despite what the cherry picked comparable analysis in the article below tells you, for most of the players listed there was either no change at all, or significant declines in their output, with some extreme outliers of improvement like Kovalchuk and Kopitar bringing up the averages significantly (it's not the cherry picked variables, but the numbers behind the numbers, that matter in analytics like this).

The Leafs should expect similar output from Matthews, Marner and Nylander (60-65 points each) as what they got last season, if it all falls into place and the team stays injury free, but to expect Matthews and Marner to turn into the second comings of Crosby and Kane in their sophomore seasons is just plain homerism, nothing more.

https://www.pensionplanpu...erience-a-sophomore-slump

They'll be a bubble team again, finish anywhere between 9th and 12th in the conference, but the regression in the offensive output for their rookie scorers (plus given how they've done nothing to upgrade their weakest position with their defense) will be their undoing. They'll still be a fun exciting team to watch, but don't expect division title challenges or even a second round appearance until they can figure out how to play team defense, which they haven't yet.
- ahjnkn

You throw around that word, regression, a lot... but I don't think there's a team in the league that's more primed for a massive regression than the Sens.


A lot of people compare the Leafs to Colorado and Calgary, saying they regressed and the Leafs will too... but Ottawa's underlying stats are a lot closer to those teams than the Leafs.

so salty.
- prock

I love that he posts that PPP article that methodically dismantles everything he's saying, using math and lots of data, and says it's pure homerism... but doesn't back up his own arguments with... anything.

I love that he posts that PPP article that methodically dismantles everything he's saying, using math and lots of data, and says it's pure homerism... but doesn't back up his own arguments with... anything.
- Feeling Glucky?

yeah, I thought it was an odd reference too. An article that basically says there is little to no regression from year 1 to 2, and he's using it as a basis to say there will be regression.

I'd question whether the very little regression that is shown there, is actually statistically relevant. I'd say there is a good chance that any variance there probably isn't enough to qualify as statistically relevant, and likely falls into the category of standard variance.

There are formulas to measure that, I just don't know what they are. Someone should ask lumlums to calculate it.

Count on Leafs D and goaltending to be a horror show.

Love the signing of Pageau.