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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: Bowman had a plan—what was it?
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EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Jul 16 @ 10:58 AM ET
As much as I, and probably many of my fellow Hawks fans, want questions to be answered now, there's no reason for Stan to do anything else right now in the middle of the summer and the smart move is probably not to.

Prospect Camp starts tomorrow and although you can't base NHL roster decisions on a prospect having a great camp, you can probably eliminate the possibility a prospect having a shot at making the NHL roster if the prospect doesn't have a great camp - i.e. if DeBrincat isn't head and shoulders above the other prospects than there is little chance he is ready to play in the NHL.

Stan can sit back and assess the prospects this coming week as well as in the Traverse City Tourney in September and have a better understanding of what he has, both in terms of a prospect making the NHL roster as well as which prospects can be used as trade chips.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jul 16 @ 11:03 AM ET
Toews and Keith aren't the same players they used to be 5 years ago. Still good players, but no longer elite IMO.

A lot of people still think along the lines of "hey if you've got Kane, Toews, and Keith anything is possible". Unfortunately that's no longer the case.

- SimpleJack


Well, they certainly weren't the last two years. There's no question bout that.

All that said, both played a lot of hockey and didn't get much rest/training time the last two offseasons, both took fairly serious injuries over the last 12 months (Keith/knee, Toews/back).

Toews is 29. Keith is 34 (today!).

If either or both come in fully rested, rehabbed and ready—and there's no guarantee of that except the added time and focus this offseason—there's literally no reason to think either are done or even fully past their primes.

Toews is 29, talented, a prodigious trainer.

Sure, Keith is getting long in the tooth, but he is also documented off the charts athletically, a la a Nolan Ryan.

Here's the other thing, like I say, could be you're right, but the Hawks have NOT gone there yet.

If Bowman, on the advice of Hawk doctors and trainers and coaches and scouts, thought either or both of these guys were done or fully on the decline, then I believe the trades this summer would have been a lot more dramatic.


Put another way, they could deal Keith, right now, for a King's Ransom at his ability and cap hit and term. Same with Kane. Toews? Meh, there's an argument there. But . . .

They are, and have been, along with Kane, the engines of this team. And no one the Hawks currently hold rights to can replace that, now or in the future. No one. Not DeBrincat, not Forsling, not close.

If/when one of these three guys is truly done or THAT declined, then you will likely see some very big "rebuilding" type moves.

Could be as soon as next summer if your opinion is accurate. But, trust me, the Hawks, who probably have the best info. and assessment of where these guys truly are physically, don't seem to be in agreement. if they were, like I said, there would have been bigger changes this summer.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jul 16 @ 11:08 AM ET
As much as I, and probably many of my fellow Hawks fans, want questions to be answered now, there's no reason for Stan to do anything else right now in the middle of the summer and the smart move is probably not to.

Prospect Camp starts tomorrow and although you can't base NHL roster decisions on a prospect having a great camp, you can probably eliminate the possibility a prospect having a shot at making the NHL roster if the prospect doesn't have a great camp - i.e. if DeBrincat isn't head and shoulders above the other prospects than there is little chance he is ready to play in the NHL.

Stan can sit back and assess the prospects this coming week as well as in the Traverse City Tourney in September and have a better understanding of what he has, both in terms of a prospect making the NHL roster as well as which prospects can be used as trade chips.

- EbonyRaptor


Agreed and let me add, a guy can have a fantastic prospect camp and be completely lost when pro camp is done. (See: Garlock, Kojevnikov, Makarov, etc)

Will also tell you this, I have a hunch Debrincat will shine in prospect camp—the hype will get (frank)ing bugpoop crazy—and that alone will put a bigger target on his back in pro camp. Then it gets interesting.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jul 16 @ 11:13 AM ET
Question is - will Rocky-McD be ok with a team that is building for next year and beyond - and maybe/possibly/probably doesn't get any more than 2 or 3 play-off games next spring?

We have to still see if that winds up being the case, but there is certainly a decent chance...

- StLBravesFan


I believe Bowman undertook this plan with the full endorsement of his superiors. No question.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jul 16 @ 11:21 AM ET
Well, they certainly weren't the last two years. There's no question bout that.

All that said, both played a lot of hockey and didn't get much rest/training time the last two offseasons, both took fairly serious injuries over the last 12 months (Keith/knee, Toews/back).

Toews is 29. Keith is 34 (today!).

If either or both come in fully rested, rehabbed and ready—and there's no guarantee of that except the added time and focus this offseason—there's literally no reason to think either are done or even fully past their primes.

Toews is 29, talented, a prodigious trainer.

Sure, Keith is getting long in the tooth, but he is also documented off the charts athletically, a la a Nolan Ryan.

Here's the other thing, like I say, could be you're right, but the Hawks have NOT gone there yet.

If Bowman, on the advice of Hawk doctors and trainers and coaches and scouts, thought either or both of these guys were done or fully on the decline, then I believe the trades this summer would have been a lot more dramatic.


Put another way, they could deal Keith, right now, for a King's Ransom at his ability and cap hit and term. Same with Kane. Toews? Meh, there's an argument there. But . . .

They are, and have been, along with Kane, the engines of this team. And no one the Hawks currently hold rights to can replace that, now or in the future. No one. Not DeBrincat, not Forsling, not close.

If/when one of these three guys is truly done or THAT declined, then you will likely see some very big "rebuilding" type moves.

Could be as soon as next summer if your opinion is accurate. But, trust me, the Hawks, who probably have the best info. and assessment of where these guys truly are physically, don't seem to be in agreement. if they were, like I said, there would have been bigger changes this summer.

- John Jaeckel


You want a really good comparable for Keith? Niklas Lidstrom was still arguably the best defenseman in the game at age 37-38. 3-4 years past where Keith is now.

He's a bigger guy than Keith, had as many "hard miles," but stylistically pretty darn similar. And while arguably a slightly better defenseman, Keith is right there.

Scott Neidermayer, another really good comparable for Keith, he still had a lot left at 34-35.

So I would just hold off on the post-mortems for Keith, unless, a remote possibility, that knee issue is degenerative. Then, different discussion. But were that the case, I think the Hawks would have known it, or worried about it, and at least shopped Keith this offseason. Didn't happen.

93Joe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.09.2015

Jul 16 @ 11:32 AM ET
Agreed and let me add, a guy can have a fantastic prospect camp and be completely lost when pro camp is done. (See: Garlock, Kojevnikov, Makarov, etc)

Will also tell you this, I have a hunch Debrincat will shine in prospect camp—the hype will get (frank)ing bugpoop crazy—and that alone will put a bigger target on his back in pro camp. Then it gets interesting.

- John Jaeckel

Agree on Alex D, John. I think Rutta will make some decent waves. I have to say that I think the other dark-horse... Alex Fortin will make some noise also. Natural LW who skated straight ahead, and picks his shots well.
boilermaker100
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2015

Jul 16 @ 11:40 AM ET
Agree on Alex D, John. I think Rutta will make some decent waves. I have to say that I think the other dark-horse... Alex Fortin will make some noise also. Natural LW who skated straight ahead, and picks his shots well.
- 93Joe


I read where Fortin has some sort of injury and will not be on the ice for this week's prospect camp. Hopefully nothing serious, and he can make some noise during the Traverse City tournament or regular training camp.
Lysiak
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: New York, NY
Joined: 07.15.2017

Jul 16 @ 11:47 AM ET
You want a really good comparable for Keith? Niklas Lidstrom was still arguably the best defenseman in the game at age 37-38. 3-4 years past where Keith is now.

He's a bigger guy than Keith, had as many "hard miles," but stylistically pretty darn similar. And while arguably a slightly better defenseman, Keith is right there.

Scott Neidermayer, another really good comparable for Keith, he still had a lot left at 34-35.

So I would just hold off on the post-mortems for Keith, unless, a remote possibility, that knee issue is degenerative. Then, different discussion. But were that the case, I think the Hawks would have known it, or worried about it, and at least shopped Keith this offseason. Didn't happen.

- John Jaeckel


I'm more confident Keith returns to form than Johnny, though those odds aren't favorable. Without DK at a high level, we're a bubble team or one and done come playoff time. Toews' (my favorite player) decline has been steady and consistent. Saad may help, but our captain is not a difference maker as he once was. If we get a TRUE bounce-back season from No. 19, I would be ecstatic. I just think it's highly unlikely.
Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Jul 16 @ 12:02 PM ET
Sorry from the end of the last blog;

Was reading where Blackhawks draft pick John Dahlstrom signed a two year contract with Almtuna IS.

That is a team in the second division Swedish league.

He had a good year at Medicine Hat last year.

Question, is that a normal move for a player. Seems a step back to me.

Wouldn't they normally go from from there to Rockford.


Was just curious why someone who had a real good year in the WHL, would go back to Sweden, instead of Rockford, or at least if you were going back to Sweden after a year like that, wouldn't you at least be able to play in the SEL?

- vabeachbear


This is an opinion not based on any whispers or hands on knowledge.

He's only 22 and Sweden has become a popular destination for developing dmen and he stays home. Also, will make probably more money and most likely get more ice time. Plus the Hawks keep close tabs on what goes on overseas and Rockford isn't the end all be all place to learn and develop. This is especially so for a position that could take more time.

The way the AHL schedule plays out there isn't a lot of time to put in extra work on the ice and get hands on inistruction. He's probably better off and if/when he comes back to the US he could be a lot closer to being an NHL player than an AHL player.

Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Jul 16 @ 12:06 PM ET
You want a really good comparable for Keith? Niklas Lidstrom was still arguably the best defenseman in the game at age 37-38. 3-4 years past where Keith is now.

He's a bigger guy than Keith, had as many "hard miles," but stylistically pretty darn similar. And while arguably a slightly better defenseman, Keith is right there.

Scott Neidermayer, another really good comparable for Keith, he still had a lot left at 34-35.

So I would just hold off on the post-mortems for Keith, unless, a remote possibility, that knee issue is degenerative. Then, different discussion. But were that the case, I think the Hawks would have known it, or worried about it, and at least shopped Keith this offseason. Didn't happen.

- John Jaeckel


Unless Keith loses his fast twitch speed to a great extent and starts to become injury prone he can easily have 4-5 years of quality hockey left. Ducks won the cup with Niedermayer and Pronger playing about 30 mins a game and they were both older than Keith now.
Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Jul 16 @ 12:08 PM ET
Agreed and let me add, a guy can have a fantastic prospect camp and be completely lost when pro camp is done. (See: Garlock, Kojevnikov, Makarov, etc)

Will also tell you this, I have a hunch Debrincat will shine in prospect camp—the hype will get (frank)ing bugpoop crazy—and that alone will put a bigger target on his back in pro camp. Then it gets interesting.

- John Jaeckel


Correct and if Debrincat doesn't shine in prospect camp...Probably best to take him off the list of possibilities as a contributor this season.

His vision should stand out and his ability to be a step ahead of most this week should be obvious.
Marlowe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wild Wild West, IL
Joined: 06.29.2014

Jul 16 @ 12:09 PM ET
I read where Fortin has some sort of injury and will not be on the ice for this week's prospect camp. Hopefully nothing serious, and he can make some noise during the Traverse City tournament or regular training camp.
- boilermaker100

The Athletic's Scott Powers reported that Fortin will not be participating on ice at prospect camp due to off season surgery which Powers' source called "not serious". More in the article here:
Offseason surgery to limit Alexandre Fortin in Blackhawks prospect camp
https://theathletic.com/7...blackhawks-prospect-camp/

BTW highly recommend spending the $ on a subscription. Great Blackhawks and hockey coverage - with TOR CBJ DET - and any other cities as they add them included in your subscription. Also all other sports in every city covered too! For the Cleveland coverage it includes OSU.
Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Jul 16 @ 12:12 PM ET
I'm more confident Keith returns to form than Johnny, though those odds aren't favorable. Without DK at a high level, we're a bubble team or one and done come playoff time. Toews' (my favorite player) decline has been steady and consistent. Saad may help, but our captain is not a difference maker as he once was. If we get a TRUE bounce-back season from No. 19, I would be ecstatic. I just think it's highly unlikely.
- Lysiak


You could make the agrument #19's offenisve stats will better reflect a 2nd line center than a first, but that isn't a reason to be too down. In some ways that was what Toews was except he always could defend and play in every situation.

What I would be more concerned with is his ability to cover the top line center on an opposing team. Because that probably is too much to ask of Anisimov.
6628
Joined: 08.24.2009

Jul 16 @ 12:23 PM ET
You want a really good comparable for Keith? Niklas Lidstrom was still arguably the best defenseman in the game at age 37-38. 3-4 years past where Keith is now.

He's a bigger guy than Keith, had as many "hard miles," but stylistically pretty darn similar. And while arguably a slightly better defenseman, Keith is right there.

Scott Neidermayer, another really good comparable for Keith, he still had a lot left at 34-35.

So I would just hold off on the post-mortems for Keith, unless, a remote possibility, that knee issue is degenerative. Then, different discussion. But were that the case, I think the Hawks would have known it, or worried about it, and at least shopped Keith this offseason. Didn't happen.

- John Jaeckel



Have to disagree JJ, Lidstrom and Neidermayer had much longer strides than Keith. They were smoother skaters and got much more out of a stride than Keith. They were taller so physically they were more capable of a longer stride. I think it would be a fact that in a game Keith takes at least twice as many strides as those other guys, which to me says he works twice as hard. Quicker, better moving laterally sure, but as smooth not a chance. So I think he has a lot more miles on him at the same age than Lidstrom & Neidermeyer.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Jul 16 @ 12:36 PM ET
There's probably a really simple answer, but what is the reason for Rutta not being at prospect camp this week? IIRC, wasn't Kempny at prospect camp a year ago? Maybe I'm wrong. Regardless, just feel that camp could be a good way for Rutta to demonstrate what he can do on North American ice.
Hawkytalk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Frankfort, IL
Joined: 06.26.2012

Jul 16 @ 12:44 PM ET
I'm more confident Keith returns to form than Johnny, though those odds aren't favorable. Without DK at a high level, we're a bubble team or one and done come playoff time. Toews' (my favorite player) decline has been steady and consistent. Saad may help, but our captain is not a difference maker as he once was. If we get a TRUE bounce-back season from No. 19, I would be ecstatic. I just think it's highly unlikely.
- Lysiak


Well, he had some flash back games in the middle of the season with Panik and Schmaltz...... they were dominant and 19 was himself during that time frame..... but he slowly regressed to mediocrity after that and never recaptured that burst. I'm thinking that his back injury had something to do with it. We can all only hope that the time off, any rehab he had in the offseason, and Saad's addition will bring him back to form. Without 19 at top form, this team is destined to be a bubble team.
93Joe
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.09.2015

Jul 16 @ 12:46 PM ET
Have to disagree JJ, Lidstrom and Neidermayer had much longer strides than Keith. They were smoother skaters and got much more out of a stride than Keith. They were taller so physically they were more capable of a longer stride. I think it would be a fact that in a game Keith takes at least twice as many strides as those other guys, which to me says he works twice as hard. Quicker, better moving laterally sure, but as smooth not a chance. So I think he has a lot more miles on him at the same age than Lidstrom & Neidermeyer.
- 6628

Probably one of my top 3 favorite players. And the IQ on Lidstrom was off the charts. One of the smartest defensemen I've ever watched.
Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Jul 16 @ 12:48 PM ET
Well, they certainly weren't the last two years. There's no question bout that.

All that said, both played a lot of hockey and didn't get much rest/training time the last two offseasons, both took fairly serious injuries over the last 12 months (Keith/knee, Toews/back).

Toews is 29. Keith is 34 (today!).

If either or both come in fully rested, rehabbed and ready—and there's no guarantee of that except the added time and focus this offseason—there's literally no reason to think either are done or even fully past their primes.

Toews is 29, talented, a prodigious trainer.

Sure, Keith is getting long in the tooth, but he is also documented off the charts athletically, a la a Nolan Ryan.

Here's the other thing, like I say, could be you're right, but the Hawks have NOT gone there yet.

If Bowman, on the advice of Hawk doctors and trainers and coaches and scouts, thought either or both of these guys were done or fully on the decline, then I believe the trades this summer would have been a lot more dramatic.


Put another way, they could deal Keith, right now, for a King's Ransom at his ability and cap hit and term. Same with Kane. Toews? Meh, there's an argument there. But . . .

They are, and have been, along with Kane, the engines of this team. And no one the Hawks currently hold rights to can replace that, now or in the future. No one. Not DeBrincat, not Forsling, not close.

If/when one of these three guys is truly done or THAT declined, then you will likely see some very big "rebuilding" type moves.

Could be as soon as next summer if your opinion is accurate. But, trust me, the Hawks, who probably have the best info. and assessment of where these guys truly are physically, don't seem to be in agreement. if they were, like I said, there would have been bigger changes this summer.

- John Jaeckel


When there is a very long list of replacments at $5.5 mill per year or less than maybe they will debate keeping Keith...I don't think that time is around the corner unless Keith wants out.



Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Jul 16 @ 12:50 PM ET
Have to disagree JJ, Lidstrom and Neidermayer had much longer strides than Keith. They were smoother skaters and got much more out of a stride than Keith. They were taller so physically they were more capable of a longer stride. I think it would be a fact that in a game Keith takes at least twice as many strides as those other guys, which to me says he works twice as hard. Quicker, better moving laterally sure, but as smooth not a chance. So I think he has a lot more miles on him at the same age than Lidstrom & Neidermeyer.
- 6628


Smooth was Niedermayer no doubt and from a skating standpoint a better comp is Nick Leddy. That's not to stay Keith's engine isn't stronger...
Bjm84
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 03.29.2013

Jul 16 @ 12:51 PM ET
Have to disagree JJ, Lidstrom and Neidermayer had much longer strides than Keith. They were smoother skaters and got much more out of a stride than Keith. They were taller so physically they were more capable of a longer stride. I think it would be a fact that in a game Keith takes at least twice as many strides as those other guys, which to me says he works twice as hard. Quicker, better moving laterally sure, but as smooth not a chance. So I think he has a lot more miles on him at the same age than Lidstrom & Neidermeyer.
- 6628


Much longer strides? Keith is 6-6'1ish, Neidermeyer was 6'1 and Lindstrom 6'2.

THis is not significant in the way your describing.
steve-hist-sdc
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 12.30.2016

Jul 16 @ 1:11 PM ET
Keith is listed as 6 1 on the NHL site. Not agreeing or disagreeing with the post that was quoted - got no idea - think Keith is a different breed of guy as you can see his forward origins when he plays (specifically when he reverses the flow in his own end).
6628
Joined: 08.24.2009

Jul 16 @ 1:26 PM ET
Much longer strides? Keith is 6-6'1ish, Neidermeyer was 6'1 and Lindstrom 6'2.

THis is not significant in the way your describing.

- Bjm84



If Keith is 6'6 ish I'll eat your shorts
6628
Joined: 08.24.2009

Jul 16 @ 1:27 PM ET
Probably one of my top 3 favorite players. And the IQ on Lidstrom was off the charts. One of the smartest defensemen I've ever watched.
- 93Joe



Agree, the guy was automatic.
Lysiak
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: New York, NY
Joined: 07.15.2017

Jul 16 @ 1:29 PM ET
You could make the agrument #19's offenisve stats will better reflect a 2nd line center than a first, but that isn't a reason to be too down. In some ways that was what Toews was except he always could defend and play in every situation.

What I would be more concerned with is his ability to cover the top line center on an opposing team. Because that probably is too much to ask of Anisimov.

- Al


That's very true regarding his point production. You astutely mention the critical aspect of Toews' role has been his ability to match up with elite centers, and not just as a shutdown. He could neutralize AND score big goals, re: against Gretzlaf. That was his last dominant playoff run, and it was of course decisive, as was DK's otherwordly efforts. Of late, Johnny struggles to even neutralize. Though he'll always be a 200 ft. player with that tenacious mentality, he struggles to be as effective on both ends as he was. I'd settle for 55 pts if he can regain his overall game swagger!
Al
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: , IL
Joined: 08.11.2006

Jul 16 @ 1:30 PM ET
Much longer strides? Keith is 6-6'1ish, Neidermeyer was 6'1 and Lindstrom 6'2.

THis is not significant in the way your describing.

- Bjm84


Size isn't the only factor-Keith is a more choppy skater compared to other 2.
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