Well, your analysis is wrong on every front.

Nurse hasn't reached the level of a top-4 Dman yet, but produced very solid results on the bottom pairing last year. I think his ceiling is that of a 25-35 point, 3-4 D with a varied kit and it's about 2 years too soon to judge whether or not he achieved that. His status as a bust depends on how high one's expectations of him were in the first place. If people thought he was a lock at a Chris Pronger or even an Alex Pietrangelo, than they're free to call him a bust (and to continue being stupid enough to project that).

Kassian was an excellent bottom-6 forward last year producing 1.74 P/60 (a number that would place him 7th on the Jets) while playing with a revolving door of linemates and seeing minimal time with McDavid or Draisaitl. He's fast, physically imposing, surprisingly has breakaway speed and kills penalties. He's everything you should want out of a bottom-6 forward.

Russell is too divisive of a topic for me to get into again so I'll just say you're wrong in calling him an offensive Dman. He was in the WHL and had a couple seasons of offensive success in the NHL, but has largely been tasked with and performed reasonably as a matchup Dman. This likely runs counter to your opinion so, if you'd like me to elaborate, I can repost an argument I posted a month ago on this very topic.
- MaximumBone

You're a marginally smart guy, but you waste too many words on the stupidest of idiots. They don't deserve your efforts.

You're a marginally smart guy, but you waste too many words on the stupidest of idiots. They don't deserve your efforts.
- Larsson_fan

That's the greatest compliment I've ever been given

That's the greatest compliment I've ever been given
- MaximumBone

You're probably smarter than I get be you credit for, but you try a wee bit too hard to come across as such. It's wasteful on these threads.

You're probably smarter than I get be you credit for, but you try a wee bit too hard to come across as such. It's wasteful on these threads.
- Larsson_fan

Dat doesnt heven make cents!!!!

Cant consintrait? You got a iron inn your ass or wat?

Dat doesnt heven make cents!!!!

Cant consintrait? You got a iron inn your ass or wat?
- Frowns

(frank) off!!!

Well, your analysis is wrong on every front.

Nurse hasn't reached the level of a top-4 Dman yet, but produced very solid results on the bottom pairing last year. I think his ceiling is that of a 25-35 point, 3-4 D with a varied kit and it's about 2 years too soon to judge whether or not he achieved that. His status as a bust depends on how high one's expectations of him were in the first place. If people thought he was a lock at a Chris Pronger or even an Alex Pietrangelo, than they're free to call him a bust (and to continue being stupid enough to project that).

Kassian was an excellent bottom-6 forward last year producing 1.74 P/60 (a number that would place him 7th on the Jets) while playing with a revolving door of linemates and seeing minimal time with McDavid or Draisaitl. He's fast, physically imposing, surprisingly has breakaway speed and kills penalties. He's everything you should want out of a bottom-6 forward.

Russell is too divisive of a topic for me to get into again so I'll just say you're wrong in calling him an offensive Dman. He was in the WHL and had a couple seasons of offensive success in the NHL, but has largely been tasked with and performed reasonably as a matchup Dman. This likely runs counter to your opinion so, if you'd like me to elaborate, I can repost an argument I posted a month ago on this very topic.
- MaximumBone

Nurse hasn't reached the level of 7th spare dman yet. He legitimately brings nothing to the table, and he's a 22 year old whom hasn't developed underperforming in a league where the average players prime is 24/25-29. He's a bust.

Russell is possibly the worst "shutdown" guy in the league, as Edmonton gets absolutely caved in whenever he's on the ice. He slows down the offence, doubles the shots against, and generally gets hemmed in his own zone.

Kassian is just bad. He just it. He produces as a byproduct of undeserved ice time with skilled players, and contributes nothing but penalties and perceived "intimidation". Maroon isn't great, but at least he can score while he "intimidates".

(frank) off!!!
- Larsson_fan

Suk hit!

Suck it JERRRROOOOOO

Nurse hasn't reached the level of 7th spare dman yet. He legitimately brings nothing to the table, and he's a 22 year old whom hasn't developed underperforming in a league where the average players prime is 24/25-29. He's a bust.

Russell is possibly the worst "shutdown" guy in the league, as Edmonton gets absolutely caved in whenever he's on the ice. He slows down the offence, doubles the shots against, and generally gets hemmed in his own zone.

Kassian is just bad. He just it. He produces as a byproduct of undeserved ice time with skilled players, and contributes nothing but penalties and perceived "intimidation". Maroon isn't great, but at least he can score while he "intimidates".
- Rexypoo

You dont watch Oilers games. This is evident. Yet you talk like you do. You dont know poop from wild honey or your bumhole from a hole in the ground.
(frank) off,Idiot!!!!

You dont watch Oilers games. This is evident. Yet you talk like you do. You dont know poop from wild honey or your bumhole from a hole in the ground.
(frank) off,Idiot!!!!
- Larsson_fan

Dis is the intirnet. Y wurry about wat he say's? U seam upset.

Suck it JERRRROOOOOO
- smellmyfinger

Suk hit long hand hard Gero!!!

First!!!

Suck it, Jero!!!

Dis is the intirnet. Y wurry about wat he say's? U seam upset.
- Frowns

Yeah....I should smoke a doobie or something.

Nurse hasn't reached the level of 7th spare dman yet. He legitimately brings nothing to the table, and he's a 22 year old whom hasn't developed underperforming in a league where the average players prime is 24/25-29. He's a bust.

Russell is possibly the worst "shutdown" guy in the league, as Edmonton gets absolutely caved in whenever he's on the ice. He slows down the offence, doubles the shots against, and generally gets hemmed in his own zone.

Kassian is just bad. He just it. He produces as a byproduct of undeserved ice time with skilled players, and contributes nothing but penalties and perceived "intimidation". Maroon isn't great, but at least he can score while he "intimidates".
- Rexypoo

Oh, this'll be fun.

Nurse produced 0.81 pts/60 (numbers comparable to guys like Dumba, Zaitsev, Rielly, Petry, Schlemko and Seabrook) for 11 points in 44 games (prorates to 20 points over 82 games) and maintained a CF% of 51%. His offense suffered when paired with Gryba (1A in 288mins) during the first half of the year, but saw a MAJOR uptick once paired with Matt Benning (3G and 1A in 246mins). All this in a league where Dmen often don't see their peaks until 24-27. Again, if you expected so much more, then you set YOURSELF up for disappointment. Being a bust is relative to your expectations.

On Kassian, I already mentioned that he saw minimal ice time with Draisaitl or McDavid (67mins and 38mins respectively) and yet you seemed to completely skim past that part. Are Mark Letestu (314:57mins together) or Benoit Pouliot (287:01mins together) supposed to be "skilled" players? As for playing with Nuge, they saw 217:47 of ice time together and they actually produced fewer pts/60 than Kassian did with Letestu.

As for his Corsi, it took a substantial hit when he was tasked with playing with a struggling Nuge and Pouliot early in the year. When Draisaitl moved to RW with McDavid, Letestu slid up into the 3C slot to play with Kassian and saw healthy bumps up to 49.2% CF and a 55% GF. The fact of the matter is that they outscored their opponents handily without relying on unrepeatable percentages. No matter what your assertion was to call him "bad", but you're wrong either way. He's a VERY capable bottom-6 guy who- as you happen to mention in passing- saw very good results in a brief trial with skill (6.25 GF/60 with McDavid).

As for Russell, here's a copy n paste from a month ago:

To examine Russell, I'll use the last 4 years as my sample size as this is the time in which he's been used as a top-4 Dman.

As you know, Corsi For (CF%) is the most popular method of "advanced analysis" as it offers a pretty general picture of how many shot attempts a player is on for. It has a number of weaknesses and is in my opinion an awful gauge for a judging a single player. Russell's CF% over the past 4 years average out to 44.4%. 46.4% last year, 45.3% a year ago, 43% 2 years ago and 43.5% 3 years ago.

Goals For (GF%) is pretty self-explanatory. Percentage of goals for a player's team when he's on the ice. Russell's has been 51.2% over the past 4 years. 54.7% last year, 47.7% the year prior, 56.1% 2 years prior and 46.1% the 3rd year prior.

Those alone paint the picture of an awful Dman that had two lucky years in either on-ice shooting % or on-ice save %. But there's more.

Fenwick For (FF%) is simply Corsi that removes the blocked shot attempts and thus eliminates the penalties that players like Russell suffer as a result of using one of their skills (shot blocking). Russell's FF% over the past 4 years have been 49.2% last year, 47.4% a year ago, 44.1% 2 years ago and 45.9% 3 years ago.

Considering that he played on some pretty awful Calgary teams during those 3 years, the uptick from last year should come as no surprise. Considering his role as a member of one of two consistent shutdown pairings (35% of his time against Elites as per the WoodMoneys), I'd argue that a 49.2% FF is actually a pretty solid number.

Now, to reapproach that goals for % stats from another angle and to tackle the "luck" argument that rightfully comes up when high on-ice %s are achieved, I wish to point to Russell's GF% relative to his team. For this I'll extend all the way back to his rookie year for a larger sample size.

Russell GF%/Team GF% (Difference)

2016-17: 54.7%/53.8% (+0.9%)
2015-16: 47.7%/48.4% (-0.7%)
2014-15: 56.1%/44.6% (+11.5%)
2013-14: 46.1%/42.4% (+3.7%)
2012-13: 54.8%/48.2% (+6.6%)
2011-12: 59.7%/51.6% (+8.1%)
2010-11: 47.5%/47.2% (+0.3%)
2009-10: 54.3%/42.1% (+12.3%)
2008-09: 48%/54.5% (-6.5%)
2007-08: 40%/47.2% (-7.2%)

I left the years from 2007-09 into this calculation for the sake of transparency of debate and to show that I wasn't avoiding them intentionally, but I believe they are statistically insignificant when faced with the rest of his career. As they are his first two years in the league, it's fair to assume an adjustment period.

With that in mind, as you can see here, Russell has consistently outperformed his teammates in GF% metric (a stat that I value highly over large samples like this) throughout his career. Regardless of where he's playing on the roster, he consistently shows better results in the most important category than his teammates. He is EVIDENTLY doing something right.

For one final point, I don't believe his GA/60 totals will stay anywhere near as low as they were last year. He's due for some regression to the mean in on-ice save % (from a gaudy 93.8% closer to his average of around 92%) but I also foresee an increase in his on-ice shooting % (from 7.5% closer to his career average of around 8.5%). We are likely to see a decline in his results this coming year overall, but likely not enough for me to say he isn't still a capable top-4 Dman.

TL;DR I don't think Russell is nearly as bad as many "analytics" folks say as I believe they misuse and isolate singular metrics like Corsi without recognizing or presenting context. In my opinion, he's a capable 2nd pairing Dman who is ideally a #5.

Not a perfect argument, but covers the bases enough. However, as the foundation for many of your points seems to be Corsi, I'll assume you're a tad early in your exploration of possession statistics and thus not likely to be open to considering differing viewpoints on a guy like Russell.


Flavourtown; welcome to it

Oh, this'll be fun.

Nurse produced 0.81 pts/60 (numbers comparable to guys like Dumba, Zaitsev, Rielly, Petry, Schlemko and Seabrook) for 11 points in 44 games (prorates to 20 points over 82 games) and maintained a CF% of 51%. His offense suffered when paired with Gryba (1A in 288mins) during the first half of the year, but saw a MAJOR uptick once paired with Matt Benning (3G and 1A in 246mins). All this in a league where Dmen often don't see their peaks until 24-27. Again, if you expected so much more, then you set YOURSELF up for disappointment. Being a bust is relative to your expectations.

On Kassian, I already mentioned that he saw minimal ice time with Draisaitl or McDavid (67mins and 38mins respectively) and yet you seemed to completely skim past that part. Are Mark Letestu (314:57mins together) or Benoit Pouliot (287:01mins together) supposed to be "skilled" players? As for playing with Nuge, they saw 217:47 of ice time together and they actually produced fewer pts/60 than Kassian did with Letestu.

As for his Corsi, it took a substantial hit when he was tasked with playing with a struggling Nuge and Pouliot early in the year. When Draisaitl moved to RW with McDavid, Letestu slid up into the 3C slot to play with Kassian and saw healthy bumps up to 49.2% CF and a 55% GF. The fact of the matter is that they outscored their opponents handily without relying on unrepeatable percentages. No matter what your assertion was to call him "bad", but you're wrong either way. He's a VERY capable bottom-6 guy who- as you happen to mention in passing- saw very good results in a brief trial with skill (6.25 GF/60 with McDavid).

As for Russell, here's a copy n paste from a month ago:



Not a perfect argument, but covers the bases enough. However, as the foundation for many of your points seems to be Corsi, I'll assume you're a tad early in your exploration of possession statistics and thus not likely to be open to considering differing viewpoints on a guy like Russell.


Flavourtown; welcome to it


- MaximumBone

Nurse is a bust

Russel is an offensive dman

Kassian gets a ton of ice time with our best players




As if someone states any of these things while also claiming they have the first clue what they're talking about


Not even worth debating

Nurse is a bust

Russel is an offensive dman

Kassian gets a ton of ice time with our best players




As if someone states any of these things while also claiming they have the first clue what they're talking about


Not even worth debating
- HB77

https://public.tableau.co...HFZMC6?:display_count=yes

These two aren't exactly... well, good. They're both horrendous.
Nurse IS a bust.
Russell spent most of his career only being good at moving the puck, only to lose that ability with age.
Kassian is literally the worst Oilers forward.

https://public.tableau.co...HFZMC6?:display_count=yes

These two aren't exactly... well, good. They're both horrendous.
Nurse IS a bust.
Russell spent most of his career only being good at moving the puck, only to lose that ability with age.
Kassian is literally the worst Oilers forward.
- Rexypoo

Is fetal alcohol syndrome physically painful or does it just affect your thoughts? I'm trying to judge the level of sympathy I should give you.

https://public.tableau.co...HFZMC6?:display_count=yes

These two aren't exactly... well, good. They're both horrendous.
Nurse IS a bust.
Russell spent most of his career only being good at moving the puck, only to lose that ability with age.
Kassian is literally the worst Oilers forward.
- Rexypoo

Ah, you use HERO Charts as not only the basis, but the entirety of your argument? That at least explains why you have such a warped and narrow view.

Nurse is a bust

Russel is an offensive dman

Kassian gets a ton of ice time with our best players




As if someone states any of these things while also claiming they have the first clue what they're talking about


Not even worth debating
- HB77

Nope. He's a moron.

Next!

Why the hell would Vegas give Reinhart a two year one way deal

You're a marginally smart guy, but you waste too many words on the stupidest of idiots. They don't deserve your efforts.
- Larsson_fan

This is what I want to say to you most of the time when you take your act on the road.

Another quality Blog from RC....

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=53357
- Larsson_fan

You used to be a season ticket holder?

Matt Henderson: Jero Appears Set to Suck It
- Matt_Henderson